Edgar Duran

PosSS

B/TS/R

Born1991-02-10

Age (2027)36

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLLAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2022	31	INTLBravos de Mar…	179	.230/.341/.331	3	0	91	—
2023	32	INTLBravos de Mar…	144	.276/.413/.517	6	1	162	—
2024	33	INTLBravos de Mar…	44	.132/.250/.263	1	0	50	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2008	17	ROK	VSL Phillies	—	183	167	38	5	0	0	7	23	2	4	6	228	267	257	525	30	262	13	4	233	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	95	86	19	5	0	0	6	15	1	5	2	221	280	279	559	58	260	16	6	253	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	449	401	94	8	3	4	24	79	4	15	7	234	284	299	584	65	277	18	5	255	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+	Clearwater Threshers	—	451	403	101	13	4	7	28	69	8	10	10	251	312	355	667	104	282	15	6	294	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	113	101	23	6	0	1	9	22	1	1	2	228	297	317	614	89	278	19	8	277	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	450	405	91	19	2	4	22	91	9	12	6	225	280	311	591	86	276	20	5	261	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	49	42	10	2	2	0	6	10	0	0	2	238	333	381	714	143	312	20	12	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	47	41	7	1	0	0	5	11	0	0	1	171	261	195	456	24	233	23	11	217	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	366	335	75	10	2	4	21	57	4	6	6	224	278	301	579	78	258	16	6	261	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	155	135	22	6	0	0	12	23	2	0	0	163	242	207	449	44	196	15	8	207	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	182	168	43	5	2	3	8	25	1	3	5	256	294	363	657	107	286	14	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	175	149	33	4	0	1	23	32	1	0	0	221	329	268	598	47	276	18	13	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	18	15	4	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	267	353	267	620		444	39	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	249	218	63	10	0	1	23	24	4	6	1	289	367	349	716	60	320	10	9	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	138	121	35	8	0	1	12	28	3	0	2	289	368	380	748	91	366	20	9	337	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	182	153	38	7	3	5	21	29	3	3	0	248	350	431	782	183	266	16	12	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	96	84	25	2	2	0	9	8	3	1	0	298	385	369	754	71	329	8	9	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	INTL	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	119	102	28	5	1	2	15	19	2	1	2	275	378	402	780	127	321	16	13	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	179	148	34	6	0	3	21	32	4	0	1	230	341	331	672	101	263	18	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	144	116	32	4	3	6	23	29	4	1	1	276	413	517	930	241	321	20	16	407	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	44	38	5	0	1	1	4	12	2	0	0	132	250	263	513	132	160	27	9	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2008	17	ROK MLE	VSL Phillies	—	183	169	28	3	0	0	5	28	2	4	6	166	199	183	382	18	188	15	3	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	95	88	16	4	0	0	4	22	1	5	2	182	226	227	453	45	219	23	4	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	449	409	92	7	3	4	16	107	4	15	7	225	261	286	547	61	269	24	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	451	409	92	12	3	5	22	98	8	10	10	225	278	306	584	81	270	22	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	450	413	90	19	2	3	14	115	9	12	6	218	259	295	555	77	276	26	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	47	42	7	1	0	0	4	13	0	0	1	167	239	190	430	24	223	28	9	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	366	342	75	9	2	2	14	71	4	6	6	219	258	275	533	56	265	19	4	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	155	139	21	4	0	0	8	27	2	0	0	151	208	180	388	29	185	17	5	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	138	125	30	7	0	1	8	34	3	0	2	240	301	320	621	80	306	25	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK MLE	VSL Phillies	—	183	169	28	3	0	0	5	28	2	4	6	166	199	183	382	18	197	15	3	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK RAW	VSL Phillies	—	183	167	38	5	0	0	7	23	2	4	6	228	267	257	525	30	262	13	4	233	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	95	88	16	4	0	0	4	22	1	5	2	182	226	227	453	45	235	23	4	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	—	95	86	19	5	0	0	6	15	1	5	2	221	280	279	559	58	260	16	6	253	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	449	409	92	7	3	4	16	107	4	15	7	225	261	286	547	61	289	24	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A RAW	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	449	401	94	8	3	4	24	79	4	15	7	234	284	299	584	65	277	18	5	255	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	564	514	116	15	4	7	27	123	9	11	12	226	276	311	588	86	279	22	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	564	504	124	19	4	8	37	91	9	11	12	246	309	347	656	101	282	16	7	291	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	499	459	99	21	2	3	16	128	9	12	8	216	256	290	546	74	288	26	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	499	447	101	21	4	4	28	101	9	12	8	226	285	318	603	92	280	20	6	267	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	413	385	82	10	2	2	17	84	4	6	7	213	254	265	519	52	267	20	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	413	376	82	11	2	4	26	68	4	6	7	218	276	290	566	72	256	16	6	256	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	337	306	48	10	0	0	17	59	3	3	5	157	209	190	398	33	194	18	5	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	337	303	65	11	2	3	20	48	3	3	5	215	270	294	564	79	246	14	6	250	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	INTL MLE	Tigres de Aragua	—	175	149	33	4	0	1	23	32	1	0	0	221	329	268	598	47	276	18	13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	INTL RAW	Tigres de Aragua	—	175	149	33	4	0	1	23	32	1	0	0	221	329	268	598	47	276	18	13	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	INTL MLE	Tigres de Aragua	—	18	15	4	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	267	353	267	620		444	39	11	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	INTL RAW	Tigres de Aragua	—	18	15	4	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	267	353	267	620		444	39	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	INTL MLE	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	249	218	63	10	0	1	23	24	4	6	1	289	367	349	716	60	320	10	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	INTL RAW	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	249	218	63	10	0	1	23	24	4	6	1	289	367	349	716	60	320	10	9	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	320	289	68	16	0	2	18	78	6	3	2	235	294	311	605	76	307	24	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	320	274	73	15	3	6	33	57	6	3	2	266	358	409	767	142	309	18	10	339	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	INTL MLE	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	96	84	25	2	2	0	9	8	3	1	0	298	385	369	754	71	329	8	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	INTL RAW	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	96	84	25	2	2	0	9	8	3	1	0	298	385	369	754	71	329	8	9	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	INTL MLE	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	119	102	28	5	1	2	15	19	2	1	2	275	378	402	780	127	321	16	13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	INTL RAW	Tiburones de La Guaira	—	119	102	28	5	1	2	15	19	2	1	2	275	378	402	780	127	321	16	13	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	INTL MLE	Bravos de Margarita	—	179	148	34	6	0	3	21	32	4	0	1	230	341	331	672	101	263	18	12	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	INTL RAW	Bravos de Margarita	—	179	148	34	6	0	3	21	32	4	0	1	230	341	331	672	101	263	18	12	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	INTL MLE	Bravos de Margarita	—	144	116	32	4	3	6	23	29	4	1	1	276	413	517	930	241	321	20	16	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	INTL RAW	Bravos de Margarita	—	144	116	32	4	3	6	23	29	4	1	1	276	413	517	930	241	321	20	16	407	162	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	INTL MLE	Bravos de Margarita	—	44	38	5	0	1	1	4	12	2	0	0	132	250	263	513	132	160	27	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	INTL RAW	Bravos de Margarita	—	44	38	5	0	1	1	4	12	2	0	0	132	250	263	513	132	160	27	9	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	17	ROK MLE	VSL Phillies	—	183	174	28	3	0	0	5	28	2	4	6	161	199	178	377	17	188	15	3	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	—	95	90	16	4	0	0	4	22	1	5	2	178	226	222	448	44	219	23	4	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Lakewood BlueClaws	—	449	426	92	7	3	4	16	107	4	15	7	216	261	275	536	59	269	24	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	564	523	116	15	4	7	27	123	9	11	12	222	276	306	582	84	270	22	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	499	471	99	21	2	3	16	128	9	12	8	210	256	282	539	72	276	26	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	413	389	82	10	2	2	17	84	4	6	7	211	254	262	516	51	260	20	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	337	314	48	10	0	0	17	59	3	3	5	153	209	185	393	32	185	18	5	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	320	293	68	16	0	2	18	78	6	3	2	232	294	307	601	75	306	24	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	3884	3489	773	117	18	32	240	792	58	68	54	222	283	293	576	71	274	20	6	170	1	-457	-8	+0	+42	+84	-34.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	129	20	3	5	40	133	10	11	9	221	282	291	573	70	274	20	6	170	1	-77	-1	+0	+7	+14	-5.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAOlmecas de Tabasco · 138 PAwOBA .331 → .268 (−62)K% 20.3% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.29%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	24.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷1.078	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.52%
HBP% /PA	2.17%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.03%
Singles /BIP	27.96%	÷1.056	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	23.20%
Doubles /BIP	8.60%	÷0.900	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	7.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.057	×0.920	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.08%	÷0.865	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.86%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 111, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .331 → .268; ISO .091 → .078; BABIP .366 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 155 PAwOBA .199 → .179 (−19)K% 14.8% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.84%	÷1.019	×1.200	—	—	17.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.10%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.07%
HBP% /PA	1.29%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.27%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷0.991	×0.930	×1.050	×1.048	14.75%
Doubles /BIP	5.36%	÷1.314	×0.830	×1.050	×1.048	3.72%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.921	×0.970	×1.050	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.845	×0.840	—	×1.048	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 98, 2B 163, 3B 84, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .199 → .179; ISO .044 → .033; BABIP .196 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAReading Fightin Phils · 366 PAwOBA .253 → .236 (−17)K% 15.6% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.57%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	19.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.46%	÷1.064	×0.700	—	×1.027	3.69%
HBP% /PA	1.09%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.95%
Singles /BIP	21.22%	÷0.974	×0.970	×1.026	×1.027	22.27%
Doubles /BIP	3.60%	÷0.984	×0.860	×1.026	×1.027	3.31%
Triples /BIP	0.72%	÷0.923	×0.950	×1.026	×1.027	0.78%
Home runs /BIP	1.44%	÷1.317	×0.780	—	×1.027	0.88%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 95, 2B 97, 3B 85, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .253 → .236; ISO .078 → .062; BABIP .258 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 47 PAwOBA .212 → .190 (−22)K% 23.4% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.40%	÷1.050	×1.200	—	—	26.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.64%	÷0.970	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.95%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.006	×0.930	—	×1.050	19.42%
Doubles /BIP	3.33%	÷0.999	×0.830	—	×1.050	2.91%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.136	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.922	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 127, K 110, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .212 → .190; ISO .024 → .022; BABIP .233 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAReading Fightin Phils · 450 PAwOBA .256 → .238 (−19)K% 20.2% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.22%	÷0.964	×1.220	—	—	25.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.67%	÷1.074	×0.700	—	×1.042	3.17%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	1.77%
Singles /BIP	21.02%	÷1.022	×0.970	×1.014	×1.042	21.07%
Doubles /BIP	6.05%	÷0.892	×0.860	×1.014	×1.042	6.16%
Triples /BIP	0.64%	÷1.144	×0.950	×1.014	×1.042	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	1.27%	÷1.205	×0.780	—	×1.042	0.86%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 129, K 93, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .256 → .238; ISO .086 → .076; BABIP .276 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Clearwater Threshers · 451 PAwOBA .291 → .258 (−33)K% 15.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.30%	÷0.995	×1.420	—	—	21.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.21%	÷0.995	×0.750	—	×1.027	4.80%
HBP% /PA	1.77%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	1.69%
Singles /BIP	23.05%	÷0.989	×0.920	×1.014	×1.027	22.33%
Doubles /BIP	3.89%	÷1.060	×0.960	×1.014	×1.027	3.67%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷0.958	×0.810	×1.014	×1.027	1.05%
Home runs /BIP	2.10%	÷1.148	×0.880	—	×1.027	1.65%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 92, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .291 → .258; ISO .104 → .086; BABIP .282 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 ALakewood BlueClaws · 449 PAwOBA .253 → .232 (−20)K% 17.6% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.59%	÷0.991	×1.340	—	—	23.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.35%	÷1.025	×0.660	—	×1.030	3.55%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	0.71%
Singles /BIP	24.53%	÷0.979	×0.920	×1.021	×1.030	24.23%
Doubles /BIP	2.48%	÷1.025	×0.820	×1.021	×1.030	2.09%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.078	×0.940	×1.021	×1.030	0.85%
Home runs /BIP	1.24%	÷0.880	×0.820	—	×1.030	1.19%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 116, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .253 → .232; ISO .065 → .059; BABIP .277 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 ROKGCL Phillies · 95 PAwOBA .252 → .196 (−56)K% 15.8% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.79%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	22.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.32%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	4.00%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.77%
Singles /BIP	19.72%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.039	×1.022	17.18%
Doubles /BIP	7.04%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.039	×1.022	5.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.039	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .252 → .196; ISO .058 → .043; BABIP .260 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .