Alex Castellanos

PosLF

B/TR/R

Born1986-08-04

Age (2027)40

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	28	AAALas Vegas 51s	312	.314/.383/.614	16	5	87	—	.220/.280/.408
2016	29	AAACOL	185	.299/.366/.482	6	1	50	—	.194/.251/.294
2017	30	AAABAL	85	.141/.212/.256	2	0	1	—	.112/.165/.212

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2008	21	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	—	199	181	54	14	4	7	8	45	8	20	2	298	355	536	891	238	362	23	4	385	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	56	53	10	1	1	1	2	19	1	0	2	189	232	302	534	113	273	34	4	240	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	346	311	84	21	4	5	20	89	12	21	4	270	338	412	750	141	361	26	6	334	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	517	459	124	35	7	13	38	112	12	19	9	270	342	462	804	192	328	22	7	350	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	534	475	152	35	8	23	39	118	15	14	2	320	389	573	962	253	381	22	7	415	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	34	29	11	2	1	3	5	5	0	4	2	379	471	828	1.298	448	381	15	15	542	253	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	25	23	4	0	1	1	0	8	1	0	0	174	208	391	600	217	200	32	0	250	62	-1	+0	-2	-6	+1	-0.8
2012	25	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	407	344	113	25	7	17	46	85	11	16	8	328	424	590	1.014	262	390	21	11	435	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	100	85	26	5	1	4	7	24	4	0	1	306	385	529	915	224	367	24	7	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	18	18	3	1	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	167	167	389	556	222	167	28	0	237	47	-1	+0	-1	-5	+0	-0.7
2013	26	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	441	385	99	14	5	19	41	112	12	19	5	257	345	468	813	210	315	25	9	359	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	408	360	99	25	5	8	37	105	6	8	5	275	352	439	791	164	365	26	9	349	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	66	60	16	5	0	3	5	20	0	1	0	267	323	500	823	233	342	30	8	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	312	280	88	32	2	16	24	73	7	5	0	314	383	614	997	300	375	23	8	429	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	185	164	49	10	1	6	13	59	5	1	0	299	366	482	848	183	426	32	7	371	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	85	78	11	3	0	2	5	24	2	0	0	141	212	256	468	115	173	28	6	216	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	43	41	7	1	1	2	0	13	1	0	0	171	190	390	581	220	185	30	0	244	52	-2	+0	-3	-11	+1	-1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2008	21	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	199	184	38	9	3	5	5	64	8	20	2	207	259	370	628	163	272	32	3	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	56	53	8	1	1	1	2	27	1	0	2	151	196	264	461	113	247	48	4	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	346	318	66	15	3	4	13	121	12	21	4	208	265	311	577	104	313	35	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	517	472	102	32	5	11	25	163	12	19	9	216	273	375	648	159	293	32	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	534	490	127	29	6	18	24	140	15	14	2	259	314	453	767	194	318	26	4	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	25	23	4	0	1	1	0	8	1	0	0	174	208	391	600	217	200	32	0	260	62	-1	+0	-2	-6	+1	-0.8
2012	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	407	357	85	16	5	13	33	117	11	16	8	238	322	420	742	182	305	29	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	18	18	3	1	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	167	167	389	556	222	167	28	0	237	47	-1	+0	-1	-5	+0	-0.7
2013	26	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	441	402	72	9	3	13	26	154	12	19	5	179	250	313	563	134	253	35	6	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	408	372	74	17	3	6	25	135	6	8	5	199	261	309	570	110	287	33	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	312	287	63	22	1	10	17	96	7	5	0	220	280	408	687	188	290	31	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	185	170	33	6	1	3	8	80	5	1	0	194	251	294	545	100	325	43	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	85	80	9	2	0	2	3	29	2	0	0	113	165	212	377	100	146	34	4	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	199	184	38	9	3	5	5	64	8	20	2	207	259	370	628	163	284	32	3	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	—	199	181	54	14	4	7	8	45	8	20	2	298	355	536	891	238	362	23	4	385	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	402	371	73	16	4	4	15	148	13	21	6	197	253	294	547	97	312	37	4	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	402	364	94	22	5	6	22	108	13	21	6	258	323	396	719	137	349	27	5	321	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	517	472	102	32	5	11	25	163	12	19	9	216	273	375	648	159	301	32	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	A+ RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	517	459	124	35	7	13	38	112	12	19	9	270	342	462	804	192	328	22	7	350	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	568	522	135	31	6	19	26	149	15	18	4	259	313	450	763	192	323	26	5	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	568	504	163	37	9	26	44	123	15	18	4	323	394	587	982	264	381	22	8	423	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	532	464	110	20	8	17	41	154	16	16	9	237	321	425	745	188	309	29	8	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	532	452	143	30	9	22	53	117	16	16	9	316	407	569	975	252	377	22	10	417	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	459	420	75	10	3	14	26	159	12	19	5	179	247	317	563	138	247	35	6	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	459	403	102	15	5	20	41	117	12	19	5	253	338	464	802	211	308	25	9	354	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	474	433	87	20	4	7	29	157	6	9	5	201	261	314	575	113	294	33	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	474	420	115	30	5	11	42	125	6	9	5	274	348	448	796	174	362	26	9	349	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	312	287	63	22	1	10	17	96	7	5	0	220	280	408	687	188	291	31	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AAA RAW	Las Vegas 51s	—	312	280	88	32	2	16	24	73	7	5	0	314	383	614	997	300	375	23	8	429	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	185	170	33	6	1	3	8	80	5	1	0	194	251	294	545	100	337	43	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	185	164	49	10	1	6	13	59	5	1	0	299	366	482	848	183	426	32	7	371	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	85	80	9	2	0	2	3	29	2	0	0	113	165	212	377	100	143	34	4	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	—	85	78	11	3	0	2	5	24	2	0	0	141	212	256	468	115	173	28	6	216	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	199	184	38	9	3	5	5	64	8	20	2	207	259	370	628	163	272	32	3	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	402	371	73	16	4	4	15	148	13	21	6	197	253	294	547	97	304	37	4	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	517	475	102	32	5	11	25	163	12	19	9	215	273	373	646	158	293	32	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	568	522	135	31	6	19	26	149	15	18	4	259	313	450	763	192	318	26	5	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	532	470	110	20	8	17	41	154	16	16	9	234	321	419	740	185	299	29	8	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	459	418	75	10	3	14	26	159	12	19	5	179	247	318	565	139	250	35	6	253	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	474	436	87	20	4	7	29	157	6	9	5	200	261	312	573	112	287	33	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	312	285	63	22	1	10	17	96	7	5	0	221	280	411	690	189	290	31	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	185	170	33	6	1	3	8	80	5	1	0	194	251	294	545	100	325	43	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	85	80	9	2	0	2	3	29	2	0	0	113	165	212	377	100	146	34	4	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	43	41	7	1	1	2	0	13	1	0	0	171	190	390	581	220	185	30	0	244	74	-2	+0	-3	-11	+1	-1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	620	105	15	15	30	0	197	15	0	0	169	189	387	576	218	184	30	0	244	74	-37	+0	-45	-161	+14	-23.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3733	3403	725	168	35	92	195	1199	96	128	40	213	275	364	639	151	296	32	5	277	74	-2	+0	-3	-11	+1	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	126	29	6	16	34	209	17	22	7	212	275	363	638	150	295	32	5	277	74	-37	+0	-45	-161	+14	-23.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAANorfolk Tides · 85 PAwOBA .211 → .169 (−42)K% 28.2% → 34.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.24%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	34.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷0.948	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.12%
HBP% /PA	2.35%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	2.13%
Singles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.989	×0.930	×0.974	×0.962	9.78%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.001	×0.830	×0.974	×0.962	4.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.974	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷0.866	×0.840	—	×0.962	3.46%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 98, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .211 → .169; ISO .115 → .095; BABIP .173 → .146. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 185 PAwOBA .363 → .242 (−121)K% 31.9% → 43.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.89%	÷0.948	×1.290	—	—	43.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.49%	÷1.083	×0.710	—	×0.972	4.13%
HBP% /PA	2.70%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	2.57%
Singles /BIP	30.48%	÷1.032	×0.900	×0.954	×0.972	24.64%
Doubles /BIP	9.52%	÷1.050	×0.810	×0.954	×0.972	6.81%
Triples /BIP	0.95%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.954	×0.972	0.62%
Home runs /BIP	5.71%	÷1.202	×0.780	—	×0.972	3.60%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 106, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .363 → .242; ISO .183 → .106; BABIP .426 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAALas Vegas 51s · 312 PAwOBA .418 → .297 (−121)K% 23.4% → 30.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.40%	÷0.977	×1.290	—	—	30.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.010	×0.710	—	×0.982	5.31%
HBP% /PA	2.24%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	2.16%
Singles /BIP	18.36%	÷0.983	×0.900	×0.950	×0.982	15.68%
Doubles /BIP	15.46%	÷1.042	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	11.21%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷1.061	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	7.73%	÷1.099	×0.780	—	×0.982	5.39%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 112, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .418 → .297; ISO .300 → .197; BABIP .375 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 408 PAwOBA .340 → .253 (−86)K% 25.7% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.74%	÷1.002	×1.290	—	—	33.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.58%	÷0.970	×0.710	—	×0.992	6.23%
HBP% /PA	1.47%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	1.43%
Singles /BIP	23.92%	÷1.018	×0.900	×0.950	×0.992	19.93%
Doubles /BIP	9.80%	÷1.068	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	7.01%
Triples /BIP	1.96%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	1.30%
Home runs /BIP	3.14%	÷0.958	×0.780	—	×0.992	2.53%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .340 → .253; ISO .164 → .115; BABIP .365 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 441 PAwOBA .348 → .254 (−95)K% 25.4% → 34.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.40%	÷0.938	×1.290	—	—	34.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.07%	÷1.071	×0.710	—	×1.003	6.03%
HBP% /PA	2.72%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	2.67%
Singles /BIP	22.34%	÷1.029	×0.900	×0.965	×1.003	18.92%
Doubles /BIP	5.13%	÷1.082	×0.810	×0.965	×1.003	3.72%
Triples /BIP	1.83%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.965	×1.003	1.25%
Home runs /BIP	6.96%	÷1.004	×0.780	—	×1.003	5.42%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 88, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .348 → .254; ISO .210 → .145; BABIP .315 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 407 PAwOBA .426 → .322 (−104)K% 20.9% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.88%	÷0.935	×1.290	—	—	28.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷0.962	×0.710	—	×1.018	8.12%
HBP% /PA	2.70%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	2.70%
Singles /BIP	24.71%	÷1.034	×0.900	×0.950	×1.018	20.79%
Doubles /BIP	9.65%	÷1.135	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	6.66%
Triples /BIP	2.70%	÷1.055	×0.810	×0.950	×1.018	2.01%
Home runs /BIP	6.56%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×1.018	5.12%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 107, 2B 127, 3B 111, K 87, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .426 → .322; ISO .262 → .186; BABIP .390 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 534 PAwOBA .405 → .328 (−78)K% 22.1% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.10%	÷1.024	×1.220	—	—	26.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.55%	÷0.981	×0.680	—	×0.998	4.53%
HBP% /PA	2.81%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	2.35%
Singles /BIP	24.09%	÷1.036	×0.920	×0.977	×0.998	20.86%
Doubles /BIP	9.80%	÷1.062	×0.910	×0.977	×0.998	8.19%
Triples /BIP	2.24%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.977	×0.998	1.67%
Home runs /BIP	6.44%	÷1.043	×0.800	—	×0.998	4.93%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 107, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 105, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .405 → .328; ISO .253 → .198; BABIP .381 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 517 PAwOBA .341 → .278 (−63)K% 21.7% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.66%	÷0.978	×1.420	—	—	31.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.77%	÷1.045	×0.750	—	×0.988	4.80%
HBP% /PA	2.32%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	2.13%
Singles /BIP	19.88%	÷1.030	×0.920	×0.969	×0.988	17.01%
Doubles /BIP	10.09%	÷0.928	×0.960	×0.969	×0.988	9.99%
Triples /BIP	2.02%	÷0.934	×0.810	×0.969	×0.988	1.67%
Home runs /BIP	3.75%	÷0.984	×0.880	—	×0.988	3.31%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 86, 3B 87, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .341 → .278; ISO .192 → .161; BABIP .328 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .