Nelson Perez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | INTLEstrellas de … | 16 | .267/.312/.400 | 0 | 0 | 101 | — |
| 2016 | 28 | INTLYaquis de Obr… | 38 | .206/.289/.382 | 1 | 0 | 89 | — |
| 2019 | 31 | INTLTigres de Ara… | 79 | .261/.338/.391 | 2 | 0 | 104 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 19 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 163 | 155 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 252 | 288 | 413 | 701 | 161 | 333 | 28 | 4 | 309 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | ROK | AZL Cubs | — | 168 | 154 | 47 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 305 | 348 | 656 | 1.003 | 351 | 336 | 21 | 5 | 416 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 458 | 427 | 107 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 130 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 251 | 292 | 391 | 683 | 141 | 329 | 28 | 5 | 300 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ | Daytona Cubs | — | 87 | 80 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 163 | 221 | 287 | 508 | 125 | 235 | 33 | 6 | 227 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A | Peoria Chiefs | — | 325 | 305 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 92 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 289 | 330 | 462 | 793 | 174 | 379 | 28 | 5 | 349 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 41 | 34 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 294 | 400 | 500 | 900 | 206 | 450 | 34 | 15 | 388 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 262 | 237 | 59 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 249 | 315 | 430 | 746 | 181 | 354 | 33 | 8 | 329 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ | Daytona Cubs | — | 108 | 101 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 327 | 370 | 505 | 875 | 178 | 460 | 31 | 6 | 386 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 55 | 48 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 345 | 292 | 637 | 42 | 324 | 20 | 11 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 142 | 127 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 205 | 284 | 402 | 685 | 197 | 239 | 25 | 9 | 302 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ | Daytona Cubs | — | 313 | 263 | 73 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 41 | 94 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 278 | 385 | 494 | 879 | 217 | 383 | 30 | 13 | 384 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | INTL | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 115 | 84 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 447 | 417 | 864 | 167 | 321 | 24 | 25 | 395 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA | Acereros del Norte | — | 338 | 290 | 85 | 8 | 4 | 17 | 45 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 293 | 392 | 524 | 916 | 231 | 324 | 19 | 13 | 401 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | INTL | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 83 | 68 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 162 | 287 | 279 | 567 | 118 | 214 | 31 | 14 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Piratas de Campeche | — | 33 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 242 | 375 | 617 | 156 | 300 | 33 | 3 | 272 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | INTL | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 16 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 400 | 713 | 133 | 571 | 50 | 6 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | INTL | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 289 | 382 | 672 | 176 | 316 | 37 | 11 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | INTL | Tigres de Aragua | — | 79 | 69 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 338 | 391 | 729 | 130 | 327 | 25 | 9 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 163 | 158 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 177 | 202 | 291 | 494 | 114 | 270 | 40 | 2 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 168 | 157 | 34 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 50 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 217 | 250 | 452 | 702 | 236 | 261 | 30 | 3 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 458 | 435 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 177 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 198 | 228 | 299 | 527 | 101 | 297 | 39 | 3 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 87 | 81 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 136 | 186 | 247 | 433 | 111 | 214 | 47 | 5 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 325 | 311 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 124 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 256 | 344 | 600 | 119 | 347 | 38 | 3 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 262 | 245 | 48 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 112 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 196 | 242 | 335 | 577 | 139 | 321 | 43 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 108 | 104 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 278 | 356 | 634 | 106 | 422 | 42 | 3 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 142 | 132 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 167 | 220 | 326 | 546 | 159 | 205 | 31 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | Daytona Cubs | — | 313 | 275 | 55 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 127 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 200 | 288 | 335 | 623 | 135 | 326 | 41 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Acereros del Norte | — | 338 | 311 | 80 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 24 | 79 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 257 | 315 | 441 | 755 | 183 | 300 | 23 | 7 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Piratas de Campeche | — | 33 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 212 | 344 | 556 | 156 | 264 | 39 | 3 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 163 | 158 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 177 | 202 | 291 | 494 | 114 | 281 | 40 | 2 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 163 | 155 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 252 | 288 | 413 | 701 | 161 | 333 | 28 | 4 | 309 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 168 | 157 | 34 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 50 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 217 | 250 | 452 | 702 | 236 | 269 | 30 | 3 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Cubs | — | 168 | 154 | 47 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 305 | 348 | 656 | 1.003 | 351 | 336 | 21 | 5 | 416 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 458 | 435 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 177 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 198 | 228 | 299 | 527 | 101 | 305 | 39 | 3 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A RAW | Peoria Chiefs | — | 458 | 427 | 107 | 19 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 130 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 251 | 292 | 391 | 683 | 141 | 329 | 28 | 5 | 300 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 453 | 430 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 182 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 205 | 240 | 316 | 556 | 112 | 329 | 40 | 4 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 453 | 419 | 111 | 25 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 135 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 265 | 316 | 432 | 748 | 167 | 358 | 30 | 6 | 329 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 425 | 400 | 86 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 180 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 215 | 258 | 350 | 608 | 135 | 358 | 42 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 425 | 386 | 104 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 132 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 269 | 333 | 433 | 766 | 163 | 377 | 31 | 8 | 340 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 570 | 511 | 96 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 214 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 188 | 264 | 325 | 589 | 137 | 286 | 38 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 570 | 474 | 120 | 22 | 7 | 20 | 83 | 157 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 253 | 372 | 456 | 828 | 203 | 330 | 28 | 15 | 366 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 421 | 385 | 99 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 30 | 99 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 257 | 314 | 439 | 753 | 182 | 301 | 24 | 7 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 421 | 358 | 96 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 57 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 268 | 372 | 478 | 849 | 209 | 306 | 21 | 14 | 373 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Piratas de Campeche | — | 33 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 212 | 344 | 556 | 156 | 278 | 39 | 3 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA RAW | Piratas de Campeche | — | 33 | 32 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 242 | 375 | 617 | 156 | 300 | 33 | 3 | 272 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | INTL MLE | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 16 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 400 | 713 | 133 | 571 | 50 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | INTL RAW | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 16 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 400 | 713 | 133 | 571 | 50 | 6 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | INTL MLE | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 289 | 382 | 672 | 176 | 316 | 37 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | INTL RAW | Yaquis de Obregon | — | 38 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 289 | 382 | 672 | 176 | 316 | 37 | 11 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | INTL MLE | Tigres de Aragua | — | 79 | 69 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 338 | 391 | 729 | 130 | 327 | 25 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | INTL RAW | Tigres de Aragua | — | 79 | 69 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 338 | 391 | 729 | 130 | 327 | 25 | 9 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 163 | 157 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 178 | 202 | 293 | 495 | 115 | 270 | 40 | 2 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Cubs | — | 168 | 159 | 34 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 50 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 214 | 250 | 447 | 697 | 233 | 261 | 30 | 3 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 458 | 438 | 86 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 177 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 196 | 228 | 297 | 525 | 100 | 297 | 39 | 3 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 453 | 430 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 182 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 205 | 240 | 316 | 556 | 112 | 319 | 40 | 4 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 425 | 399 | 86 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 180 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 216 | 258 | 351 | 609 | 135 | 350 | 42 | 4 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 570 | 512 | 96 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 214 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 188 | 264 | 324 | 588 | 137 | 288 | 38 | 8 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 421 | 386 | 99 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 30 | 99 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 256 | 314 | 438 | 752 | 181 | 300 | 24 | 7 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Piratas de Campeche | — | 33 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 212 | 344 | 556 | 156 | 264 | 39 | 3 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2824 | 2626 | 552 | 96 | 30 | 69 | 145 | 1023 | 26 | 20 | 22 | 210 | 258 | 348 | 607 | 138 | 310 | 36 | 5 | 249 | 55 | -152 | -5 | +0 | -30 | +61 | -12.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 127 | 22 | 7 | 16 | 33 | 235 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 210 | 258 | 349 | 607 | 139 | 309 | 36 | 5 | 249 | 55 | -35 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2014 AAAPiratas de Campeche · 33 PAwOBA .264 → .194 (−70)K% 33.3% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.03% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 1.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 17.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.010 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 7.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.245 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.68% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 102, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .264 → .194; ISO .156 → .096; BABIP .300 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAAcereros del Norte · 338 PAwOBA .385 → .332 (−53)K% 18.9% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.93% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.95% | ÷1.066 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.78% | ÷1.004 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×1.018 | 23.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.54% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.018 | 3.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.77% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.018 | 1.57% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.52% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 5.95% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 113, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .385 → .332; ISO .231 → .194; BABIP .324 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Daytona Cubs · 313 PAwOBA .377 → .280 (−97)K% 30.0% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.03% | ÷1.051 | ×1.420 | — | — | 40.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.46% | ÷0.995 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 9.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.44% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×0.978 | 23.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.28% | ÷1.112 | ×0.960 | ×0.981 | ×0.978 | 6.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.96% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.981 | ×0.978 | 2.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.51% | ÷1.240 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 4.52% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 94, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .377 → .280; ISO .217 → .142; BABIP .383 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AATennessee Smokies · 142 PAwOBA .293 → .231 (−63)K% 24.6% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.65% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.45% | ÷0.983 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.13% | ÷0.991 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 12.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.033 | ×0.910 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.082 | ×0.880 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 1.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.028 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.22% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 116, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .293 → .231; ISO .197 → .152; BABIP .239 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AATennessee Smokies · 262 PAwOBA .321 → .253 (−68)K% 33.2% → 42.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.21% | ÷0.951 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.25% | ÷1.090 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.00% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 20.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.33% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 10.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.33% | ÷0.937 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.61% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 90, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .321 → .253; ISO .181 → .145; BABIP .354 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Daytona Cubs · 108 PAwOBA .372 → .284 (−89)K% 31.5% → 42.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.48% | ÷1.064 | ×1.420 | — | — | 42.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.63% | ÷1.056 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 3.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.82% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 33.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.97% | ÷1.075 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.030 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.97% | ÷1.232 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 4.21% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 103, 2B 115, 3B 106, K 113, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .372 → .284; ISO .178 → .119; BABIP .460 → .422. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 APeoria Chiefs · 325 PAwOBA .340 → .259 (−81)K% 28.3% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.31% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.23% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 3.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.70% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×0.990 | 26.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.51% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×1.031 | ×0.990 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷0.928 | ×0.910 | ×1.031 | ×0.990 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.16% | ÷1.108 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.69% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 86, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .340 → .259; ISO .174 → .120; BABIP .379 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+Daytona Cubs · 87 PAwOBA .224 → .167 (−57)K% 33.3% → 46.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.010 | ×1.420 | — | — | 46.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.75% | ÷0.938 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 4.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.76% | ÷1.017 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 11.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.80% | ÷1.107 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 8.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 1.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 121, 3B 130, K 102, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .224 → .167; ISO .125 → .087; BABIP .235 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .