Alden Carrithers
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 330 | .284/.384/.374 | 3 | 16 | 77 | — | .245/.319/.323 |
| 2014 | 29 | AAASF | 457 | .284/.383/.349 | 2 | 14 | 78 | — | .249/.327/.294 |
| 2015 | 30 | AAAMIL | 179 | .286/.379/.344 | 1 | 5 | 70 | — | .248/.316/.298 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 23 | ROK | GCL Tigers | — | 152 | 114 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 19 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 316 | 473 | 430 | 903 | 114 | 354 | 12 | 18 | 404 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 181 | 150 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 22 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 307 | 402 | 367 | 769 | 60 | 351 | 12 | 13 | 341 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 251 | 210 | 55 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 35 | 29 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 262 | 378 | 310 | 687 | 48 | 300 | 12 | 14 | 323 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 267 | 220 | 79 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 29 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 359 | 466 | 423 | 889 | 64 | 408 | 11 | 16 | 403 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 423 | 359 | 102 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 51 | 31 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 284 | 376 | 362 | 738 | 78 | 306 | 7 | 12 | 330 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 204 | 165 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 21 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 315 | 435 | 352 | 787 | 36 | 359 | 10 | 17 | 362 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA | Gwinnett Braves | — | 293 | 251 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 27 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 299 | 387 | 398 | 785 | 100 | 326 | 9 | 11 | 350 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 37 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 148 | 361 | 148 | 509 | 190 | 16 | 22 | 269 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 457 | 387 | 110 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 55 | 45 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 284 | 383 | 349 | 732 | 65 | 315 | 10 | 12 | 334 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 179 | 154 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 286 | 379 | 344 | 723 | 58 | 316 | 9 | 12 | 331 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Tigers | — | 152 | 125 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 27 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 256 | 372 | 352 | 724 | 96 | 280 | 18 | 11 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 181 | 159 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 289 | 351 | 346 | 696 | 57 | 324 | 17 | 8 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 251 | 220 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 36 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 236 | 325 | 273 | 598 | 36 | 278 | 14 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 267 | 231 | 71 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 42 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 307 | 394 | 364 | 758 | 56 | 368 | 16 | 12 | 340 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 423 | 379 | 105 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 31 | 37 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 277 | 335 | 351 | 686 | 74 | 291 | 9 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 204 | 179 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 285 | 360 | 318 | 678 | 34 | 324 | 13 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Braves | — | 293 | 262 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 33 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 260 | 324 | 347 | 671 | 88 | 281 | 11 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 37 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 133 | 278 | 133 | 411 | 164 | 22 | 14 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 457 | 402 | 100 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 58 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 249 | 327 | 294 | 621 | 45 | 282 | 13 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 179 | 161 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 248 | 316 | 298 | 615 | 50 | 275 | 12 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Tigers | — | 152 | 125 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 27 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 256 | 372 | 352 | 724 | 96 | 303 | 18 | 11 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | ROK RAW | GCL Tigers | — | 152 | 114 | 36 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 19 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 316 | 473 | 430 | 903 | 114 | 354 | 12 | 18 | 404 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 181 | 159 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 289 | 351 | 346 | 696 | 57 | 348 | 17 | 8 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 181 | 150 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 22 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 307 | 402 | 367 | 769 | 60 | 351 | 12 | 13 | 341 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 451 | 125 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 57 | 79 | 5 | 17 | 8 | 277 | 365 | 326 | 690 | 49 | 332 | 15 | 11 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 518 | 430 | 134 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 78 | 58 | 5 | 17 | 8 | 312 | 423 | 367 | 790 | 56 | 356 | 11 | 15 | 364 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 423 | 379 | 105 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 31 | 37 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 277 | 335 | 351 | 686 | 74 | 303 | 9 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 423 | 359 | 102 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 51 | 31 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 284 | 376 | 362 | 738 | 78 | 306 | 7 | 12 | 330 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 204 | 179 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 285 | 360 | 318 | 678 | 34 | 333 | 13 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 204 | 165 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 21 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 315 | 435 | 352 | 787 | 36 | 359 | 10 | 17 | 362 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 330 | 292 | 72 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 41 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 247 | 319 | 325 | 644 | 79 | 278 | 12 | 8 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 330 | 278 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 33 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 284 | 384 | 374 | 758 | 90 | 314 | 10 | 12 | 341 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 457 | 402 | 100 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 58 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 249 | 327 | 294 | 621 | 45 | 286 | 13 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 457 | 387 | 110 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 55 | 45 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 284 | 383 | 349 | 732 | 65 | 315 | 10 | 12 | 334 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 179 | 161 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 248 | 316 | 298 | 615 | 50 | 281 | 12 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 179 | 154 | 44 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 286 | 379 | 344 | 723 | 58 | 316 | 9 | 12 | 331 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Tigers | — | 152 | 128 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 27 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 250 | 372 | 344 | 715 | 94 | 280 | 18 | 11 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 181 | 164 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 280 | 351 | 335 | 686 | 55 | 324 | 17 | 8 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 451 | 125 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 57 | 79 | 5 | 17 | 8 | 277 | 365 | 326 | 690 | 49 | 324 | 15 | 11 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 423 | 387 | 105 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 31 | 37 | 2 | 19 | 3 | 271 | 335 | 344 | 679 | 72 | 291 | 9 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 204 | 181 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 282 | 360 | 315 | 675 | 33 | 324 | 13 | 10 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 330 | 296 | 72 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 41 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 243 | 319 | 321 | 640 | 78 | 268 | 12 | 8 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 457 | 407 | 100 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 58 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 246 | 327 | 290 | 617 | 44 | 282 | 13 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 179 | 161 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 248 | 316 | 298 | 615 | 50 | 275 | 12 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2444 | 2148 | 571 | 73 | 13 | 9 | 222 | 320 | 26 | 105 | 31 | 266 | 342 | 324 | 666 | 59 | 306 | 13 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -42 | +9 | +0 | +9 | +53 | 2.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 571 | 151 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 59 | 85 | 7 | 28 | 8 | 264 | 341 | 319 | 659 | 54 | 305 | 13 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -11 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAANashville Sounds · 179 PAwOBA .323 → .271 (−52)K% 9.5% → 11.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.50% | ÷1.034 | ×1.290 | — | — | 11.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.29% | ÷1.018 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.962 | 8.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.962 | 0.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.74% | ÷0.953 | ×0.900 | ×0.978 | ×0.962 | 24.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.92% | ÷1.063 | ×0.810 | ×0.978 | ×0.962 | 2.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.952 | ×0.810 | ×0.978 | ×0.962 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.73% | ÷0.843 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.962 | 0.65% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 91, 2B 113, 3B 90, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .323 → .271; ISO .058 → .048; BABIP .316 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAASacramento River Cats · 457 PAwOBA .328 → .284 (−44)K% 9.8% → 12.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.85% | ÷0.998 | ×1.290 | — | — | 12.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.04% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.972 | 8.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.972 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.90% | ÷0.975 | ×0.900 | ×1.012 | ×0.972 | 24.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.80% | ÷0.929 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×0.972 | 3.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.072 | ×0.810 | ×1.012 | ×0.972 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.092 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.972 | 0.41% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 114, K 100, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .328 → .284; ISO .065 → .053; BABIP .315 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAGwinnett Braves · 293 PAwOBA .341 → .292 (−49)K% 9.2% → 11.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.22% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 11.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.58% | ÷0.991 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.45% | ÷1.038 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×0.982 | 22.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×0.982 | 5.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.047 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×0.982 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.34% | ÷0.949 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 109, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .341 → .292; ISO .100 → .089; BABIP .326 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAMississippi Braves · 37 PAwOBA .264 → .198 (−66)K% 16.2% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.22% | ÷0.965 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.62% | ÷1.089 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.958 | 12.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.958 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 16.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 93, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .264 → .198; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .190 → .164. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAMississippi Braves · 204 PAwOBA .355 → .303 (−52)K% 10.3% → 13.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.29% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.16% | ÷1.114 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 10.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.94% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 28.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.987 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 3.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.852 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 108, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 93, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .355 → .303; ISO .036 → .037; BABIP .359 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AABirmingham Barons · 423 PAwOBA .324 → .300 (−24)K% 7.3% → 8.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.33% | ÷1.019 | ×1.220 | — | — | 8.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.35% | ÷1.029 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 7.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.09% | ÷0.960 | ×0.920 | ×1.023 | ×0.978 | 23.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.49% | ÷0.996 | ×0.910 | ×1.023 | ×0.978 | 5.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.937 | ×0.880 | ×1.023 | ×0.978 | 1.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.880 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 92, 2B 99, 3B 87, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .324 → .300; ISO .078 → .078; BABIP .306 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 267 PAwOBA .395 → .340 (−54)K% 10.9% → 15.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.86% | ÷0.967 | ×1.420 | — | — | 15.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.10% | ÷0.987 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.968 | 11.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.968 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.08% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 31.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.76% | ÷1.063 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 5.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.772 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 0.58% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 54, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .395 → .340; ISO .064 → .061; BABIP .408 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAErie SeaWolves · 251 PAwOBA .315 → .274 (−41)K% 11.6% → 14.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.55% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.94% | ÷0.969 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 1.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.97% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 24.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.87% | ÷1.120 | ×0.860 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 2.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.134 | ×0.950 | ×1.002 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.55% | ÷0.923 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.46% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 102, 2B 124, 3B 127, K 96, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .315 → .274; ISO .048 → .038; BABIP .300 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).