Scott Sizemore
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 29 | AAAScranton/Wilk… | 319 | .266/.331/.433 | 7 | 0 | 68 | — | .221/.268/.352 | |
| 2014 | 29 | MLBNYY | 16 | .312/.312/.438 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 0.3 | ||
| 2015 | 30 | AAASyracuse Chie… | 289 | .262/.375/.354 | 3 | 2 | 78 | — | .235/.322/.303 | |
| 2016 | 31 | AAASyracuse Chie… | 243 | .205/.354/.323 | 5 | 2 | 48 | — | .165/.262/.255 | |
| 2017 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2018 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 40 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 41 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 22 | A | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 530 | 438 | 116 | 33 | 5 | 4 | 73 | 60 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 265 | 381 | 390 | 771 | 126 | 295 | 11 | 14 | 346 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 234 | 203 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 44 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 286 | 370 | 409 | 778 | 123 | 342 | 19 | 10 | 346 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 330 | 292 | 90 | 22 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 49 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 308 | 378 | 473 | 851 | 164 | 349 | 15 | 9 | 373 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 269 | 228 | 70 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 35 | 46 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 307 | 404 | 535 | 939 | 228 | 351 | 17 | 13 | 406 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | — | 163 | 143 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 297 | 336 | 633 | 112 | 287 | 25 | 9 | 280 | 79 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 342 | 299 | 89 | 23 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 77 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 298 | 381 | 472 | 852 | 174 | 372 | 23 | 9 | 377 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | — | 429 | 368 | 90 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 53 | 112 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 245 | 343 | 399 | 742 | 155 | 321 | 26 | 12 | 331 | 113 | +6 | -0 | -2 | +2 | +9 | 1.6 |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 135 | 106 | 39 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 368 | 492 | 557 | 1.049 | 189 | 439 | 17 | 18 | 453 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | — | 16 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 312 | 438 | 750 | 125 | 625 | 50 | 0 | 330 | 111 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +0 | 0.3 |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 319 | 289 | 77 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 87 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 331 | 433 | 764 | 166 | 355 | 27 | 8 | 337 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 289 | 240 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 375 | 354 | 729 | 92 | 308 | 16 | 14 | 331 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 243 | 195 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 52 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 205 | 354 | 323 | 677 | 118 | 252 | 21 | 17 | 315 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 608 | 527 | 127 | 31 | 1 | 14 | 68 | 160 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 241 | 330 | 383 | 713 | 142 | 318 | 26 | 11 | 317 | 101 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +5 | +13 | 1.4 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 22 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 530 | 461 | 103 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 50 | 82 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 223 | 312 | 323 | 635 | 100 | 252 | 15 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 234 | 210 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 238 | 304 | 338 | 642 | 100 | 304 | 26 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 330 | 300 | 85 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 59 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 283 | 338 | 423 | 762 | 140 | 329 | 18 | 6 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 269 | 238 | 66 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 56 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 277 | 351 | 462 | 813 | 185 | 325 | 21 | 9 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | MLB MLE | Detroit Tigers | — | 163 | 143 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 297 | 336 | 633 | 112 | 287 | 25 | 9 | 284 | 79 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 342 | 306 | 78 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 91 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 255 | 327 | 405 | 733 | 150 | 330 | 27 | 7 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | MLB MLE | Oakland Athletics | — | 429 | 368 | 90 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 112 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 245 | 343 | 405 | 748 | 160 | 321 | 26 | 12 | 335 | 113 | +6 | -0 | -2 | +2 | +9 | 1.6 |
| 2011 | 26 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 135 | 112 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 29 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 330 | 432 | 500 | 932 | 170 | 396 | 21 | 13 | 394 | 153 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | MLB MLE | New York Yankees | — | 16 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 312 | 438 | 750 | 125 | 625 | 50 | 0 | 332 | 111 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | +0 | 0.3 |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 319 | 298 | 66 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 108 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 268 | 352 | 620 | 131 | 318 | 34 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 289 | 251 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 322 | 303 | 624 | 68 | 278 | 18 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 243 | 212 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 263 | 255 | 517 | 90 | 212 | 27 | 10 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 530 | 461 | 103 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 50 | 82 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 223 | 312 | 323 | 635 | 100 | 262 | 15 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 530 | 438 | 116 | 33 | 5 | 4 | 73 | 60 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 265 | 381 | 390 | 771 | 126 | 295 | 11 | 14 | 346 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 234 | 210 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 238 | 304 | 338 | 642 | 100 | 318 | 26 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ RAW | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 234 | 203 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 44 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 286 | 370 | 409 | 778 | 123 | 342 | 19 | 10 | 346 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 599 | 538 | 151 | 34 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 115 | 6 | 21 | 4 | 281 | 344 | 441 | 785 | 160 | 334 | 19 | 8 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 599 | 520 | 160 | 39 | 5 | 17 | 64 | 95 | 6 | 21 | 4 | 308 | 390 | 500 | 890 | 192 | 350 | 16 | 11 | 388 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 449 | 110 | 27 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 131 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 245 | 318 | 383 | 701 | 138 | 319 | 26 | 8 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 505 | 442 | 121 | 30 | 1 | 12 | 46 | 117 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 274 | 354 | 428 | 782 | 154 | 345 | 23 | 9 | 345 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 480 | 128 | 30 | 2 | 15 | 71 | 141 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 267 | 366 | 431 | 797 | 165 | 346 | 25 | 13 | 349 | 122 | +15 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 2.7 |
| 2011 | 26 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 564 | 474 | 129 | 31 | 2 | 14 | 77 | 135 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 272 | 378 | 435 | 813 | 162 | 351 | 24 | 14 | 360 | 122 | +15 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +12 | 2.7 |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 314 | 71 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 116 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 270 | 357 | 627 | 131 | 338 | 35 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 335 | 305 | 82 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 95 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 269 | 330 | 433 | 763 | 164 | 366 | 28 | 8 | 337 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 289 | 251 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 322 | 303 | 624 | 68 | 285 | 18 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 289 | 240 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 46 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 375 | 354 | 729 | 92 | 308 | 16 | 14 | 331 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 243 | 212 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 263 | 255 | 517 | 90 | 217 | 27 | 10 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA RAW | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 243 | 195 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 52 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 205 | 354 | 323 | 677 | 118 | 252 | 21 | 17 | 315 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 530 | 466 | 103 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 50 | 82 | 9 | 16 | 10 | 221 | 312 | 320 | 631 | 99 | 252 | 15 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 234 | 212 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 236 | 304 | 335 | 639 | 99 | 304 | 26 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 599 | 542 | 151 | 34 | 5 | 14 | 46 | 115 | 6 | 21 | 4 | 279 | 344 | 437 | 781 | 159 | 327 | 19 | 8 | 336 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 505 | 452 | 110 | 27 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 131 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 243 | 318 | 381 | 698 | 137 | 316 | 26 | 8 | 308 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 564 | 484 | 128 | 30 | 2 | 15 | 71 | 141 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 264 | 366 | 428 | 793 | 163 | 339 | 25 | 13 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 335 | 313 | 71 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 116 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 270 | 358 | 628 | 131 | 333 | 35 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 289 | 255 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 53 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 231 | 322 | 298 | 620 | 67 | 278 | 18 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 31 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 243 | 213 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 164 | 263 | 254 | 516 | 89 | 212 | 27 | 10 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 608 | 527 | 127 | 31 | 1 | 14 | 68 | 160 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 241 | 330 | 383 | 713 | 142 | 318 | 26 | 11 | 317 | 91 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +5 | +13 | 1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 563 | 136 | 33 | 1 | 15 | 73 | 171 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 242 | 331 | 384 | 714 | 142 | 319 | 26 | 11 | 317 | 91 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +5 | +14 | 1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3299 | 2915 | 707 | 160 | 20 | 57 | 294 | 766 | 39 | 67 | 24 | 243 | 320 | 370 | 690 | 127 | 307 | 23 | 9 | 303 | 91 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +5 | +13 | 1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 140 | 32 | 4 | 11 | 58 | 151 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 244 | 322 | 371 | 693 | 127 | 309 | 23 | 9 | 303 | 91 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +5 | +14 | 1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 243 PAwOBA .309 → .239 (−71)K% 21.4% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.40% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.28% | ÷1.110 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 10.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.23% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.88% | ÷1.048 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×0.962 | 16.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×0.962 | 4.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.50% | ÷0.978 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.962 | 2.89% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .309 → .239; ISO .118 → .102; BABIP .252 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 289 PAwOBA .327 → .283 (−45)K% 15.9% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.92% | ÷1.043 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.84% | ÷0.938 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 9.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.74% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×1.042 | ×0.972 | 23.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.67% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×1.042 | ×0.972 | 4.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.947 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | ×0.972 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.183 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 1.07% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 102, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 109, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .327 → .283; ISO .092 → .074; BABIP .308 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 319 PAwOBA .329 → .268 (−61)K% 27.3% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.970 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.84% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.76% | ÷0.984 | ×0.930 | ×0.984 | ×0.982 | 21.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.42% | ÷0.936 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×0.982 | 7.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.48% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | ×0.984 | ×0.982 | 2.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.47% | ÷1.067 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 2.68% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 91, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .329 → .268; ISO .166 → .134; BABIP .355 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAASacramento River Cats · 135 PAwOBA .449 → .394 (−55)K% 17.0% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.04% | ÷1.021 | ×1.290 | — | — | 21.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.78% | ÷0.991 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 12.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.48% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.33% | ÷0.995 | ×0.900 | ×0.994 | ×1.018 | 28.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.84% | ÷0.916 | ×0.810 | ×0.994 | ×1.018 | 9.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.048 | ×0.810 | ×0.994 | ×1.018 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷0.936 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 3.07% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 99, 2B 83, 3B 110, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .449 → .394; ISO .189 → .170; BABIP .439 → .396. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 342 PAwOBA .369 → .319 (−50)K% 22.5% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.51% | ÷1.015 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.06% | ÷0.922 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.63% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.23% | ÷1.059 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 22.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.36% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 9.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.015 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.033 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.05% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 3.68% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 112, 2B 90, 3B 103, K 103, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .369 → .319; ISO .174 → .154; BABIP .372 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 330 PAwOBA .363 → .329 (−34)K% 14.8% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.85% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 23.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 7.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.048 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 2.90% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .363 → .329; ISO .164 → .147; BABIP .349 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAErie SeaWolves · 269 PAwOBA .397 → .345 (−51)K% 17.1% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.10% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 21.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 8.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×1.012 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.90% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .397 → .345; ISO .228 → .195; BABIP .351 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 234 PAwOBA .340 → .283 (−57)K% 18.8% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 7.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×0.998 | 23.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.960 | ×0.967 | ×0.998 | 6.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.967 | ×0.998 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.21% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .340 → .283; ISO .123 → .105; BABIP .342 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).