Tyler Holt
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | AAACLE | 431 | .302/.387/.370 | 0 | 25 | 93 | — | .290/.349/.355 | |
| 2015 | 26 | MLBCIN | 34 | .097/.176/.097 | 0 | 1 | -20 | -0.2 | ||
| 2016 | 27 | MLBCIN | 208 | .235/.328/.296 | 0 | 4 | 78 | -0.3 | ||
| 2017 | 28 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 72 | .156/.239/.156 | 0 | 6 | -13 | — | .136/.197/.136 | |
| 2018 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 21 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 89 | 70 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 286 | 419 | 457 | 876 | 171 | 333 | 13 | 17 | 379 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | Kinston Indians | — | 536 | 449 | 114 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 78 | 106 | 2 | 34 | 6 | 254 | 367 | 325 | 692 | 71 | 327 | 20 | 15 | 319 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Akron Aeros | — | 249 | 216 | 54 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 41 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 250 | 326 | 292 | 618 | 42 | 307 | 16 | 10 | 280 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 362 | 315 | 83 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 39 | 62 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 263 | 352 | 340 | 692 | 76 | 328 | 17 | 11 | 315 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 69 | 60 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 300 | 358 | 300 | 658 | 346 | 14 | 7 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Akron Aeros | — | 589 | 521 | 139 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 55 | 90 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 267 | 340 | 359 | 699 | 92 | 317 | 15 | 9 | 313 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | — | 76 | 71 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 268 | 307 | 296 | 602 | 28 | 413 | 33 | 4 | 273 | 70 | -3 | -0 | +3 | -5 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 272 | 227 | 70 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 45 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 308 | 416 | 401 | 817 | 93 | 378 | 17 | 14 | 371 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | — | 156 | 124 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 26 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 298 | 424 | 347 | 771 | 48 | 366 | 17 | 17 | 350 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 34 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 97 | 176 | 97 | 273 | 150 | 32 | 9 | 141 | -20 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 431 | 368 | 111 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 50 | 62 | 2 | 25 | 5 | 302 | 387 | 370 | 757 | 68 | 360 | 14 | 12 | 339 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | — | 208 | 179 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 235 | 328 | 296 | 625 | 61 | 318 | 23 | 11 | 286 | 78 | -5 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 25 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 130 | 167 | 130 | 297 | 150 | 12 | 4 | 137 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 28 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 47 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 171 | 277 | 171 | 447 | 259 | 30 | 13 | 224 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 318 | 281 | 64 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 84 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 228 | 307 | 274 | 581 | 46 | 323 | 26 | 9 | 268 | 67 | -12 | -1 | +0 | -3 | +7 | -0.9 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 89 | 75 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 253 | 349 | 400 | 749 | 147 | 304 | 19 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Kinston Indians | — | 536 | 480 | 101 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 47 | 151 | 2 | 34 | 6 | 210 | 284 | 267 | 550 | 56 | 297 | 28 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Akron Aeros | — | 249 | 223 | 54 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 51 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 242 | 302 | 278 | 580 | 36 | 298 | 20 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 362 | 330 | 72 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 24 | 91 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 218 | 279 | 279 | 558 | 61 | 295 | 25 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron Aeros | — | 589 | 538 | 135 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 38 | 112 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 251 | 304 | 336 | 640 | 86 | 301 | 19 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Indians | — | 76 | 71 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 268 | 307 | 296 | 602 | 28 | 413 | 33 | 4 | 272 | 70 | -3 | -0 | +3 | -5 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 272 | 239 | 67 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 53 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 280 | 361 | 360 | 720 | 79 | 347 | 19 | 10 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Akron RubberDucks | — | 156 | 132 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 33 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 280 | 371 | 326 | 697 | 45 | 347 | 21 | 12 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 34 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 97 | 176 | 97 | 273 | 150 | 32 | 9 | 139 | -20 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 431 | 386 | 112 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 33 | 74 | 2 | 25 | 5 | 290 | 349 | 355 | 704 | 65 | 345 | 17 | 8 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 208 | 179 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 235 | 328 | 296 | 625 | 61 | 318 | 23 | 11 | 284 | 78 | -5 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 25 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 130 | 167 | 130 | 297 | 137 | 16 | 4 | 118 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 28 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 47 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 140 | 213 | 140 | 352 | 230 | 38 | 9 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 89 | 75 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 253 | 349 | 400 | 749 | 147 | 317 | 19 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 89 | 70 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 286 | 419 | 457 | 876 | 171 | 333 | 13 | 17 | 379 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Kinston Indians | — | 536 | 480 | 101 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 47 | 151 | 2 | 34 | 6 | 210 | 284 | 267 | 550 | 56 | 303 | 28 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ RAW | Kinston Indians | — | 536 | 449 | 114 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 78 | 106 | 2 | 34 | 6 | 254 | 367 | 325 | 692 | 71 | 327 | 20 | 15 | 319 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 680 | 615 | 140 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 46 | 158 | 6 | 33 | 14 | 228 | 288 | 280 | 568 | 52 | 304 | 23 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 680 | 591 | 155 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 68 | 113 | 6 | 33 | 14 | 262 | 343 | 318 | 661 | 56 | 322 | 17 | 10 | 300 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron Aeros | — | 589 | 538 | 135 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 38 | 112 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 251 | 304 | 336 | 640 | 86 | 311 | 19 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA RAW | Akron Aeros | — | 589 | 521 | 139 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 55 | 90 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 267 | 340 | 359 | 699 | 92 | 317 | 15 | 9 | 313 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 504 | 442 | 123 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 49 | 111 | 4 | 33 | 8 | 278 | 356 | 339 | 695 | 61 | 364 | 22 | 10 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 504 | 422 | 126 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 69 | 96 | 4 | 33 | 8 | 299 | 402 | 367 | 769 | 69 | 379 | 19 | 14 | 349 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 465 | 417 | 115 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 36 | 85 | 2 | 26 | 5 | 276 | 336 | 336 | 672 | 60 | 344 | 18 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 465 | 399 | 114 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 53 | 73 | 2 | 26 | 5 | 286 | 371 | 348 | 720 | 63 | 348 | 16 | 11 | 325 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 208 | 179 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 235 | 328 | 296 | 625 | 61 | 318 | 23 | 11 | 284 | 78 | -5 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB RAW | Cincinnati Reds | — | 208 | 179 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 235 | 328 | 296 | 625 | 61 | 318 | 23 | 11 | 286 | 78 | -5 | -0 | -3 | +1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 72 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 136 | 197 | 136 | 334 | 205 | 31 | 7 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 72 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 156 | 239 | 156 | 396 | 213 | 24 | 10 | 194 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 89 | 78 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 244 | 349 | 385 | 733 | 141 | 304 | 19 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Kinston Indians | — | 536 | 482 | 101 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 47 | 151 | 2 | 34 | 6 | 210 | 284 | 266 | 549 | 56 | 297 | 28 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 680 | 623 | 140 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 46 | 158 | 6 | 33 | 14 | 225 | 288 | 276 | 564 | 51 | 296 | 23 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Akron Aeros | — | 589 | 543 | 135 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 38 | 112 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 249 | 304 | 333 | 637 | 85 | 301 | 19 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 504 | 446 | 123 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 49 | 111 | 4 | 33 | 8 | 276 | 356 | 336 | 692 | 61 | 357 | 22 | 10 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 465 | 424 | 115 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 36 | 85 | 2 | 26 | 5 | 271 | 336 | 330 | 666 | 59 | 331 | 18 | 8 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cincinnati Reds | — | 208 | 181 | 42 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 232 | 328 | 293 | 621 | 61 | 318 | 23 | 11 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 72 | 67 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 134 | 197 | 134 | 332 | 198 | 31 | 7 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 318 | 281 | 64 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 84 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 228 | 307 | 274 | 581 | 46 | 323 | 26 | 9 | 268 | 71 | -12 | -1 | +0 | -3 | +7 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 574 | 130 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 59 | 172 | 6 | 14 | 10 | 226 | 305 | 272 | 576 | 45 | 322 | 26 | 9 | 268 | 71 | -25 | -1 | +0 | -6 | +14 | -1.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3143 | 2812 | 684 | 98 | 33 | 5 | 254 | 704 | 20 | 169 | 47 | 243 | 310 | 307 | 617 | 64 | 320 | 22 | 8 | 272 | 71 | -12 | -1 | +0 | -3 | +7 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 141 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 53 | 146 | 4 | 35 | 10 | 242 | 310 | 306 | 616 | 64 | 320 | 22 | 8 | 272 | 71 | -25 | -1 | +0 | -6 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AATulsa Drillers · 47 PAwOBA .219 → .165 (−54)K% 29.8% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.79% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 38.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.77% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 8.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 22.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.295 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 91, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .219 → .165; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .259 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 25 PAwOBA .133 → .118 (−16)K% 12.0% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.290 | — | — | 15.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 2.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.992 | 13.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .133 → .118; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .150 → .137. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAColumbus Clippers · 431 PAwOBA .332 → .306 (−26)K% 14.4% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.39% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.60% | ÷1.068 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.46% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.005 | ×0.930 | ×1.028 | ×1.018 | 28.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.019 | ×0.830 | ×1.028 | ×1.018 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.31% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.028 | ×1.018 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.217 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 102, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .332 → .306; ISO .068 → .067; BABIP .360 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAColumbus Clippers · 272 PAwOBA .362 → .317 (−45)K% 16.5% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.54% | ÷1.016 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.34% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.12% | ÷1.034 | ×0.930 | ×1.016 | ×1.033 | 27.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.24% | ÷1.047 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×1.033 | 6.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.028 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.93% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 103, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .362 → .317; ISO .093 → .080; BABIP .378 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAkron RubberDucks · 156 PAwOBA .349 → .313 (−35)K% 16.7% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.965 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.31% | ÷1.008 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 12.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.65% | ÷1.064 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | ×0.998 | 30.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.08% | ÷0.992 | ×0.860 | ×1.042 | ×0.998 | 3.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | ×0.998 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.881 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 113, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .349 → .313; ISO .048 → .050; BABIP .366 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAkron Aeros · 589 PAwOBA .307 → .275 (−31)K% 15.3% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.28% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.34% | ÷1.029 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.51% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.13% | ÷1.037 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 23.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.57% | ÷1.001 | ×0.860 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.09% | ÷1.049 | ×0.950 | ×1.019 | ×1.012 | 1.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.46% | ÷0.879 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.42% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 110, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .307 → .275; ISO .092 → .085; BABIP .317 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Carolina Mudcats · 362 PAwOBA .307 → .246 (−61)K% 17.1% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.13% | ÷0.963 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.77% | ÷1.035 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 6.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.054 | ×0.940 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 23.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.95% | ÷1.054 | ×0.830 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 3.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.77% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.026 | ×0.998 | 2.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.895 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 111, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .307 → .246; ISO .076 → .064; BABIP .328 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAkron Aeros · 249 PAwOBA .274 → .255 (−20)K% 16.5% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.47% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.64% | ÷0.966 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 7.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.86% | ÷1.027 | ×0.970 | ×1.019 | ×1.027 | 26.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.035 | ×0.860 | ×1.019 | ×1.027 | 2.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.142 | ×0.950 | ×1.019 | ×1.027 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 128, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .274 → .255; ISO .042 → .037; BABIP .307 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).