Ryan Dent
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 434 | .245/.336/.372 | 4 | 15 | 54 | — | .203/.266/.310 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 319 | .252/.316/.367 | 5 | 2 | 56 | — | .221/.266/.315 |
| 2016 | 27 | AATennessee Smo… | 68 | .138/.254/.155 | 0 | 0 | -4 | — | .117/.209/.133 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 18 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 42 | 35 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 371 | 463 | 600 | 1.063 | 229 | 414 | 12 | 12 | 451 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 44 | 41 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 268 | 286 | 366 | 652 | 98 | 344 | 23 | 0 | 277 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 411 | 345 | 87 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 49 | 112 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 252 | 353 | 391 | 745 | 139 | 351 | 27 | 12 | 328 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 427 | 382 | 86 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 86 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 225 | 292 | 332 | 624 | 107 | 272 | 20 | 7 | 278 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 189 | 170 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 45 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 206 | 278 | 306 | 584 | 100 | 264 | 24 | 9 | 265 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 58 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 327 | 283 | 610 | 87 | 250 | 21 | 14 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 312 | 286 | 598 | 71 | 333 | 29 | 12 | 264 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 306 | 266 | 63 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 60 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 237 | 316 | 293 | 610 | 56 | 291 | 20 | 9 | 276 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 39 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 167 | 211 | 167 | 377 | 273 | 36 | 5 | 175 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 201 | 183 | 47 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 39 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 257 | 320 | 344 | 664 | 87 | 312 | 19 | 8 | 302 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 135 | 122 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 238 | 301 | 344 | 645 | 107 | 318 | 24 | 4 | 289 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 299 | 254 | 63 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 56 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 248 | 353 | 386 | 738 | 138 | 305 | 19 | 12 | 331 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 66 | 59 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 237 | 286 | 390 | 676 | 153 | 302 | 24 | 6 | 286 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 253 | 219 | 56 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 60 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 256 | 324 | 361 | 684 | 105 | 331 | 24 | 7 | 297 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 68 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 138 | 254 | 155 | 409 | 17 | 186 | 24 | 10 | 205 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 42 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 324 | 390 | 541 | 931 | 216 | 334 | 17 | 7 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 44 | 41 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 238 | 293 | 531 | 73 | 322 | 32 | 0 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 411 | 362 | 75 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 150 | 5 | 17 | 5 | 207 | 281 | 318 | 598 | 110 | 313 | 36 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 427 | 392 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 135 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 181 | 232 | 263 | 495 | 82 | 250 | 32 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 189 | 174 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 56 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 178 | 235 | 247 | 482 | 69 | 248 | 30 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 17 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 267 | 517 | 67 | 316 | 35 | 6 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 306 | 274 | 60 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 76 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 279 | 259 | 539 | 40 | 279 | 25 | 7 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 39 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 162 | 184 | 162 | 346 | 276 | 41 | 3 | 155 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 201 | 187 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 235 | 285 | 299 | 584 | 64 | 304 | 24 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 135 | 125 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 41 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 200 | 248 | 288 | 536 | 88 | 288 | 30 | 2 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 299 | 269 | 55 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 80 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 204 | 275 | 320 | 594 | 115 | 263 | 27 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 66 | 62 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 194 | 206 | 323 | 529 | 129 | 255 | 30 | 2 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 253 | 224 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 76 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 228 | 282 | 312 | 595 | 85 | 305 | 30 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 68 | 60 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 117 | 209 | 133 | 342 | 17 | 162 | 29 | 7 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 42 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 324 | 390 | 541 | 931 | 216 | 379 | 17 | 7 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 42 | 35 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 371 | 463 | 600 | 1.063 | 229 | 414 | 12 | 12 | 451 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 403 | 84 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 164 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 208 | 277 | 315 | 592 | 107 | 331 | 36 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 455 | 386 | 98 | 28 | 3 | 6 | 49 | 122 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 254 | 347 | 389 | 736 | 135 | 350 | 27 | 11 | 323 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 427 | 392 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 135 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 181 | 232 | 263 | 495 | 82 | 258 | 32 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 427 | 382 | 86 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 86 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 225 | 292 | 332 | 624 | 107 | 272 | 20 | 7 | 278 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 224 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 73 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 183 | 244 | 263 | 507 | 80 | 255 | 30 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 247 | 216 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 57 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 204 | 289 | 301 | 590 | 97 | 261 | 23 | 10 | 267 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 323 | 289 | 63 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 83 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 278 | 260 | 537 | 42 | 295 | 26 | 7 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 323 | 280 | 66 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 65 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 236 | 316 | 293 | 609 | 57 | 293 | 20 | 10 | 276 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 224 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 223 | 269 | 277 | 546 | 54 | 306 | 27 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 240 | 219 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 53 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 242 | 303 | 315 | 618 | 73 | 307 | 22 | 8 | 281 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 394 | 79 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 121 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 201 | 264 | 299 | 564 | 99 | 279 | 28 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 434 | 376 | 92 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 89 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 245 | 336 | 372 | 709 | 128 | 309 | 21 | 10 | 318 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 319 | 286 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 95 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 227 | 273 | 325 | 598 | 98 | 321 | 30 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 319 | 278 | 70 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 76 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 252 | 316 | 367 | 683 | 115 | 325 | 24 | 7 | 294 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 68 | 60 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 117 | 209 | 133 | 342 | 17 | 171 | 29 | 7 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | — | 68 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 138 | 254 | 155 | 409 | 17 | 186 | 24 | 10 | 205 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 42 | 38 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 316 | 390 | 526 | 917 | 211 | 334 | 17 | 7 | 346 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 414 | 84 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 164 | 6 | 18 | 5 | 203 | 277 | 307 | 583 | 104 | 314 | 36 | 7 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 427 | 398 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 135 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 178 | 232 | 259 | 491 | 80 | 250 | 32 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 247 | 227 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 73 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 181 | 244 | 260 | 504 | 79 | 248 | 30 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 323 | 296 | 63 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 83 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 213 | 278 | 253 | 531 | 41 | 281 | 26 | 7 | 240 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 224 | 50 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 223 | 269 | 277 | 546 | 54 | 299 | 27 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 397 | 79 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 121 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 199 | 264 | 297 | 561 | 98 | 271 | 28 | 6 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 319 | 298 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 95 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 218 | 273 | 312 | 585 | 94 | 295 | 30 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 68 | 61 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 115 | 209 | 131 | 340 | 16 | 162 | 29 | 7 | 163 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2555 | 2309 | 472 | 97 | 12 | 24 | 151 | 763 | 32 | 71 | 41 | 204 | 263 | 288 | 551 | 84 | 290 | 30 | 6 | 240 | 49 | -156 | -2 | +0 | +27 | +55 | -7.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 120 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 194 | 8 | 18 | 10 | 204 | 262 | 288 | 550 | 83 | 290 | 30 | 6 | 240 | 49 | -40 | -0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AATennessee Smokies · 68 PAwOBA .204 → .163 (−41)K% 23.5% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.29% | ÷0.982 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 6.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 2.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 14.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 2.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .204 → .163; ISO .017 → .016; BABIP .186 → .162. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AATennessee Smokies · 253 PAwOBA .291 → .255 (−36)K% 23.7% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.72% | ÷0.967 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.11% | ÷0.959 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 4.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.79% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×1.042 | ×0.988 | 23.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.92% | ÷0.998 | ×0.910 | ×1.042 | ×0.988 | 6.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.058 | ×0.880 | ×1.042 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.90% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 100, 3B 112, K 93, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .291 → .255; ISO .105 → .090; BABIP .331 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAIowa Cubs · 66 PAwOBA .269 → .234 (−35)K% 24.2% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.24% | ÷1.051 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.03% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 2.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.60% | ÷1.008 | ×0.900 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 16.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.30% | ÷0.984 | ×0.810 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 7.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.948 | ×0.810 | ×0.958 | ×1.018 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.916 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 2.02% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .269 → .234; ISO .153 → .132; BABIP .302 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Salem Red Sox · 299 PAwOBA .324 → .253 (−71)K% 18.7% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.73% | ÷0.998 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.04% | ÷1.031 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.69% | ÷1.015 | ×0.940 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 16.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.10% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 8.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 1.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.025 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 1.30% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .324 → .253; ISO .138 → .112; BABIP .305 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 135 PAwOBA .278 → .236 (−43)K% 24.4% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.44% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.70% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 2.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 3.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.35% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 19.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.99% | ÷1.025 | ×0.860 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 7.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.959 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.91% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .278 → .236; ISO .107 → .088; BABIP .318 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 201 PAwOBA .294 → .260 (−33)K% 19.4% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.40% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.96% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.69% | ÷0.980 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 25.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.86% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 4.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.997 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.026 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .294 → .260; ISO .087 → .070; BABIP .312 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 39 PAwOBA .171 → .155 (−15)K% 35.9% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.90% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.13% | ÷1.069 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷0.964 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 27.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.083 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.068 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 91, K 104, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .171 → .155; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 306 PAwOBA .272 → .240 (−32)K% 19.6% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.61% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.48% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.21% | ÷1.007 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×1.027 | 25.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.91% | ÷1.095 | ×0.860 | ×0.990 | ×1.027 | 2.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.098 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.06% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .272 → .240; ISO .056 → .043; BABIP .291 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).