Brad Boxberger projections, WAR, contract

Brad Boxberger P Chicago Cubs

Age 38 RHP 5'10" / 211 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.28

FIP4.42

K%22.8%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP47

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p290.336

SL+2.0

CH-1.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2012	24	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	24	0	28	120	33	17	3	0%	1.2	27.5%	14.2%	13.3%	2.4%	2.60	3.91	+0.2
2012	24	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	24	0	28	120	33	17	3	0%	1.2	27.5%	14.2%	13.3%	2.5%	2.60	3.97	+0.2
2013	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	18	0	22	94	24	13	3	0%	1.2	25.5%	13.8%	11.7%	3.1%	2.86	4.40	+0.0
2013	25	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	18	0	22	94	24	13	3	0%	1.2	25.5%	13.8%	11.7%	3.2%	2.86	4.46	+0.0
2014	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	63	0	65	247	104	20	9	0%	1.0	42.1%	8.1%	34.0%	3.7%	2.37	2.63	+1.5
2014	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	63	0	65	247	104	20	9	0%	1.0	42.1%	8.1%	34.0%	3.6%	2.37	2.62	+1.5
2015	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	69	0	63	271	74	27	9	0%	0.9	27.3%	10.0%	17.3%	3.4%	3.71	3.93	+0.5
2015	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	69	0	63	271	74	27	9	0%	0.9	27.3%	10.0%	17.3%	3.3%	3.71	3.89	+0.5
2016	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	5	34	157	35	22	5	13%	0.9	19.3%	15.8%	3.5%	2.7%	4.50	4.96	-0.2
2016	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	38	5	34	157	35	22	5	13%	0.9	22.3%	14.0%	8.3%	3.2%	4.50	4.89	-0.1
2017	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	4	37	159	53	15	5	11%	1.0	33.1%	6.6%	26.4%	3.4%	4.14	3.01	+0.7
2017	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	4	37	159	53	15	5	11%	1.0	33.3%	9.4%	23.9%	3.1%	4.14	3.21	+0.6
2018	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	60	0	53	235	71	28	9	0%	0.9	30.2%	11.9%	18.3%	4.1%	4.39	4.28	+0.2
2018	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	60	0	53	235	71	28	9	0%	0.9	30.2%	11.9%	18.3%	3.8%	4.39	4.21	+0.2
2019	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	41	188	46	24	5	0%	1.0	22.1%	13.9%	8.2%	2.7%	5.31	4.46	+0.0
2019	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	41	188	46	24	5	0%	1.0	24.5%	12.8%	11.7%	2.7%	5.31	4.21	+0.2
2020	32	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	23	0	18	79	18	8	3	0%	0.8	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	4.0%	3.00	4.65	-0.0
2020	32	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	23	0	18	79	18	8	3	0%	0.8	22.8%	10.1%	12.7%	3.8%	3.00	4.60	-0.0
2021	33	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	71	0	65	266	83	24	8	0%	0.9	31.2%	9.0%	22.2%	2.9%	3.34	3.18	+1.1
2021	33	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	71	0	65	266	83	24	8	0%	0.9	31.2%	9.0%	22.2%	3.0%	3.34	3.25	+1.0
2022	34	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	70	0	64	268	68	26	6	0%	0.9	25.4%	9.7%	15.7%	2.1%	2.95	3.36	+0.9
2022	34	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	70	0	64	268	68	26	6	0%	0.9	25.4%	9.7%	15.7%	2.2%	2.95	3.41	+0.9
2023	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	2	26	117	22	14	3	7%	0.9	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	3.7%	5.47	4.94	-0.1
2023	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	2	26	117	22	14	3	7%	0.9	20.2%	11.9%	8.3%	3.7%	5.47	4.94	-0.1
2023	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	2	26	117	22	14	3	7%	0.9	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	2.6%	5.47	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			506	0	478	2021	581	216	63	0%	0.9	28.7%	10.7%	18.1%	3.1%	3.50	3.74	+4.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	CHC	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	9.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.28	4.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	CHC	38	0	40	169	37	17	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	3.5%	4.62	4.85	-0.1
2027	39	MLB CTX	CHC	38	0	40	169	36	17	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.2%	11.4%	3.5%	4.62	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		544	0	518	2190	618	233	69	0%	1.0	28.2%	10.6%	17.5%	3.1%	3.59	3.79	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		210	0	200	846	239	90	27	0%	1.0	28.2%	10.6%	17.5%	3.1%	3.59	3.79	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		546	11	515	2201	623	238	69	2%	0.9	28.3%	10.8%	17.5%	3.2%	3.65	3.81	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		212	4	200	854	242	93	27	2%	0.9	28.3%	10.8%	17.5%	3.2%	3.65	3.81	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brad Boxberger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	22.8%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.85	21.6%	11.4%	40	+0.43	—	—	—
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	74
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	72
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	71
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	69
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	67
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	65
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	61
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	58
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	55
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	53
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	53
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	36
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	36
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	32

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	43	27.7%	11.3%	1.21	3.65
Tony Sipp ('19)	2.5	46	25.2%	10.5%	1.32	3.72
Troy Percival ('09)	3.5	55	26.8%	10.5%	1.08	3.17
Matt Barnes ('24)	2.3	52	29.0%	10.6%	1.02	4.21
Tyler Clippard ('22)	4.4	62	26.7%	9.6%	1.16	3.16
Armando Benítez ('08)	3.9	65	29.1%	12.4%	1.10	3.13
Jose Valverde ('14)	3.2	57	26.2%	10.0%	0.96	3.27