Juan Lagares

PosRF
B/TR/R
Born1989-03-17
Age (2027)38
No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.
Overview
INTL
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202334INTLAguilas Cibae…142.299/.364/.38627114—
202435INTLAguilas Cibae…76.319/.355/.50020142—
202536INTLAguilas Cibae…89.225/.279/.2750154—
Contract
No contract data on file.
Skills · percentileStatcast 2020-2022
Avg EV67
Speed50
Barrel%33
xwOBA23

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
200617 ROKDSL Mets — 232200 52783 23474 125 260348420768 160322 2010 336 40 — — — — — —
200718 ASavannah Sand Gnats — 304281 591262 18642 117 210262317579 107265 216 258 37 — — — — — —
200819 ASavannah Sand Gnats — 197181 46902 8281 34 254289337626 83286 144 273 53 — — — — — —
200920 ASavannah Sand Gnats — 177168 46620 6422 94 274307333640 60362 243 288 49 — — — — — —
200920 ROKGCL Mets — 2524 5100 140 10 208240250490 42250 164 224 -8 — — — — — —
201021 A+St. Lucie Mets — 137133 31502 2181 73 233250316566 83254 131 251 40 — — — — — —
201021 ASavannah Sand Gnats — 307290 871395 7443 182 300323459782 159333 142 336 88 — — — — — —
201122 AABinghamton Mets — 170162 601132 5291 102 370393512905 142439 173 395 139 — — — — — —
201122 A+St. Lucie Mets — 335308 1041567 21471 56 338382494875 156379 146 381 103 — — — — — —
201122 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 8682 22412 4160 41 268302415717 146312 195 317 101 — — — — — —
201223 AABinghamton Mets — 548499 1412964 37934 2110 283336389725 106337 177 322 84 — — — — — —
201223 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 6154 17200 5131 20 315383352735 37405 218 334 112 — — — — — —
201324 MLBNew York Mets — 421392 952154 20962 63 242283352635 110310 235 279 76 -12 +0 +20 +2 +9 2.0
201324 AAALas Vegas 51s — 8278 27323 4140 23 346378551929 205393 175 406 107 — — — — — —
201324 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 124114 39501 7161 51 342385412798 70384 136 355 126 — — — — — —
201425 MLBNew York Mets — 452416 1172434 20877 134 281325382707 101341 194 312 102 +1 +1 +10 +2 +10 2.4
201526 MLBNew York Mets — 465441 1141656 16874 73 259291358649 100308 193 288 84 -9 +0 +2 +2 +10 0.5
201526 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 6458 16100 5110 21 276333293626 17340 178 287 80 — — — — — —
201627 MLBNew York Mets — 160142 34723 11272 42 239303380684 141274 177 297 89 -2 +0 +4 +1 +3 0.6
201627 AABinghamton Mets — 1918 6010 051 00 333368444813 111462 260 362 97 — — — — — —
201627 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 5047 8210 140 10 170188255443 85182 82 188 13 — — — — — —
201728 MLBNew York Mets — 272252 631623 14563 73 250297365662 115309 215 294 91 -3 +0 +8 +1 +6 1.3
201728 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies — 2929 7000 060 00 241241241483 304 210 218 19 — — — — — —
201829 MLBNew York Mets — 6459 20110 391 31 339381390771 51392 145 344 117 +1 +0 +1 +0 +1 0.4
201829 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 2120 6210 120 00 300333500833 200333 105 362 131 — — — — — —
201930 MLBNew York Mets — 285258 551215 22752 41 213280326606 112279 268 273 69 -11 +0 +3 +1 +6 0.0
201930 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 111104 35211 6160 00 337373404777 67391 145 347 121 — — — — — —
202031 INTLDominican Republic — 119111 32512 7200 41 288331405736 117333 176 326 107 — — — — — —
202132 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 327309 732026 12761 12 236267372639 136294 234 279 77 -9 -1 -1 +1 +7 -0.2
202132 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 8883 25311 4150 20 301333398731 96353 175 323 105 — — — — — —
202233 MLBLos Angeles Angels — 6260 11210 2150 00 183210250460 67244 243 207 28 -5 +0 +0 -1 +1 -0.5
202233 AAASalt Lake Bees — 2926 8210 340 01 308379462841 154364 1410 372 86 — — — — — —
202233 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 1514 0000 020 00 130 -114 — — — — — —
202334 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 142127 38312 10183 71 299364386750 87333 137 336 114 — — — — — —
202435 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 7672 23702 2162 01 319355500855 181389 213 377 142 — — — — — —
202536 INTLAguilas Cibaenas — 8980 18400 4212 11 225279275554 50295 244 248 54 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 25082329 5821192231 12052822 4519 250293360653 110309 215 289 81 -55 +1 +47 +10 +54 5.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
200617 ROK MLEDSL Mets — 232207 36551 16574 125 174247261508 87223 257 227 40 — — — — — —
200718 A MLESavannah Sand Gnats — 304287 551062 12862 117 192229289518 98263 284 223 37 — — — — — —
200819 A MLESavannah Sand Gnats — 197183 44802 6371 34 240268317585 77274 193 247 53 — — — — — —
200920 A MLESavannah Sand Gnats — 177170 41520 4562 94 241267294561 53348 322 241 49 — — — — — —
200920 ROK MLEGCL Mets — 2524 4100 160 10 167200208408 42199 244 157 -8 — — — — — —
201021 A+ MLESt. Lucie Mets — 137133 29502 2251 73 218235301536 83249 181 227 40 — — — — — —
201021 A MLESavannah Sand Gnats — 307293 801084 4603 182 273290403693 130318 201 299 88 — — — — — —
201122 AA MLEBinghamton Mets — 170163 581031 4361 102 356375472847 117448 212 373 139 — — — — — —
201122 A+ MLESt. Lucie Mets — 335315 921445 14701 56 292324410734 117355 214 321 103 — — — — — —
201223 AA MLEBinghamton Mets — 548510 1352753 271154 2110 265307355662 90328 215 292 84 — — — — — —
201324 MLB MLENew York Mets — 421396 982254 16962 63 247280359639 111310 234 281 76 -12 +0 +20 +2 +9 2.0
201324 AAA MLELas Vegas 51s — 8279 22212 3190 23 278305405710 127364 234 326 107 — — — — — —
201425 MLB MLENew York Mets — 452417 1202534 19877 134 288330391720 103341 194 319 102 +1 +1 +10 +2 +10 2.4
201526 MLB MLENew York Mets — 465443 1171756 14874 73 264293366659 102308 193 293 84 -9 +0 +2 +2 +10 0.5
201627 MLB MLENew York Mets — 160143 35723 10272 42 245303385688 140274 176 300 89 -2 +0 +4 +1 +3 0.6
201627 AA MLEBinghamton Mets — 1918 5010 061 00 278316389705 111428 320 311 97 — — — — — —
201728 MLB MLENew York Mets — 272252 651723 14563 73 258305377682 119309 215 303 91 -3 +0 +8 +1 +6 1.3
201728 AA MLEBinghamton Rumble Ponies — 2929 6000 070 00 207207207414 294 240 197 19 — — — — — —
201829 MLB MLENew York Mets — 6460 20110 291 31 333365383748 50392 143 342 117 +1 +0 +1 +0 +1 0.4
201930 MLB MLENew York Mets — 285262 571315 18752 41 218273332605 115279 266 270 69 -11 +0 +3 +1 +6 0.0
202132 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 327309 742126 12761 12 239270379649 139294 234 282 77 -9 -1 -1 +1 +7 -0.2
202233 MLB MLELos Angeles Angels — 6260 11210 2150 00 183210250460 67244 243 209 28 -5 +0 +0 -1 +1 -0.5
202233 AAA MLESalt Lake Bees — 2927 7210 250 01 259310407718 148311 177 295 86 — — — — — —
200617 ROK MLEDSL Mets — 232207 36551 16574 125 174247261508 87232 257 227 40 — — — — — —
200617 ROK RAWDSL Mets — 232200 52783 23474 125 260348420768 160322 2010 336 40 — — — — — —
200718 A MLESavannah Sand Gnats — 304287 551062 12862 117 192229289518 98266 284 223 37 — — — — — —
200718 A RAWSavannah Sand Gnats — 304281 591262 18642 117 210262317579 107265 216 258 37 — — — — — —
200819 A MLESavannah Sand Gnats — 197183 44802 6371 34 240268317585 77286 193 247 53 — — — — — —
200819 A RAWSavannah Sand Gnats — 197181 46902 8281 34 254289337626 83286 144 273 53 — — — — — —
200920 A MLE2 teams — 202194 44520 5622 104 227254273527 46331 312 231 42 — — — — — —
200920 A RAW2 teams — 202192 51720 7462 104 266299323621 57347 233 280 42 — — — — — —
201021 A MLE2 teams — 444426 1101586 6854 255 258275373648 115305 191 277 73 — — — — — —
201021 A RAW2 teams — 444423 1181897 9624 255 279300414714 135308 142 310 73 — — — — — —
201122 A+ MLE3 teams — 591561 1782998 211242 199 317344444788 127394 214 339 115 — — — — — —
201122 A+ RAW3 teams — 591552 186301011 30922 199 337373487861 150387 165 376 115 — — — — — —
201223 AA MLE2 teams — 609566 1513064 301275 2310 267309362672 95333 215 292 84 — — — — — —
201223 AA RAW2 teams — 609553 1583164 421065 2310 286341385726 99343 177 323 84 — — — — — —
201324 MLB MLE3 teams — 627591 1523188 241433 137 257290377667 120324 234 288 81 -14 -0 +20 +2 +14 2.2
201324 MLB RAW3 teams — 627584 1612978 311263 137 276316390706 115337 205 311 81 -14 -0 +20 +2 +14 2.2
201425 MLB MLENew York Mets — 452417 1202534 19877 134 288330391720 103349 194 319 102 +1 +1 +10 +2 +10 2.4
201425 MLB RAWNew York Mets — 452416 1172434 20877 134 281325382707 101341 194 312 102 +1 +1 +10 +2 +10 2.4
201526 MLB MLE2 teams — 529504 1341967 16994 94 266294369663 103317 193 293 84 -10 +0 +2 +2 +11 0.6
201526 MLB RAW2 teams — 529499 1301756 21984 94 261296351647 90312 194 288 84 -10 +0 +2 +2 +11 0.6
201627 MLB MLE3 teams — 229206 521044 13423 52 252306398704 146296 186 301 90 -3 +0 +4 +1 +5 0.7
201627 MLB RAW3 teams — 229207 48943 12363 52 232284357641 126265 165 279 90 -3 +0 +4 +1 +5 0.7
201728 MLB MLE2 teams — 301281 721723 14633 73 256299363662 107319 215 293 84 -6 +0 +8 +1 +7 1.0
201728 MLB RAW2 teams — 301281 701623 14623 73 249292352644 103309 215 287 84 -6 +0 +8 +1 +7 1.0
201829 MLB MLE2 teams — 8580 27110 3121 31 338369375744 37391 144 342 117 +2 +0 +1 +0 +2 0.5
201829 MLB RAW2 teams — 8579 26320 4111 31 329369418787 89377 135 348 117 +2 +0 +1 +0 +2 0.5
201930 MLB MLE2 teams — 396365 791817 251042 41 216270329599 112282 266 270 69 -15 +0 +3 +1 +9 -0.1
201930 MLB RAW2 teams — 396362 901426 28912 41 249306348654 99316 237 294 69 -15 +0 +3 +1 +9 -0.1
202031 INTL MLEDominican Republic — 119111 32512 7200 41 288331405736 117333 176 — — — — — — — —
202031 INTL RAWDominican Republic — 119111 32512 7200 41 288331405736 117333 176 326 107 — — — — — —
202132 MLB MLE2 teams — 415393 932637 15961 32 237267372638 135295 234 282 77 -11 -0 -1 +1 +9 -0.2
202132 MLB RAW2 teams — 415392 982337 16911 32 250281378659 128307 224 288 77 -11 -0 -1 +1 +9 -0.2
202233 MLB MLE3 teams — 106100 21420 5230 01 210248290538 80269 225 236 46 -7 -0 +0 -1 +2 -0.6
202233 MLB RAW3 teams — 106100 19420 5210 01 190229270499 80237 205 223 46 -7 -0 +0 -1 +2 -0.6
202334 INTL MLEAguilas Cibaenas — 142127 38312 10183 71 299364386750 87333 137 — — — — — — — —
202334 INTL RAWAguilas Cibaenas — 142127 38312 10183 71 299364386750 87333 137 336 114 — — — — — —
202435 INTL MLEAguilas Cibaenas — 7672 23702 2162 01 319355500855 181389 213 — — — — — — — —
202435 INTL RAWAguilas Cibaenas — 7672 23702 2162 01 319355500855 181389 213 377 142 — — — — — —
202536 INTL MLEAguilas Cibaenas — 8980 18400 4212 11 225279275554 50295 244 — — — — — — — —
202536 INTL RAWAguilas Cibaenas — 8980 18400 4212 11 225279275554 50295 244 248 54 — — — — — —
200617 ROK MLEDSL Mets — 232210 36551 16574 125 171247257504 86223 257 227 40 — — — — — —
200718 A MLESavannah Sand Gnats — 304287 551062 12862 117 192229289518 98263 284 223 37 — — — — — —
