Skyler Stromsmoe
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 29 | AA/A+SF | 187 | .269/.357/.356 | 1 | 3 | 59 | — | .233/.297/.311 |
| 2014 | 30 | AASF | 372 | .233/.378/.294 | 0 | 12 | 57 | — | .201/.301/.251 |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA/A+SF | 152 | .260/.358/.344 | 0 | 3 | 55 | — | .206/.285/.265 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 23 | ROK | AZL Giants | — | 78 | 62 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 290 | 429 | 435 | 864 | 145 | 314 | 12 | 14 | 390 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 66 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 239 | 14 | 15 | 268 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2009 | 25 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 119 | 101 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 351 | 416 | 767 | 149 | 305 | 16 | 8 | 331 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 157 | 142 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 239 | 285 | 317 | 602 | 77 | 299 | 22 | 4 | 263 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 110 | 87 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 195 | 327 | 276 | 603 | 80 | 224 | 15 | 12 | 273 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 234 | 195 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 277 | 373 | 349 | 722 | 72 | 327 | 17 | 12 | 321 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 274 | 229 | 57 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 46 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 249 | 353 | 358 | 711 | 109 | 300 | 17 | 11 | 318 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 94 | 75 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 267 | 396 | 333 | 729 | 67 | 333 | 17 | 16 | 331 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 134 | 118 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 271 | 338 | 373 | 711 | 102 | 301 | 11 | 7 | 313 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 53 | 42 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 262 | 404 | 310 | 713 | 48 | 333 | 17 | 15 | 335 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 372 | 296 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 58 | 56 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 233 | 378 | 294 | 672 | 61 | 283 | 15 | 16 | 316 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 76 | 65 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 262 | 368 | 323 | 691 | 62 | 293 | 9 | 12 | 324 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 76 | 66 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 258 | 347 | 364 | 710 | 106 | 321 | 17 | 9 | 321 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 78 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 212 | 325 | 333 | 658 | 121 | 232 | 17 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 66 | 59 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 169 | 258 | 169 | 427 | 215 | 18 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2009 | 25 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 119 | 104 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 307 | 375 | 682 | 135 | 263 | 21 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 157 | 144 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 229 | 265 | 306 | 570 | 76 | 286 | 27 | 3 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 110 | 92 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 163 | 260 | 228 | 488 | 65 | 186 | 18 | 7 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 234 | 207 | 51 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 246 | 307 | 309 | 616 | 63 | 285 | 21 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 274 | 239 | 51 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 63 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 213 | 293 | 310 | 603 | 96 | 261 | 23 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 94 | 80 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 330 | 300 | 630 | 62 | 290 | 22 | 11 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 134 | 122 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 238 | 285 | 328 | 612 | 90 | 255 | 14 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 53 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 327 | 267 | 594 | 44 | 275 | 23 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 372 | 319 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 67 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 201 | 301 | 251 | 552 | 50 | 242 | 18 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 76 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 206 | 289 | 250 | 539 | 44 | 236 | 12 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 76 | 68 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 280 | 279 | 559 | 74 | 274 | 24 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 78 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 212 | 325 | 333 | 658 | 121 | 235 | 17 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | ROK RAW | AZL Giants | — | 78 | 62 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 290 | 429 | 435 | 864 | 145 | 314 | 12 | 14 | 390 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 66 | 59 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 169 | 258 | 169 | 427 | 213 | 18 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2008 | 24 | A RAW | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 66 | 55 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 239 | 14 | 15 | 268 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2009 | 25 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 119 | 104 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 307 | 375 | 682 | 135 | 291 | 21 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | A+ RAW | San Jose Giants | — | 119 | 101 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 267 | 351 | 416 | 767 | 149 | 305 | 16 | 8 | 331 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 236 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 62 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 203 | 263 | 275 | 538 | 72 | 258 | 23 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 267 | 229 | 51 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 50 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 223 | 302 | 301 | 603 | 79 | 268 | 19 | 7 | 267 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 234 | 207 | 51 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 246 | 307 | 309 | 616 | 63 | 304 | 21 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 234 | 195 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 277 | 373 | 349 | 722 | 72 | 327 | 17 | 12 | 321 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 319 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 84 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 216 | 300 | 301 | 601 | 85 | 283 | 23 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 368 | 304 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 44 | 62 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 253 | 364 | 352 | 716 | 99 | 308 | 17 | 12 | 322 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 167 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 228 | 291 | 299 | 591 | 72 | 272 | 17 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 187 | 160 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 269 | 357 | 356 | 713 | 88 | 309 | 13 | 10 | 319 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 372 | 319 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 67 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 201 | 301 | 251 | 552 | 50 | 250 | 18 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 372 | 296 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 58 | 56 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 233 | 378 | 294 | 672 | 61 | 283 | 15 | 16 | 316 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 152 | 136 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 206 | 285 | 265 | 549 | 59 | 255 | 17 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 152 | 131 | 34 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 260 | 358 | 344 | 701 | 84 | 306 | 13 | 11 | 323 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 78 | 67 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 209 | 325 | 328 | 653 | 119 | 232 | 17 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 66 | 59 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 169 | 258 | 169 | 427 | 215 | 18 | 9 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2009 | 25 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 119 | 108 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 307 | 361 | 668 | 130 | 263 | 21 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 267 | 246 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 62 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 195 | 263 | 264 | 527 | 69 | 245 | 23 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 234 | 214 | 51 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 238 | 307 | 299 | 606 | 61 | 285 | 21 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 327 | 69 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 84 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 211 | 300 | 294 | 593 | 83 | 268 | 23 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 170 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 224 | 291 | 294 | 585 | 71 | 261 | 17 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 372 | 323 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 67 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 198 | 301 | 248 | 549 | 50 | 242 | 18 | 9 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 152 | 136 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 206 | 285 | 265 | 549 | 59 | 255 | 17 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1843 | 1613 | 347 | 61 | 9 | 12 | 135 | 369 | 44 | 57 | 27 | 215 | 294 | 286 | 580 | 71 | 268 | 20 | 7 | 254 | 58 | -91 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +40 | -4.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 569 | 122 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 48 | 130 | 16 | 20 | 10 | 214 | 294 | 285 | 579 | 70 | 267 | 20 | 7 | 254 | 58 | -32 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAASacramento River Cats · 76 PAwOBA .317 → .252 (−65)K% 9.2% → 11.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.21% | ÷1.047 | ×1.290 | — | — | 11.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.84% | ÷0.960 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.962 | 8.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.962 | 2.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.41% | ÷1.003 | ×0.900 | ×0.962 | ×0.962 | 18.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.024 | ×0.810 | ×0.962 | ×0.962 | 5.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.810 | ×0.962 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 85, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .317 → .252; ISO .062 → .046; BABIP .293 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+San Jose Giants · 76 PAwOBA .313 → .247 (−66)K% 17.1% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.11% | ÷0.983 | ×1.340 | — | — | 23.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.21% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.940 | 6.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.940 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.87% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 17.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.21% | ÷1.071 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 9.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .313 → .247; ISO .106 → .079; BABIP .321 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 372 PAwOBA .312 → .253 (−59)K% 15.1% → 18.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.05% | ÷1.012 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.32% | ÷1.075 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 9.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.96% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 2.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.08% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×0.948 | 19.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.83% | ÷0.983 | ×0.860 | ×0.962 | ×0.948 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.061 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | ×0.948 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.918 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 112, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .312 → .253; ISO .061 → .053; BABIP .283 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 134 PAwOBA .307 → .256 (−51)K% 11.2% → 14.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.19% | ÷0.969 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.46% | ÷1.036 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 4.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.33% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×0.958 | ×0.958 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.80% | ÷1.030 | ×0.860 | ×0.958 | ×0.958 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.011 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | ×0.958 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.97% | ÷0.934 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 0.78% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 104, 2B 106, 3B 102, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .307 → .256; ISO .102 → .084; BABIP .301 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+San Jose Giants · 53 PAwOBA .328 → .254 (−74)K% 17.0% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.98% | ÷0.992 | ×1.340 | — | — | 22.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.09% | ÷1.063 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.940 | 9.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.77% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.940 | 2.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.940 | 22.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.953 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.866 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 106, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 98, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .328 → .254; ISO .048 → .040; BABIP .333 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 274 PAwOBA .311 → .259 (−51)K% 16.8% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.79% | ÷0.945 | ×1.290 | — | — | 22.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.58% | ÷1.068 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 6.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.92% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 2.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.31% | ÷1.001 | ×0.900 | ×0.996 | ×0.992 | 18.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.65% | ÷0.964 | ×0.810 | ×0.996 | ×0.992 | 6.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷0.940 | ×0.810 | ×0.996 | ×0.992 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 100, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 89, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .311 → .259; ISO .109 → .095; BABIP .300 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+San Jose Giants · 94 PAwOBA .327 → .267 (−60)K% 17.0% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.02% | ÷1.001 | ×1.340 | — | — | 22.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.96% | ÷1.047 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.948 | 10.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.948 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.12% | ÷0.994 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×0.948 | 23.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷0.926 | ×0.820 | ×1.009 | ×0.948 | 4.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.009 | ×0.948 | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 99, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 100, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .327 → .267; ISO .067 → .058; BABIP .333 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 234 PAwOBA .317 → .268 (−49)K% 16.7% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.081 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.85% | ÷1.075 | ×0.970 | ×1.000 | ×0.978 | 25.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.048 | ×0.860 | ×1.000 | ×0.978 | 3.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.140 | ×0.950 | ×1.000 | ×0.978 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.081 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.91% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 115, 2B 110, 3B 128, K 95, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .317 → .268; ISO .072 → .059; BABIP .327 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).