Chris Berset
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 26 | AA/A+2 orgs | 228 | .223/.320/.289 | 2 | 0 | 43 | — | .194/.262/.238 |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 209 | .198/.270/.253 | 0 | 0 | 32 | — | .198/.250/.251 |
| 2016 | 28 | AAACIN | 320 | .249/.309/.294 | 2 | 1 | 56 | — | .245/.283/.285 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 106 | 86 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 244 | 381 | 337 | 718 | 93 | 290 | 15 | 14 | 335 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 221 | 177 | 38 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 215 | 362 | 311 | 673 | 96 | 255 | 16 | 15 | 316 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 26 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 346 | 227 | 573 | 263 | 12 | 12 | 283 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 188 | 161 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 217 | 323 | 360 | 683 | 143 | 229 | 14 | 12 | 309 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 62 | 55 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 262 | 273 | 535 | 91 | 200 | 10 | 10 | 244 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 159 | 137 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 248 | 344 | 394 | 738 | 146 | 278 | 16 | 12 | 330 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 161 | 139 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 187 | 285 | 201 | 486 | 14 | 230 | 17 | 11 | 233 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 67 | 58 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 310 | 403 | 500 | 903 | 190 | 333 | 12 | 10 | 401 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 163 | 142 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 218 | 288 | 268 | 556 | 49 | 261 | 15 | 7 | 249 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 46 | 40 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 205 | 200 | 405 | 75 | 167 | 26 | 4 | 185 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 320 | 289 | 72 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 57 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 249 | 309 | 294 | 603 | 45 | 300 | 18 | 8 | 274 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 106 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 174 | 276 | 239 | 515 | 65 | 218 | 22 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 221 | 187 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 187 | 303 | 257 | 559 | 70 | 231 | 22 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 26 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 308 | 217 | 525 | 255 | 15 | 8 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 188 | 167 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 192 | 274 | 305 | 580 | 114 | 208 | 19 | 9 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 62 | 57 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 230 | 263 | 493 | 88 | 174 | 11 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 159 | 144 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 201 | 268 | 306 | 573 | 104 | 236 | 21 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 161 | 146 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 178 | 241 | 192 | 432 | 14 | 225 | 21 | 7 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 67 | 60 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 313 | 350 | 663 | 117 | 273 | 16 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 163 | 146 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 219 | 269 | 267 | 536 | 48 | 251 | 18 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 46 | 41 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 182 | 195 | 377 | 73 | 153 | 33 | 2 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 320 | 298 | 73 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 283 | 285 | 569 | 40 | 300 | 22 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 106 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 174 | 276 | 239 | 515 | 65 | 221 | 22 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 106 | 86 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 244 | 381 | 337 | 718 | 93 | 290 | 15 | 14 | 335 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 221 | 187 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 187 | 303 | 257 | 559 | 70 | 245 | 22 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 221 | 177 | 38 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 36 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 215 | 362 | 311 | 673 | 96 | 255 | 16 | 15 | 316 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 190 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 195 | 278 | 295 | 573 | 100 | 223 | 19 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 214 | 183 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 219 | 325 | 344 | 670 | 126 | 233 | 14 | 12 | 306 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 221 | 202 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 188 | 248 | 287 | 535 | 99 | 220 | 19 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 221 | 192 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 229 | 321 | 359 | 680 | 130 | 253 | 14 | 11 | 306 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 228 | 205 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 271 | 244 | 515 | 44 | 248 | 20 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 228 | 197 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 223 | 320 | 289 | 609 | 66 | 261 | 16 | 11 | 283 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 209 | 187 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 193 | 245 | 241 | 486 | 48 | 247 | 22 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 209 | 182 | 36 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 198 | 270 | 253 | 523 | 55 | 242 | 18 | 6 | 235 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 320 | 298 | 73 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 283 | 285 | 569 | 40 | 309 | 22 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 320 | 289 | 72 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 57 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 249 | 309 | 294 | 603 | 45 | 300 | 18 | 8 | 274 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 106 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 174 | 276 | 239 | 515 | 65 | 218 | 22 | 8 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 221 | 188 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 49 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 186 | 303 | 255 | 558 | 69 | 231 | 22 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 214 | 190 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 195 | 278 | 295 | 573 | 100 | 214 | 19 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 221 | 203 | 38 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 187 | 248 | 286 | 533 | 99 | 219 | 19 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 228 | 206 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 199 | 271 | 243 | 514 | 44 | 239 | 20 | 7 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 209 | 194 | 36 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 186 | 245 | 232 | 477 | 46 | 229 | 22 | 4 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 320 | 301 | 73 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 283 | 282 | 566 | 40 | 300 | 22 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1519 | 1361 | 276 | 50 | 1 | 12 | 106 | 312 | 25 | 7 | 11 | 203 | 273 | 267 | 540 | 65 | 251 | 21 | 7 | 240 | 49 | -93 | -3 | +0 | +27 | +33 | -3.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 117 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 45 | 134 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 201 | 271 | 263 | 534 | 62 | 249 | 21 | 7 | 240 | 49 | -40 | -1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAALouisville Bats · 320 PAwOBA .267 → .251 (−15)K% 17.8% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.81% | ÷0.984 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.19% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.16% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 27.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.02% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 2.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.86% | ÷0.882 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 0.81% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 90, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .267 → .251; ISO .045 → .040; BABIP .300 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAALouisville Bats · 163 PAwOBA .243 → .230 (−14)K% 15.3% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.34% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.13% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.84% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 20.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.98% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 5.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .243 → .230; ISO .049 → .046; BABIP .261 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 46 PAwOBA .189 → .161 (−28)K% 26.1% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 2.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 3.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 6.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷0.979 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 9.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 96, 3B 81, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .189 → .161; ISO .075 → .069; BABIP .167 → .153. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 161 PAwOBA .231 → .204 (−27)K% 17.4% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.39% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.18% | ÷1.051 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 7.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 21.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.80% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .231 → .204; ISO .014 → .014; BABIP .230 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 67 PAwOBA .391 → .299 (−91)K% 11.9% → 16.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.94% | ÷0.961 | ×1.340 | — | — | 16.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.45% | ÷0.944 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 7.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.99% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 2.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 18.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 7.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×0.999 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.421 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 2.51% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 92, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .391 → .299; ISO .190 → .131; BABIP .333 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 159 PAwOBA .322 → .252 (−69)K% 15.7% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.72% | ÷0.977 | ×1.340 | — | — | 21.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.95% | ÷1.101 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 7.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.64% | ÷0.991 | ×0.910 | ×0.988 | ×0.978 | 17.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.034 | ×0.820 | ×0.988 | ×0.978 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.760 | ×0.988 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.107 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 2.90% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 93, K 95, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .322 → .252; ISO .146 → .116; BABIP .278 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 62 PAwOBA .235 → .202 (−33)K% 9.7% → 11.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.68% | ÷1.050 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.06% | ÷0.966 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 8.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 8.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.109 | ×0.880 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 104, 2B 104, 3B 122, K 110, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .235 → .202; ISO .091 → .083; BABIP .200 → .174. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 188 PAwOBA .305 → .251 (−54)K% 14.4% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.36% | ÷0.999 | ×1.340 | — | — | 19.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.70% | ÷0.977 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 8.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.42% | ÷0.976 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 15.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.97% | ÷0.970 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 5.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.216 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 2.79% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .305 → .251; ISO .143 → .112; BABIP .229 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).