Bryce Brentz
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 605 | .260/.336/.518 | 38 | 2 | 92 | — | .221/.270/.405 |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 250 | .253/.325/.524 | 15 | 1 | 69 | — | .191/.244/.402 |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 378 | .207/.306/.422 | 18 | 0 | 53 | — | .168/.245/.332 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 321 | 288 | 79 | 15 | 1 | 19 | 26 | 80 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 274 | 341 | 531 | 872 | 257 | 311 | 25 | 8 | 376 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 186 | 170 | 61 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 359 | 414 | 647 | 1.061 | 288 | 403 | 19 | 8 | 459 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 167 | 118 | 284 | 182 | 33 | 6 | 139 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 504 | 456 | 135 | 30 | 1 | 17 | 40 | 130 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 296 | 358 | 478 | 836 | 182 | 377 | 26 | 8 | 367 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 71 | 64 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 297 | 366 | 438 | 804 | 141 | 395 | 27 | 8 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 349 | 326 | 86 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 20 | 86 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 264 | 312 | 475 | 788 | 212 | 309 | 25 | 6 | 346 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 19 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 316 | 706 | 1.022 | 471 | 182 | 21 | 5 | 430 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL | Leones del Escogido | — | 63 | 57 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 105 | 190 | 193 | 383 | 88 | 143 | 33 | 10 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 26 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 308 | 385 | 692 | 77 | 471 | 35 | 0 | 308 | 85 | -0 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +1 | -0.4 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 267 | 230 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 58 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 243 | 343 | 465 | 809 | 222 | 272 | 22 | 12 | 355 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 21 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 190 | 111 | 302 | 56 | 77 | 24 | 14 | 161 | -59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 250 | 220 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 74 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 313 | 382 | 695 | 150 | 303 | 30 | 10 | 309 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 32 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 375 | 407 | 782 | 148 | 286 | 16 | 12 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 64 | 61 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 279 | 312 | 377 | 690 | 98 | 372 | 27 | 5 | 309 | 90 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 212 | 204 | 51 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 278 | 402 | 680 | 152 | 318 | 25 | 4 | 300 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 48 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 333 | 325 | 658 | 125 | 280 | 29 | 15 | 308 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 494 | 450 | 122 | 21 | 1 | 31 | 42 | 109 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 271 | 335 | 529 | 864 | 258 | 293 | 22 | 9 | 376 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 111 | 92 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 342 | 467 | 810 | 261 | 200 | 23 | 17 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA | Las Vegas 51s | — | 214 | 193 | 51 | 16 | 0 | 15 | 19 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 264 | 333 | 580 | 914 | 316 | 321 | 31 | 9 | 392 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | INTL | Naranjeros de Hermosillo | — | 36 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 278 | 188 | 465 | 261 | 25 | 11 | 228 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 357 | 310 | 67 | 17 | 0 | 18 | 39 | 122 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 216 | 315 | 445 | 761 | 229 | 285 | 34 | 11 | 336 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | INTL | Cangrejeros de Santurce | — | 21 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 143 | 53 | 195 | 91 | 38 | 10 | 110 | -40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 90 | 87 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 287 | 311 | 379 | 690 | 92 | 400 | 29 | 3 | 309 | 95 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -7 | +2 | -0.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 321 | 300 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 120 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 213 | 256 | 403 | 659 | 190 | 281 | 37 | 4 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 186 | 175 | 49 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 280 | 323 | 509 | 831 | 229 | 343 | 26 | 5 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 167 | 118 | 284 | 182 | 39 | 6 | 117 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 504 | 470 | 118 | 23 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 166 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 251 | 296 | 381 | 677 | 130 | 351 | 33 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 349 | 333 | 78 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 102 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 269 | 396 | 666 | 162 | 296 | 29 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 19 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 211 | 353 | 563 | 235 | 118 | 32 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 26 | 26 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 308 | 385 | 692 | 77 | 471 | 35 | 0 | 294 | 85 | -0 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +1 | -0.4 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 267 | 241 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 71 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 207 | 279 | 365 | 644 | 158 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 95 | 100 | 195 | 50 | 52 | 33 | 5 | 81 | -59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 250 | 227 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 93 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 260 | 313 | 573 | 115 | 288 | 37 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 64 | 61 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 279 | 312 | 377 | 690 | 98 | 372 | 27 | 5 | 301 | 90 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +1 | -0.3 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 212 | 206 | 46 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 223 | 245 | 350 | 595 | 126 | 307 | 30 | 3 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 48 | 42 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 271 | 286 | 557 | 119 | 243 | 35 | 10 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 494 | 462 | 102 | 17 | 1 | 22 | 30 | 133 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 221 | 270 | 405 | 675 | 184 | 260 | 27 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas 51s | — | 214 | 199 | 38 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 244 | 402 | 646 | 211 | 272 | 41 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 357 | 322 | 54 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 27 | 146 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 168 | 245 | 332 | 577 | 165 | 244 | 41 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 474 | 113 | 18 | 3 | 24 | 24 | 169 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 238 | 282 | 441 | 723 | 203 | 312 | 33 | 5 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 507 | 458 | 140 | 25 | 4 | 30 | 40 | 115 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 306 | 368 | 574 | 942 | 269 | 347 | 23 | 8 | 406 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 593 | 553 | 135 | 26 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 197 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 244 | 290 | 365 | 656 | 121 | 352 | 33 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 593 | 537 | 156 | 31 | 2 | 19 | 47 | 155 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 291 | 353 | 462 | 815 | 171 | 373 | 26 | 8 | 359 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 431 | 412 | 94 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 126 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 262 | 396 | 658 | 167 | 286 | 29 | 3 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 431 | 400 | 96 | 20 | 1 | 20 | 27 | 111 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 295 | 445 | 740 | 205 | 283 | 26 | 6 | 326 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 314 | 287 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 87 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 202 | 266 | 341 | 607 | 139 | 258 | 28 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 314 | 274 | 65 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 72 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 237 | 330 | 434 | 764 | 197 | 276 | 23 | 11 | 338 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 256 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 105 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 263 | 316 | 579 | 117 | 297 | 37 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 282 | 247 | 58 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 79 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 320 | 385 | 705 | 150 | 301 | 28 | 10 | 314 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 324 | 310 | 69 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 98 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 223 | 256 | 339 | 595 | 116 | 309 | 30 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 324 | 305 | 76 | 22 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 83 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 249 | 293 | 387 | 680 | 138 | 324 | 26 | 6 | 303 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 605 | 566 | 125 | 21 | 1 | 27 | 37 | 163 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 270 | 405 | 674 | 184 | 260 | 27 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 605 | 542 | 141 | 24 | 1 | 38 | 61 | 134 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 260 | 336 | 518 | 855 | 258 | 278 | 22 | 10 | 373 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 250 | 233 | 45 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 102 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 245 | 408 | 653 | 215 | 275 | 41 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 250 | 225 | 57 | 16 | 0 | 15 | 23 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 253 | 325 | 524 | 850 | 271 | 311 | 30 | 9 | 368 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 378 | 342 | 57 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 155 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 167 | 242 | 330 | 572 | 164 | 246 | 41 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 378 | 329 | 68 | 17 | 0 | 18 | 41 | 130 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 207 | 306 | 422 | 728 | 216 | 273 | 34 | 11 | 323 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 473 | 113 | 18 | 3 | 24 | 24 | 169 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 239 | 282 | 442 | 724 | 203 | 304 | 33 | 5 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 593 | 552 | 135 | 26 | 1 | 13 | 31 | 197 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 245 | 290 | 366 | 656 | 121 | 345 | 33 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 431 | 409 | 94 | 16 | 1 | 17 | 15 | 126 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 230 | 262 | 399 | 661 | 169 | 287 | 29 | 3 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 314 | 286 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 87 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 203 | 266 | 343 | 609 | 140 | 258 | 28 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 282 | 258 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 105 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 263 | 314 | 577 | 116 | 288 | 37 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 324 | 307 | 69 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 98 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 225 | 256 | 342 | 598 | 117 | 310 | 30 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 605 | 562 | 125 | 21 | 1 | 27 | 37 | 163 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 270 | 407 | 677 | 185 | 260 | 27 | 6 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 250 | 232 | 45 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 15 | 102 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 245 | 409 | 654 | 216 | 272 | 41 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 378 | 341 | 57 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 155 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 167 | 242 | 331 | 573 | 164 | 244 | 41 | 7 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 90 | 87 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 287 | 311 | 379 | 690 | 92 | 400 | 29 | 3 | 309 | 76 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -7 | +2 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 628 | 180 | 36 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 287 | 311 | 377 | 688 | 91 | 400 | 29 | 3 | 309 | 76 | -4 | +0 | -10 | -49 | +14 | -5.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3684 | 3433 | 747 | 149 | 9 | 127 | 204 | 1202 | 29 | 20 | 13 | 218 | 267 | 377 | 645 | 160 | 292 | 33 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -1 | +0 | -1 | -7 | +2 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 606 | 132 | 26 | 2 | 22 | 36 | 212 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 218 | 267 | 376 | 644 | 158 | 293 | 33 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -4 | +0 | -10 | -49 | +14 | -5.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 357 PAwOBA .329 → .254 (−75)K% 34.2% → 40.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.17% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.92% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 7.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.02% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 15.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.04% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 7.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.57% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.962 | 7.46% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .329 → .254; ISO .229 → .173; BABIP .285 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAALas Vegas 51s · 214 PAwOBA .382 → .277 (−106)K% 31.3% → 41.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.31% | ÷0.986 | ×1.290 | — | — | 40.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.88% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.972 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.972 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.87% | ÷0.992 | ×0.900 | ×1.005 | ×0.972 | 14.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.70% | ÷0.918 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.972 | 10.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.810 | ×1.005 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.90% | ÷1.009 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.972 | 8.95% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 92, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .382 → .277; ISO .316 → .221; BABIP .321 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 494 PAwOBA .366 → .292 (−74)K% 22.1% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.06% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.50% | ÷0.937 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.20% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.23% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | ×1.001 | ×0.982 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.16% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×0.982 | 5.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.001 | ×0.982 | 0.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.106 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 6.78% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 100, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .366 → .292; ISO .258 → .192; BABIP .293 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 212 PAwOBA .291 → .254 (−38)K% 24.5% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.53% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.77% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 2.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.08% | ÷0.957 | ×0.930 | ×1.032 | ×0.992 | 18.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.18% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×0.992 | 10.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷0.912 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×0.992 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.994 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 2.21% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 85, 3B 82, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .291 → .254; ISO .152 → .128; BABIP .318 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 48 PAwOBA .301 → .222 (−78)K% 29.2% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.17% | ÷0.985 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.58% | ÷1.050 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 9.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.040 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.968 | 17.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.997 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 6.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.371 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 2.12% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 174, 1B 108, 2B 99, 3B 106, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .301 → .222; ISO .125 → .081; BABIP .280 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 250 PAwOBA .306 → .256 (−49)K% 29.6% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.60% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.60% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.29% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 22.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.16% | ÷0.867 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 6.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.48% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 4.56% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 73, 3B 102, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .306 → .256; ISO .150 → .124; BABIP .303 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 267 PAwOBA .349 → .282 (−66)K% 21.7% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.72% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.99% | ÷1.084 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.02% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×1.003 | ×1.018 | 17.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.40% | ÷0.937 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.018 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.104 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | ×1.018 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.240 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 4.81% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 95, 2B 87, 3B 121, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .349 → .282; ISO .222 → .167; BABIP .272 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKGCL Red Sox · 21 PAwOBA .131 → .081 (−50)K% 23.8% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 5.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 5.21% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .131 → .081; ISO .056 → .037; BABIP .077 → .052. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .