Kevin Keyes
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 534 | .244/.319/.439 | 24 | 2 | 65 | — | .203/.257/.345 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 526 | .248/.317/.375 | 13 | 2 | 57 | — | .214/.265/.309 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 375 | .204/.306/.367 | 12 | 1 | 35 | — | .154/.228/.248 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 342 | 304 | 80 | 22 | 1 | 17 | 32 | 80 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 263 | 339 | 510 | 849 | 247 | 300 | 23 | 9 | 368 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 435 | 390 | 87 | 27 | 1 | 21 | 33 | 108 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 223 | 294 | 459 | 753 | 236 | 247 | 25 | 8 | 326 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 482 | 437 | 102 | 24 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 132 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 233 | 296 | 378 | 674 | 144 | 300 | 27 | 7 | 299 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 453 | 402 | 95 | 15 | 1 | 20 | 43 | 104 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 236 | 315 | 428 | 743 | 192 | 266 | 23 | 9 | 327 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 81 | 74 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 284 | 346 | 500 | 846 | 216 | 321 | 21 | 7 | 372 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 314 | 289 | 74 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 81 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 256 | 311 | 384 | 695 | 128 | 327 | 26 | 6 | 310 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 212 | 183 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 235 | 327 | 361 | 688 | 126 | 281 | 22 | 11 | 308 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 94 | 82 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 146 | 247 | 195 | 442 | 49 | 235 | 34 | 11 | 214 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 281 | 242 | 54 | 13 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 76 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 223 | 326 | 426 | 752 | 202 | 269 | 27 | 12 | 334 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 342 | 316 | 65 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 20 | 107 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 206 | 260 | 392 | 652 | 187 | 252 | 31 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 435 | 403 | 66 | 20 | 1 | 15 | 20 | 155 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 164 | 214 | 330 | 544 | 166 | 204 | 36 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 482 | 450 | 76 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 201 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 169 | 214 | 273 | 488 | 104 | 261 | 42 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 453 | 416 | 83 | 11 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 133 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 200 | 257 | 339 | 596 | 139 | 246 | 29 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 81 | 77 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 221 | 259 | 377 | 636 | 156 | 276 | 30 | 4 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 314 | 295 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 93 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 260 | 312 | 571 | 95 | 287 | 30 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 212 | 191 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 209 | 274 | 304 | 578 | 94 | 260 | 26 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 94 | 86 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 172 | 140 | 312 | 35 | 204 | 43 | 6 | 157 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 281 | 253 | 43 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 95 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 170 | 247 | 285 | 532 | 115 | 237 | 34 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 342 | 316 | 65 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 20 | 107 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 206 | 260 | 392 | 652 | 187 | 258 | 31 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 342 | 304 | 80 | 22 | 1 | 17 | 32 | 80 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 263 | 339 | 510 | 849 | 247 | 300 | 23 | 9 | 368 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 435 | 403 | 66 | 20 | 1 | 15 | 20 | 155 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 164 | 214 | 330 | 544 | 166 | 213 | 36 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 435 | 390 | 87 | 27 | 1 | 21 | 33 | 108 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 223 | 294 | 459 | 753 | 236 | 247 | 25 | 8 | 326 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 482 | 450 | 76 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 201 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 169 | 214 | 273 | 488 | 104 | 270 | 42 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 482 | 437 | 102 | 24 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 132 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 233 | 296 | 378 | 674 | 144 | 300 | 27 | 7 | 299 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 534 | 493 | 102 | 13 | 2 | 19 | 32 | 157 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 207 | 261 | 357 | 618 | 150 | 259 | 29 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 534 | 476 | 116 | 17 | 2 | 24 | 49 | 121 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 244 | 319 | 439 | 759 | 195 | 275 | 23 | 9 | 334 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 486 | 103 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 150 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 212 | 263 | 307 | 570 | 95 | 280 | 29 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 526 | 472 | 117 | 21 | 0 | 13 | 43 | 128 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 248 | 317 | 375 | 692 | 127 | 309 | 24 | 8 | 310 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 375 | 339 | 53 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 135 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 156 | 231 | 254 | 485 | 97 | 234 | 36 | 7 | 219 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 375 | 324 | 66 | 17 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 108 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 204 | 306 | 367 | 674 | 164 | 261 | 29 | 11 | 304 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 342 | 316 | 65 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 20 | 107 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 206 | 260 | 392 | 652 | 187 | 252 | 31 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 435 | 406 | 66 | 20 | 1 | 15 | 20 | 155 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 163 | 214 | 328 | 542 | 165 | 204 | 36 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 482 | 453 | 76 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 201 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 168 | 214 | 272 | 486 | 104 | 261 | 42 | 4 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 534 | 493 | 102 | 13 | 2 | 19 | 32 | 157 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 207 | 261 | 357 | 618 | 150 | 251 | 29 | 6 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 487 | 103 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 150 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 211 | 263 | 306 | 569 | 94 | 276 | 29 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 375 | 339 | 53 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 135 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 156 | 231 | 254 | 485 | 97 | 229 | 36 | 7 | 219 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2694 | 2487 | 465 | 96 | 4 | 74 | 150 | 905 | 28 | 24 | 14 | 187 | 241 | 318 | 559 | 131 | 255 | 34 | 6 | 243 | 50 | -159 | -1 | +0 | -48 | +58 | -15.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 112 | 23 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 218 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 187 | 241 | 318 | 559 | 132 | 253 | 34 | 6 | 243 | 50 | -38 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -3.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAHarrisburg Senators · 281 PAwOBA .326 → .240 (−86)K% 27.0% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.05% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.39% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.47% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×0.978 | 16.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.83% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×0.994 | ×0.978 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.137 | ×0.950 | ×0.994 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.23% | ÷1.445 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 3.82% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 189, 1B 106, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .326 → .240; ISO .202 → .123; BABIP .269 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 94 PAwOBA .211 → .157 (−54)K% 34.0% → 43.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.04% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 43.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.64% | ÷1.110 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.06% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.930 | ×0.982 | ×1.003 | 13.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.003 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.982 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .211 → .157; ISO .049 → .039; BABIP .235 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 314 PAwOBA .303 → .248 (−54)K% 25.8% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.80% | ÷1.043 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.05% | ÷0.938 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.48% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×0.980 | ×1.018 | 23.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×1.018 | 4.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.947 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.183 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 2.78% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .303 → .248; ISO .128 → .092; BABIP .327 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAHarrisburg Senators · 212 PAwOBA .306 → .259 (−48)K% 22.2% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.17% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.85% | ÷1.052 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.06% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 21.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.070 | ×0.860 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 4.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.950 | ×0.977 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.68% | ÷0.986 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.87% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 92, 2B 114, 3B 83, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .306 → .259; ISO .126 → .100; BABIP .281 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAHarrisburg Senators · 453 PAwOBA .321 → .261 (−60)K% 23.0% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.96% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.49% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.66% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.80% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 19.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.03% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 3.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.71% | ÷0.991 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 5.27% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .321 → .261; ISO .192 → .146; BABIP .266 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Potomac Nationals · 81 PAwOBA .357 → .280 (−77)K% 21.0% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.99% | ÷0.996 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.17% | ÷0.943 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 4.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.56% | ÷1.012 | ×0.940 | ×0.986 | ×0.978 | 22.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.037 | ×0.830 | ×0.986 | ×0.978 | 2.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.986 | ×0.978 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.02% | ÷0.988 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 6.25% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .357 → .280; ISO .216 → .170; BABIP .321 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Potomac Nationals · 482 PAwOBA .294 → .214 (−80)K% 27.4% → 41.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.39% | ÷0.932 | ×1.420 | — | — | 41.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.05% | ÷0.991 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 4.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.31% | ÷1.031 | ×0.940 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 19.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.87% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.26% | ÷0.936 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 4.05% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 86, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .294 → .214; ISO .144 → .109; BABIP .300 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Potomac Nationals · 435 PAwOBA .321 → .231 (−90)K% 24.8% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.83% | ÷0.991 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.59% | ÷1.029 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 4.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.48% | ÷1.086 | ×0.940 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 11.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.57% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 7.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 0.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.45% | ÷1.159 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 5.77% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 117, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .321 → .231; ISO .236 → .167; BABIP .247 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).