Allen Craig

Pos1B

B/TR/R

Born1984-07-18

Age (2027)43

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2018

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2016	32	AAAPawtucket Red…	84	.173/.253/.280	1	27	—	.169/.229/.273
2017	33	AAAPawtucket Red…	182	.253/.352/.316	1	57	—	.218/.291/.273
2018	34	AAASD	363	.293/.378/.479	13	68	—	.211/.275/.335

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2007	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	25	24	7	2	0	3	1	6	0	0	0	292	320	750	1.070	458	267	24	4	453	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	468	423	132	25	2	21	35	79	6	8	3	312	373	530	902	217	339	17	7	393	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	568	506	154	30	0	22	48	87	10	2	1	304	376	494	870	190	329	15	8	383	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	521	472	152	26	1	26	37	95	6	3	0	322	379	547	925	225	353	18	7	401	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	124	114	28	7	0	4	9	26	0	0	1	246	301	412	713	167	282	21	7	314	97	-0	-0	-2	-5	+3	-0.6
2010	26	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	350	306	98	24	2	14	34	59	4	1	0	320	395	549	944	229	351	17	10	407	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	219	200	63	15	0	11	15	40	1	5	0	315	366	555	921	240	344	18	7	397	158	+15	+1	-1	-3	+5	1.8
2011	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	39	35	10	2	1	1	3	3	1	0	0	286	359	486	845	200	290	8	8	372	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	514	469	144	35	0	22	37	89	1	2	1	307	359	522	881	215	334	17	7	381	146	+28	+0	-13	-9	+11	1.8
2012	28	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	17	17	6	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	353	353	706	1.059	353	308	12	0	458	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	508	160	29	2	13	40	100	10	2	0	315	376	457	833	142	367	18	7	369	136	+24	+0	-9	-10	+12	1.8
2014	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	505	461	99	20	1	8	35	113	7	2	1	215	280	315	595	100	266	22	7	271	65	-21	+0	-6	-5	+11	-2.2
2015	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	88	79	12	1	0	1	7	26	2	0	0	152	239	203	441	51	212	30	8	213	29	-7	+0	-2	-5	+2	-1.3
2015	31	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	399	343	94	14	0	4	49	70	4	0	0	274	371	350	721	76	331	18	12	331	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	84	75	13	3	1	1	7	16	1	0	0	173	253	280	533	107	203	19	8	243	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	33	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	182	158	40	7	0	1	22	40	2	0	2	253	352	316	668	63	333	22	12	312	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	34	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	363	317	93	18	1	13	39	73	4	0	0	293	378	479	857	186	342	20	11	378	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2013	1831	506	107	3	59	143	394	21	11	3	276	336	435	771	158	320	20	7	340	116	+40	+1	-33	-38	+44	1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2007	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	25	24	6	2	0	2	1	7	0	0	0	250	280	583	863	333	233	28	4	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	468	435	118	23	2	18	23	112	6	8	3	271	317	457	774	186	319	24	5	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	568	520	142	26	0	18	34	106	10	2	1	273	330	427	757	154	305	19	6	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	521	482	135	22	1	20	27	122	6	3	0	280	326	454	781	174	324	23	5	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	124	115	28	7	0	4	8	26	0	0	1	243	293	409	701	165	282	21	6	312	97	-0	-0	-2	-5	+3	-0.6
2010	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	350	314	87	22	2	9	26	77	4	1	0	277	340	446	786	169	323	22	7	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	219	200	63	14	0	12	15	40	1	5	0	315	366	565	931	250	344	18	7	402	158	+15	+1	-1	-3	+5	1.8
2011	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	39	36	10	2	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	278	333	472	806	194	260	10	5	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	514	470	144	33	0	24	36	89	1	2	1	306	357	530	887	223	334	17	7	384	146	+28	+0	-13	-9	+11	1.8
2012	28	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	17	17	6	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	353	353	706	1.059	353	270	12	0	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	510	160	28	2	14	38	100	10	2	0	314	373	459	832	145	367	18	7	369	136	+24	+0	-9	-10	+12	1.8
2014	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	505	461	96	18	1	8	35	113	7	2	1	208	274	304	578	95	266	22	7	265	65	-21	+0	-6	-5	+11	-2.2
2015	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	88	79	12	1	0	1	7	26	2	0	0	152	239	203	441	51	212	30	8	211	29	-7	+0	-2	-5	+2	-1.3
2015	31	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	399	359	87	13	0	3	33	88	4	0	0	242	313	304	617	61	308	22	8	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	84	77	13	3	1	1	5	20	1	0	0	169	229	273	502	104	195	24	6	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	33	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	182	165	36	6	0	1	15	49	2	0	2	218	291	273	564	55	301	27	8	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	34	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	363	331	70	12	1	9	25	96	4	0	0	211	275	335	610	124	263	26	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	493	459	124	25	2	20	24	120	6	8	3	270	315	464	779	194	322	24	5	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	493	447	139	27	2	24	36	85	6	8	3	311	370	541	912	230	336	17	7	396	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	568	520	142	26	0	18	34	106	10	2	1	273	330	427	757	154	310	19	6	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	—	568	506	154	30	0	22	48	87	10	2	1	304	376	494	870	190	329	15	8	383	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	521	482	135	22	1	20	27	122	6	3	0	280	326	454	781	174	332	23	5	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	—	521	472	152	26	1	26	37	95	6	3	0	322	379	547	925	225	353	18	7	401	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	474	429	115	28	2	14	34	103	4	1	1	268	328	441	768	172	317	22	7	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	474	420	126	31	2	18	43	85	4	1	1	300	370	512	882	212	333	18	9	383	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	258	236	73	16	1	13	17	44	2	5	0	309	361	551	912	242	331	17	7	389	149	+15	+1	-1	-3	+6	1.8