200819 A MLESavannah Sand Gnats — 197188 44802 6371 34 234268309577 74274 193 247 53 — — — — — —
200920 A MLE2 teams — 202193 44520 5622 104 228254275528 47330 312 231 42 — — — — — —
201021 A MLE2 teams — 444431 1101586 6854 255 255275369644 114297 191 277 73 — — — — — —
201122 A+ MLE3 teams — 591563 1782998 211242 199 316344442786 126386 214 339 115 — — — — — —
201223 AA MLE2 teams — 609569 1513064 301275 2310 265309360670 95328 215 292 84 — — — — — —
201324 MLB MLE3 teams — 627595 1523188 241433 137 255290375664 119318 234 288 81 — — — — — —
201425 MLB MLENew York Mets — 452423 1202534 19877 134 284330385715 102341 194 319 102 — — — — — —
201526 MLB MLE2 teams — 529504 1341967 16994 94 266294369663 103308 193 293 84 — — — — — —
201627 MLB MLE3 teams — 229211 521044 13423 52 246306389695 142291 186 301 90 — — — — — —
201728 MLB MLE2 teams — 301281 721723 14633 73 256299363662 107308 215 293 84 — — — — — —
201829 MLB MLE2 teams — 8581 27110 3121 31 333369370739 37392 144 342 117 — — — — — —
201930 MLB MLE2 teams — 396366 791817 251042 41 216270328598 112279 266 270 69 — — — — — —
202132 MLB MLE2 teams — 415396 932637 15961 32 235267369635 134294 234 282 77 — — — — — —
202233 MLB MLE3 teams — 106100 21420 5230 01 210248290538 80266 225 236 46 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 25082329 5821192231 12052822 4519 250293360653 110309 215 289 66 -55 +1 +47 +10 +54 5.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650604 1513168 311376 125 250293361654 111309 215 289 66 -14 +0 +12 +3 +14 1.5
Career— MLE — 61455751 14792726869 253132251 17273 257294364659 107320 224 265 66 -55 +1 +47 +10 +54 5.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650608 1562977 271405 188 257294362656 105320 224 265 66 -14 +0 +12 +3 +14 1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 29 PAwOBA .363 → .295 (−68)K% 13.8% → 16.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.79%÷0.989×1.200——16.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.34%÷1.034×0.690—×0.9426.51%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9420.00%
Singles /BIP22.73%÷0.993×0.930—×0.94220.05%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷0.956×0.830—×0.9427.43%
Triples /BIP4.55%÷1.150×0.970—×0.9423.61%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.978×0.700—×0.9420.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .363 → .295; ISO .154 → .125; BABIP .364 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 29 PAwOBA .212 → .197 (−16)K% 20.7% → 24.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.69%÷1.046×1.220——24.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷0.986×0.700—×0.9680.00%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×0.9680.00%
Singles /BIP30.43%÷0.971×0.970—×0.96829.44%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.056×0.860—×0.9680.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.950—×0.9680.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.365×0.780—×0.9680.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 173, 1B 94, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .212 → .197; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .304 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABinghamton Mets · 19 PAwOBA .352 → .311 (−41)K% 26.3% → 30.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.32%÷1.062×1.220——30.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA0.00%÷0.996×0.700—×0.9780.00%
HBP% /PA5.26%—×0.850—×0.9784.38%
Singles /BIP38.46%÷1.034×0.970—×0.97835.28%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.070×0.860—×0.9780.00%
