Zach McAllister prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Zach McAllister P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 38 RHP 6'6" / 240 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.28

FIP4.26

K%24.1%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p2621.9%

p3319.7%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

CT-1.1

FB-3.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2011	23	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	4	4	18	84	14	6	1	100%	4.4	16.7%	7.1%	9.5%	1.2%	6.11	3.25	+0.4
2011	23	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	4	4	18	84	14	6	1	100%	4.4	16.7%	7.1%	9.5%	1.2%	6.11	3.27	+0.4
2012	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	22	22	125	543	110	38	19	100%	5.7	20.3%	7.0%	13.3%	3.5%	4.24	4.20	+1.0
2012	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	22	22	125	543	110	38	19	100%	5.7	20.3%	7.0%	13.3%	3.5%	4.24	4.22	+1.0
2013	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	24	24	134	579	101	47	13	100%	5.6	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	2.3%	3.75	3.89	+1.6
2013	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	24	24	134	579	101	47	13	100%	5.6	17.4%	8.1%	9.3%	2.2%	3.75	3.90	+1.6
2014	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	22	15	86	377	74	27	7	68%	3.9	19.6%	7.2%	12.5%	1.9%	5.23	3.37	+1.6
2014	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	22	15	86	377	74	27	7	68%	3.9	19.6%	7.2%	12.5%	1.9%	5.23	3.38	+1.6
2015	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	61	1	69	299	84	19	7	2%	1.1	28.1%	6.4%	21.7%	2.3%	3.00	2.82	+1.4
2015	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	61	1	69	299	84	19	7	2%	1.1	28.1%	6.4%	21.7%	2.3%	3.00	2.81	+1.4
2016	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	2	56	249	57	21	6	4%	1.0	23.2%	9.0%	14.2%	2.6%	3.36	3.70	+0.6
2016	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	2	56	249	57	21	6	4%	1.0	22.9%	8.4%	14.5%	2.4%	3.36	3.58	+0.6
2017	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	50	0	62	249	66	21	8	0%	1.2	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.2%	2.61	3.70	+0.6
2017	29	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	50	0	62	249	66	21	8	0%	1.2	26.5%	8.4%	18.1%	3.2%	2.61	3.66	+0.7
2018	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	51	226	48	11	8	0%	1.0	19.6%	4.5%	15.1%	4.2%	6.53	4.32	+0.1
2018	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	51	226	48	11	8	0%	1.0	21.2%	4.9%	16.4%	3.5%	6.53	3.90	+0.4
2019	31	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	9	0	12	60	19	3	5	0%	1.4	27.9%	5.3%	22.6%	8.5%	8.03	6.10	—
2019	31	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	9	0	12	60	19	3	5	0%	1.4	31.7%	5.0%	26.7%	8.3%	8.03	6.02	—
2021	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	2	11	54	10	5	2	18%	1.0	18.5%	9.3%	9.3%	3.7%	4.22	4.74	—
2021	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	2	11	54	10	5	2	18%	1.0	18.5%	9.3%	9.3%	3.7%	4.22	5.07	—
2022	34	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	56	0	68	300	90	27	7	0%	1.2	26.4%	9.4%	17.0%	2.4%	3.99	3.41	—
2022	34	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	56	0	68	300	90	27	7	0%	1.2	30.0%	9.0%	21.0%	2.3%	3.99	2.98	—
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	3	60	267	79	26	8	5%	1.1	26.7%	9.1%	17.7%	2.7%	4.48	3.49	+0.8
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	3	60	267	79	26	8	5%	1.1	26.7%	9.1%	17.7%	2.7%	4.48	3.49	+0.8
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	3	60	267	79	26	8	5%	1.1	29.6%	9.7%	19.9%	3.0%	4.48	3.50	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			287	68	597	2592	547	190	71	24%	2.1	21.1%	7.3%	13.8%	2.7%	4.15	3.77	+5.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.1%	9.2%	14.9%	3.0%	4.28	4.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	NYY	47	0	50	209	48	21	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.9%	13.1%	3.5%	4.53	4.69	-0.1
2028	40	MLB MLE	NYY	41	0	43	180	39	19	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.6%	11.2%	3.9%	4.89	5.12	-0.3
2027	39	MLB CTX	NYY	48	0	50	211	48	21	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.9%	13.1%	3.5%	4.53	4.69	-0.1
2028	40	MLB CTX	NYY	41	0	43	182	40	19	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.6%	11.2%	3.9%	4.89	5.12	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		375	68	689	2982	634	230	85	18%	1.8	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	2.9%	4.22	3.85	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		109	20	200	865	184	67	25	18%	1.8	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	2.9%	4.22	3.85	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		420	73	753	3287	728	251	93	17%	1.8	22.2%	7.6%	14.5%	2.8%	4.21	3.75	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	19	200	873	194	67	25	17%	1.8	22.2%	7.6%	14.5%	2.8%	4.21	3.75	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach McAllister (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	24.1%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.89	22.4%	12.2%	92	+0.63	—	—	—
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	65
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	63
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	62
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	61
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	59
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	57
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	54
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	51
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	51
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	47
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	46
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	44
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	43
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	33

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	75	21.5%	8.2%	1.11	4.22
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29
Juan Nicasio ('20)	3.6	80	21.3%	8.3%	1.04	4.71
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10
Daniel Hudson ('24)	4.3	71	22.8%	7.7%	1.01	3.74
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09
Wade Davis ('21)	5.0	83	22.1%	9.3%	0.95	3.94