Danny Valencia

Pos3B

B/TR/R

Born1984-09-19

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2018

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2016	31	MLBOakland Athle…	517	.287/.348/.446	17	1	127	2.2
2017	32	MLBSEA	500	.256/.319/.411	15	2	106	0.2
2018	33	MLBBAL	282	.263/.321/.408	9	1	95	0.1
2019	34	No MLB games played
2020	35	No MLB games played
2021	36	No MLB games played
2022	37	No MLB games played
2023	38	No MLB games played
2024	39	No MLB games played
2025	40	No MLB games played
2026	41	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2016-2018

xwOBA68

Avg EV55

Barrel%41

Speed30

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	21	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	211	190	59	13	0	8	15	34	3	0	2	311	370	505	875	195	338	16	7	381	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	250	230	67	8	2	6	16	48	0	1	0	291	337	422	759	130	339	19	6	333	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A	Beloit Snappers	—	271	242	73	15	0	11	28	54	0	3	3	302	374	500	874	198	350	20	10	385	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	287	266	77	18	2	10	18	70	1	2	1	289	337	485	822	195	356	24	6	359	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	251	220	74	19	3	5	27	43	0	2	2	336	409	518	927	182	392	17	11	402	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	282	269	77	24	0	7	8	37	1	0	2	286	309	454	763	167	306	13	3	331	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	252	218	62	14	4	7	31	40	1	0	2	284	376	482	858	197	318	16	12	376	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	322	299	93	18	1	7	20	46	0	2	0	311	354	448	802	137	345	14	6	354	125	+10	+0	+4	+2	+7	2.4
2010	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	202	185	54	15	0	0	14	34	2	2	0	292	348	373	721	81	355	17	7	326	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	608	564	139	28	2	15	40	102	0	2	6	246	296	383	679	137	275	17	7	302	88	-8	-2	-8	+2	+13	-0.3
2012	27	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	161	154	29	6	1	3	3	38	0	0	1	188	204	299	503	110	222	24	2	216	29	-14	-0	-0	+2	+3	-0.9
2012	27	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	337	317	82	20	1	8	18	52	1	1	4	259	301	404	704	145	287	15	5	312	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	170	161	49	14	1	8	8	33	0	0	2	304	337	553	890	248	339	19	5	384	140	+8	-1	-0	+2	+4	1.3
2013	28	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	282	262	75	20	1	14	17	48	0	1	1	286	330	531	860	244	300	17	6	371	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	284	264	68	16	1	4	14	62	2	1	1	258	300	371	671	114	317	22	5	297	86	-5	-0	+4	+1	+6	0.7
2015	30	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	378	345	100	23	1	18	29	80	1	2	2	290	347	519	866	229	329	21	8	376	142	+19	-0	+3	+1	+8	3.2
2016	31	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	517	471	135	22	1	17	41	115	3	1	1	287	348	446	793	159	346	22	8	352	127	+17	-0	-8	+2	+11	2.2
2017	32	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	500	450	115	19	3	15	40	122	2	2	2	256	319	411	730	156	312	24	8	321	106	+3	-0	-3	-9	+11	0.2
2018	33	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	282	255	67	8	1	9	22	53	0	1	1	263	321	408	729	145	293	19	8	320	95	-2	-0	-4	+1	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3222	2963	795	154	12	96	217	651	8	11	16	268	320	426	746	157	311	20	7	328	108	+31	-4	-12	+4	+70	9.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	211	197	46	9	0	6	8	48	3	0	2	234	274	371	645	137	271	23	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	250	234	61	8	2	5	12	68	0	1	0	261	297	376	673	115	325	27	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	—	271	251	63	12	0	8	19	73	0	3	3	251	304	394	698	143	323	27	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	287	272	70	15	2	8	12	86	1	2	1	257	291	415	707	158	340	30	4	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	251	228	67	18	2	4	19	61	0	2	2	294	348	443	791	149	371	24	8	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	282	273	73	21	0	6	4	44	1	0	2	267	281	410	691	143	292	16	1	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	252	229	61	13	4	6	20	49	1	0	2	266	328	437	765	170	310	19	8	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	322	299	93	18	1	7	20	46	0	2	0	311	354	448	802	137	345	14	6	353	125	+10	+0	+4	+2	+7	2.4
2010	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	202	190	47	12	0	0	9	40	2	2	0	247	289	311	599	63	307	20	4	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	608	566	139	28	2	15	38	102	0	2	6	246	293	382	675	136	275	17	6	299	88	-8	-2	-8	+2	+13	-0.3
2012	27	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	161	154	28	5	1	3	3	38	0	0	1	182	197	286	483	104	222	24	2	212	29	-14	-0	-0	+2	+3	-0.9
2012	27	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	337	322	71	16	1	5	13	63	1	1	4	220	253	323	576	102	258	19	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	170	161	48	14	1	7	8	33	0	0	2	298	331	528	859	230	339	19	5	375	140	+8	-1	-0	+2	+4	1.3
2013	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	282	269	67	17	1	11	10	60	0	1	1	249	276	442	718	193	273	21	4	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	284	264	68	16	1	4	14	62	2	1	1	258	300	371	671	114	317	22	5	296	86	-5	-0	+4	+1	+6	0.7
2015	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	378	348	101	22	1	20	26	80	1	2	2	290	341	532	873	241	329	21	7	378	142	+19	-0	+3	+1	+8	3.2
2016	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	517	472	136	21	1	19	40	115	3	1	1	288	348	458	805	169	346	22	8	357	127	+17	-0	-8	+2	+11	2.2
2017	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	500	450	115	19	3	15	40	122	2	2	2	256	319	411	730	156	312	24	8	324	106	+3	-0	-3	-9	+11	0.2
2018	33	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	282	257	66	8	1	8	20	53	0	1	1	257	310	389	700	132	293	19	7	308	95	-2	-0	-4	+1	+6	0.1
2006	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	211	197	46	9	0	6	8	48	3	0	2	234	274	371	645	137	274	23	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	211	190	59	13	0	8	15	34	3	0	2	311	370	505	875	195	338	16	7	381	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	521	485	124	20	2	13	31	142	0	4	3	256	300	386	686	130	332	27	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	521	472	140	23	2	17	44	102	0	4	3	297	357	462	818	165	345	20	8	360	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	538	500	137	33	4	12	31	147	1	4	3	274	318	428	746	154	360	27	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	538	486	151	37	5	15	45	113	1	4	3	311	370	500	870	189	374	21	8	379	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	534	502	134	34	4	12	24	93	2	0	4	267	303	422	725	155	303	17	4	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	534	487	139	38	4	14	39	77	2	0	4	285	341	466	807	181	311	14	7	352	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	524	489	140	30	1	7	29	86	2	4	0	286	329	395	724	108	333	16	6	319	102	+1	+1	+4	+2	+11	2.0
2010	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	524	484	147	33	1	7	34	80	2	4	0	304	352	419	771	116	349	15	6	343	102	+1	+1	+4	+2	+11	2.0
2011	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	608	566	139	28	2	15	38	102	0	2	6	246	293	382	675	136	274	17	6	299	88	-8	-2	-8	+2	+13	-0.3
2011	26	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	608	564	139	28	2	15	40	102	0	2	6	246	296	383	679	137	275	17	7	302	88	-8	-2	-8	+2	+13	-0.3
2012	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	498	476	99	21	2	8	16	101	1	1	5	208	235	311	546	103	245	20	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	498	471	111	26	2	11	21	90	1	1	5	236	270	369	639	134	267	18	4	281	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	452	430	115	31	2	19	18	93	0	1	3	267	297	481	778	214	298	21	4	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	452	423	124	34	2	22	25	81	0	1	3	293	333	539	872	246	315	18	6	376	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	284	264	68	16	1	4	14	62	2	1	1	258	300	371	671	114	317	22	5	296	86	-5	-0	+4	+1	+6	0.7
2014	29	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	284	264	68	16	1	4	14	62	2	1	1	258	300	371	671	114	317	22	5	297	86	-5	-0	+4	+1	+6	0.7
2015	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	378	348	101	22	1	20	26	80	1	2	2	290	341	532	873	241	324	21	7	378	142	+19	-0	+3	+1	+8	3.2
2015	30	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	378	345	100	23	1	18	29	80	1	2	2	290	347	519	866	229	329	21	8	376	142	+19	-0	+3	+1	+8	3.2
2016	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	517	472	136	21	1	19	40	115	3	1	1	288	348	458	805	169	344	22	8	357	127	+17	-0	-8	+2	+11	2.2
2016	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	517	471	135	22	1	17	41	115	3	1	1	287	348	446	793	159	346	22	8	352	127	+17	-0	-8	+2	+11	2.2
2017	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	500	450	115	19	3	15	40	122	2	2	2	256	319	411	730	156	312	24	8	324	106	+3	-0	-3	-9	+11	0.2
2017	32	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	500	450	115	19	3	15	40	122	2	2	2	256	319	411	730	156	312	24	8	321	106	+3	-0	-3	-9	+11	0.2
2018	33	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	282	257	66	8	1	8	20	53	0	1	1	257	310	389	700	132	289	19	7	308	95	-2	-0	-4	+1	+6	0.1
2018	33	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	282	255	67	8	1	9	22	53	0	1	1	263	321	408	729	145	293	19	8	320	95	-2	-0	-4	+1	+6	0.1
2006	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	211	198	46	9	0	6	8	48	3	0	2	232	274	369	643	136	271	23	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	521	485	124	20	2	13	31	142	0	4	3	256	300	386	686	130	324	27	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	538	501	137	33	4	12	31	147	1	4	3	273	318	427	745	154	354	27	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	534	503	134	34	4	12	24	93	2	0	4	266	303	421	725	155	300	17	4	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	524	488	140	30	1	7	29	86	2	4	0	287	329	395	724	109	331	16	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	608	565	139	28	2	15	38	102	0	2	6	246	293	382	675	136	275	17	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	498	478	99	21	2	8	16	101	1	1	5	207	235	310	545	103	246	20	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	452	431	115	31	2	19	18	93	0	1	3	267	297	480	777	213	298	21	4	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	284	266	68	16	1	4	14	62	2	1	1	256	300	368	668	113	317	22	5	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	378	348	101	22	1	20	26	80	1	2	2	290	341	532	873	241	329	21	7	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	517	469	136	21	1	19	40	115	3	1	1	290	348	461	808	171	346	22	8	357	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	500	454	115	19	3	15	40	122	2	2	2	253	319	407	727	154	312	24	8	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	282	260	66	8	1	8	20	53	0	1	1	254	310	385	695	131	293	19	7	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3222	2963	795	154	12	96	217	651	8	11	16	268	320	426	746	157	311	20	7	328	98	+31	-4	-12	+4	+70	9.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	160	31	2	19	44	131	2	2	3	268	320	421	742	154	310	20	7	328	98	+6	-1	-2	+1	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5847	5436	1420	292	24	158	335	1244	17	23	33	261	306	411	717	150	308	21	6	314	98	+31	-4	-12	+4	+70	9.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	604	158	32	3	18	37	138	2	3	4	262	306	414	720	152	308	21	6	314	98	+6	-1	-2	+1	+14	1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2013 AAANorfolk Tides · 282 PAwOBA .361 → .309 (−52)K% 17.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.02%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	21.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.32%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×0.982	3.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.69%	÷0.970	×0.930	×1.005	×0.982	17.69%
Doubles /BIP	9.35%	÷0.956	×0.830	×1.005	×0.982	8.01%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.005	×0.982	0.50%
Home runs /BIP	6.54%	÷1.006	×0.840	—	×0.982	5.36%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .361 → .309; ISO .244 → .203; BABIP .300 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 337 PAwOBA .304 → .250 (−54)K% 15.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.43%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	18.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.34%	÷0.974	×0.690	—	×0.992	3.76%
HBP% /PA	0.30%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.28%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.975	×0.930	×1.002	×0.992	18.94%
Doubles /BIP	7.55%	÷1.031	×0.830	×1.002	×0.992	6.04%
Triples /BIP	0.38%	÷0.982	×0.970	×1.002	×0.992	0.37%
Home runs /BIP	3.02%	÷1.280	×0.840	—	×0.992	1.97%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 95, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .304 → .250; ISO .145 → .104; BABIP .287 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAARochester Red Wings · 202 PAwOBA .319 → .265 (−54)K% 16.8% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.83%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	19.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.93%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.62%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.95%
Singles /BIP	25.83%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	22.98%
Doubles /BIP	9.93%	÷1.009	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	7.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.903	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.944	×0.840	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 81, K 105, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .319 → .265; ISO .081 → .064; BABIP .355 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAARochester Red Wings · 282 PAwOBA .323 → .300 (−23)K% 13.1% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.12%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	15.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.13%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	1.52%
HBP% /PA	0.35%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.34%
Singles /BIP	19.83%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.036	×1.033	19.74%
Doubles /BIP	10.34%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.036	×1.033	9.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.036	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.02%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.033	2.62%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .323 → .300; ISO .167 → .147; BABIP .306 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 252 PAwOBA .367 → .330 (−37)K% 15.9% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.87%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	19.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.51%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.998	8.04%
HBP% /PA	0.40%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.34%
Singles /BIP	20.79%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.047	×0.998	21.06%
Doubles /BIP	7.87%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.047	×0.998	7.06%
Triples /BIP	2.25%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.047	×0.998	2.23%
Home runs /BIP	3.93%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.998	3.06%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.

Result: wOBA .367 → .330; ISO .197 → .173; BABIP .318 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 287 PAwOBA .350 → .302 (−48)K% 24.4% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.39%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	29.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.92%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.012	4.20%
HBP% /PA	0.35%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.30%
Singles /BIP	23.98%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.014	×1.012	23.88%
Doubles /BIP	9.18%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.014	×1.012	8.11%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.014	×1.012	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.10%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.012	4.03%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .350 → .302; ISO .195 → .157; BABIP .356 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 251 PAwOBA .396 → .348 (−48)K% 17.1% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.13%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	24.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.96%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×0.988	7.38%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.55%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.038	×0.988	25.05%
Doubles /BIP	10.73%	÷1.000	×0.960	×1.038	×0.988	10.57%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.038	×0.988	1.41%
Home runs /BIP	2.82%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.988	2.46%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.

Result: wOBA .396 → .348; ISO .182 → .162; BABIP .392 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 ABeloit Snappers · 271 PAwOBA .374 → .305 (−69)K% 19.9% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.93%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	27.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.33%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	7.06%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.049	×0.990	23.90%
Doubles /BIP	7.98%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.049	×0.990	6.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.049	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.85%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	4.63%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.

Result: wOBA .374 → .305; ISO .198 → .153; BABIP .350 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).