Triples /BIP7.69%÷0.956×0.950—×0.9787.48%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.085×0.780—×0.9780.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 107, 2B 114, 3B 91, K 112, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .352 → .311; ISO .111 → .103; BABIP .462 → .428. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAALas Vegas 51s · 82 PAwOBA .395 → .326 (−68)K% 17.1% → 23.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.07%÷0.952×1.290——23.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.88%÷0.994×0.710—×1.0483.65%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.980—×1.0480.00%
Singles /BIP29.69%÷1.018×0.900×1.041×1.04828.62%
Doubles /BIP4.69%÷1.023×0.810×1.041×1.0484.05%
Triples /BIP3.12%÷1.150×0.810×1.041×1.0482.40%
Home runs /BIP4.69%÷1.078×0.780—×1.0483.56%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .395 → .326; ISO .205 → .150; BABIP .393 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AABinghamton Mets · 548 PAwOBA .316 → .292 (−24)K% 17.0% → 20.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.97%÷0.989×1.220——20.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.75%÷0.990×0.700—×1.0274.91%
HBP% /PA0.73%—×0.850—×1.0270.64%
Singles /BIP25.12%÷1.036×0.970×1.031×1.02724.89%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷0.967×0.860×1.031×1.0276.73%
Triples /BIP1.48%÷1.093×0.950×1.031×1.0271.36%
Home runs /BIP0.99%÷0.932×0.780—×1.0270.85%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 107, 2B 93, 3B 119, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .316 → .292; ISO .106 → .097; BABIP .337 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 A+St. Lucie Mets · 335 PAwOBA .372 → .321 (−52)K% 14.0% → 21.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.03%÷0.947×1.420——21.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.97%÷1.042×0.750—×1.0124.35%
HBP% /PA0.30%—×0.930—×1.0120.28%
Singles /BIP29.12%÷1.009×0.920×1.026×1.01227.56%
Doubles /BIP5.75%÷1.013×0.960×1.026×1.0125.65%
Triples /BIP2.30%÷1.097×0.810×1.026×1.0121.76%
Home runs /BIP2.68%÷1.095×0.880—×1.0122.18%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 119, K 89, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .372 → .321; ISO .156 → .127; BABIP .379 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AABinghamton Mets · 170 PAwOBA .386 → .373 (−13)K% 17.1% → 20.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.06%÷0.995×1.220——20.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.94%÷0.944×0.700—×1.0422.27%
HBP% /PA0.59%—×0.850—×1.0420.52%
Singles /BIP33.08%÷1.005×0.970×1.028×1.04234.20%
Doubles /BIP8.27%÷0.961×0.860×1.028×1.0427.93%
Triples /BIP2.26%÷0.920×0.950×1.028×1.0422.50%
Home runs /BIP1.50%÷1.102×0.780—×1.0421.11%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 92, 3B 84, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .386 → .373; ISO .142 → .130; BABIP .439 → .448. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 ASavannah Sand Gnats · 307 PAwOBA .332 → .299 (−33)K% 14.3% → 19.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.33%÷0.988×1.340——19.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.28%÷1.072×0.660—×1.0151.42%
HBP% /PA0.98%—×0.770—×1.0150.76%
Singles /BIP24.39%÷0.968×0.920×1.032×1.01524.28%
Doubles /BIP5.28%÷1.050×0.820×1.032×1.0154.32%
Triples /BIP3.66%÷1.105×0.940×1.032×1.0153.26%
Home runs /BIP2.03%÷0.920×0.820—×1.0151.84%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 94, 2B 110, 3B 121, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .332 → .299; ISO .159 → .136; BABIP .333 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .