Carson Blair
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 334 | .252/.352/.437 | 9 | 1 | 65 | — | .199/.269/.343 | |
| 2015 | 25 | MLBOakland Athle… | 35 | .129/.229/.226 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 0.0 | ||
| 2016 | 26 | AAA/AATEX | 161 | .236/.335/.357 | 4 | 1 | 53 | — | .194/.273/.284 | |
| 2017 | 27 | AAACWS | 139 | .211/.297/.390 | 5 | 0 | 36 | — | .150/.217/.260 | |
| 2018 | 28 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 18 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 23 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 409 | 409 | 591 | 1.000 | 182 | 471 | 22 | 0 | 422 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 147 | 124 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 210 | 300 | 323 | 623 | 113 | 289 | 31 | 11 | 273 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 30 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 367 | 423 | 790 | 154 | 400 | 33 | 13 | 356 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 115 | 100 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 289 | 360 | 649 | 170 | 276 | 35 | 12 | 292 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 191 | 165 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 206 | 303 | 364 | 667 | 158 | 265 | 25 | 11 | 297 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 148 | 124 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 372 | 452 | 823 | 202 | 333 | 26 | 16 | 367 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 71 | 59 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 288 | 400 | 525 | 925 | 237 | 385 | 27 | 14 | 400 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 291 | 238 | 62 | 19 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 88 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 389 | 471 | 859 | 210 | 368 | 30 | 16 | 379 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 35 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 229 | 226 | 454 | 97 | 250 | 51 | 11 | 217 | 37 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 126 | 113 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 285 | 327 | 612 | 106 | 282 | 27 | 7 | 272 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 208 | 173 | 47 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 62 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 272 | 391 | 509 | 900 | 237 | 387 | 30 | 16 | 394 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 222 | 176 | 399 | 375 | 50 | 6 | 190 | -29 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 143 | 123 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 43 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 350 | 382 | 732 | 138 | 342 | 30 | 12 | 334 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 139 | 123 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 297 | 390 | 687 | 179 | 313 | 37 | 9 | 307 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 35 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 229 | 226 | 454 | 97 | 250 | 51 | 11 | 217 | 33 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +1 | 0.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 23 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 318 | 318 | 500 | 818 | 182 | 376 | 30 | 0 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 147 | 130 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 131 | 193 | 192 | 385 | 62 | 212 | 45 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 30 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 233 | 321 | 555 | 143 | 312 | 47 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 115 | 105 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 193 | 229 | 422 | 105 | 219 | 49 | 8 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 191 | 173 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 68 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 156 | 223 | 277 | 501 | 121 | 211 | 36 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 148 | 133 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 270 | 323 | 594 | 135 | 295 | 38 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 71 | 62 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 343 | 468 | 811 | 210 | 348 | 34 | 10 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 291 | 258 | 50 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 125 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 278 | 345 | 623 | 151 | 324 | 43 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 35 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 229 | 226 | 454 | 97 | 250 | 51 | 11 | 223 | 37 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +1 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 126 | 116 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 236 | 284 | 520 | 95 | 254 | 33 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 208 | 185 | 38 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 290 | 378 | 668 | 173 | 328 | 39 | 10 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 167 | 118 | 284 | 357 | 67 | 6 | 126 | -29 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 143 | 128 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 203 | 287 | 305 | 591 | 102 | 306 | 36 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 139 | 127 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 64 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 150 | 217 | 260 | 477 | 110 | 276 | 46 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 23 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 318 | 318 | 500 | 818 | 182 | 400 | 30 | 0 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 23 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 409 | 409 | 591 | 1.000 | 182 | 471 | 22 | 0 | 422 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 147 | 130 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 131 | 193 | 192 | 385 | 62 | 229 | 45 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 147 | 124 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 210 | 300 | 323 | 623 | 113 | 289 | 31 | 11 | 273 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 30 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 233 | 321 | 555 | 143 | 308 | 47 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 30 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 367 | 423 | 790 | 154 | 400 | 33 | 13 | 356 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 115 | 105 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 193 | 229 | 422 | 105 | 229 | 49 | 8 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 115 | 100 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 289 | 360 | 649 | 170 | 276 | 35 | 12 | 292 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 191 | 173 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 68 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 156 | 223 | 277 | 501 | 121 | 229 | 36 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 191 | 165 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 206 | 303 | 364 | 667 | 158 | 265 | 25 | 11 | 297 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 148 | 133 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 270 | 323 | 594 | 135 | 297 | 38 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 148 | 124 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 250 | 372 | 452 | 823 | 202 | 333 | 26 | 16 | 367 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 362 | 320 | 65 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 149 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 288 | 366 | 653 | 162 | 337 | 41 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 362 | 297 | 79 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 58 | 107 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 391 | 481 | 873 | 215 | 372 | 30 | 16 | 383 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 369 | 332 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 142 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 263 | 319 | 582 | 130 | 297 | 38 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 369 | 317 | 76 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 114 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 340 | 416 | 756 | 177 | 337 | 31 | 12 | 335 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 161 | 145 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 62 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 193 | 273 | 283 | 556 | 90 | 312 | 39 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 161 | 140 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 52 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 236 | 335 | 357 | 693 | 121 | 345 | 32 | 11 | 318 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 139 | 127 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 64 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 150 | 217 | 260 | 477 | 110 | 267 | 46 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 139 | 123 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 297 | 390 | 687 | 179 | 313 | 37 | 9 | 307 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 23 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 304 | 318 | 478 | 796 | 174 | 376 | 30 | 0 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 147 | 136 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 125 | 193 | 184 | 377 | 59 | 212 | 45 | 7 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 30 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 233 | 321 | 555 | 143 | 312 | 47 | 7 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 115 | 105 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 193 | 229 | 422 | 105 | 219 | 49 | 8 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 191 | 174 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 68 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 155 | 223 | 276 | 499 | 121 | 211 | 36 | 7 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 148 | 132 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 270 | 326 | 596 | 136 | 295 | 38 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 362 | 321 | 65 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 149 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 288 | 364 | 652 | 162 | 329 | 41 | 10 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 369 | 333 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 142 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 189 | 263 | 318 | 581 | 129 | 295 | 38 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 161 | 144 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 62 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 194 | 273 | 285 | 558 | 90 | 312 | 39 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 139 | 127 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 64 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 150 | 217 | 260 | 477 | 110 | 276 | 46 | 6 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 35 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 229 | 226 | 454 | 97 | 250 | 51 | 11 | 217 | 52 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 74 | 334 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 229 | 229 | 458 | 99 | 251 | 51 | 11 | 217 | 52 | -52 | +0 | -82 | +122 | +14 | 0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1685 | 1515 | 269 | 68 | 9 | 34 | 135 | 684 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 178 | 251 | 302 | 553 | 124 | 288 | 41 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -3 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +1 | 0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 103 | 26 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 264 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 176 | 249 | 298 | 547 | 122 | 287 | 41 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -52 | +0 | -82 | +122 | +14 | 0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAACharlotte Knights · 139 PAwOBA .299 → .221 (−78)K% 36.7% → 46.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.69% | ÷0.952 | ×1.200 | — | — | 46.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.63% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.44% | ÷1.012 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 17.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.72% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 8.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.077 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.94% | ÷1.150 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 5.03% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 102, 2B 92, 3B 115, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .299 → .221; ISO .179 → .122; BABIP .313 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 143 PAwOBA .326 → .261 (−65)K% 30.1% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.07% | ÷1.034 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.89% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.10% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.25% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 24.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.062 | ×0.840 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 4.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.67% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .326 → .261; ISO .138 → .101; BABIP .342 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAARound Rock Express · 18 PAwOBA .185 → .126 (−59)K% 50.0% → 64.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 50.00% | ÷1.004 | ×1.290 | — | — | 64.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 3.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.50% | ÷0.949 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.003 | 35.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.839 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 90, 2B 116, 3B 95, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .185 → .126; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .375 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAMidland RockHounds · 208 PAwOBA .386 → .286 (−99)K% 29.8% → 39.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.81% | ÷0.928 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.87% | ÷1.106 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 9.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.82% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×0.988 | 18.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.51% | ÷1.125 | ×0.840 | ×1.019 | ×0.988 | 10.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.60% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.019 | ×0.988 | 2.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.982 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.35% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 98, 2B 125, 3B 130, K 86, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .386 → .286; ISO .237 → .177; BABIP .387 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAANashville Sounds · 126 PAwOBA .269 → .228 (−42)K% 27.0% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.98% | ÷1.034 | ×1.290 | — | — | 33.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.018 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 5.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.05% | ÷0.953 | ×0.900 | ×0.964 | ×1.018 | 22.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.80% | ÷1.063 | ×0.810 | ×0.964 | ×1.018 | 2.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.952 | ×0.810 | ×0.964 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.80% | ÷0.843 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 3.58% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 91, 2B 113, 3B 90, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .269 → .228; ISO .106 → .092; BABIP .282 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Salem Red Sox · 291 PAwOBA .372 → .274 (−99)K% 30.2% → 43.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.24% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 43.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.15% | ÷1.031 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 9.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.33% | ÷1.015 | ×0.940 | ×1.020 | ×0.978 | 19.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.67% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×0.978 | 10.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.020 | ×0.978 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 5.15% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .372 → .274; ISO .210 → .162; BABIP .368 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 71 PAwOBA .396 → .328 (−68)K% 26.8% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.76% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.08% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 19.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.025 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 12.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 2.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.06% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .396 → .328; ISO .237 → .202; BABIP .385 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Salem Red Sox · 148 PAwOBA .358 → .266 (−92)K% 26.4% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.35% | ÷0.994 | ×1.420 | — | — | 37.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.54% | ÷1.054 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 9.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.82% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 17.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.59% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 8.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.129 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.71% | ÷0.979 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 4.27% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 108, 3B 126, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .358 → .266; ISO .202 → .157; BABIP .333 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).