Juan Centeno

PosC
B/TL/R
Born1989-11-16
Age (2027)37
No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.
Overview
INTL
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202333AA/INTL2 orgs337.263/.322/.3212443—.202/.244/.233
202434INTLCangrejeros d…78.203/.320/.3282083—
202535INTLPuerto Rico59.255/.333/.3331087—
Contract
No contract data on file.
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2023 AA
Z-Con%71
Whiff%61
K%41
wOBA32
Speed27
BB%21

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
200717 ROKGCL Mets — 4541 6000 361 00 146222146369 171 137 184 -22 — — — — — —
200818 ROKGCL Mets — 7563 13100 882 00 206315222537 16236 1111 256 15 — — — — — —
201020 A+St. Lucie Mets — 4135 7000 370 10 200263200463 241 177 206 9 — — — — — —
201121 A+St. Lucie Mets — 178157 50511 12221 31 318371382753 64363 127 327 87 — — — — — —
201121 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 5347 11300 660 00 234321298619 64268 1111 288 81 — — — — — —
201222 AABinghamton Mets — 313281 801220 23431 11 285341342683 57331 147 304 82 — — — — — —
201222 INTLAtenienses de Manati — 10792 23211 9132 10 250330326656 76278 128 292 84 — — — — — —
201323 AAALas Vegas 51s — 237213 651020 12243 11 305351371722 66339 105 315 83 — — — — — —
201323 AABinghamton Mets — 2423 6110 050 00 261261391652 130333 210 272 68 — — — — — —
201323 INTLGigantes de Carolina — 8375 21301 6101 00 280341360701 80308 127 316 100 — — — — — —
201424 MLBNew York Mets — 3330 6000 350 00 200273200473 240 159 228 43 -2 +0 -1 +7 +1 0.5
201424 AAALas Vegas 51s — 202179 52501 15261 20 291349335684 45329 137 304 74 — — — — — —
201424 AABinghamton Mets — 8377 22500 6110 01 286337351688 65333 137 313 77 — — — — — —
201424 INTLSenadores de San Juan — 8871 9100 13100 00 127262141403 14141 1115 200 21 — — — — — —
201525 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 2321 1100 270 00 4813095226 4871 309 116 -32 -4 +0 -2 +5 +0 0.0
201525 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox — 187176 52630 5191 22 295319364682 68323 103 298 54 — — — — — —
201525 INTLCriollos de Caguas — 7358 11400 1182 00 190338259597 69212 1115 282 77 — — — — — —
201626 MLBMinnesota Twins — 192176 461213 12381 00 261312392704 131319 206 310 96 -1 +0 -10 +6 +4 -0.0
201626 AAARochester Red Wings — 5549 12101 441 10 245315327641 82250 77 290 63 — — — — — —
201626 INTLTiburones de Aguadilla — 9985 20400 10152 11 235330282612 47282 1510 283 78 — — — — — —
201727 MLBHouston Astros — 5752 12002 4120 00 231286346632 115263 217 281 69 -2 +0 -2 +6 +1 0.3
201727 AAAFresno Grizzlies — 257235 731211 16371 01 311357383740 72362 146 328 76 — — — — — —
201828 MLBTexas Rangers — 3837 6101 170 00 162184270454 108172 183 202 19 -4 +0 -1 +6 +1 0.2
201828 AAARound Rock Express — 232205 48902 16342 01 234296307603 73266 157 267 48 — — — — — —
201828 INTLIndios de Mayaguez — 6051 14401 541 00 275351412763 137277 78 326 107 — — — — — —
201929 MLBBoston Red Sox — 1815 2000 221 10 133278133411 154 1111 219 33 -1 +0 -1 +7 +0 0.6
201929 AAAPawtucket Red Sox — 301266 661504 24476 20 248324350674 102284 168 303 59 — — — — — —
201929 INTLAtenienses de Manati — 9385 26102 671 10 306359388747 82316 86 335 113 — — — — — —
202030 INTLPuerto Rico — 7571 25504 391 00 352387592978 239362 124 427 175 — — — — — —
202131 AAAToledo Mud Hens — 181166 46911 14250 00 277333361695 84321 148 313 54 — — — — — —
202131 AAErie SeaWolves — 2319 6201 430 00 3164355791.014 263333 1317 442 121 — — — — — —
202131 INTLPuerto Rico — 10796 16301 8141 10 167238229467 62183 137 216 32 — — — — — —
202232 AAAReno Aces — 3733 11201 341 01 333405485890 152357 118 398 95 — — — — — —
202232 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 337311 9422114 17586 11 302350514865 212333 175 376 73 — — — — — —
202232 INTLCriollos de Caguas — 147127 29300 14262 10 228315252567 24282 1810 263 64 — — — — — —
202333 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles — 273251 681101 20720 41 271325327651 56374 267 296 34 — — — — — —
202333 INTLCriollos de Caguas — 6457 13101 7120 00 228312298611 70273 1911 284 79 — — — — — —
202434 INTLCangrejeros de Santurce — 7864 13202 7174 00 203320328648 125234 229 291 83 — — — — — —
202535 INTLPuerto Rico — 5951 13101 6100 00 255333333667 78293 1710 297 87 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 361331 731416 24712 10 221277323601 103264 207 270 69 -13 +0 -16 +37 +8 1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
200717 ROK MLEGCL Mets — 4542 5000 291 00 119178119297 144 204 136 -22 — — — — — —
200818 ROK MLEGCL Mets — 7566 11100 5122 00 167247182428 15190 167 190 15 — — — — — —
201020 A+ MLESt. Lucie Mets — 4136 7000 2100 10 194237194431 225 245 182 9 — — — — — —
201121 A+ MLESt. Lucie Mets — 178160 49511 9331 31 306347369716 62351 195 297 87 — — — — — —
201222 AA MLEBinghamton Mets — 313287 821220 17531 11 286328341669 56331 175 289 82 — — — — — —
201323 AAA MLELas Vegas 51s — 237216 63920 9323 11 292329352681 60322 144 291 83 — — — — — —
201323 AA MLEBinghamton Mets — 2423 6110 060 00 261261391652 130338 250 269 68 — — — — — —
201424 MLB MLENew York Mets — 3330 6000 350 00 200273200473 240 159 232 43 -2 +0 -1 +7 +1 0.5
201424 AAA MLELas Vegas 51s — 202186 52401 8361 20 280313317630 38319 184 278 74 — — — — — —
201424 AA MLEBinghamton Mets — 8379 21400 4130 01 266301316618 51329 165 282 77 — — — — — —
201525 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 2321 1100 270 00 4813095226 4871 309 120 -32 -4 +0 -2 +5 +0 0.0
201525 AAA MLEColorado Springs Sky Sox — 187177 44420 4251 22 249269294563 45276 132 248 54 — — — — — —
201626 MLB MLEMinnesota Twins — 192176 461213 12381 00 261312392704 131319 206 310 96 -1 +0 -10 +6 +4 -0.0
201626 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 5550 12101 351 10 240296320616 80240 95 261 63 — — — — — —
201727 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 5753 12002 3120 00 226268340607 113263 215 270 69 -2 +0 -2 +6 +1 0.3
201727 AAA MLEFresno Grizzlies — 257240 661011 11481 01 275310338647 62328 194 280 76 — — — — — —
201828 MLB MLETexas Rangers — 3837 6101 170 00 162184270454 108172 183 196 19 -4 +0 -1 +6 +1 0.2
201828 AAA MLERound Rock Express — 232210 47802 11422 01 224269290560 67249 185 239 48 — — — — — —
201929 MLB MLEBoston Red Sox — 1815 2000 221 10 133278133411 154 1111 217 33 -1 +0 -1 +7 +0 0.6
201929 AAA MLEPawtucket Red Sox — 301274 591303 16566 20 215274296569 80252 195 255 59 — — — — — —
202131 AAA MLEToledo Mud Hens — 181171 40711 9300 00 234272304576 70275 175 248 54 — — — — — —
202131 AA MLEErie SeaWolves — 2320 6201 340 00 300391550941 250282 1713 347 121 — — — — — —
202232 AAA MLEReno Aces — 3734 10201 251 01 294351441793 147297 145 309 95 — — — — — —
202232 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 337318 7417110 10706 11 233269387656 154262 213 276 73 — — — — — —
202333 AA MLEAmarillo Sod Poodles — 273257 52800 14880 41 202244233477 31303 325 218 34 — — — — — —
200717 ROK MLEGCL Mets — 4542 5000 291 00 119178119297 152 204 136 -22 — — — — — —
200717 ROK RAWGCL Mets — 4541 6000 361 00 146222146369 171 137 184 -22 — — — — — —
200818 ROK MLEGCL Mets — 7566 11100 5122 00 167247182428 15204 167 190 15 — — — — — —
200818 ROK RAWGCL Mets — 7563 13100 882 00 206315222537 16236 1111 256 15 — — — — — —
201020 A+ MLESt. Lucie Mets — 4136 7000 2100 10 194237194431 259 245 182 9 — — — — — —
201020 A+ RAWSt. Lucie Mets — 4135 7000 370 10 200263200463 241 177 206 9 — — — — — —
201121 A+ MLE2 teams — 231211 63711 11431 31 299336355692 57369 195 297 87 — — — — — —
201121 A+ RAW2 teams — 231204 61811 18281 31 299359363721 64341 128 318 87 — — — — — —
201222 AA MLE2 teams — 420383 1101630 22713 21 287331345676 57347 175 289 82 — — — — — —
201222 AA RAW2 teams — 420373 1031431 32563 21 276338338676 62318 138 301 82 — — — — — —
201323 AAA MLE3 teams — 344317 911330 12514 11 287321347668 60337 153 289 82 — — — — — —
201323 AAA RAW3 teams — 344311 921431 18394 11 296342370712 74331 115 312 82 — — — — — —
201424 AAA MLE4 teams — 406374 1011101 20691 21 270309307616 37323 175 274 72 — — — — — —
201424 AAA RAW4 teams — 406357 891101 37521 21 249322289610 39284 139 277 72 — — — — — —
201525 AAA MLE3 teams — 283266 62730 7433 22 233261282543 49271 152 234 45 — — — — — —
201525 AAA RAW3 teams — 283255 641130 18343 22 251308318626 67282 126 279 45 — — — — — —
201626 MLB MLE3 teams — 346315 801815 21604 21 254309365674 111299 176 299 88 -5 +0 -10 +6 +7 -0.1
201626 MLB RAW3 teams — 346310 781714 26574 21 252318352669 100296 168 299 88 -5 +0 -10 +6 +7 -0.1
201727 AAA MLE2 teams — 314293 781013 14601 01 266302338640 72323 194 278 74 — — — — — —
201727 AAA RAW2 teams — 314287 851213 20491 01 296344376720 80346 166 320 74 — — — — — —
201828 AAA MLE3 teams — 330300 631003 15593 01 210255273528 63247 185 233 44 — — — — — —
201828 AAA RAW3 teams — 330293 681404 22453 01 232292321613 89257 147 270 44 — — — — — —
201929 AAA MLE3 teams — 412375 791704 23758 40 211271288559 77251 186 253 57 — — — — — —
201929 AAA RAW3 teams — 412366 941606 32568 40 257330350680 93287 148 307 57 — — — — — —
202030 INTL MLEPuerto Rico — 7571 25504 391 00 352387592978 239362 124 — — — — — — — —
202030 INTL RAWPuerto Rico — 7571 25504 391 00 352387592978 239362 124 427 175 — — — — — —
202131 AAA MLE3 teams — 311289 671312 18511 10 232279304584 73274 166 259 62 — — — — — —
202131 AAA RAW3 teams — 311281 681413 26421 10 242308331639 89274 148 289 62 — — — — — —
202232 AA MLE3 teams — 521488 11425114 171049 22 234272375647 141268 203 279 75 — — — — — —
202232 AA RAW3 teams — 521471 13427115 34889 22 285344442786 157321 177 346 75 — — — — — —
202333 AA MLE2 teams — 337318 651001 171080 41 204245245490 41305 325 218 34 — — — — — —
202333 AA RAW2 teams — 337308 811202 27840 41 263322321644 58354 258 294 34 — — — — — —
202434 INTL MLECangrejeros de Santurce — 7864 13202 7174 00 203320328648 125234 229 — — — — — — — —
202434 INTL RAWCangrejeros de Santurce — 7864 13202 7174 00 203320328648 125234 229 291 83 — — — — — —
202535 INTL MLEPuerto Rico — 5951 13101 6100 00 255333333667 78293 1710 — — — — — — — —
202535 INTL RAWPuerto Rico — 5951 13101 6100 00 255333333667 78293 1710 297 87 — — — — — —
200717 ROK MLEGCL Mets — 4542 5000 291 00 119178119297 144 204 136 -22 — — — — — —
200818 ROK MLEGCL Mets — 7568 11100 5122 00 162247176423 15190 167 190 15 — — — — — —
201020 A+ MLESt. Lucie Mets — 4139 7000 2100 10 179237179416 225 245 182 9 — — — — — —
201121 A+ MLE2 teams — 231217 63711 11431 31 290336346682 55351 195 297 87 — — — — — —
201222 AA MLE2 teams — 420392 1101630 22713 21 281331337668 56331 175 289 82 — — — — — —
201323 AAA MLE3 teams — 344325 911330 12514 11 280321338660 58323 153 289 82 — — — — — —
201424 AAA MLE4 teams — 406382 1011101 20691 21 264309301610 37313 175 274 72 — — — — — —
201525 AAA MLE3 teams — 283271 62730 7433 22 229261277538 48254 152 234 45 — — — — — —
201626 MLB MLE3 teams — 346318 801815 21604 21 252309362670 110301 176 299 88 — — — — — —
201727 AAA MLE2 teams — 314296 781013 14601 01 264302334636 71316 194 278 74 — — — — — —
201828 AAA MLE3 teams — 330309 631003 15593 01 204255265520 61238 185 233 44 — — — — — —
201929 AAA MLE3 teams — 412378 791704 23758 40 209271286557 77246 186 253 57 — — — — — —
202131 AAA MLE3 teams — 311289 671312 18511 10 232279304584 73276 166 259 62 — — — — — —
202232 AA MLE3 teams — 521490 11425114 171049 22 233272373646 141265 203 279 75 — — — — — —
202333 AA MLE2 teams — 337317 651001 171080 41 205245246491 41303 325 218 34 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 361331 731416 24712 10 221277323601 103264 207 270 57 -13 +0 -16 +37 +8 1.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650596 13225211 431284 20 221278326604 104265 207 270 57 -24 +0 -29 +67 +14 2.9
Career— MLE — 46284259 10471661441 22286146 2412 246290320611 74296 195 252 57 -13 +0 -16 +37 +8 1.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650598 1472326 311216 32 246289321610 75296 195 252 57 -24 +0 -29 +67 +14 2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 273 PAwOBA .288 → .218 (−70)K% 26.4% → 32.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.37%÷1.003×1.220——32.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.96%÷0.922×0.700—×0.9404.97%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP31.28%÷1.054×0.920×0.996×0.94025.58%
Doubles /BIP6.15%÷1.008×0.840×0.996×0.9404.79%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.124×0.940×0.996×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP0.56%÷1.637×0.800—×0.9400.26%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .288 → .218; ISO .056 → .038; BABIP .374 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 337 PAwOBA .367 → .276 (−91)K% 17.2% → 20.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.21%÷1.008×1.220——20.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.04%÷1.061×0.700—×0.9403.13%
HBP% /PA1.78%—×0.870—×0.9401.46%
Singles /BIP22.53%÷1.048×0.920×0.985×0.94018.31%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷1.022×0.840×0.985×0.9406.62%
Triples /BIP0.40%÷0.938×0.940×0.985×0.9400.37%
Home runs /BIP5.53%÷1.094×0.800—×0.9403.80%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 88, K 102, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .367 → .276; ISO .212 → .152; BABIP .333 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 37 PAwOBA .387 → .309 (−78)K% 10.8% → 12.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.81%÷1.004×1.200——12.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.11%÷1.020×0.690—×0.9425.17%
HBP% /PA2.70%—×0.940—×0.9422.39%
Singles /BIP27.59%÷1.025×0.930—×0.94223.58%
Doubles /BIP6.90%÷0.996×0.830—×0.9425.42%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.100×0.970—×0.9420.00%
Home runs /BIP3.45%÷0.965×0.700—×0.9422.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 105, 2B 99, 3B 120, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .387 → .309; ISO .152 → .111; BABIP .357 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 181 PAwOBA .305 → .248 (−58)K% 13.8% → 16.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.81%÷1.000×1.200——16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.73%÷1.038×0.690—×0.9524.89%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9520.00%
Singles /BIP24.82%÷0.991×0.930×0.985×0.95221.85%
Doubles /BIP6.38%÷1.013×0.830×0.985×0.9524.91%
Triples /BIP0.71%÷0.981×0.920×0.985×0.9520.62%
Home runs /BIP0.71%÷1.052×0.700—×0.9520.45%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 103, 3B 96, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .305 → .248; ISO .084 → .064; BABIP .321 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAErie SeaWolves · 23 PAwOBA .430 → .347 (−83)K% 13.0% → 15.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.04%÷1.026×1.220——15.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.39%÷0.945×0.690—×0.94011.93%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×0.9400.00%
Singles /BIP18.75%÷1.030×0.940—×0.94016.09%
Doubles /BIP12.50%÷0.935×0.870—×0.94010.93%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP6.25%÷1.055×0.780—×0.9404.34%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .430 → .347; ISO .263 → .210; BABIP .333 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 301 PAwOBA .297 → .255 (−42)K% 15.6% → 18.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.61%÷1.002×1.200——18.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.64%÷0.963×0.690—×0.9725.32%
HBP% /PA1.99%—×0.940—×0.9721.82%
Singles /BIP21.46%÷0.953×0.930×0.950×0.97219.34%
Doubles /BIP6.85%÷0.896×0.830×0.950×0.9725.86%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.970×0.950×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP1.83%÷1.038×0.840—×0.9721.44%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .297 → .255; ISO .102 → .085; BABIP .284 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARound Rock Express · 232 PAwOBA .264 → .239 (−25)K% 14.7% → 17.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.66%÷1.055×1.290——17.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.90%÷0.978×0.710—×0.9824.92%
HBP% /PA0.86%—×0.980—×0.9820.83%
Singles /BIP21.64%÷0.962×0.900×1.050×0.98220.87%
Doubles /BIP5.26%÷1.019×0.810×1.050×0.9824.31%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.810×1.050×0.9820.00%
Home runs /BIP1.17%÷0.978×0.780—×0.9820.92%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 92, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 111, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .264 → .239; ISO .073 → .061; BABIP .266 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 257 PAwOBA .322 → .280 (−42)K% 14.4% → 18.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.40%÷0.992×1.290——18.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.23%÷1.028×0.710—×0.9924.27%
HBP% /PA0.39%—×0.980—×0.9920.38%
Singles /BIP29.80%÷0.978×0.900×1.006×0.99227.36%
Doubles /BIP6.06%÷0.926×0.810×1.006×0.9925.29%
Triples /BIP0.51%÷1.150×0.810×1.006×0.9920.35%
Home runs /BIP0.51%÷0.963×0.780—×0.9920.41%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .322 → .280; ISO .072 → .060; BABIP .362 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .