KD Kang
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 471 | .262/.364/.469 | 15 | 4 | 77 | — | .212/.287/.369 |
| 2014 | 26 | AABowie Baysox | 412 | .282/.340/.452 | 12 | 2 | 86 | — | .255/.293/.397 |
| 2015 | 27 | AAMississippi B… | 449 | .271/.350/.384 | 6 | 4 | 71 | — | .231/.289/.333 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 19 | ROK | Princeton Devil Rays | — | 224 | 203 | 56 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 44 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 276 | 341 | 429 | 769 | 153 | 340 | 20 | 9 | 341 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 362 | 316 | 97 | 29 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 74 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 307 | 392 | 491 | 882 | 184 | 385 | 20 | 11 | 388 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 308 | 270 | 65 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 75 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 241 | 330 | 315 | 645 | 74 | 327 | 24 | 11 | 297 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 384 | 316 | 83 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 53 | 85 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 263 | 387 | 437 | 824 | 174 | 323 | 22 | 14 | 368 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 404 | 345 | 84 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 51 | 135 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 243 | 351 | 441 | 791 | 197 | 354 | 33 | 13 | 352 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 403 | 346 | 86 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 53 | 102 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 249 | 353 | 460 | 813 | 211 | 312 | 25 | 13 | 360 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 68 | 59 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 339 | 426 | 525 | 952 | 186 | 487 | 28 | 13 | 420 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 412 | 376 | 106 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 86 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 282 | 340 | 452 | 792 | 170 | 336 | 21 | 8 | 348 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 449 | 398 | 108 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 111 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 271 | 350 | 384 | 734 | 113 | 359 | 25 | 10 | 330 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Devil Rays | — | 224 | 211 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 209 | 251 | 313 | 564 | 104 | 284 | 28 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 362 | 329 | 83 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 99 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 252 | 317 | 395 | 712 | 143 | 346 | 27 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 308 | 280 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 109 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 200 | 268 | 250 | 518 | 50 | 318 | 35 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 384 | 333 | 79 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 100 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 237 | 332 | 396 | 728 | 159 | 294 | 26 | 9 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 404 | 360 | 69 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 164 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 192 | 276 | 328 | 604 | 136 | 309 | 41 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 403 | 364 | 74 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 126 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 203 | 279 | 360 | 638 | 157 | 277 | 31 | 9 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 68 | 61 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 262 | 338 | 426 | 764 | 164 | 444 | 41 | 10 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 412 | 388 | 99 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 107 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 255 | 293 | 397 | 690 | 142 | 320 | 26 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 449 | 412 | 95 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 132 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 231 | 289 | 333 | 622 | 102 | 316 | 29 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Devil Rays | — | 224 | 211 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 209 | 251 | 313 | 564 | 104 | 286 | 28 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 19 | ROK RAW | Princeton Devil Rays | — | 224 | 203 | 56 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 44 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 276 | 341 | 429 | 769 | 153 | 340 | 20 | 9 | 341 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 362 | 329 | 83 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 99 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 252 | 317 | 395 | 712 | 143 | 346 | 27 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 362 | 316 | 97 | 29 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 74 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 307 | 392 | 491 | 882 | 184 | 385 | 20 | 11 | 388 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 308 | 280 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 109 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 200 | 268 | 250 | 518 | 50 | 324 | 35 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ RAW | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 308 | 270 | 65 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 75 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 241 | 330 | 315 | 645 | 74 | 327 | 24 | 11 | 297 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 384 | 333 | 79 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 100 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 237 | 332 | 396 | 728 | 159 | 305 | 26 | 9 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 384 | 316 | 83 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 53 | 85 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 263 | 387 | 437 | 824 | 174 | 323 | 22 | 14 | 368 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 404 | 360 | 69 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 164 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 192 | 276 | 328 | 604 | 136 | 317 | 41 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 404 | 345 | 84 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 51 | 135 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 243 | 351 | 441 | 791 | 197 | 354 | 33 | 13 | 352 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 425 | 88 | 19 | 7 | 10 | 42 | 155 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 283 | 355 | 638 | 148 | 299 | 33 | 9 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 471 | 405 | 106 | 23 | 8 | 15 | 62 | 121 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 262 | 364 | 469 | 833 | 207 | 337 | 26 | 13 | 368 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 412 | 388 | 99 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 107 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 255 | 293 | 397 | 690 | 142 | 326 | 26 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | — | 412 | 376 | 106 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 32 | 86 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 282 | 340 | 452 | 792 | 170 | 336 | 21 | 8 | 348 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 449 | 412 | 95 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 132 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 231 | 289 | 333 | 622 | 102 | 321 | 29 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 449 | 398 | 108 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 111 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 271 | 350 | 384 | 734 | 113 | 359 | 25 | 10 | 330 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Devil Rays | — | 224 | 210 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 210 | 251 | 314 | 565 | 105 | 284 | 28 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 362 | 328 | 83 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 99 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 253 | 317 | 396 | 713 | 143 | 346 | 27 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 308 | 279 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 109 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 201 | 268 | 251 | 519 | 50 | 318 | 35 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 384 | 334 | 79 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 100 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 237 | 332 | 395 | 727 | 159 | 294 | 26 | 9 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 404 | 359 | 69 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 164 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 192 | 276 | 329 | 605 | 136 | 309 | 41 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 471 | 423 | 88 | 19 | 7 | 10 | 42 | 155 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 283 | 357 | 640 | 149 | 301 | 33 | 9 | 281 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 412 | 388 | 99 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 107 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 255 | 293 | 397 | 690 | 142 | 320 | 26 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 449 | 412 | 95 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 132 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 231 | 289 | 333 | 622 | 102 | 316 | 29 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3014 | 2738 | 613 | 128 | 32 | 51 | 228 | 928 | 30 | 35 | 23 | 224 | 291 | 350 | 641 | 126 | 317 | 31 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -85 | -2 | +0 | -32 | +65 | -5.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 133 | 28 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 200 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 225 | 291 | 353 | 644 | 127 | 319 | 31 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -18 | -0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAMississippi Braves · 449 PAwOBA .323 → .273 (−50)K% 24.7% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.72% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷0.965 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 6.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.22% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×0.978 | 24.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.23% | ÷0.927 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | ×0.978 | 4.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.09% | ÷1.005 | ×0.880 | ×0.985 | ×0.978 | 1.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.09% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.09% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 104, 2B 85, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .323 → .273; ISO .113 → .105; BABIP .359 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AABowie Baysox · 412 PAwOBA .340 → .296 (−44)K% 20.9% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.87% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.52% | ÷1.082 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.79% | ÷0.972 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×0.988 | 23.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷0.969 | ×0.860 | ×0.998 | ×0.988 | 6.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | ×0.988 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.14% | ÷0.919 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 3.47% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 94, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 96, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .340 → .296; ISO .170 → .145; BABIP .336 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 403 PAwOBA .350 → .277 (−74)K% 25.3% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.31% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.003 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 8.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.67% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 18.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.97% | ÷1.036 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 6.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.87% | ÷1.013 | ×0.880 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 2.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.151 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 3.98% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 103, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .350 → .277; ISO .211 → .160; BABIP .312 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 68 PAwOBA .409 → .308 (−101)K% 27.9% → 41.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.94% | ÷0.950 | ×1.420 | — | — | 41.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.24% | ÷1.010 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 9.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 26.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.978 | 14.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 2.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.888 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 2.42% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .409 → .308; ISO .186 → .146; BABIP .487 → .444. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 404 PAwOBA .344 → .267 (−76)K% 33.4% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.42% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.38% | ÷0.969 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷0.983 | ×0.910 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 7.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.90% | ÷1.037 | ×0.880 | ×0.978 | ×1.012 | 1.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.147 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.70% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 107, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .344 → .267; ISO .197 → .145; BABIP .354 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 384 PAwOBA .360 → .313 (−47)K% 22.1% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.14% | ÷1.035 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.28% | ÷0.983 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 9.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 2.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.38% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 20.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.902 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.73% | ÷0.994 | ×0.880 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.974 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.02% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 107, 2B 80, 3B 99, K 107, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .360 → .313; ISO .174 → .160; BABIP .323 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 308 PAwOBA .288 → .240 (−49)K% 24.4% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.35% | ÷0.979 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.06% | ÷0.988 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 7.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.62% | ÷0.948 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 24.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.097 | ×0.960 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 6.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷1.070 | ×0.810 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.51% | ÷1.628 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.28% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 226, 1B 90, 2B 119, 3B 114, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .288 → .240; ISO .074 → .055; BABIP .327 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 362 PAwOBA .380 → .311 (−69)K% 20.4% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.44% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 7.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.10% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 21.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 9.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.000 | ×1.015 | 2.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .380 → .311; ISO .184 → .152; BABIP .385 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).