Matt Szczur

PosLF

B/TR/R

Born1989-07-20

Age (2027)38

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2018	29	AAASD	43	.316/.381/.447	0	0	76	—	.256/.310/.359
2018	29	MLBSD	84	.187/.265/.267	1	3	54	-0.5
2019	30	AAAARI	172	.322/.399/.577	8	0	95	—	.245/.304/.432
2021	32	AAASTL	112	.186/.236/.382	5	0	15	—	.132/.164/.255
2022	33	No MLB games played
2023	34	No MLB games played
2024	35	No MLB games played
2025	36	No MLB games played
2026	37	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2016-2018

Speed68

xwOBA24

Barrel%10

Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	30	26	5	1	1	0	3	5	1	0	0	192	300	308	608	115	238	17	10	281	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	182	173	45	7	2	5	5	20	1	7	0	260	285	410	695	150	268	11	3	302	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	298	274	86	15	1	5	21	28	2	17	5	314	367	431	798	117	335	9	7	356	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	158	143	30	7	4	2	14	29	1	4	2	210	285	357	641	147	250	18	9	288	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	352	295	87	19	4	2	47	50	4	38	12	295	399	407	806	112	344	14	13	360	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	107	91	24	2	2	1	14	10	1	9	3	264	368	363	731	99	287	9	13	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	574	512	144	27	4	3	50	75	6	22	12	281	352	367	719	86	323	13	9	324	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	66	62	14	2	0	2	4	11	0	0	0	226	273	355	628	129	245	17	6	281	77	-2	+0	-1	-6	+1	-0.7
2014	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	457	414	108	16	1	1	30	78	3	30	7	261	315	312	627	51	318	17	7	282	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	80	72	16	5	0	1	6	15	0	2	0	222	282	333	615	111	263	19	8	272	69	-3	+0	-1	-4	+2	-0.6
2015	26	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	305	267	78	12	2	8	22	51	6	20	5	292	359	442	801	150	330	17	7	347	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	200	185	48	9	1	5	13	39	1	2	4	259	312	400	712	141	305	20	6	316	95	-1	-1	+1	-2	+4	0.1
2017	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	237	195	44	12	2	3	34	44	4	0	2	226	352	354	706	128	275	19	14	321	106	+2	-1	+1	-3	+5	0.4
2018	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	84	75	14	3	0	1	8	24	0	3	0	187	265	267	532	80	260	29	10	245	54	-5	+1	-1	-1	+2	-0.5
2018	29	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	43	38	12	3	1	0	4	7	0	0	0	316	381	447	828	132	375	16	9	360	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA	Reno Aces	—	172	149	48	12	1	8	19	27	0	0	3	322	399	577	976	255	339	16	11	415	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	112	102	19	3	1	5	7	29	0	0	0	186	236	382	619	196	203	26	6	266	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	667	589	136	31	3	12	65	133	5	7	6	231	313	355	667	124	278	20	10	300	89	-9	-1	-2	-16	+14	-1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	30	27	5	1	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	185	267	296	563	111	222	23	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	182	174	40	6	2	4	4	27	1	7	0	230	251	356	608	126	239	15	2	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	298	280	75	13	1	4	15	37	2	17	5	268	310	364	674	96	293	12	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	158	147	27	6	3	2	10	36	1	4	2	184	241	306	547	122	230	23	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	352	308	81	17	3	1	34	68	4	38	12	263	344	347	691	84	322	19	10	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	574	529	144	27	4	3	33	95	6	22	12	272	322	355	678	83	319	17	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	66	62	14	2	0	2	4	11	0	0	0	226	273	355	628	129	245	17	6	282	77	-2	+0	-1	-6	+1	-0.7
2014	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	457	427	97	12	1	1	17	101	3	30	7	227	262	267	529	40	286	22	4	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	80	72	16	5	0	1	6	15	0	2	0	222	282	333	615	111	263	19	8	270	69	-3	+0	-1	-4	+2	-0.6
2015	26	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	305	273	70	10	2	7	16	63	6	20	5	256	312	385	696	128	291	21	5	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	200	187	48	9	1	5	11	39	1	2	4	257	302	396	697	139	305	20	6	308	95	-1	-1	+1	-2	+4	0.1
2017	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	237	195	45	13	2	3	34	44	4	0	2	231	356	364	720	133	275	19	14	326	106	+2	-1	+1	-3	+5	0.4
2018	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	84	75	14	3	0	1	8	24	0	3	0	187	265	267	532	80	260	29	10	248	54	-5	+1	-1	-1	+2	-0.5
2018	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	43	39	10	2	1	0	3	9	0	0	0	256	310	359	668	103	304	21	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	172	155	38	9	1	6	13	36	0	0	3	245	304	432	736	187	258	21	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	112	106	14	2	1	3	4	36	0	0	0	132	164	255	418	123	164	32	4	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	30	27	5	1	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	185	267	296	563	111	250	23	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	30	26	5	1	1	0	3	5	1	0	0	192	300	308	608	115	238	17	10	281	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	480	455	114	19	2	8	18	64	3	24	5	251	284	354	637	103	275	13	4	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	480	447	131	22	3	10	26	48	3	24	5	293	336	423	759	130	309	10	5	336	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	617	550	131	28	7	4	54	126	6	51	17	238	313	336	649	98	300	20	9	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	617	529	141	28	10	5	75	89	6	51	17	267	364	386	750	119	310	14	12	337	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	574	529	144	27	4	3	33	95	6	22	12	272	322	355	678	83	325	17	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	—	574	512	144	27	4	3	50	75	6	22	12	281	352	367	719	86	323	13	9	324	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	523	489	111	14	1	3	21	112	3	30	7	227	263	278	541	51	288	21	4	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	523	476	122	18	1	3	34	89	3	30	7	256	310	317	627	61	309	17	7	282	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	385	345	86	15	2	8	22	78	6	22	5	249	306	374	680	125	295	20	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	385	339	94	17	2	9	28	66	6	22	5	277	343	419	762	142	316	17	7	331	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	200	187	48	9	1	5	11	39	1	2	4	257	302	396	697	139	301	20	6	308	95	-1	-1	+1	-2	+4	0.1
2016	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	200	185	48	9	1	5	13	39	1	2	4	259	312	400	712	141	305	20	6	316	95	-1	-1	+1	-2	+4	0.1
2017	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	237	195	45	13	2	3	34	44	4	0	2	231	356	364	720	133	282	19	14	326	106	+2	-1	+1	-3	+5	0.4
2017	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	237	195	44	12	2	3	34	44	4	0	2	226	352	354	706	128	275	19	14	321	106	+2	-1	+1	-3	+5	0.4
2018	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	127	114	24	5	1	1	11	33	0	3	0	211	280	298	578	88	284	26	9	259	61	-6	+1	-1	-1	+3	-0.5
2018	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	127	113	26	6	1	1	12	31	0	3	0	230	304	327	631	97	305	24	9	284	61	-6	+1	-1	-1	+3	-0.5
2019	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	172	155	38	9	1	6	13	36	0	0	3	245	304	432	736	187	274	21	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	172	149	48	12	1	8	19	27	0	0	3	322	399	577	976	255	339	16	11	415	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	112	106	14	2	1	3	4	36	0	0	0	132	164	255	418	123	162	32	4	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	—	112	102	19	3	1	5	7	29	0	0	0	186	236	382	619	196	203	26	6	266	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	30	27	5	1	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	185	267	296	563	111	222	23	7	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	480	456	114	19	2	8	18	64	3	24	5	250	284	353	637	103	273	13	4	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	617	552	131	28	7	4	54	126	6	51	17	237	313	335	648	98	293	20	9	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	574	530	144	27	4	3	33	95	6	22	12	272	322	355	677	83	319	17	6	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	523	494	111	14	1	3	21	112	3	30	7	225	263	275	538	51	281	21	4	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	385	354	86	15	2	8	22	78	6	22	5	243	306	364	670	121	285	20	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	200	186	48	9	1	5	11	39	1	2	4	258	302	398	699	140	305	20	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	237	197	45	13	2	3	34	44	4	0	2	228	356	360	717	132	275	19	14	326	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	127	115	24	5	1	1	11	33	0	3	0	209	280	296	576	87	275	26	9	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	172	157	38	9	1	6	13	36	0	0	3	242	304	427	730	185	258	21	8	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	112	107	14	2	1	3	4	36	0	0	0	131	164	252	416	121	164	32	4	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	667	589	136	31	3	12	65	133	5	7	6	231	313	355	667	124	278	20	10	300	76	-9	-1	-2	-16	+14	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	133	30	3	12	63	130	5	7	6	232	313	357	670	125	279	20	10	300	76	-8	-1	-2	-15	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3457	3152	760	142	23	44	223	670	30	154	55	241	298	343	640	102	291	19	6	280	76	-9	-1	-2	-16	+14	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	143	27	4	8	42	126	6	29	10	241	298	341	639	99	292	19	6	280	76	-8	-1	-2	-15	+14	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 112 PAwOBA .261 → .190 (−71)K% 25.9% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.89%	÷0.955	×1.200	—	—	32.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×0.952	3.89%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.70%	÷1.016	×0.930	×0.983	×0.952	11.74%
Doubles /BIP	4.11%	÷1.029	×0.830	×0.983	×0.952	3.10%
Triples /BIP	1.37%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.983	×0.952	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	6.85%	÷0.949	×0.700	—	×0.952	4.81%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .261 → .190; ISO .196 → .137; BABIP .203 → .164. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAReno Aces · 172 PAwOBA .413 → .308 (−105)K% 15.7% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.70%	÷0.970	×1.290	—	—	20.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.05%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×0.972	7.73%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.13%	÷1.035	×0.900	×0.950	×0.972	17.77%
Doubles /BIP	9.84%	÷1.025	×0.810	×0.950	×0.972	7.18%
Triples /BIP	0.82%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×0.972	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	6.56%	÷1.077	×0.780	—	×0.972	4.62%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .413 → .308; ISO .255 → .182; BABIP .339 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 43 PAwOBA .360 → .280 (−79)K% 16.3% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.28%	÷0.983	×1.290	—	—	21.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.30%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×0.982	6.58%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.81%	÷1.032	×0.900	—	×0.982	22.11%
Doubles /BIP	9.68%	÷1.098	×0.810	—	×0.982	7.01%
Triples /BIP	3.23%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×0.982	2.23%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.045	×0.780	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .360 → .280; ISO .132 → .094; BABIP .375 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAIowa Cubs · 305 PAwOBA .342 → .300 (−42)K% 16.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.72%	÷1.051	×1.290	—	—	20.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.21%	÷0.996	×0.710	—	×1.018	5.23%
HBP% /PA	1.97%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	1.96%
Singles /BIP	25.93%	÷1.008	×0.900	×0.990	×1.018	23.34%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷0.984	×0.810	×0.990	×1.018	4.61%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷0.948	×0.810	×0.990	×1.018	0.80%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷0.916	×0.780	—	×1.018	3.21%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .342 → .300; ISO .150 → .131; BABIP .330 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAIowa Cubs · 457 PAwOBA .274 → .231 (−43)K% 17.1% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.07%	÷0.996	×1.290	—	—	22.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.35%	÷1.249	×0.710	—	×1.033	3.73%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.66%
Singles /BIP	26.79%	÷1.021	×0.900	×1.016	×1.033	24.78%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷1.111	×0.810	×1.016	×1.033	3.64%
Triples /BIP	0.30%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.016	×1.033	0.22%
Home runs /BIP	0.30%	÷0.929	×0.780	—	×1.033	0.26%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 104, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 99, BB 150 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .274 → .231; ISO .051 → .039; BABIP .318 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AATennessee Smokies · 574 PAwOBA .318 → .295 (−23)K% 13.1% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.07%	÷0.968	×1.220	—	—	16.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.71%	÷1.060	×0.680	—	×1.012	5.66%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.89%
Singles /BIP	25.17%	÷0.990	×0.920	×1.050	×1.012	24.86%
Doubles /BIP	6.18%	÷0.970	×0.910	×1.050	×1.012	6.16%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷0.935	×0.880	×1.050	×1.012	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	0.69%	÷0.920	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.60%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 87, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .318 → .295; ISO .086 → .085; BABIP .323 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Daytona Cubs · 352 PAwOBA .355 → .311 (−44)K% 14.2% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.20%	÷1.051	×1.420	—	—	19.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.07%	÷0.995	×0.750	—	×0.998	9.83%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	1.05%
Singles /BIP	25.31%	÷0.970	×0.920	×1.023	×0.998	24.51%
Doubles /BIP	7.76%	÷1.112	×0.960	×1.023	×0.998	6.84%
Triples /BIP	1.63%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.023	×0.998	1.17%
Home runs /BIP	0.82%	÷1.240	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.58%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 94, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .355 → .311; ISO .112 → .091; BABIP .344 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AATennessee Smokies · 158 PAwOBA .281 → .235 (−45)K% 18.4% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.35%	÷0.976	×1.220	—	—	22.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.86%	÷0.983	×0.680	—	×1.027	6.29%
HBP% /PA	0.63%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.55%
Singles /BIP	14.91%	÷0.991	×0.920	×0.997	×1.027	14.17%
Doubles /BIP	6.14%	÷1.033	×0.910	×0.997	×1.027	5.54%
Triples /BIP	3.51%	÷1.082	×0.880	×0.997	×1.027	2.92%
Home runs /BIP	1.75%	÷1.028	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.40%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 116, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .281 → .235; ISO .147 → .121; BABIP .250 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).