2011	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	258	235	73	17	1	12	18	43	2	5	0	311	365	545	909	234	335	17	7	393	149	+15	+1	-1	-3	+6	1.8
2012	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	531	487	149	33	0	25	36	91	1	2	1	306	355	528	883	222	328	17	7	383	146	+29	+0	-13	-9	+12	1.8
2012	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	531	486	150	35	0	24	37	91	1	2	1	309	359	529	888	220	333	17	7	384	146	+29	+0	-13	-9	+12	1.8
2013	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	510	160	28	2	14	38	100	10	2	0	314	373	459	832	145	364	18	7	369	136	+24	+0	-9	-10	+12	1.8
2013	29	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	508	160	29	2	13	40	100	10	2	0	315	376	457	833	142	367	18	7	369	136	+24	+0	-9	-10	+12	1.8
2014	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	505	461	96	18	1	8	35	113	7	2	1	208	274	304	578	95	257	22	7	265	65	-21	+0	-6	-5	+11	-2.2
2014	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	505	461	99	20	1	8	35	113	7	2	1	215	280	315	595	100	266	22	7	271	65	-21	+0	-6	-5	+11	-2.2
2015	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	487	438	99	14	0	4	40	114	6	0	0	226	300	285	585	59	294	23	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	487	422	106	15	0	5	56	96	6	0	0	251	347	322	669	71	312	20	11	310	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	84	77	13	3	1	1	5	20	1	0	0	169	229	273	502	104	211	24	6	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA RAW	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	84	75	13	3	1	1	7	16	1	0	0	173	253	280	533	107	203	19	8	243	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	33	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	182	165	36	6	0	1	15	49	2	0	2	218	291	273	564	55	304	27	8	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	33	AAA RAW	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	182	158	40	7	0	1	22	40	2	0	2	253	352	316	668	63	333	22	12	312	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	34	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	363	331	70	12	1	9	25	96	4	0	0	211	275	335	610	124	266	26	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	34	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	363	317	93	18	1	13	39	73	4	0	0	293	378	479	857	186	342	20	11	378	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	493	460	124	25	2	20	24	120	6	8	3	270	315	463	778	193	315	24	5	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	568	519	142	26	0	18	34	106	10	2	1	274	330	428	758	154	305	19	6	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	521	483	135	22	1	20	27	122	6	3	0	280	326	453	780	174	324	23	5	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	474	433	115	28	2	14	34	103	4	1	1	266	328	436	764	171	312	22	7	333	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	258	237	73	16	1	13	17	44	2	5	0	308	361	549	909	241	332	17	7	389	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	531	489	149	33	0	25	36	91	1	2	1	305	355	526	881	221	332	17	7	383	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	510	160	28	2	14	38	100	10	2	0	314	373	459	832	145	367	18	7	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	505	458	96	18	1	8	35	113	7	2	1	210	274	306	580	96	266	22	7	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	487	438	99	14	0	4	40	114	6	0	0	226	300	285	585	59	291	23	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	84	78	13	3	1	1	5	20	1	0	0	167	229	269	498	103	195	24	6	208	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	33	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	182	163	36	6	0	1	15	49	2	0	2	221	291	276	567	55	301	27	8	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	34	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	363	331	70	12	1	9	25	96	4	0	0	211	275	335	610	124	263	26	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2013	1831	506	107	3	59	143	394	21	11	3	276	336	435	771	158	320	20	7	340	104	+40	+1	-33	-38	+44	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	164	35	1	19	46	127	7	4	1	277	336	437	773	159	322	20	7	340	104	+13	+0	-11	-12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5029	4595	1212	231	11	147	330	1078	59	25	9	264	321	415	736	151	312	21	7	322	104	+40	+1	-33	-38	+44	1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	156	30	1	19	43	139	8	3	1	263	321	412	734	150	310	21	7	322	104	+13	+0	-11	-12	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 363 PAwOBA .369 → .269 (−100)K% 20.1% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.11%	÷0.983	×1.290	—	—	26.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.19%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×0.940	6.90%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	1.02%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.032	×0.900	×0.991	×0.940	20.31%
Doubles /BIP	7.38%	÷1.098	×0.810	×0.991	×0.940	5.07%
Triples /BIP	0.41%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.991	×0.940	0.27%
Home runs /BIP	5.33%	÷1.045	×0.780	—	×0.940	3.74%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .369 → .269; ISO .186 → .127; BABIP .342 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 182 PAwOBA .305 → .252 (−53)K% 22.0% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.98%	÷0.985	×1.200	—	—	26.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.09%	÷0.937	×0.690	—	×0.942	8.38%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.97%
Singles /BIP	27.12%	÷0.987	×0.930	×1.033	×0.942	24.88%
Doubles /BIP	5.93%	÷0.954	×0.830	×1.033	×0.942	5.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.033	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.85%	÷1.106	×0.840	—	×0.942	0.61%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 100, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .305 → .252; ISO .063 → .050; BABIP .333 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 84 PAwOBA .240 → .208 (−32)K% 19.0% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.05%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	23.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷1.007	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.44%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.07%
Singles /BIP	13.56%	÷0.957	×0.930	×1.050	×0.952	13.17%
Doubles /BIP	5.08%	÷0.923	×0.830	×1.050	×0.952	4.57%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷0.912	×0.970	×1.050	×0.952	1.80%
Home runs /BIP	1.69%	÷0.994	×0.840	—	×0.952	1.36%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 85, 3B 82, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .240 → .208; ISO .107 → .096; BABIP .203 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 399 PAwOBA .326 → .280 (−46)K% 17.5% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.54%	÷0.956	×1.200	—	—	22.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.28%	÷0.996	×0.690	—	×0.962	8.19%
HBP% /PA	1.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.91%
Singles /BIP	27.84%	÷0.989	×0.930	×1.031	×0.962	25.95%
Doubles /BIP	5.13%	÷0.867	×0.830	×1.031	×0.962	4.87%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.012	×0.970	×1.031	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.47%	÷1.012	×0.840	—	×0.962	1.17%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 73, 3B 102, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .326 → .280; ISO .076 → .067; BABIP .331 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 17 PAwOBA .443 → .359 (−84)K% 11.8% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷1.033	×1.290	—	—	14.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.014	×0.710	—	×0.992	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷0.985	×0.900	—	×0.992	24.18%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.916	×0.810	—	×0.992	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	13.33%	÷0.993	×0.780	—	×0.992	10.39%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 97, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 107, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .443 → .359; ISO .353 → .266; BABIP .308 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 39 PAwOBA .362 → .314 (−49)K% 7.7% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.69%	÷0.979	×1.290	—	—	10.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.008	×0.710	—	×1.003	5.44%
HBP% /PA	2.56%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	2.52%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷0.982	×0.900	—	×1.003	17.24%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷0.923	×0.810	—	×1.003	5.50%
Triples /BIP	3.12%	÷0.999	×0.810	—	×1.003	2.54%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷0.893	×0.780	—	×1.003	2.74%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 100, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .362 → .314; ISO .200 → .172; BABIP .290 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 350 PAwOBA .403 → .340 (−62)K% 16.9% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.86%	÷0.995	×1.290	—	—	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.71%	÷0.958	×0.710	—	×1.018	7.33%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	1.14%
Singles /BIP	23.48%	÷0.988	×0.900	×1.023	×1.018	22.28%
Doubles /BIP	9.72%	÷0.928	×0.810	×1.023	×1.018	8.84%
Triples /BIP	0.81%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.023	×1.018	0.76%
Home runs /BIP	5.67%	÷1.163	×0.780	—	×1.018	3.87%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 98, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .403 → .340; ISO .229 → .175; BABIP .351 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 521 PAwOBA .394 → .335 (−59)K% 18.2% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.23%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	23.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.91%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.07%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	1.17%
Singles /BIP	26.26%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.025	×1.033	25.02%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.025	×1.033	5.91%
Triples /BIP	0.27%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.025	×1.033	0.23%
Home runs /BIP	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.033	5.56%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .394 → .335; ISO .225 → .179; BABIP .353 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).