Bryan Petersen
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 723 | .285/.367/.418 | 11 | 12 | 85 | — | .224/.296/.314 |
| 2014 | 28 | AAATEX | 501 | .252/.323/.418 | 13 | 6 | 49 | — | .191/.242/.302 |
| 2015 | 29 | AAAColorado Spri… | 127 | .218/.262/.294 | 1 | 0 | 7 | — | .165/.198/.223 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 22 | AA | Carolina Mudcats | — | 44 | 37 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 351 | 429 | 486 | 915 | 135 | 375 | 14 | 11 | 391 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 175 | 155 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 265 | 341 | 355 | 696 | 90 | 306 | 17 | 9 | 315 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 345 | 296 | 89 | 10 | 2 | 19 | 38 | 74 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 301 | 388 | 541 | 928 | 240 | 335 | 21 | 11 | 399 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | — | 494 | 431 | 128 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 66 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 297 | 375 | 413 | 788 | 116 | 330 | 13 | 10 | 349 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | MLB | Florida Marlins | — | 25 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 120 | 83 | 203 | 111 | 24 | 4 | 100 | -45 | -4 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +1 | -1.0 | |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 369 | 322 | 82 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 63 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 255 | 334 | 354 | 688 | 99 | 300 | 17 | 9 | 308 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | MLB | Florida Marlins | — | 241 | 204 | 54 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 49 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 265 | 362 | 387 | 749 | 123 | 333 | 20 | 11 | 332 | 114 | +4 | +1 | +5 | +2 | +5 | 1.7 |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 289 | 248 | 87 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 36 | 41 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 351 | 431 | 569 | 999 | 218 | 386 | 14 | 12 | 434 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 273 | 241 | 47 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 58 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 195 | 273 | 257 | 531 | 62 | 255 | 21 | 9 | 243 | 55 | -15 | +1 | -3 | -6 | +6 | -1.7 |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 271 | 243 | 78 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 43 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 321 | 384 | 407 | 792 | 86 | 375 | 16 | 7 | 355 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 579 | 506 | 139 | 33 | 5 | 8 | 65 | 117 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 275 | 364 | 407 | 771 | 132 | 342 | 20 | 11 | 347 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | INTL | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 144 | 130 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 323 | 380 | 462 | 842 | 138 | 375 | 17 | 7 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 501 | 452 | 114 | 30 | 3 | 13 | 45 | 152 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 252 | 323 | 418 | 741 | 166 | 349 | 30 | 9 | 329 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 127 | 119 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 218 | 262 | 294 | 556 | 76 | 312 | 31 | 6 | 251 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 539 | 469 | 103 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 52 | 113 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 220 | 306 | 305 | 610 | 85 | 282 | 21 | 10 | 276 | 73 | -17 | +2 | +0 | -8 | +12 | -1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 22 | AA MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 44 | 39 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 333 | 381 | 462 | 842 | 128 | 359 | 16 | 7 | 380 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 175 | 159 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 220 | 283 | 302 | 585 | 82 | 276 | 23 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 345 | 309 | 75 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 25 | 99 | 4 | 15 | 6 | 243 | 308 | 427 | 735 | 184 | 288 | 29 | 7 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 494 | 448 | 118 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 81 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 263 | 320 | 362 | 681 | 98 | 294 | 16 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | MLB MLE | Florida Marlins | — | 25 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 120 | 83 | 203 | 111 | 24 | 4 | 101 | -45 | -4 | +0 | -2 | -4 | +1 | -1.0 | |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 369 | 333 | 75 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 77 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 225 | 287 | 306 | 594 | 81 | 273 | 21 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | MLB MLE | Florida Marlins | — | 241 | 206 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 49 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 272 | 362 | 398 | 760 | 126 | 333 | 20 | 10 | 337 | 114 | +4 | +1 | +5 | +2 | +5 | 1.7 |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 289 | 263 | 81 | 18 | 0 | 10 | 24 | 53 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 308 | 368 | 490 | 859 | 183 | 352 | 18 | 8 | 374 | 139 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 273 | 241 | 49 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 58 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 203 | 281 | 270 | 551 | 66 | 255 | 21 | 9 | 250 | 55 | -15 | +1 | -3 | -6 | +6 | -1.7 |
| 2012 | 26 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 271 | 248 | 68 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 55 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 274 | 328 | 335 | 663 | 60 | 340 | 20 | 6 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 579 | 523 | 117 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 149 | 6 | 12 | 4 | 224 | 296 | 314 | 610 | 90 | 304 | 26 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 501 | 467 | 89 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 193 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 191 | 242 | 302 | 544 | 111 | 299 | 39 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 127 | 121 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 165 | 198 | 223 | 422 | 58 | 262 | 40 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 564 | 507 | 124 | 14 | 2 | 19 | 39 | 147 | 7 | 23 | 9 | 245 | 307 | 393 | 700 | 148 | 300 | 26 | 7 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 564 | 488 | 143 | 17 | 2 | 23 | 58 | 109 | 7 | 23 | 9 | 293 | 376 | 477 | 854 | 184 | 329 | 19 | 10 | 372 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 494 | 448 | 118 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 81 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 263 | 320 | 362 | 681 | 98 | 303 | 16 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA RAW | Jacksonville Suns | — | 494 | 431 | 128 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 66 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 297 | 375 | 413 | 788 | 116 | 330 | 13 | 10 | 349 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 357 | 77 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 83 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 216 | 276 | 291 | 568 | 76 | 267 | 21 | 6 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 394 | 346 | 84 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 69 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 243 | 320 | 335 | 656 | 92 | 287 | 18 | 9 | 295 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 530 | 469 | 137 | 33 | 3 | 12 | 48 | 102 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 292 | 365 | 452 | 817 | 160 | 348 | 19 | 9 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 530 | 452 | 141 | 34 | 3 | 13 | 62 | 90 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 312 | 400 | 487 | 886 | 175 | 363 | 17 | 12 | 388 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 544 | 489 | 118 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 113 | 6 | 16 | 9 | 241 | 307 | 309 | 615 | 67 | 307 | 21 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -17 | -0 | -3 | -6 | +12 | -1.5 |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 544 | 484 | 125 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 45 | 101 | 6 | 16 | 9 | 258 | 329 | 333 | 662 | 74 | 318 | 19 | 8 | 299 | 73 | -17 | -0 | -3 | -6 | +12 | -1.5 |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 723 | 651 | 147 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 60 | 187 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 226 | 299 | 316 | 615 | 91 | 307 | 26 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 723 | 636 | 181 | 42 | 5 | 11 | 75 | 142 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 285 | 367 | 418 | 785 | 134 | 349 | 20 | 10 | 352 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 501 | 467 | 89 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 193 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 191 | 242 | 302 | 544 | 111 | 300 | 39 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 501 | 452 | 114 | 30 | 3 | 13 | 45 | 152 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 252 | 323 | 418 | 741 | 166 | 349 | 30 | 9 | 329 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 127 | 121 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 165 | 198 | 223 | 422 | 58 | 271 | 40 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA RAW | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 127 | 119 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 218 | 262 | 294 | 556 | 76 | 312 | 31 | 6 | 251 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 564 | 513 | 124 | 14 | 2 | 19 | 39 | 147 | 7 | 23 | 9 | 242 | 307 | 388 | 695 | 146 | 290 | 26 | 7 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 23 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 494 | 454 | 118 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 33 | 81 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 260 | 320 | 357 | 676 | 97 | 294 | 16 | 7 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 361 | 77 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 83 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 213 | 276 | 288 | 565 | 75 | 263 | 21 | 6 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 530 | 471 | 137 | 33 | 3 | 12 | 48 | 102 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 291 | 365 | 450 | 815 | 159 | 344 | 19 | 9 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 544 | 493 | 118 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 113 | 6 | 16 | 9 | 239 | 307 | 306 | 613 | 67 | 298 | 21 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 723 | 649 | 147 | 34 | 5 | 5 | 60 | 187 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 227 | 299 | 317 | 616 | 91 | 304 | 26 | 8 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 501 | 464 | 89 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 193 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 192 | 242 | 304 | 546 | 112 | 299 | 39 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 29 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 127 | 121 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 165 | 198 | 223 | 422 | 58 | 262 | 40 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 539 | 469 | 103 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 52 | 113 | 6 | 15 | 3 | 220 | 306 | 305 | 610 | 85 | 282 | 21 | 10 | 276 | 79 | -17 | +2 | +0 | -8 | +12 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 566 | 124 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 63 | 136 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 219 | 306 | 302 | 608 | 83 | 282 | 21 | 10 | 276 | 79 | -21 | +2 | +0 | -10 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3877 | 3509 | 830 | 148 | 25 | 58 | 280 | 957 | 38 | 88 | 49 | 237 | 300 | 343 | 643 | 106 | 305 | 25 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -17 | +2 | +0 | -8 | +12 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 139 | 25 | 4 | 10 | 47 | 160 | 6 | 15 | 8 | 236 | 299 | 344 | 643 | 107 | 304 | 25 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -21 | +2 | +0 | -10 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 127 PAwOBA .246 → .179 (−67)K% 30.7% → 40.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.71% | ÷0.979 | ×1.290 | — | — | 40.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.51% | ÷1.015 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 3.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.75% | ÷1.044 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 21.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷1.214 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.25% | ÷0.886 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 1.08% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 109, 2B 143, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .246 → .179; ISO .076 → .050; BABIP .312 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAARound Rock Express · 501 PAwOBA .321 → .241 (−80)K% 30.3% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.34% | ÷1.015 | ×1.290 | — | — | 38.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.78% | ÷1.033 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 5.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.67% | ÷0.984 | ×0.900 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 20.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.055 | ×0.810 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 7.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.810 | ×1.004 | ×0.992 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.33% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 97, 2B 111, 3B 91, K 103, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .321 → .241; ISO .166 → .117; BABIP .349 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 579 PAwOBA .340 → .275 (−65)K% 20.2% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.21% | ÷1.009 | ×1.290 | — | — | 25.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.23% | ÷0.963 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 8.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.91% | ÷0.987 | ×0.900 | ×1.001 | ×1.003 | 21.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.48% | ÷0.959 | ×0.810 | ×1.001 | ×1.003 | 7.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.29% | ÷0.936 | ×0.810 | ×1.001 | ×1.003 | 1.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷1.400 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 1.15% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 87, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .340 → .275; ISO .132 → .096; BABIP .342 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 271 PAwOBA .350 → .303 (−47)K% 15.9% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.87% | ÷1.013 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.38% | ÷0.997 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 5.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.50% | ÷0.976 | ×0.900 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 29.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.868 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 3.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×1.018 | 0.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.50% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 1.26% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 74, 3B 130, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .350 → .303; ISO .086 → .072; BABIP .375 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 289 PAwOBA .420 → .374 (−46)K% 14.2% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.19% | ÷1.007 | ×1.290 | — | — | 18.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.07% | ÷0.973 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 8.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.57% | ÷0.983 | ×0.900 | ×0.997 | ×1.033 | 25.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.14% | ÷0.971 | ×0.810 | ×0.997 | ×1.033 | 8.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.997 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.31% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 4.56% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .420 → .374; ISO .218 → .191; BABIP .386 → .352. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 369 PAwOBA .298 → .270 (−28)K% 17.1% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.07% | ÷1.056 | ×1.290 | — | — | 20.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.86% | ÷0.887 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.94% | ÷1.007 | ×0.900 | ×0.985 | ×1.048 | 22.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.02% | ÷0.963 | ×0.810 | ×0.985 | ×1.048 | 4.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.985 | ×1.048 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.93% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 111, BB 77 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .298 → .270; ISO .099 → .088; BABIP .300 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAJacksonville Suns · 494 PAwOBA .345 → .300 (−44)K% 13.4% → 16.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.36% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 24.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 3.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 1.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.58% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .345 → .300; ISO .116 → .102; BABIP .330 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 345 PAwOBA .395 → .316 (−79)K% 21.4% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.45% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 28.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.660 | — | — | 7.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | — | 23.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.964 | — | 3.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.964 | — | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | — | 7.02% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .395 → .316; ISO .240 → .193; BABIP .335 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .