Billy Burns
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 551 | .281/.361/.321 | 0 | 34 | 69 | — | .251/.310/.288 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAAKC | 425 | .255/.317/.316 | 4 | 10 | 47 | — | .225/.271/.275 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAAScranton/Wilk… | 304 | .258/.333/.360 | 2 | 14 | 53 | — | .216/.266/.302 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 485 | 398 | 128 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 65 | 68 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 322 | 433 | 382 | 815 | 60 | 387 | 14 | 13 | 370 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 138 | 114 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 17 | 2 | 20 | 2 | 325 | 434 | 360 | 793 | 35 | 381 | 12 | 14 | 365 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 402 | 330 | 103 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 52 | 37 | 12 | 54 | 5 | 312 | 424 | 391 | 815 | 79 | 349 | 9 | 13 | 367 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 121 | 109 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 254 | 211 | 465 | 18 | 233 | 16 | 7 | 215 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 421 | 363 | 93 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 65 | 3 | 51 | 6 | 256 | 343 | 339 | 682 | 83 | 306 | 15 | 11 | 306 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 555 | 520 | 153 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 26 | 81 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 294 | 335 | 392 | 727 | 98 | 339 | 15 | 5 | 325 | 106 | +4 | +2 | -7 | +2 | +12 | 1.4 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 101 | 91 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 308 | 370 | 396 | 766 | 88 | 378 | 17 | 9 | 342 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | — | 332 | 311 | 73 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 37 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 235 | 272 | 296 | 568 | 61 | 264 | 11 | 3 | 254 | 56 | -18 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +7 | -0.9 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 49 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 283 | 312 | 304 | 617 | 22 | 433 | 33 | 4 | 276 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 414 | 354 | 101 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 44 | 60 | 4 | 24 | 11 | 285 | 370 | 328 | 697 | 42 | 341 | 14 | 11 | 315 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | INTL | Charros de Jalisco | — | 137 | 123 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 268 | 333 | 301 | 634 | 33 | 311 | 12 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 425 | 376 | 96 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 54 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 255 | 317 | 316 | 634 | 61 | 286 | 13 | 7 | 281 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 304 | 267 | 69 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 41 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 258 | 333 | 360 | 693 | 101 | 295 | 13 | 9 | 308 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 887 | 831 | 226 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 36 | 118 | 12 | 43 | 13 | 272 | 312 | 356 | 668 | 84 | 310 | 13 | 4 | 298 | 88 | -13 | +3 | -8 | +4 | +19 | 0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 485 | 420 | 124 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 43 | 94 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 295 | 378 | 343 | 721 | 48 | 368 | 19 | 9 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 138 | 120 | 39 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 20 | 2 | 325 | 404 | 358 | 763 | 33 | 390 | 14 | 10 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 402 | 351 | 98 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 31 | 56 | 12 | 54 | 5 | 279 | 358 | 339 | 697 | 60 | 321 | 14 | 8 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 121 | 111 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 237 | 207 | 444 | 18 | 232 | 21 | 6 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 421 | 379 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 83 | 3 | 51 | 6 | 240 | 299 | 311 | 611 | 71 | 290 | 20 | 7 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 555 | 521 | 153 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 81 | 6 | 26 | 8 | 294 | 333 | 390 | 723 | 96 | 339 | 15 | 5 | 325 | 106 | +4 | +2 | -7 | +2 | +12 | 1.4 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 101 | 94 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 287 | 330 | 372 | 702 | 85 | 349 | 21 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | Kansas City Royals | — | 332 | 313 | 73 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 233 | 266 | 294 | 560 | 61 | 264 | 11 | 2 | 250 | 56 | -18 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +7 | -0.9 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 49 | 47 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 234 | 250 | 255 | 505 | 21 | 402 | 41 | 2 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 414 | 371 | 93 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 73 | 4 | 24 | 11 | 251 | 310 | 288 | 599 | 38 | 298 | 18 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 425 | 386 | 87 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 69 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 225 | 271 | 275 | 545 | 49 | 253 | 16 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 304 | 278 | 60 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 49 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 216 | 266 | 302 | 568 | 86 | 244 | 16 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 485 | 420 | 124 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 43 | 94 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 295 | 378 | 343 | 721 | 48 | 379 | 19 | 9 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 485 | 398 | 128 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 65 | 68 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 322 | 433 | 382 | 815 | 60 | 387 | 14 | 13 | 370 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 540 | 470 | 139 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 46 | 76 | 14 | 74 | 7 | 296 | 375 | 351 | 727 | 55 | 351 | 14 | 9 | 318 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 540 | 444 | 140 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 72 | 54 | 14 | 74 | 7 | 315 | 426 | 383 | 809 | 68 | 357 | 10 | 13 | 367 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 542 | 490 | 112 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 108 | 3 | 54 | 7 | 229 | 285 | 288 | 573 | 59 | 288 | 20 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 542 | 472 | 114 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54 | 84 | 3 | 54 | 7 | 242 | 323 | 309 | 633 | 68 | 289 | 15 | 10 | 286 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 656 | 615 | 179 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 31 | 102 | 6 | 31 | 10 | 291 | 331 | 385 | 717 | 94 | 341 | 16 | 5 | 320 | 103 | +2 | +2 | -7 | +2 | +14 | 1.4 |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 656 | 611 | 181 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 35 | 98 | 6 | 31 | 10 | 296 | 340 | 393 | 733 | 97 | 345 | 15 | 5 | 327 | 103 | +2 | +2 | -7 | +2 | +14 | 1.4 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 381 | 360 | 85 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 57 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 236 | 267 | 292 | 558 | 56 | 279 | 15 | 2 | 247 | 54 | -21 | +2 | -2 | +1 | +8 | -1.1 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 381 | 357 | 86 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 53 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 241 | 277 | 297 | 574 | 56 | 281 | 14 | 3 | 257 | 54 | -21 | +2 | -2 | +1 | +8 | -1.1 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 496 | 123 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 37 | 98 | 5 | 34 | 13 | 248 | 307 | 284 | 591 | 36 | 307 | 18 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 551 | 477 | 134 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 55 | 77 | 5 | 34 | 13 | 281 | 361 | 321 | 681 | 40 | 333 | 14 | 10 | 309 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 425 | 386 | 87 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 69 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 225 | 271 | 275 | 545 | 49 | 264 | 16 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA RAW | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 425 | 376 | 96 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 54 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 255 | 317 | 316 | 634 | 61 | 286 | 13 | 7 | 281 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 304 | 278 | 60 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 49 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 216 | 266 | 302 | 568 | 86 | 252 | 16 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA RAW | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 304 | 267 | 69 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 41 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 258 | 333 | 360 | 693 | 101 | 295 | 13 | 9 | 308 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 485 | 426 | 124 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 43 | 94 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 291 | 378 | 338 | 716 | 47 | 368 | 19 | 9 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 540 | 475 | 139 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 46 | 76 | 14 | 74 | 7 | 293 | 375 | 347 | 723 | 55 | 339 | 14 | 9 | 318 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 542 | 498 | 112 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 36 | 108 | 3 | 54 | 7 | 225 | 285 | 283 | 569 | 58 | 277 | 20 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 656 | 614 | 179 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 31 | 102 | 6 | 31 | 10 | 292 | 331 | 386 | 717 | 94 | 341 | 16 | 5 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 381 | 363 | 85 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 57 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 234 | 267 | 289 | 556 | 55 | 282 | 15 | 2 | 247 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 551 | 504 | 123 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 37 | 98 | 5 | 34 | 13 | 244 | 307 | 280 | 586 | 36 | 298 | 18 | 7 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Omaha Storm Chasers | — | 425 | 398 | 87 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 69 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 219 | 271 | 266 | 537 | 48 | 253 | 16 | 5 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 304 | 282 | 60 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 49 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 213 | 266 | 298 | 564 | 85 | 244 | 16 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 887 | 831 | 226 | 29 | 13 | 5 | 36 | 118 | 12 | 43 | 13 | 272 | 312 | 356 | 668 | 84 | 310 | 13 | 4 | 298 | 76 | -13 | +3 | -8 | +4 | +19 | 0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 609 | 166 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 26 | 86 | 9 | 32 | 10 | 273 | 312 | 360 | 672 | 87 | 310 | 13 | 4 | 298 | 76 | -9 | +2 | -6 | +3 | +14 | 0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3884 | 3515 | 909 | 103 | 39 | 11 | 238 | 653 | 54 | 276 | 62 | 259 | 315 | 319 | 635 | 61 | 313 | 17 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -13 | +3 | -8 | +4 | +19 | 0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 153 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 40 | 109 | 9 | 46 | 10 | 260 | 317 | 323 | 640 | 63 | 315 | 17 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -9 | +2 | -6 | +3 | +14 | 0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 304 PAwOBA .302 → .246 (−56)K% 13.5% → 16.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.49% | ÷1.007 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.55% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 5.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.68% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 18.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.64% | ÷1.009 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 5.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.938 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.087 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 0.66% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 88, K 101, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .302 → .246; ISO .101 → .085; BABIP .295 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 425 PAwOBA .277 → .238 (−39)K% 12.7% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.71% | ÷1.007 | ×1.290 | — | — | 16.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.06% | ÷1.018 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 4.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.47% | ÷1.020 | ×0.900 | ×1.026 | ×0.982 | 22.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.80% | ÷0.936 | ×0.810 | ×1.026 | ×0.982 | 2.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.026 | ×0.982 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.24% | ÷1.101 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 0.86% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .277 → .238; ISO .061 → .049; BABIP .286 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 414 PAwOBA .308 → .264 (−45)K% 14.5% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.49% | ÷1.054 | ×1.290 | — | — | 17.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.39% | ÷1.076 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 6.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.97% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.61% | ÷1.024 | ×0.900 | ×1.006 | ×0.992 | 26.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×0.992 | 1.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷0.914 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×0.992 | 1.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 97, 3B 83, K 111, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .308 → .264; ISO .042 → .038; BABIP .341 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 49 PAwOBA .269 → .226 (−43)K% 32.7% → 40.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.65% | ÷1.040 | ×1.290 | — | — | 40.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.08% | ÷1.006 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 2.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 40.00% | ÷0.968 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.003 | 37.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.929 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 2.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.068 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 94, 2B 86, 3B 114, K 108, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .269 → .226; ISO .022 → .018; BABIP .433 → .402. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAANashville Sounds · 101 PAwOBA .333 → .290 (−43)K% 16.8% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.83% | ÷1.034 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.91% | ÷1.018 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 6.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.08% | ÷0.953 | ×0.900 | ×0.985 | ×1.018 | 29.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.063 | ×0.810 | ×0.985 | ×1.018 | 2.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.05% | ÷0.952 | ×0.810 | ×0.985 | ×1.018 | 3.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.843 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 91, 2B 113, 3B 90, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .333 → .290; ISO .088 → .072; BABIP .378 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAMidland RockHounds · 421 PAwOBA .302 → .267 (−35)K% 15.4% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.44% | ÷0.957 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.69% | ÷1.078 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.82% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 22.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.05% | ÷1.049 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 5.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.012 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.34% | ÷0.961 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.28% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 96, 2B 110, 3B 102, K 91, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .302 → .267; ISO .083 → .073; BABIP .306 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAASacramento River Cats · 121 PAwOBA .210 → .196 (−14)K% 15.7% → 20.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.70% | ÷0.998 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.44% | ÷0.953 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 5.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.11% | ÷0.975 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 21.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.22% | ÷0.929 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 2.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.072 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.092 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 95, 2B 86, 3B 114, K 100, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .210 → .196; ISO .018 → .017; BABIP .233 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Potomac Nationals · 402 PAwOBA .359 → .309 (−50)K% 9.2% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.20% | ÷0.932 | ×1.420 | — | — | 14.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.44% | ÷0.991 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 7.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.99% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 2.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.35% | ÷1.031 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 27.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.73% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 2.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.07% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 2.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 86, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .359 → .309; ISO .079 → .063; BABIP .349 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .