Carlos Alvarez

PosRF

B/TL/R

Born1987-10-28

Age (2027)39

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLLAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	31	AAABravos de Leon	77	.295/.427/.361	85	—	.258/.347/.318
2020	32	INTLSultanes de M…	69	.203/.309/.237	62	—
2021	33	INTLSultanes de M…	35	.065/.147/.097	-31	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2008	20	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	63	58	13	1	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	224	274	293	567	69	250	14	6	256	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	37	31	8	0	0	0	5	9	1	1	1	258	378	258	636		364	24	14	310	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	143	117	34	6	1	4	22	25	0	4	2	291	403	462	864	171	337	17	15	376	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	181	152	45	11	1	4	19	34	1	1	0	296	378	461	838	164	357	19	10	355	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	55	46	15	2	0	3	9	10	0	0	0	326	436	565	1.002	239	364	18	16	439	183	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	252	212	53	14	1	5	30	45	2	1	1	250	348	396	745	146	296	18	12	326	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	38	34	8	1	0	2	4	11	0	1	0	235	316	441	757	206	286	29	11	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	225	180	50	10	2	3	39	27	0	6	3	278	406	406	812	128	311	12	17	361	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	202	163	42	8	2	3	25	32	7	1	2	258	379	387	766	129	300	16	12	339	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	33	29	6	0	1	1	4	10	0	0	0	207	303	379	682	172	278	30	12	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	230	197	62	3	3	1	27	33	3	1	2	315	405	376	781	61	374	14	12	355	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	INTL	Venados de Mazatlan	—	85	74	15	4	0	0	8	21	0	1	0	203	280	257	537	54	283	25	9	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	249	214	55	13	2	1	25	39	6	6	2	257	351	350	701	93	309	16	10	318	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA	Bravos de Leon	—	77	61	18	4	0	0	13	14	1	0	1	295	427	361	787	66	375	18	17	359	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	69	59	12	2	0	0	8	11	1	0	0	203	309	237	546	34	245	16	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	INTL	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	35	31	2	1	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	65	147	97	244	32	80	20	9	122	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2008	20	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	63	59	13	1	0	1	3	11	0	0	0	220	258	288	546	68	253	17	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	37	32	8	0	0	0	4	11	1	1	1	250	351	250	601		355	30	11	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	143	124	31	5	1	3	15	31	0	4	2	250	331	379	710	129	294	22	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	181	160	42	10	1	3	11	44	1	1	0	263	314	394	708	131	316	24	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	252	221	48	13	1	3	21	56	2	1	1	217	291	326	617	109	263	22	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	225	194	46	8	2	2	25	33	0	6	3	237	324	330	654	93	271	15	11	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	202	171	41	8	2	2	17	39	7	1	2	240	333	345	678	105	275	19	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	230	207	58	2	3	1	17	42	3	1	2	280	344	333	677	53	342	18	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	249	223	47	11	2	1	16	49	6	6	2	211	282	291	573	81	257	20	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	Bravos de Leon	—	77	66	17	4	0	0	8	16	1	0	1	258	347	318	665	61	317	21	10	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	63	59	13	1	0	1	3	11	0	0	0	220	258	288	546	68	255	17	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	AAA RAW	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	63	58	13	1	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	224	274	293	567	69	250	14	6	256	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	37	32	8	0	0	0	4	11	1	1	1	250	351	250	601		381	30	11	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	AAA RAW	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	37	31	8	0	0	0	5	9	1	1	1	258	378	258	636		364	24	14	310	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	143	124	31	5	1	3	15	31	0	4	2	250	331	379	710	129	308	22	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA RAW	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	143	117	34	6	1	4	22	25	0	4	2	291	403	462	864	171	337	17	15	376	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	236	211	55	13	1	4	15	57	1	1	0	261	313	389	701	128	338	24	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	236	198	60	13	1	7	28	44	1	1	0	303	392	485	877	182	358	19	12	375	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	290	256	56	15	1	4	24	64	2	2	1	219	291	332	623	113	277	22	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	290	246	61	15	1	7	34	56	2	2	1	248	344	402	746	154	295	19	12	328	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	225	194	46	8	2	2	25	33	0	6	3	237	324	330	654	93	275	15	11	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA RAW	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	225	180	50	10	2	3	39	27	0	6	3	278	406	406	812	128	311	12	17	361	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	235	201	47	9	3	2	20	45	7	1	2	234	325	338	663	104	288	19	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	235	192	48	8	3	4	29	42	7	1	2	250	368	385	754	135	297	18	12	335	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	315	283	80	3	4	1	23	57	3	2	2	283	343	332	675	49	351	18	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	315	271	77	7	3	1	35	54	3	2	2	284	372	343	715	59	352	17	11	325	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	249	223	47	11	2	1	16	49	6	6	2	211	282	291	573	81	264	20	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA RAW	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	249	214	55	13	2	1	25	39	6	6	2	257	351	350	701	93	309	16	10	318	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	Bravos de Leon	—	77	66	17	4	0	0	8	16	1	0	1	258	347	318	665	61	333	21	10	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA RAW	Bravos de Leon	—	77	61	18	4	0	0	13	14	1	0	1	295	427	361	787	66	375	18	17	359	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	INTL MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	69	59	12	2	0	0	8	11	1	0	0	203	309	237	546	34	245	16	12	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	INTL RAW	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	69	59	12	2	0	0	8	11	1	0	0	203	309	237	546	34	245	16	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	INTL MLE	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	35	31	2	1	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	65	147	97	244	32	80	20	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	INTL RAW	Sultanes de Monterrey	—	35	31	2	1	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	65	147	97	244	32	80	20	9	122	-31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	63	60	13	1	0	1	3	11	0	0	0	217	258	283	541	67	253	17	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	37	32	8	0	0	0	4	11	1	1	1	250	351	250	601		355	30	11	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	143	127	31	5	1	3	15	31	0	4	2	244	331	370	701	126	294	22	10	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	236	218	55	13	1	4	15	57	1	1	0	252	313	376	689	124	316	24	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	290	262	56	15	1	4	24	64	2	2	1	214	291	324	615	111	263	22	8	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	225	198	46	8	2	2	25	33	0	6	3	232	324	323	647	91	271	15	11	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	235	206	47	9	3	2	20	45	7	1	2	228	325	330	655	102	275	19	9	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	315	286	80	3	4	1	23	57	3	2	2	280	343	329	672	49	342	18	7	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	249	225	47	11	2	1	16	49	6	6	2	209	282	289	571	80	257	20	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	Bravos de Leon	—	77	68	17	4	0	0	8	16	1	0	1	250	347	309	655	59	317	21	10	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	1974	1739	414	72	14	18	164	392	22	23	14	238	312	327	638	89	296	20	8	270	69	-73	-1	+0	-21	+43	-5.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	137	24	5	6	54	129	7	8	5	239	312	330	642	91	297	20	8	270	69	-24	-0	+0	-7	+14	-1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAABravos de Leon · 77 PAwOBA .351 → .294 (−56)K% 18.2% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.18%	÷1.032	×1.200	—	—	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.58%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×0.952	9.90%
HBP% /PA	1.30%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.16%
Singles /BIP	29.79%	÷1.037	×0.930	—	×0.952	25.43%
Doubles /BIP	8.51%	÷0.973	×0.830	—	×0.952	6.91%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.125	×0.920	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.227	×0.700	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 145, 1B 107, 2B 95, 3B 125, K 106, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .351 → .294; ISO .066 → .059; BABIP .375 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 249 PAwOBA .310 → .251 (−59)K% 15.7% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.66%	÷0.961	×1.200	—	—	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.64%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.50%
HBP% /PA	2.41%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	2.20%
Singles /BIP	22.29%	÷1.067	×0.930	×0.992	×0.972	18.73%
Doubles /BIP	7.43%	÷0.972	×0.830	×0.992	×0.972	6.12%
Triples /BIP	1.14%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.992	×0.972	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	0.57%	÷1.093	×0.700	—	×0.972	0.36%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 113, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 92, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .310 → .251; ISO .093 → .075; BABIP .309 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 230 PAwOBA .345 → .298 (−47)K% 14.3% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.35%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	18.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.30%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.32%
HBP% /PA	1.30%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.20%
Singles /BIP	33.54%	÷1.007	×0.930	×1.022	×0.982	31.09%
Doubles /BIP	1.83%	÷1.154	×0.830	×1.022	×0.982	1.32%
Triples /BIP	1.83%	÷1.059	×0.920	×1.022	×0.982	1.60%
Home runs /BIP	0.61%	÷0.966	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.43%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 131, 3B 112, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .345 → .298; ISO .061 → .050; BABIP .374 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 202 PAwOBA .329 → .297 (−32)K% 15.8% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.84%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	19.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.89%	÷0.903	×0.690	—	×0.992	8.26%
HBP% /PA	3.47%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	3.23%
Singles /BIP	22.14%	÷1.024	×0.930	×1.027	×0.992	20.47%
Doubles /BIP	6.11%	÷0.948	×0.830	×1.027	×0.992	5.44%
Triples /BIP	1.53%	÷0.900	×0.920	×1.027	×0.992	1.59%
Home runs /BIP	2.29%	÷1.099	×0.700	—	×0.992	1.45%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 98, BB 81 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .329 → .297; ISO .129 → .111; BABIP .300 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 225 PAwOBA .348 → .300 (−48)K% 12.0% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.00%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	14.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.56%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.003	11.04%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.88%	÷1.036	×0.930	×0.999	×1.003	20.58%
Doubles /BIP	6.54%	÷1.076	×0.830	×0.999	×1.003	5.05%
Triples /BIP	1.31%	÷0.933	×0.920	×0.999	×1.003	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.43%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 107, 2B 115, 3B 87, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .348 → .300; ISO .128 → .110; BABIP .311 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 252 PAwOBA .315 → .268 (−47)K% 17.9% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.86%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	22.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷0.937	×0.690	—	×1.018	8.33%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.76%
Singles /BIP	19.76%	÷1.057	×0.930	×1.008	×1.018	17.84%
Doubles /BIP	8.38%	÷0.956	×0.830	×1.008	×1.018	7.47%
Triples /BIP	0.60%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.008	×1.018	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	2.99%	÷1.129	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.89%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 111, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 93, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .315 → .268; ISO .146 → .115; BABIP .296 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 181 PAwOBA .346 → .296 (−50)K% 18.8% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.78%	÷0.928	×1.200	—	—	24.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.94%	÷1.136	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.24%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.54%
Singles /BIP	24.58%	÷1.036	×0.930	×0.988	×1.033	22.53%
Doubles /BIP	9.32%	÷1.003	×0.830	×0.988	×1.033	7.88%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.988	×1.033	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	3.39%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.033	2.49%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 107, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 86, BB 127 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .346 → .296; ISO .164 → .137; BABIP .357 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 143 PAwOBA .370 → .309 (−61)K% 17.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.48%	÷0.956	×1.200	—	—	21.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷1.079	×0.690	—	×1.048	10.31%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.049	×0.930	×0.964	×1.048	22.39%
Doubles /BIP	6.52%	÷1.008	×0.830	×0.964	×1.048	5.42%
Triples /BIP	1.09%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.964	×1.048	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	4.35%	÷0.920	×0.700	—	×1.048	3.47%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 91, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .370 → .309; ISO .171 → .146; BABIP .337 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .