Art Charles
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | INTLCharros de Ja… | 113 | .204/.339/.419 | 4 | 0 | 115 | — | |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 274 | .245/.351/.489 | 13 | 0 | 81 | — | .204/.275/.400 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 327 | .270/.421/.531 | 18 | 0 | 150 | — | .294/.360/.540 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 19 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 142 | 123 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 48 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 244 | 336 | 431 | 767 | 187 | 356 | 34 | 11 | 337 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 299 | 250 | 60 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 89 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 356 | 468 | 824 | 228 | 318 | 30 | 13 | 361 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 123 | 85 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 467 | 576 | 1.044 | 341 | 298 | 27 | 27 | 448 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 513 | 442 | 111 | 34 | 2 | 11 | 58 | 125 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 251 | 345 | 412 | 756 | 161 | 318 | 24 | 11 | 335 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 499 | 446 | 102 | 25 | 4 | 19 | 44 | 156 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 305 | 430 | 736 | 202 | 302 | 31 | 9 | 323 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 329 | 289 | 62 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 100 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 306 | 367 | 673 | 152 | 295 | 30 | 12 | 302 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 113 | 93 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 204 | 339 | 419 | 759 | 215 | 283 | 33 | 17 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Vaqueros Union Laguna | — | 116 | 94 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 351 | 474 | 777 | 1.251 | 426 | 377 | 20 | 19 | 523 | 164 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 122 | 108 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 252 | 287 | 539 | 111 | 258 | 34 | 9 | 242 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | INTL | Caneros de los Mochis | — | 36 | 31 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 278 | 323 | 600 | 161 | 286 | 44 | 14 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Leones de Yucatan | — | 141 | 116 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 328 | 439 | 621 | 1.060 | 293 | 397 | 26 | 16 | 452 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | INTL | Algodoneros de Guasave | — | 186 | 140 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 408 | 457 | 865 | 236 | 253 | 25 | 23 | 385 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 142 | 129 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 69 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 155 | 221 | 279 | 500 | 124 | 272 | 49 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 299 | 264 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 126 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 155 | 244 | 303 | 547 | 148 | 236 | 42 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 123 | 97 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 155 | 328 | 381 | 709 | 227 | 212 | 38 | 17 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 513 | 464 | 94 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 166 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 203 | 267 | 338 | 606 | 136 | 272 | 32 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 499 | 456 | 76 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 216 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 232 | 305 | 537 | 138 | 265 | 43 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 329 | 305 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 115 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 239 | 302 | 540 | 118 | 263 | 35 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Vaqueros Union Laguna | — | 116 | 101 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 277 | 371 | 604 | 975 | 327 | 306 | 24 | 13 | 411 | 164 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 122 | 112 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 185 | 205 | 390 | 71 | 222 | 43 | 6 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Leones de Yucatan | — | 141 | 126 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 360 | 540 | 899 | 246 | 358 | 30 | 9 | 396 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 142 | 129 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 69 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 155 | 221 | 279 | 500 | 124 | 288 | 49 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Blue Jays | — | 142 | 123 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 48 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 244 | 336 | 431 | 767 | 187 | 356 | 34 | 11 | 337 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 299 | 264 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 126 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 155 | 244 | 303 | 547 | 148 | 246 | 42 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 299 | 250 | 60 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 89 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 356 | 468 | 824 | 228 | 318 | 30 | 13 | 361 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 123 | 97 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 155 | 328 | 381 | 709 | 227 | 217 | 38 | 17 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 123 | 85 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 33 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 467 | 576 | 1.044 | 341 | 298 | 27 | 27 | 448 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 513 | 464 | 94 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 166 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 203 | 267 | 338 | 606 | 136 | 281 | 32 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A RAW | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 513 | 442 | 111 | 34 | 2 | 11 | 58 | 125 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 251 | 345 | 412 | 756 | 161 | 318 | 24 | 11 | 335 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 499 | 456 | 76 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 216 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 232 | 305 | 537 | 138 | 273 | 43 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 499 | 446 | 102 | 25 | 4 | 19 | 44 | 156 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 305 | 430 | 736 | 202 | 302 | 31 | 9 | 323 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 329 | 305 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 115 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 239 | 302 | 540 | 118 | 269 | 35 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 329 | 289 | 62 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 100 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 306 | 367 | 673 | 152 | 295 | 30 | 12 | 302 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | INTL MLE | Charros de Jalisco | — | 113 | 93 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 204 | 339 | 419 | 759 | 215 | 283 | 33 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | INTL RAW | Charros de Jalisco | — | 113 | 93 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 204 | 339 | 419 | 759 | 215 | 283 | 33 | 17 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 274 | 246 | 51 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 280 | 407 | 687 | 199 | 280 | 34 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 274 | 233 | 57 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 38 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 351 | 489 | 840 | 245 | 312 | 30 | 14 | 366 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 293 | 85 | 16 | 0 | 19 | 27 | 98 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 290 | 356 | 539 | 895 | 249 | 367 | 30 | 8 | 396 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 327 | 256 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 18 | 64 | 82 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 270 | 421 | 531 | 952 | 262 | 319 | 25 | 20 | 414 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 142 | 130 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 69 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 154 | 221 | 277 | 498 | 123 | 272 | 49 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 299 | 266 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 126 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 244 | 301 | 545 | 147 | 236 | 42 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 123 | 97 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 155 | 328 | 381 | 709 | 227 | 212 | 38 | 17 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 513 | 467 | 94 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 36 | 166 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 201 | 267 | 336 | 604 | 135 | 272 | 32 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 499 | 457 | 76 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 216 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 232 | 304 | 536 | 138 | 265 | 43 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 329 | 304 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 115 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 239 | 303 | 541 | 118 | 263 | 35 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 274 | 247 | 51 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 280 | 405 | 685 | 198 | 263 | 34 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 327 | 294 | 85 | 16 | 0 | 19 | 27 | 98 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 356 | 537 | 893 | 248 | 358 | 30 | 8 | 396 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2619 | 2347 | 457 | 119 | 11 | 80 | 219 | 968 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 195 | 270 | 357 | 627 | 162 | 284 | 37 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -118 | -2 | +0 | -47 | +57 | -11.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 114 | 30 | 3 | 20 | 54 | 240 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 196 | 271 | 361 | 631 | 165 | 286 | 37 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -29 | -0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAALeones de Yucatan · 141 PAwOBA .437 → .396 (−41)K% 25.5% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.53% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.06% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 8.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.50% | ÷0.992 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 25.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.75% | ÷0.910 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 7.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.25% | ÷0.792 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 9.77% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 58, 1B 98, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .437 → .396; ISO .293 → .275; BABIP .397 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AABiloxi Shuckers · 122 PAwOBA .240 → .175 (−64)K% 34.4% → 43.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.43% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.02% | ÷1.035 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 5.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 14.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 8.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.393 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.70% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 83, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .240 → .175; ISO .111 → .075; BABIP .258 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAVaqueros Union Laguna · 116 PAwOBA .508 → .411 (−96)K% 19.8% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.83% | ÷0.993 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.10% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 12.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.72% | ÷1.039 | ×0.930 | ×0.953 | ×1.003 | 16.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.27% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | ×0.953 | ×1.003 | 9.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×1.003 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 14.08% | ÷0.879 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 11.25% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .508 → .411; ISO .426 → .353; BABIP .377 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAReading Fightin Phils · 329 PAwOBA .289 → .240 (−49)K% 30.4% → 35.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.40% | ÷1.060 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.73% | ÷1.029 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 17.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.47% | ÷0.949 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 7.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷1.021 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 3.23% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 112, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .289 → .240; ISO .152 → .124; BABIP .295 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Clearwater Threshers · 499 PAwOBA .316 → .237 (−80)K% 31.3% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.26% | ÷1.028 | ×1.420 | — | — | 43.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.62% | ÷0.946 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 6.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.62% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 16.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷0.965 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 8.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.38% | ÷1.128 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.55% | ÷1.056 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 5.40% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 94, 2B 93, 3B 126, K 106, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .316 → .237; ISO .202 → .144; BABIP .302 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ALakewood BlueClaws · 513 PAwOBA .331 → .264 (−67)K% 24.4% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.37% | ÷1.009 | ×1.340 | — | — | 32.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.021 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 7.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.19% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×0.990 | 17.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.73% | ÷0.988 | ×0.820 | ×0.966 | ×0.990 | 8.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.065 | ×0.940 | ×0.966 | ×0.990 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.47% | ÷0.801 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 3.52% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 113, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .331 → .264; ISO .161 → .140; BABIP .318 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKBluefield Blue Jays · 123 PAwOBA .442 → .308 (−133)K% 26.8% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.83% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 38.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 26.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.975 | 16.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.25% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.975 | 2.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.957 | ×0.975 | 9.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.957 | ×0.975 | 6.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.957 | ×0.975 | 3.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.975 | 9.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .442 → .308; ISO .341 → .258; BABIP .298 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 ROKBluefield Blue Jays · 299 PAwOBA .356 → .238 (−118)K% 29.8% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.77% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 42.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.985 | 8.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.01% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.985 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.963 | ×0.985 | 13.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.963 | ×0.985 | 7.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.963 | ×0.985 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.985 | 5.38% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .356 → .238; ISO .228 → .153; BABIP .318 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .