Ryan LaMarre

PosLF

B/TR/L

Born1988-11-21

Age (2027)38

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2023

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2021	32	AAAScranton/Wilk…	240	.277/.379/.447	6	14	76	—	.218/.296/.319
2021	32	MLBNYY	24	.190/.292/.476	2	1	107	-0.2
2022	33	AAAScranton/Wilk…	186	.297/.411/.458	5	7	89	—	.233/.324/.337
2023	34	AAAMIN	108	.204/.315/.366	3	7	26	—	.143/.222/.235
2024	35	No MLB games played
2025	36	No MLB games played
2026	37	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018-2021

Speed84

Barrel%28

xwOBA26

Avg EV25

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	21	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	29	27	6	2	0	1	2	4	0	1	1	222	276	407	683	185	227	14	7	302	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A	Dayton Dragons	—	263	227	64	11	0	5	21	53	12	18	7	282	373	396	770	115	345	20	8	348	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	AA	Carolina Mudcats	—	19	15	4	1	0	0	3	3	1	3	0	267	421	333	754	67	333	16	16	359	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+	Bakersfield Blaze	—	504	445	124	17	3	6	42	97	8	52	14	279	351	371	722	92	339	19	8	323	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	558	482	127	22	3	5	60	119	10	30	10	263	357	353	710	89	339	21	11	323	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	515	451	111	19	4	10	44	93	11	22	13	246	328	373	701	126	288	18	9	313	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	59	50	10	2	0	1	8	17	0	1	1	200	310	300	610	100	281	29	14	281	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	26	25	2	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	80	80	80	160		125	35	0	70	-67	-5	+0	+2	+1	+1	-0.2
2015	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	329	300	77	17	1	8	18	88	5	11	4	257	310	400	710	143	333	27	5	311	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	358	317	96	15	0	10	28	80	8	17	6	303	374	445	819	142	371	22	8	362	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	194	170	42	3	3	0	17	58	4	9	6	247	330	300	630	53	372	30	9	289	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	180	165	46	11	0	2	10	53	2	2	2	279	328	382	710	103	389	29	6	314	98	-0	-0	+2	+1	+4	0.6
2018	29	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	104	93	25	6	3	0	9	29	1	3	0	269	340	398	738	129	391	28	9	327	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	26	23	5	0	0	2	3	5	0	1	1	217	308	478	786	261	188	19	12	345	119	+1	-0	+0	+2	+1	0.3
2019	30	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	455	405	126	24	8	9	38	118	9	19	9	311	383	477	859	165	416	26	8	379	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	MLB	New York Yankees	—	24	21	4	0	0	2	2	6	1	1	0	190	292	476	768	286	154	25	8	338	107	+0	+0	-0	-3	+1	-0.2
2021	32	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	240	206	57	13	2	6	27	62	7	14	6	277	379	447	826	170	370	26	11	371	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	186	155	46	10	0	5	21	42	9	7	2	297	411	458	869	161	376	23	11	390	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA	St. Paul Saints	—	108	93	19	6	0	3	12	33	3	7	1	204	315	366	680	161	281	31	11	311	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	256	234	57	11	0	6	15	73	3	4	3	244	298	368	665	124	323	29	6	295	86	-4	-0	+3	+1	+6	0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	21	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	29	28	6	2	0	1	1	6	0	1	1	214	241	393	634	179	206	21	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	263	235	58	8	0	4	13	72	12	18	7	247	319	332	651	85	326	27	5	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	AA MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	19	16	4	1	0	0	2	4	1	3	0	250	368	312	681	62	309	21	11	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	—	504	459	114	14	3	5	29	131	8	52	14	248	304	325	629	76	319	26	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	558	501	122	22	3	3	41	141	10	30	10	244	313	317	631	74	322	25	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	515	465	100	17	3	8	30	108	11	22	13	215	279	316	595	101	254	21	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	59	52	8	1	0	1	6	22	0	1	1	154	241	231	472	77	254	37	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	26	25	2	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	80	80	80	160		125	35	0	69	-67	-5	+0	+2	+1	+1	-0.2
2015	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	329	306	64	13	1	6	12	107	5	11	4	209	251	317	568	108	288	33	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	358	327	89	13	0	8	18	98	8	17	6	272	326	385	711	113	353	27	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	194	176	36	2	3	0	11	75	4	9	6	205	267	250	517	45	339	39	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	180	165	46	11	0	2	10	53	2	2	2	279	328	382	710	103	389	29	6	313	98	-0	-0	+2	+1	+4	0.6
2018	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	104	97	21	5	2	0	5	35	1	3	0	216	262	309	571	93	339	34	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	26	23	5	0	0	2	3	5	0	1	1	217	308	478	786	261	188	19	12	344	119	+1	-0	+0	+2	+1	0.3
2019	30	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	455	419	98	18	6	8	24	149	9	19	9	234	290	363	653	129	336	33	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	24	21	4	0	0	2	2	6	1	1	0	190	292	476	768	286	154	25	8	327	107	+0	+0	-0	-3	+1	-0.2
2021	32	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	240	216	47	11	1	3	17	75	7	14	6	218	296	319	615	102	321	31	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	186	163	38	8	0	3	13	50	9	7	2	233	324	337	662	104	315	27	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	108	98	14	3	0	2	7	41	3	7	1	143	222	235	457	92	215	38	6	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	292	263	64	10	0	5	14	78	12	19	8	243	311	338	650	95	324	27	5	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	292	254	70	13	0	6	23	57	12	19	8	276	363	398	761	122	332	20	8	343	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	523	475	117	15	3	5	31	135	9	55	14	246	305	322	627	76	328	26	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	523	460	128	18	3	6	45	100	9	55	14	278	353	370	723	91	339	19	9	325	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	558	501	122	22	3	3	41	141	10	30	10	244	313	317	631	74	331	25	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	558	482	127	22	3	5	60	119	10	30	10	263	357	353	710	89	339	21	11	323	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	515	465	100	17	3	8	30	108	11	22	13	215	279	316	595	101	261	21	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	515	451	111	19	4	10	44	93	11	22	13	246	328	373	701	126	288	18	9	313	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	59	52	8	1	0	1	6	22	0	1	1	154	241	231	472	77	241	37	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	59	50	10	2	0	1	8	17	0	1	1	200	310	300	610	100	281	29	14	281	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	355	331	66	13	1	6	12	116	5	11	4	199	239	299	538	100	283	33	3	237	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	355	325	79	17	1	8	18	97	5	11	4	243	293	375	668	132	318	27	5	294	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	358	327	89	13	0	8	18	98	8	17	6	272	326	385	711	113	358	27	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA RAW	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	358	317	96	15	0	10	28	80	8	17	6	303	374	445	819	142	371	22	8	362	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	194	176	36	2	3	0	11	75	4	9	6	205	267	250	517	45	353	39	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	—	194	170	42	3	3	0	17	58	4	9	6	247	330	300	630	53	372	30	9	289	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	284	262	66	15	2	2	15	88	3	5	2	252	300	347	647	95	366	31	5	292	84	-6	+0	+2	+1	+6	0.4
2018	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	284	258	71	17	3	2	19	82	3	5	2	275	332	388	720	112	390	29	7	319	84	-6	+0	+2	+1	+6	0.4
2019	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	481	442	103	18	6	10	27	154	9	20	10	233	291	369	660	136	331	32	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	481	428	131	24	8	11	41	123	9	20	10	306	379	477	855	171	404	26	9	377	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	264	237	51	11	1	5	19	81	8	15	6	215	295	333	629	118	305	31	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	264	227	61	13	2	8	29	68	8	15	6	269	371	449	821	181	351	26	11	368	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	186	163	38	8	0	3	13	50	9	7	2	233	324	337	662	104	315	27	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	186	155	46	10	0	5	21	42	9	7	2	297	411	458	869	161	376	23	11	390	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	108	98	14	3	0	2	7	41	3	7	1	143	222	235	457	92	218	38	6	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	—	108	93	19	6	0	3	12	33	3	7	1	204	315	366	680	161	281	31	11	311	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	292	264	64	10	0	5	14	78	12	19	8	242	311	337	649	95	314	27	5	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	523	478	117	15	3	5	31	135	9	55	14	245	305	320	625	75	319	26	6	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	558	502	122	22	3	3	41	141	10	30	10	243	313	317	630	74	322	25	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	515	469	100	17	3	8	30	108	11	22	13	213	279	313	592	100	254	21	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	59	53	8	1	0	1	6	22	0	1	1	151	241	226	468	75	254	37	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	355	335	66	13	1	6	12	116	5	11	4	197	239	296	534	99	276	33	3	237	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	358	329	89	13	0	8	18	98	8	17	6	271	326	383	709	112	353	27	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	194	177	36	2	3	0	11	75	4	9	6	203	267	249	516	45	339	39	6	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	284	264	66	15	2	2	15	88	3	5	2	250	300	345	645	95	371	31	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	481	442	103	18	6	10	27	154	9	20	10	233	291	369	660	136	328	32	6	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	264	235	51	11	1	5	19	81	8	15	6	217	295	336	632	119	306	31	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	186	162	38	8	0	3	13	50	9	7	2	235	324	340	664	105	315	27	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	—	108	97	14	3	0	2	7	41	3	7	1	144	222	237	459	93	215	38	6	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	256	234	57	11	0	6	15	73	3	4	3	244	298	368	665	124	323	29	6	295	71	-4	-0	+3	+1	+6	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	594	145	28	0	15	38	185	8	10	8	244	299	367	666	123	323	28	6	295	71	-11	-1	+8	+3	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4177	3792	874	148	22	58	244	1187	91	218	83	230	293	327	620	97	317	28	6	274	71	-4	-0	+3	+1	+6	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	136	23	3	9	38	185	14	34	13	231	293	325	618	95	317	28	6	274	71	-11	-1	+8	+3	+14	1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 108 PAwOBA .303 → .207 (−96)K% 30.6% → 37.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.56%	÷0.973	×1.200	—	—	37.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.067	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.75%
HBP% /PA	2.78%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	2.45%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.964	×0.930	×0.994	×0.940	15.02%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.341	×0.830	×0.994	×0.940	5.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.977	×0.970	×0.994	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.00%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×0.940	3.26%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .303 → .207; ISO .161 → .096; BABIP .281 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 186 PAwOBA .382 → .300 (−83)K% 22.6% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.58%	÷1.001	×1.200	—	—	27.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.29%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.87%
HBP% /PA	4.84%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	4.28%
Singles /BIP	27.43%	÷1.047	×0.930	×1.031	×0.940	23.62%
Doubles /BIP	8.85%	÷0.988	×0.830	×1.031	×0.940	7.20%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.031	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.42%	÷1.006	×0.700	—	×0.940	2.89%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .382 → .300; ISO .161 → .118; BABIP .376 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 240 PAwOBA .360 → .281 (−79)K% 25.8% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.83%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	31.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.83%	÷0.973	×0.690	—	×0.942	7.23%
HBP% /PA	2.92%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	2.58%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.974	×0.930	×1.002	×0.942	22.52%
Doubles /BIP	9.03%	÷0.915	×0.830	×1.002	×0.942	7.73%
Triples /BIP	1.39%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.002	×0.942	1.05%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷1.149	×0.700	—	×0.942	2.39%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 95, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .360 → .281; ISO .170 → .117; BABIP .370 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 455 PAwOBA .372 → .283 (−89)K% 25.9% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.93%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	32.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.35%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.29%
HBP% /PA	1.98%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.79%
Singles /BIP	29.62%	÷1.038	×0.930	×0.950	×0.962	24.26%
Doubles /BIP	8.36%	÷0.963	×0.830	×0.950	×0.962	6.59%
Triples /BIP	2.79%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.962	2.15%
Home runs /BIP	3.14%	÷0.899	×0.840	—	×0.962	2.82%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .372 → .283; ISO .165 → .131; BABIP .416 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 104 PAwOBA .316 → .255 (−60)K% 27.9% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.88%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	33.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.01%
HBP% /PA	0.96%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.88%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.030	×0.930	×1.032	×0.972	22.64%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷1.077	×0.830	×1.032	×0.972	7.25%
Triples /BIP	4.69%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.032	×0.972	3.97%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.319	×0.840	—	×0.972	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .316 → .255; ISO .129 → .102; BABIP .391 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANashville Sounds · 194 PAwOBA .284 → .231 (−53)K% 29.9% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.90%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	38.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.76%	÷1.029	×0.710	—	×0.982	5.94%
HBP% /PA	2.06%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	1.98%
Singles /BIP	32.14%	÷0.984	×0.900	×1.026	×0.982	29.63%
Doubles /BIP	2.68%	÷1.021	×0.810	×1.026	×0.982	2.14%
Triples /BIP	2.68%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.026	×0.982	2.43%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.868	×0.780	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .284 → .231; ISO .053 → .043; BABIP .372 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 358 PAwOBA .357 → .316 (−41)K% 22.3% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.35%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	27.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.54%	÷1.007	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.13%
HBP% /PA	2.23%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.08%
Singles /BIP	29.96%	÷0.957	×0.930	×1.008	×0.992	29.10%
Doubles /BIP	6.33%	÷0.923	×0.830	×1.008	×0.992	5.69%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.912	×0.970	×1.008	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.22%	÷0.994	×0.840	—	×0.992	3.54%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 85, 3B 82, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .357 → .316; ISO .142 → .120; BABIP .371 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAALouisville Bats · 329 PAwOBA .306 → .250 (−56)K% 26.7% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.75%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	32.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.47%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.70%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.43%
Singles /BIP	24.06%	÷0.999	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	21.34%
Doubles /BIP	8.02%	÷0.975	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	6.50%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷0.922	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.47%
Home runs /BIP	3.77%	÷1.009	×0.840	—	×1.003	3.15%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .306 → .250; ISO .143 → .116; BABIP .333 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).