David Urias
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 29 | AAADelfines de C… | 363 | .276/.309/.371 | 4 | 2 | 65 | — | .264/.289/.343 |
| 2015 | 30 | AAADelfines de C… | 204 | .260/.271/.302 | 0 | 1 | 34 | — | .234/.241/.274 |
| 2016 | 31 | AAAToros de Tiju… | 21 | .333/.333/.476 | 0 | 0 | 91 | — | .333/.333/.476 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 22 | AAA | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 172 | 163 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 221 | 249 | 276 | 525 | 55 | 265 | 19 | 2 | 234 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AAA | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 250 | 228 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 259 | 310 | 320 | 630 | 61 | 299 | 13 | 6 | 282 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AAA | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 56 | 53 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 283 | 309 | 396 | 705 | 113 | 357 | 20 | 0 | 309 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 305 | 273 | 83 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 304 | 345 | 385 | 729 | 81 | 345 | 12 | 5 | 312 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 155 | 144 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 326 | 358 | 424 | 781 | 97 | 354 | 11 | 4 | 341 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 250 | 223 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 287 | 332 | 372 | 704 | 85 | 333 | 16 | 5 | 303 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 363 | 337 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 276 | 309 | 371 | 680 | 95 | 306 | 12 | 4 | 296 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 204 | 192 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 260 | 271 | 302 | 573 | 42 | 287 | 9 | 2 | 250 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | Toros de Tijuana | — | 21 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 476 | 810 | 143 | 389 | 14 | 0 | 356 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 22 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 172 | 164 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 213 | 237 | 262 | 499 | 49 | 261 | 22 | 2 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 250 | 233 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 258 | 294 | 313 | 607 | 56 | 300 | 15 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 56 | 53 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 291 | 358 | 649 | 94 | 333 | 23 | 0 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 305 | 279 | 86 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 308 | 334 | 387 | 722 | 79 | 340 | 15 | 3 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 155 | 146 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 315 | 338 | 404 | 742 | 89 | 339 | 14 | 3 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 250 | 227 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 291 | 324 | 357 | 680 | 66 | 326 | 17 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 363 | 341 | 90 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 50 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 264 | 289 | 343 | 632 | 79 | 290 | 14 | 2 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 204 | 197 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 234 | 241 | 274 | 515 | 41 | 251 | 10 | 1 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Toros de Tijuana | — | 21 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 476 | 810 | 143 | 349 | 14 | 0 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 172 | 164 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 213 | 237 | 262 | 499 | 49 | 268 | 22 | 2 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | AAA RAW | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 172 | 163 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 221 | 249 | 276 | 525 | 55 | 265 | 19 | 2 | 234 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 250 | 233 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 258 | 294 | 313 | 607 | 56 | 306 | 15 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AAA RAW | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 250 | 228 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 259 | 310 | 320 | 630 | 61 | 299 | 13 | 6 | 282 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 56 | 53 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 264 | 291 | 358 | 649 | 94 | 350 | 23 | 0 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AAA RAW | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 56 | 53 | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 283 | 309 | 396 | 705 | 113 | 357 | 20 | 0 | 309 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 305 | 279 | 86 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 308 | 334 | 387 | 722 | 79 | 362 | 15 | 3 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA RAW | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 305 | 273 | 83 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 304 | 345 | 385 | 729 | 81 | 345 | 12 | 5 | 312 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 155 | 146 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 315 | 338 | 404 | 742 | 89 | 352 | 14 | 3 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA RAW | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 155 | 144 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 326 | 358 | 424 | 781 | 97 | 354 | 11 | 4 | 341 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 250 | 227 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 291 | 324 | 357 | 680 | 66 | 346 | 17 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA RAW | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 250 | 223 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 287 | 332 | 372 | 704 | 85 | 333 | 16 | 5 | 303 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 363 | 341 | 90 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 50 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 264 | 289 | 343 | 632 | 79 | 301 | 14 | 2 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA RAW | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 363 | 337 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 43 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 276 | 309 | 371 | 680 | 95 | 306 | 12 | 4 | 296 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 204 | 197 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 234 | 241 | 274 | 515 | 41 | 261 | 10 | 1 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA RAW | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 204 | 192 | 50 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 260 | 271 | 302 | 573 | 42 | 287 | 9 | 2 | 250 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Toros de Tijuana | — | 21 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 476 | 810 | 143 | 389 | 14 | 0 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA RAW | Toros de Tijuana | — | 21 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 476 | 810 | 143 | 389 | 14 | 0 | 356 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 172 | 165 | 35 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 212 | 237 | 261 | 497 | 48 | 261 | 22 | 2 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AAA MLE | Petroleros de Minatitlan | — | 250 | 236 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 254 | 294 | 309 | 603 | 55 | 300 | 15 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AAA MLE | Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz | — | 56 | 54 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 291 | 352 | 643 | 93 | 333 | 23 | 0 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 305 | 291 | 86 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 46 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 296 | 334 | 371 | 706 | 76 | 340 | 15 | 3 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Olmecas de Tabasco | — | 155 | 149 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 309 | 338 | 396 | 734 | 87 | 339 | 14 | 3 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 250 | 237 | 66 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 278 | 324 | 342 | 665 | 63 | 326 | 17 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 363 | 348 | 90 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 50 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 259 | 289 | 336 | 625 | 78 | 290 | 14 | 2 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Delfines de Ciudad del Carmen | — | 204 | 200 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 230 | 241 | 270 | 511 | 40 | 251 | 10 | 1 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Toros de Tijuana | — | 21 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 333 | 476 | 810 | 143 | 349 | 14 | 0 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1776 | 1661 | 450 | 68 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 272 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 271 | 296 | 340 | 636 | 69 | 317 | 15 | 3 | 270 | 69 | -66 | -4 | +0 | +19 | +38 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 608 | 165 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 100 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 271 | 297 | 342 | 639 | 71 | 318 | 15 | 3 | 270 | 69 | -24 | -2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAAToros de Tijuana · 21 PAwOBA .345 → .302 (−44)K% 14.3% → 16.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.062 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷0.967 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.962 | 20.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.926 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.962 | 14.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.941 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.278 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 93, 2B 85, 3B 88, K 112, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .345 → .302; ISO .143 → .120; BABIP .389 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 204 PAwOBA .244 → .218 (−26)K% 8.8% → 10.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.049 | ×1.200 | — | — | 10.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.96% | ÷1.102 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 1.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.095 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.972 | 20.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.60% | ÷0.934 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.972 | 4.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.907 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.867 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 119, 2B 87, 3B 81, K 110, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .244 → .218; ISO .042 → .039; BABIP .287 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 363 PAwOBA .289 → .265 (−24)K% 11.8% → 13.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.85% | ÷1.036 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.58% | ÷1.021 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 2.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.15% | ÷0.978 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 23.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.44% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 4.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.982 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 0.87% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .289 → .265; ISO .095 → .074; BABIP .306 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAADelfines de Ciudad del Carmen · 250 PAwOBA .297 → .290 (−7)K% 15.6% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.60% | ÷1.102 | ×1.200 | — | — | 16.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.20% | ÷0.969 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.72% | ÷0.967 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 27.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 4.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.950 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.63% | ÷0.949 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.19% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 93, 2B 99, 3B 90, K 120, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .297 → .290; ISO .085 → .073; BABIP .333 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAAOlmecas de Tabasco · 155 PAwOBA .336 → .315 (−21)K% 11.0% → 13.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.97% | ÷0.974 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.87% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 2.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.13% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 28.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.30% | ÷0.991 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.57% | ÷0.828 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.36% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 66, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 108, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .336 → .315; ISO .097 → .087; BABIP .354 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAAOlmecas de Tabasco · 305 PAwOBA .304 → .299 (−4)K% 12.1% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.13% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.92% | ÷1.077 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.66% | ÷1.015 | ×0.930 | ×1.046 | ×1.033 | 29.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.54% | ÷0.927 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.033 | 2.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.12% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×1.046 | ×1.033 | 2.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.904 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.68% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 103, 2B 85, 3B 104, K 93, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .304 → .299; ISO .081 → .078; BABIP .345 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAARojos del Aguila de Veracruz · 56 PAwOBA .301 → .272 (−28)K% 19.6% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 3.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 20.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 12.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .301 → .272; ISO .113 → .096; BABIP .357 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 AAAPetroleros de Minatitlan · 250 PAwOBA .275 → .267 (−8)K% 12.8% → 15.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.049 | ×1.050 | 24.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.049 | ×1.050 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.049 | ×1.050 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .275 → .267; ISO .061 → .058; BABIP .299 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).