Ryan Kalish
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | INTLCriollos de C… | 78 | .145/.234/.159 | 0 | 2 | 16 | — | |
| 2016 | 28 | AAACHC | 70 | .368/.478/.509 | 0 | 3 | 137 | — | .333/.420/.467 |
| 2017 | 29 | INTLGigantes de C… | 78 | .116/.197/.130 | 0 | 0 | -5 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 18 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 333 | 550 | 883 | 250 | 294 | 10 | 5 | 384 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | A+ | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 82 | 73 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 309 | 397 | 706 | 164 | 306 | 28 | 10 | 312 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 420 | 360 | 101 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 53 | 76 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 281 | 379 | 356 | 734 | 75 | 345 | 18 | 13 | 337 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 437 | 391 | 106 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 42 | 87 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 271 | 343 | 440 | 783 | 169 | 316 | 20 | 10 | 346 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 143 | 115 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 304 | 437 | 513 | 950 | 209 | 330 | 14 | 18 | 418 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 179 | 163 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 38 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 252 | 307 | 405 | 712 | 153 | 303 | 21 | 7 | 312 | 91 | -2 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2010 | 22 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 160 | 143 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 32 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 294 | 361 | 476 | 836 | 182 | 343 | 20 | 9 | 366 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 183 | 150 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 293 | 411 | 527 | 938 | 233 | 290 | 11 | 15 | 406 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 96 | 86 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 209 | 277 | 279 | 556 | 70 | 265 | 21 | 8 | 252 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 103 | 96 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 229 | 275 | 260 | 535 | 31 | 310 | 25 | 6 | 245 | 47 | -6 | -0 | -6 | +1 | +2 | -1.0 |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 126 | 111 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 261 | 339 | 414 | 753 | 153 | 321 | 24 | 10 | 333 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | — | 130 | 121 | 30 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 248 | 295 | 347 | 642 | 99 | 323 | 22 | 6 | 285 | 70 | -5 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +3 | -1.1 |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 319 | 287 | 72 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 74 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 251 | 322 | 404 | 726 | 153 | 312 | 23 | 9 | 323 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 78 | 69 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 145 | 234 | 159 | 393 | 14 | 185 | 19 | 10 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 70 | 57 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 368 | 478 | 509 | 987 | 140 | 429 | 13 | 14 | 434 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 78 | 69 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 197 | 130 | 328 | 14 | 174 | 29 | 9 | 160 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 412 | 380 | 93 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 92 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 245 | 295 | 350 | 645 | 105 | 311 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 80 | -10 | +1 | -11 | -2 | +9 | -1.3 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 400 | 638 | 200 | 232 | 14 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lancaster JetHawks | — | 82 | 75 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 259 | 347 | 606 | 147 | 292 | 38 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 420 | 378 | 96 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 102 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 254 | 324 | 312 | 636 | 58 | 337 | 24 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 437 | 402 | 100 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 106 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 249 | 304 | 386 | 690 | 137 | 308 | 24 | 7 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 143 | 125 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 28 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 288 | 373 | 480 | 853 | 192 | 323 | 20 | 11 | 361 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 179 | 163 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 38 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 245 | 301 | 393 | 694 | 147 | 303 | 21 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -2 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2010 | 22 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 160 | 147 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 279 | 329 | 449 | 778 | 170 | 336 | 24 | 6 | 334 | 112 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 183 | 159 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 270 | 356 | 447 | 802 | 176 | 278 | 14 | 10 | 355 | 126 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 96 | 88 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 193 | 245 | 250 | 495 | 57 | 249 | 26 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 103 | 96 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 229 | 275 | 260 | 535 | 31 | 310 | 25 | 6 | 238 | 47 | -6 | -0 | -6 | +1 | +2 | -1.0 |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 126 | 114 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 37 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 237 | 298 | 351 | 649 | 114 | 315 | 29 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | MLB MLE | Chicago Cubs | — | 130 | 122 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 238 | 279 | 320 | 599 | 82 | 323 | 22 | 5 | 271 | 70 | -5 | -0 | -4 | -5 | +3 | -1.1 |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 319 | 299 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 96 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 204 | 249 | 321 | 570 | 117 | 272 | 30 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 70 | 60 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 333 | 420 | 467 | 887 | 133 | 377 | 16 | 10 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 400 | 638 | 200 | 188 | 14 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 333 | 550 | 883 | 250 | 294 | 10 | 5 | 384 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 453 | 111 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 132 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 245 | 313 | 318 | 631 | 73 | 333 | 26 | 8 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 502 | 433 | 118 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 61 | 99 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 273 | 367 | 363 | 730 | 90 | 339 | 20 | 12 | 333 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 580 | 527 | 135 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 47 | 135 | 2 | 21 | 6 | 256 | 319 | 404 | 724 | 148 | 315 | 23 | 8 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 580 | 506 | 141 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 68 | 107 | 2 | 21 | 6 | 279 | 366 | 457 | 823 | 178 | 319 | 18 | 12 | 364 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 522 | 469 | 124 | 26 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 102 | 4 | 35 | 4 | 264 | 329 | 429 | 757 | 164 | 304 | 20 | 8 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 522 | 456 | 127 | 29 | 3 | 17 | 54 | 91 | 4 | 35 | 4 | 279 | 360 | 467 | 827 | 189 | 311 | 17 | 10 | 361 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 96 | 88 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 193 | 245 | 250 | 495 | 57 | 262 | 26 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 96 | 86 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 209 | 277 | 279 | 556 | 70 | 265 | 21 | 8 | 252 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 229 | 210 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 233 | 288 | 310 | 597 | 76 | 315 | 28 | 7 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 229 | 207 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 56 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 246 | 310 | 343 | 653 | 97 | 315 | 24 | 8 | 293 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 449 | 421 | 91 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 124 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 216 | 260 | 328 | 588 | 112 | 290 | 28 | 5 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 449 | 408 | 102 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 102 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 250 | 314 | 387 | 701 | 137 | 315 | 23 | 8 | 312 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | INTL MLE | Criollos de Caguas | — | 78 | 69 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 145 | 234 | 159 | 393 | 14 | 185 | 19 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | INTL RAW | Criollos de Caguas | — | 78 | 69 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 145 | 234 | 159 | 393 | 14 | 185 | 19 | 10 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 70 | 60 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 333 | 420 | 467 | 887 | 133 | 400 | 16 | 10 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 70 | 57 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 368 | 478 | 509 | 987 | 140 | 429 | 13 | 14 | 434 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | INTL MLE | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 78 | 69 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 197 | 130 | 328 | 14 | 174 | 29 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | INTL RAW | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 78 | 69 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 197 | 130 | 328 | 14 | 174 | 29 | 9 | 160 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 21 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 238 | 400 | 638 | 200 | 232 | 14 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 502 | 452 | 111 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 132 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 246 | 313 | 319 | 632 | 73 | 330 | 26 | 8 | 284 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 580 | 526 | 135 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 47 | 135 | 2 | 21 | 6 | 257 | 319 | 405 | 724 | 148 | 312 | 23 | 8 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 522 | 472 | 124 | 26 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 102 | 4 | 35 | 4 | 263 | 329 | 426 | 755 | 163 | 304 | 20 | 8 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 96 | 90 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 189 | 245 | 244 | 489 | 56 | 249 | 26 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 229 | 211 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 232 | 288 | 308 | 596 | 76 | 313 | 28 | 7 | 262 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 449 | 421 | 91 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 124 | 2 | 15 | 6 | 216 | 260 | 328 | 588 | 112 | 287 | 28 | 5 | 253 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 70 | 61 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 328 | 420 | 459 | 879 | 131 | 377 | 16 | 10 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 412 | 380 | 93 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 92 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 245 | 295 | 350 | 645 | 105 | 311 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 73 | -10 | +1 | -11 | -2 | +9 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 600 | 146 | 28 | 8 | 6 | 41 | 145 | 2 | 25 | 8 | 243 | 294 | 347 | 641 | 103 | 310 | 22 | 6 | 287 | 73 | -15 | +2 | -17 | -3 | +14 | -2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2625 | 2386 | 569 | 99 | 18 | 45 | 197 | 633 | 14 | 109 | 28 | 238 | 300 | 352 | 652 | 113 | 303 | 24 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -10 | +1 | -11 | -2 | +9 | -1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 141 | 25 | 4 | 11 | 49 | 157 | 3 | 27 | 7 | 239 | 300 | 350 | 650 | 112 | 304 | 24 | 8 | 276 | 73 | -15 | +2 | -17 | -3 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAAIowa Cubs · 70 PAwOBA .430 → .371 (−59)K% 12.9% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.86% | ÷1.037 | ×1.290 | — | — | 15.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.034 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 9.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 2.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷1.006 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.992 | 27.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.927 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.992 | 7.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.945 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.992 | 3.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.890 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 89, K 107, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .430 → .371; ISO .140 → .126; BABIP .429 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAIowa Cubs · 319 PAwOBA .313 → .246 (−67)K% 23.2% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.20% | ÷0.996 | ×1.290 | — | — | 30.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.46% | ÷1.249 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 4.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.07% | ÷1.021 | ×0.900 | ×1.025 | ×1.018 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.57% | ÷1.111 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×1.018 | 5.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×1.018 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.76% | ÷0.929 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 3.21% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 104, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 99, BB 150 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .313 → .246; ISO .153 → .120; BABIP .312 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 126 PAwOBA .326 → .282 (−44)K% 23.8% → 29.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.32% | ÷0.974 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.69% | ÷0.975 | ×0.930 | ×1.032 | ×1.048 | 25.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.17% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×1.048 | 5.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×1.032 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.94% | ÷1.280 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 3.40% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 95, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 97, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .326 → .282; ISO .153 → .112; BABIP .321 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 96 PAwOBA .251 → .220 (−30)K% 20.8% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.83% | ÷0.971 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 17.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.007 | ×0.830 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 8.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.017 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.955 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 105, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .251 → .220; ISO .070 → .061; BABIP .265 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 183 PAwOBA .399 → .355 (−45)K% 11.5% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.48% | ÷1.001 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.21% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 10.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.16% | ÷0.989 | ×0.970 | ×1.007 | ×1.042 | 20.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.093 | ×0.860 | ×1.007 | ×1.042 | 5.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.007 | ×1.042 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.20% | ÷1.095 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 4.60% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .399 → .355; ISO .233 → .191; BABIP .290 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 160 PAwOBA .360 → .334 (−26)K% 20.0% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.75% | ÷1.037 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.046 | ×1.050 | 24.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | ×1.046 | ×1.050 | 7.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.046 | ×1.050 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.50% | ÷0.898 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 4.42% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .360 → .334; ISO .182 → .175; BABIP .343 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 437 PAwOBA .339 → .301 (−38)K% 19.9% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 7.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.988 | ×1.050 | 23.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.988 | ×1.050 | 5.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | ×1.050 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 3.50% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .339 → .301; ISO .169 → .143; BABIP .316 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 A+Salem Red Sox · 143 PAwOBA .408 → .361 (−48)K% 14.0% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.99% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 19.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 11.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 24.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 4.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 4.86% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .408 → .361; ISO .209 → .195; BABIP .330 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .