Kevin Ahrens
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 24 | AATOR | 265 | .218/.287/.340 | 4 | 0 | 44 | — | .192/.241/.286 |
| 2014 | 25 | A+Lynchburg Hil… | 536 | .266/.339/.400 | 7 | 1 | 60 | — | .216/.269/.313 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAMississippi B… | 463 | .238/.319/.361 | 9 | 8 | 71 | — | .221/.279/.340 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 192 | 165 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 230 | 339 | 321 | 660 | 91 | 304 | 24 | 13 | 308 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 514 | 460 | 119 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 135 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 259 | 331 | 367 | 699 | 109 | 352 | 26 | 9 | 315 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 377 | 81 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 286 | 302 | 588 | 88 | 253 | 18 | 9 | 265 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 118 | 107 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 187 | 243 | 290 | 533 | 103 | 218 | 17 | 6 | 236 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 276 | 253 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 51 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 265 | 321 | 423 | 744 | 158 | 301 | 18 | 8 | 328 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 497 | 429 | 104 | 24 | 0 | 13 | 56 | 99 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 242 | 338 | 389 | 727 | 147 | 282 | 20 | 11 | 326 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | INTL | Phoenix Desert Dogs | — | 103 | 93 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 269 | 333 | 387 | 720 | 118 | 348 | 23 | 9 | 321 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 477 | 409 | 98 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 60 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 341 | 345 | 686 | 105 | 282 | 18 | 13 | 313 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 265 | 238 | 52 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 287 | 340 | 628 | 122 | 265 | 21 | 9 | 280 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 536 | 478 | 127 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 82 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 339 | 400 | 739 | 134 | 305 | 15 | 9 | 329 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 463 | 407 | 97 | 23 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 79 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 238 | 319 | 361 | 680 | 123 | 271 | 17 | 10 | 304 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 192 | 175 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 160 | 234 | 217 | 452 | 57 | 250 | 35 | 8 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 514 | 474 | 101 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 183 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 269 | 297 | 566 | 84 | 329 | 36 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 387 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 108 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 255 | 276 | 531 | 78 | 252 | 25 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 118 | 108 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 235 | 287 | 522 | 102 | 216 | 24 | 5 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 276 | 260 | 55 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 69 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 212 | 252 | 338 | 590 | 127 | 256 | 25 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 497 | 444 | 88 | 21 | 0 | 11 | 41 | 142 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 198 | 275 | 320 | 595 | 122 | 255 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 477 | 425 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 193 | 273 | 280 | 553 | 87 | 245 | 26 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 265 | 245 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 241 | 286 | 527 | 94 | 247 | 26 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 536 | 495 | 107 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 119 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 216 | 269 | 313 | 582 | 97 | 266 | 22 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 463 | 421 | 93 | 23 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 94 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 221 | 279 | 340 | 619 | 119 | 254 | 20 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 192 | 175 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 160 | 234 | 217 | 452 | 57 | 248 | 35 | 8 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Blue Jays | — | 192 | 165 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 47 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 230 | 339 | 321 | 660 | 91 | 304 | 24 | 13 | 308 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 514 | 474 | 101 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 183 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 269 | 297 | 566 | 84 | 333 | 36 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 514 | 460 | 119 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 135 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 259 | 331 | 367 | 699 | 109 | 352 | 26 | 9 | 315 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 387 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 108 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 199 | 255 | 276 | 531 | 78 | 261 | 25 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 377 | 81 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 76 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 286 | 302 | 588 | 88 | 253 | 18 | 9 | 265 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 368 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 98 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 198 | 242 | 312 | 554 | 114 | 245 | 25 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 394 | 360 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 71 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 242 | 298 | 383 | 682 | 142 | 276 | 18 | 7 | 301 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 600 | 537 | 107 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 50 | 172 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 275 | 320 | 595 | 121 | 262 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 600 | 522 | 129 | 32 | 0 | 14 | 65 | 123 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 247 | 337 | 389 | 726 | 142 | 293 | 20 | 11 | 325 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 477 | 425 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 193 | 273 | 280 | 553 | 87 | 251 | 26 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ RAW | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 477 | 409 | 98 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 60 | 87 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 240 | 341 | 345 | 686 | 105 | 282 | 18 | 13 | 313 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 265 | 245 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 241 | 286 | 527 | 94 | 251 | 26 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA RAW | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 265 | 238 | 52 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 287 | 340 | 628 | 122 | 265 | 21 | 9 | 280 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 536 | 495 | 107 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 119 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 216 | 269 | 313 | 582 | 97 | 271 | 22 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ RAW | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 536 | 478 | 127 | 41 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 82 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 339 | 400 | 739 | 134 | 305 | 15 | 9 | 329 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 463 | 421 | 93 | 23 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 94 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 221 | 279 | 340 | 619 | 119 | 259 | 20 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 463 | 407 | 97 | 23 | 0 | 9 | 47 | 79 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 238 | 319 | 361 | 680 | 123 | 271 | 17 | 10 | 304 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 192 | 173 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 162 | 234 | 220 | 454 | 58 | 250 | 35 | 8 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 514 | 473 | 101 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 183 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 214 | 269 | 298 | 567 | 85 | 329 | 36 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 424 | 392 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 108 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 196 | 255 | 273 | 528 | 77 | 252 | 25 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 370 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 98 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 197 | 242 | 311 | 552 | 114 | 244 | 25 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 600 | 539 | 107 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 50 | 172 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 275 | 319 | 594 | 121 | 255 | 29 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 477 | 427 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 44 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 192 | 273 | 279 | 552 | 87 | 245 | 26 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 265 | 247 | 47 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 241 | 283 | 525 | 93 | 247 | 26 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 536 | 495 | 107 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 119 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 216 | 269 | 313 | 582 | 97 | 266 | 22 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 463 | 426 | 93 | 23 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 94 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 218 | 279 | 336 | 615 | 117 | 254 | 20 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3865 | 3527 | 715 | 161 | 11 | 54 | 268 | 1035 | 24 | 23 | 10 | 203 | 264 | 301 | 564 | 98 | 267 | 27 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -202 | +1 | +0 | +14 | +84 | -10.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 120 | 27 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 174 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 202 | 263 | 300 | 563 | 98 | 266 | 27 | 7 | 251 | 56 | -34 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAMississippi Braves · 463 PAwOBA .300 → .273 (−27)K% 17.1% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.06% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.15% | ÷0.965 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 7.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.22% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.82% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 18.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.01% | ÷0.927 | ×0.910 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 6.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.880 | ×1.027 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.77% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 104, 2B 85, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .300 → .273; ISO .123 → .126; BABIP .271 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 536 PAwOBA .324 → .257 (−67)K% 15.3% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.30% | ÷0.979 | ×1.420 | — | — | 22.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.96% | ÷0.948 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 5.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.70% | ÷0.990 | ×0.940 | ×1.002 | ×0.978 | 18.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.35% | ÷1.041 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×0.978 | 8.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.25% | ÷0.900 | ×0.800 | ×1.002 | ×0.978 | 0.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.77% | ÷1.139 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 1.37% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .324 → .257; ISO .134 → .101; BABIP .305 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 265 PAwOBA .275 → .233 (−42)K% 20.8% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.75% | ÷0.969 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.68% | ÷1.007 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.49% | ÷0.986 | ×0.970 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 17.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 6.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷1.068 | ×0.950 | ×0.990 | ×1.012 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.19% | ÷0.975 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.77% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 114, K 94, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .275 → .233; ISO .122 → .099; BABIP .265 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 477 PAwOBA .309 → .250 (−59)K% 18.2% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.24% | ÷1.001 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.58% | ÷1.020 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 9.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.36% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 19.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.28% | ÷1.111 | ×0.960 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.31% | ÷1.014 | ×0.810 | ×0.988 | ×0.998 | 0.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.944 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 107, 2B 122, 3B 103, K 100, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .309 → .250; ISO .105 → .089; BABIP .282 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 497 PAwOBA .320 → .266 (−54)K% 19.9% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.92% | ÷0.989 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.87% | ÷0.993 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 8.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.30% | ÷1.010 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 18.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.004 | ×0.960 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 6.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.969 | ×0.810 | ×0.976 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.94% | ÷1.008 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.48% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 101, 3B 94, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .320 → .266; ISO .147 → .124; BABIP .282 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 ALansing Lugnuts · 276 PAwOBA .322 → .257 (−65)K% 18.5% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.48% | ÷1.003 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.61% | ÷1.033 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.28% | ÷1.039 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 19.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.94% | ÷1.116 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 4.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.992 | ×0.910 | ×0.981 | ×1.015 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.96% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.61% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 108, 2B 123, 3B 98, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .322 → .257; ISO .158 → .130; BABIP .301 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 118 PAwOBA .232 → .211 (−21)K% 16.9% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.95% | ÷1.003 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.93% | ÷0.965 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.027 | 4.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.027 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 13.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.044 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 6.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.15% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.15% | ÷0.994 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 96, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 101, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .232 → .211; ISO .103 → .091; BABIP .218 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 424 PAwOBA .262 → .237 (−25)K% 17.9% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.92% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.042 | 6.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.042 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×1.042 | 19.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.960 | ×1.031 | ×1.042 | 5.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.031 | ×1.042 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 1.22% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .262 → .237; ISO .088 → .081; BABIP .253 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .