Gerson Montilla
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 24 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 431 | .258/.314/.356 | 6 | 1 | 56 | — | .228/.272/.318 |
| 2015 | 25 | AA/A+/INTL3 orgs | 476 | .259/.330/.444 | 19 | 9 | 66 | — | .206/.259/.354 |
| 2016 | 26 | A+/INTL2 orgs | 579 | .262/.339/.386 | 13 | 4 | 56 | — | .212/.260/.305 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 18 | ROK | DSL Diamondbacks | — | 245 | 213 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 39 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 249 | 344 | 315 | 659 | 66 | 303 | 16 | 10 | 306 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 57 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 255 | 260 | 515 | 80 | 225 | 18 | 9 | 231 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 196 | 170 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 50 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 319 | 318 | 637 | 71 | 342 | 26 | 7 | 282 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A | South Bend Silver Hawks | — | 268 | 244 | 57 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 49 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 234 | 292 | 418 | 710 | 184 | 262 | 18 | 5 | 310 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 279 | 259 | 73 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 282 | 321 | 456 | 777 | 174 | 300 | 14 | 5 | 337 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A | South Bend Silver Hawks | — | 299 | 263 | 77 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 38 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 293 | 374 | 449 | 822 | 156 | 327 | 13 | 11 | 365 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 607 | 542 | 153 | 28 | 2 | 19 | 43 | 106 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 282 | 337 | 446 | 784 | 164 | 317 | 17 | 7 | 337 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 59 | 52 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 293 | 308 | 601 | 96 | 256 | 15 | 10 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 376 | 337 | 91 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 65 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 270 | 330 | 380 | 710 | 110 | 311 | 17 | 7 | 313 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 55 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 176 | 208 | 196 | 404 | 20 | 225 | 22 | 4 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 231 | 200 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 225 | 326 | 380 | 706 | 155 | 237 | 16 | 11 | 320 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 196 | 183 | 57 | 11 | 0 | 10 | 11 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 311 | 351 | 536 | 886 | 224 | 351 | 21 | 6 | 384 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 49 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 265 | 356 | 621 | 156 | 216 | 14 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 563 | 496 | 132 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 51 | 76 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 266 | 339 | 393 | 733 | 127 | 285 | 13 | 9 | 324 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | INTL | Bravos de Margarita | — | 16 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 312 | 83 | 396 | 91 | 6 | 25 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Diamondbacks | — | 245 | 220 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 48 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 155 | 238 | 191 | 429 | 36 | 195 | 20 | 7 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 57 | 51 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 236 | 255 | 491 | 78 | 227 | 21 | 7 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 196 | 174 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 65 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 224 | 282 | 287 | 569 | 63 | 321 | 33 | 5 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | South Bend Silver Hawks | — | 268 | 250 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 68 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 184 | 227 | 324 | 551 | 140 | 216 | 25 | 3 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 279 | 263 | 61 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 232 | 263 | 376 | 639 | 144 | 248 | 18 | 4 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | South Bend Silver Hawks | — | 299 | 276 | 66 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 52 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 239 | 293 | 370 | 662 | 130 | 275 | 17 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 607 | 559 | 126 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 26 | 144 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 225 | 262 | 347 | 609 | 122 | 261 | 24 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 376 | 346 | 79 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 80 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 228 | 272 | 318 | 590 | 90 | 267 | 21 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 231 | 209 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 46 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 182 | 257 | 297 | 553 | 115 | 203 | 20 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 196 | 187 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 55 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 235 | 263 | 422 | 685 | 187 | 272 | 28 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 563 | 518 | 110 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 115 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 212 | 260 | 305 | 565 | 93 | 241 | 20 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Diamondbacks | — | 245 | 220 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 48 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 155 | 238 | 191 | 429 | 36 | 197 | 20 | 7 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Diamondbacks | — | 245 | 213 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 39 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 249 | 344 | 315 | 659 | 66 | 303 | 16 | 10 | 306 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 253 | 225 | 48 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 77 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 213 | 272 | 280 | 552 | 67 | 318 | 30 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 253 | 220 | 51 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 60 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 232 | 305 | 305 | 609 | 73 | 312 | 24 | 7 | 271 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | South Bend Silver Hawks | — | 268 | 250 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 68 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 184 | 227 | 324 | 551 | 140 | 223 | 25 | 3 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A RAW | South Bend Silver Hawks | — | 268 | 244 | 57 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 49 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 234 | 292 | 418 | 710 | 184 | 262 | 18 | 5 | 310 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 578 | 539 | 125 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 103 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 232 | 275 | 360 | 635 | 128 | 265 | 18 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 578 | 522 | 150 | 36 | 4 | 14 | 46 | 77 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 287 | 349 | 452 | 801 | 165 | 314 | 13 | 8 | 351 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 666 | 614 | 138 | 23 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 159 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 225 | 262 | 349 | 611 | 124 | 273 | 24 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 666 | 594 | 164 | 31 | 3 | 19 | 49 | 115 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 276 | 333 | 434 | 768 | 158 | 311 | 17 | 7 | 331 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 397 | 92 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 91 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 232 | 274 | 327 | 601 | 96 | 279 | 21 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 431 | 388 | 100 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 77 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 258 | 314 | 356 | 670 | 98 | 300 | 18 | 7 | 296 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 476 | 442 | 91 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 27 | 113 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 206 | 258 | 351 | 609 | 145 | 237 | 24 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 476 | 428 | 111 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 41 | 85 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 259 | 330 | 444 | 774 | 185 | 281 | 18 | 9 | 342 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 533 | 113 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 118 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 212 | 259 | 302 | 561 | 90 | 248 | 20 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 579 | 508 | 133 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 55 | 77 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 262 | 339 | 386 | 724 | 124 | 280 | 13 | 9 | 321 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Diamondbacks | — | 245 | 219 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 48 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 155 | 238 | 192 | 429 | 37 | 195 | 20 | 7 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 253 | 233 | 48 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 77 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 206 | 272 | 270 | 542 | 64 | 300 | 30 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | A MLE | South Bend Silver Hawks | — | 268 | 252 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 68 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 183 | 227 | 321 | 549 | 139 | 216 | 25 | 3 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 578 | 541 | 125 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 29 | 103 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 231 | 275 | 359 | 634 | 128 | 262 | 18 | 5 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 666 | 630 | 138 | 23 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 159 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 219 | 262 | 340 | 602 | 121 | 261 | 24 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 431 | 405 | 92 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 91 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 227 | 274 | 321 | 595 | 94 | 267 | 21 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 476 | 442 | 91 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 27 | 113 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 206 | 258 | 351 | 609 | 145 | 235 | 24 | 6 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 579 | 540 | 113 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 30 | 118 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 209 | 259 | 298 | 557 | 89 | 241 | 20 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3496 | 3220 | 687 | 129 | 10 | 68 | 173 | 777 | 34 | 51 | 36 | 213 | 261 | 323 | 584 | 110 | 257 | 22 | 5 | 254 | 58 | -174 | -4 | +0 | +12 | +76 | -9.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 128 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 144 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 214 | 261 | 326 | 586 | 112 | 256 | 22 | 5 | 254 | 58 | -32 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 563 PAwOBA .320 → .251 (−69)K% 13.5% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.50% | ÷0.938 | ×1.420 | — | — | 20.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.53% | ÷0.996 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.958 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.10% | ÷0.994 | ×0.940 | ×0.958 | ×0.958 | 20.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×0.958 | ×0.958 | 3.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.013 | ×0.800 | ×0.958 | ×0.958 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.10% | ÷1.098 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.958 | 2.43% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 103, K 88, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .320 → .251; ISO .127 → .098; BABIP .285 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAMobile BayBears · 231 PAwOBA .313 → .246 (−67)K% 16.0% → 20.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.02% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.26% | ÷1.043 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 7.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.73% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.40% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | ×0.988 | 15.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.29% | ÷0.961 | ×0.910 | ×0.959 | ×0.988 | 3.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.880 | ×0.959 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.91% | ÷1.098 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.53% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 102, 2B 92, 3B 84, K 95, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .313 → .246; ISO .155 → .119; BABIP .237 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Visalia Rawhide · 196 PAwOBA .376 → .287 (−90)K% 20.9% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.92% | ÷1.002 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.61% | ÷1.057 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.35% | ÷1.058 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 20.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.75% | ÷1.007 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 5.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 6.44% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 112, 2B 101, 3B 83, K 100, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .376 → .287; ISO .224 → .184; BABIP .351 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAMobile BayBears · 376 PAwOBA .310 → .261 (−50)K% 17.3% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.29% | ÷0.993 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.18% | ÷1.030 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.37% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 21.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.78% | ÷0.965 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 4.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.038 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.21% | ÷0.902 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.95% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 93, 3B 108, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .310 → .261; ISO .110 → .097; BABIP .311 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Visalia Rawhide · 607 PAwOBA .331 → .260 (−70)K% 17.5% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.46% | ÷0.981 | ×1.340 | — | — | 23.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.08% | ÷1.156 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.33% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.85% | ÷1.029 | ×0.910 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 20.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.42% | ÷1.043 | ×0.820 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 4.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.46% | ÷1.087 | ×0.760 | ×0.978 | ×0.988 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.36% | ÷1.118 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 3.54% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 106, 2B 109, 3B 117, K 96, BB 131 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .331 → .260; ISO .164 → .129; BABIP .317 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ASouth Bend Silver Hawks · 299 PAwOBA .355 → .286 (−69)K% 12.7% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.71% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.03% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.89% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×0.990 | 18.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.22% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×0.978 | ×0.990 | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×0.978 | ×0.990 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.78% | ÷0.903 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 1.56% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 108, 3B 99, K 100, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .355 → .286; ISO .156 → .129; BABIP .327 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Visalia Rawhide · 279 PAwOBA .327 → .266 (−61)K% 14.0% → 18.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.98% | ÷1.021 | ×1.340 | — | — | 18.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.02% | ÷1.004 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 3.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.36% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.27% | ÷1.025 | ×0.910 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 19.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.91% | ÷1.112 | ×0.820 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×0.973 | ×0.998 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.044 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 4.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 105, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 104, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .327 → .266; ISO .174 → .142; BABIP .300 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 ASouth Bend Silver Hawks · 268 PAwOBA .302 → .237 (−65)K% 18.3% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.28% | ÷0.977 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.48% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | — | 3.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.24% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.36% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | — | 12.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.26% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | ×0.971 | — | 7.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.971 | — | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.59% | ÷0.904 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.18% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .302 → .237; ISO .184 → .145; BABIP .262 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .