Horacio Vasquez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 28 | AAASultanes de M… | 62 | .259/.271/.259 | 0 | 0 | 24 | — | .241/.254/.241 |
| 2015 | 29 | AAADelfines de C… | 148 | .231/.301/.292 | 1 | 2 | 33 | — | .201/.252/.261 |
| 2016 | 30 | AAADelfines de C… | 179 | .273/.290/.315 | 0 | 2 | 44 | — | .253/.266/.289 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 22 | AAA | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 262 | 240 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 254 | 290 | 346 | 636 | 92 | 284 | 12 | 4 | 275 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AAA | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 264 | 240 | 76 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 317 | 354 | 408 | 763 | 92 | 372 | 16 | 4 | 330 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 323 | 285 | 74 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 260 | 315 | 323 | 638 | 63 | 296 | 12 | 7 | 278 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 266 | 239 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 264 | 299 | 343 | 642 | 79 | 300 | 14 | 4 | 273 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 164 | 146 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 240 | 275 | 329 | 603 | 89 | 284 | 18 | 4 | 253 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 67 | 62 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 277 | 355 | 632 | 113 | 298 | 21 | 4 | 274 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA | Sultanes de Monterrey | — | 62 | 58 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 259 | 271 | 259 | 530 | 319 | 18 | 2 | 230 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 148 | 130 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 231 | 301 | 292 | 593 | 62 | 305 | 23 | 7 | 266 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 179 | 165 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 273 | 290 | 315 | 605 | 42 | 331 | 18 | 2 | 258 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 22 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 262 | 243 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 259 | 286 | 346 | 631 | 86 | 282 | 15 | 3 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 264 | 243 | 76 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 313 | 343 | 387 | 729 | 74 | 371 | 19 | 3 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 323 | 292 | 74 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 292 | 308 | 600 | 55 | 279 | 14 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 266 | 243 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 255 | 279 | 317 | 596 | 62 | 284 | 17 | 2 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 164 | 148 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 230 | 255 | 291 | 545 | 61 | 266 | 23 | 3 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 67 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 231 | 302 | 532 | 95 | 260 | 27 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sultanes de Monterrey | — | 62 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 254 | 241 | 496 | 289 | 23 | 2 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 148 | 134 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 201 | 252 | 261 | 513 | 60 | 260 | 26 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 179 | 166 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 266 | 289 | 555 | 36 | 296 | 21 | 2 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 262 | 243 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 259 | 286 | 346 | 631 | 86 | 299 | 15 | 3 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | AAA RAW | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 262 | 240 | 61 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 254 | 290 | 346 | 636 | 92 | 284 | 12 | 4 | 275 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 264 | 243 | 76 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 313 | 343 | 387 | 729 | 74 | 385 | 19 | 3 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AAA RAW | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 264 | 240 | 76 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 317 | 354 | 408 | 763 | 92 | 372 | 16 | 4 | 330 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 323 | 292 | 74 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 292 | 308 | 600 | 55 | 296 | 14 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA RAW | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 323 | 285 | 74 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 260 | 315 | 323 | 638 | 63 | 296 | 12 | 7 | 278 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 266 | 243 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 255 | 279 | 317 | 596 | 62 | 307 | 17 | 2 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA RAW | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 266 | 239 | 63 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 264 | 299 | 343 | 642 | 79 | 300 | 14 | 4 | 273 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 164 | 148 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 230 | 255 | 291 | 545 | 61 | 297 | 23 | 3 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA RAW | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 164 | 146 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 240 | 275 | 329 | 603 | 89 | 284 | 18 | 4 | 253 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 67 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 231 | 302 | 532 | 95 | 273 | 27 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA RAW | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 67 | 62 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 277 | 355 | 632 | 113 | 298 | 21 | 4 | 274 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sultanes de Monterrey | — | 62 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 241 | 254 | 241 | 496 | 318 | 23 | 2 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA RAW | Sultanes de Monterrey | — | 62 | 58 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 259 | 271 | 259 | 530 | 319 | 18 | 2 | 230 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 148 | 134 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 201 | 252 | 261 | 513 | 60 | 277 | 26 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA RAW | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 148 | 130 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 231 | 301 | 292 | 593 | 62 | 305 | 23 | 7 | 266 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 179 | 166 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 253 | 266 | 289 | 555 | 36 | 318 | 21 | 2 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA RAW | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 179 | 165 | 45 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 273 | 290 | 315 | 605 | 42 | 331 | 18 | 2 | 258 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 262 | 251 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 251 | 286 | 335 | 620 | 84 | 282 | 15 | 3 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 264 | 251 | 76 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 303 | 343 | 375 | 717 | 72 | 371 | 19 | 3 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 323 | 304 | 74 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 243 | 292 | 296 | 588 | 53 | 279 | 14 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 266 | 256 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 242 | 279 | 301 | 580 | 59 | 284 | 17 | 2 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 164 | 158 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 215 | 255 | 272 | 527 | 57 | 266 | 23 | 3 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | Guerreros de Oaxaca | — | 67 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 231 | 292 | 523 | 92 | 260 | 27 | 3 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sultanes de Monterrey | — | 62 | 61 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 230 | 254 | 230 | 484 | 289 | 23 | 2 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 148 | 138 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 252 | 254 | 505 | 58 | 260 | 26 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 30 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 179 | 174 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 241 | 266 | 276 | 542 | 34 | 296 | 21 | 2 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1735 | 1590 | 405 | 71 | 2 | 8 | 53 | 325 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 255 | 284 | 317 | 601 | 62 | 313 | 19 | 3 | 253 | 57 | -88 | -5 | +0 | +19 | +38 | -3.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 596 | 152 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 122 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 255 | 284 | 319 | 603 | 64 | 313 | 19 | 3 | 253 | 57 | -33 | -2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 179 PAwOBA .257 → .233 (−24)K% 18.4% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.44% | ÷1.030 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.23% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 1.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.015 | ×0.972 | 26.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.30% | ÷1.080 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×0.972 | 4.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 106, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .257 → .233; ISO .042 → .034; BABIP .331 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 148 PAwOBA .259 → .217 (−42)K% 23.0% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.97% | ÷1.049 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.43% | ÷1.102 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 4.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.095 | ×0.930 | ×1.015 | ×0.982 | 21.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.21% | ÷0.934 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×0.982 | 4.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.907 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.867 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.83% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 119, 2B 87, 3B 81, K 110, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .259 → .217; ISO .062 → .055; BABIP .305 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAASultanes de Monterrey · 62 PAwOBA .224 → .203 (−21)K% 17.7% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.74% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.61% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 1.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.91% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×0.980 | ×0.992 | 28.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.917 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 100, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 92, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .224 → .203; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .319 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAGuerreros de Oaxaca · 67 PAwOBA .266 → .215 (−52)K% 20.9% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.90% | ÷0.952 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.48% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.022 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×1.003 | 19.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.064 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.003 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.221 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.20% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 104, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 90, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .266 → .215; ISO .113 → .077; BABIP .298 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAGuerreros de Oaxaca · 164 PAwOBA .248 → .225 (−23)K% 17.7% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.68% | ÷0.931 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.27% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 2.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.985 | ×0.930 | ×1.025 | ×1.018 | 21.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.98% | ÷1.118 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | ×1.018 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.045 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.17% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 97, 2B 124, 3B 92, K 86, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .248 → .225; ISO .089 → .068; BABIP .284 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAAGuerreros de Oaxaca · 266 PAwOBA .268 → .251 (−17)K% 13.5% → 16.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.53% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.76% | ÷1.169 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 2.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.65% | ÷1.031 | ×0.930 | ×1.037 | ×1.033 | 22.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.40% | ÷1.025 | ×0.830 | ×1.037 | ×1.033 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.037 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.70% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 93, BB 134 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .268 → .251; ISO .079 → .068; BABIP .300 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAAGuerreros de Oaxaca · 323 PAwOBA .275 → .258 (−17)K% 12.1% → 14.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.07% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 14.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.50% | ÷1.074 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 4.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.76% | ÷1.046 | ×0.930 | ×1.046 | ×1.048 | 22.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.077 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.048 | 6.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.098 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 109, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 105, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .275 → .258; ISO .063 → .057; BABIP .296 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAAGuerreros de Oaxaca · 264 PAwOBA .321 → .312 (−9)K% 15.5% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 3.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.040 | ×1.050 | 31.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.040 | ×1.050 | 5.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×1.050 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.11% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .321 → .312; ISO .092 → .079; BABIP .372 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).