Josmil Pinto

PosC

B/TR/R

Born1989-03-31

Age (2027)38

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLLAST SEASON 2020

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2018	29	INTLNavegantes de…	30	.179/.207/.286	1	0	30	—
2019	30	INTLNavegantes de…	186	.272/.375/.424	5	2	128	—
2020	31	INTLNavegantes de…	18	.176/.222/.353	1	0	59	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	17	ROK	VSL Twins/Blue Jays	—	224	195	49	7	1	3	25	27	1	3	3	251	339	344	683	92	275	12	11	310	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	18	ROK	DSL Twins	—	210	171	33	8	1	1	29	23	6	3	1	193	330	269	599	76	215	11	14	283	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	19	ROK	GCL Twins	—	94	85	28	9	3	1	9	14	0	1	0	329	394	541	935	212	386	15	10	408	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	230	205	68	14	2	13	19	39	2	0	1	332	394	610	1.004	278	350	17	8	427	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A	Beloit Snappers	—	392	347	78	21	1	10	32	67	5	2	3	225	299	378	677	153	246	17	8	299	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	236	221	58	11	1	5	12	36	2	1	0	262	306	389	696	127	293	15	5	310	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A	Beloit Snappers	—	36	32	8	3	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	250	294	438	732	188	304	28	6	304	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	52	47	14	4	1	2	4	10	1	0	0	298	365	553	919	255	343	19	8	399	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	393	349	103	22	2	12	39	63	0	0	0	295	366	473	839	178	326	16	10	367	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	32	29	5	2	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	172	250	345	595	172	182	19	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	83	76	26	5	0	4	6	22	1	0	0	342	398	566	963	224	440	27	7	422	172	+7	+0	-2	+11	+2	1.9
2013	24	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	75	70	22	9	0	1	2	12	1	0	0	314	342	486	828	171	356	16	3	355	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	452	385	119	23	1	14	64	69	3	0	2	309	412	483	895	174	348	15	14	399	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	28	28	5	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	1	179	179	179	357		250	29	0	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	197	169	37	8	0	7	24	50	1	0	1	219	320	391	710	172	261	25	12	316	100	-0	-0	-7	+10	+4	0.6
2014	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	242	208	58	17	1	6	31	37	2	0	1	279	378	457	834	178	313	15	13	371	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	97	84	27	5	1	2	11	19	2	0	0	321	412	476	889	155	397	20	11	397	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	263	237	54	9	0	7	22	54	4	0	0	228	304	354	659	127	267	21	8	300	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	ROK	GCL Twins	—	15	14	4	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	286	267	571	838	286	273	13	0	345	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	INTL	Tigres de Aragua	—	82	73	18	2	1	1	9	15	0	0	0	247	329	342	672	96	298	18	11	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	315	286	88	21	3	11	26	67	0	0	0	308	365	517	883	210	365	21	8	384	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	104	84	17	4	0	3	19	21	0	0	2	202	350	357	707	155	230	20	18	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	30	28	5	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	179	207	286	493	107	174	17	3	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	186	158	43	7	1	5	24	36	2	2	0	272	375	424	799	152	319	19	13	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	31	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	18	17	3	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	176	222	353	575	176	167	22	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	280	245	63	13	0	11	30	72	2	0	1	257	343	445	788	188	315	26	11	347	121	+7	-0	-9	+21	+6	2.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	17	ROK MLE	VSL Twins/Blue Jays	—	224	203	33	4	1	1	17	33	1	3	3	163	231	207	438	44	185	15	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	210	180	23	5	1	1	20	28	6	3	1	128	238	183	421	56	139	13	10	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	19	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	94	88	22	7	2	1	6	20	0	1	0	250	298	409	707	159	314	21	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	230	213	53	10	1	10	11	55	2	0	1	249	292	446	738	197	275	24	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	—	392	359	70	18	1	8	20	90	5	2	3	195	247	318	565	123	225	23	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	236	225	50	11	1	4	8	54	2	1	0	222	255	333	589	111	272	23	3	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	—	36	33	7	2	0	1	1	14	0	0	0	212	235	364	599	152	259	39	3	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	52	48	13	3	1	2	3	12	1	0	0	271	327	500	827	229	319	23	6	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	393	358	83	19	1	11	30	94	0	0	0	232	291	383	674	151	272	24	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	83	76	26	5	0	4	6	22	1	0	0	342	398	566	963	224	440	27	7	422	172	+7	+0	-2	+11	+2	1.9
2013	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	75	71	20	8	0	1	1	15	1	0	0	282	301	437	738	155	330	20	1	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	452	405	117	21	1	13	44	83	3	0	2	289	363	442	805	153	337	18	10	350	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	197	169	37	8	0	7	24	50	1	0	1	219	320	391	710	172	261	25	12	315	100	-0	-0	-7	+10	+4	0.6
2014	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	242	221	54	14	1	5	18	44	2	0	1	244	307	385	692	140	282	18	7	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	263	243	51	8	0	6	16	63	4	0	0	210	270	317	587	107	254	24	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	15	15	4	1	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	267	267	533	800	267	197	20	0	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	315	294	68	14	2	8	18	90	0	0	0	231	276	374	650	143	297	29	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	17	ROK MLE	VSL Twins/Blue Jays	—	224	203	33	4	1	1	17	33	1	3	3	163	231	207	438	44	187	15	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	17	ROK RAW	VSL Twins/Blue Jays	—	224	195	49	7	1	3	25	27	1	3	3	251	339	344	683	92	275	12	11	310	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	210	180	23	5	1	1	20	28	6	3	1	128	238	183	421	56	144	13	10	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	210	171	33	8	1	1	29	23	6	3	1	193	330	269	599	76	215	11	14	283	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	19	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	94	88	22	7	2	1	6	20	0	1	0	250	298	409	707	159	313	21	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	19	ROK RAW	GCL Twins	—	94	85	28	9	3	1	9	14	0	1	0	329	394	541	935	212	386	15	10	408	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	230	213	53	10	1	10	11	55	2	0	1	249	292	446	738	197	283	24	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK RAW	Elizabethton Twins	—	230	205	68	14	2	13	19	39	2	0	1	332	394	610	1.004	278	350	17	8	427	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	—	392	359	70	18	1	8	20	90	5	2	3	195	247	318	565	123	232	23	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	—	392	347	78	21	1	10	32	67	5	2	3	225	299	378	677	153	246	17	8	299	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	272	257	57	13	1	5	10	67	2	1	0	222	257	339	595	117	277	25	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	272	253	66	14	1	6	14	46	2	1	0	261	305	395	700	134	294	17	5	309	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	477	436	103	24	3	14	35	114	1	0	0	236	294	401	696	165	284	24	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	477	425	122	28	3	15	46	79	1	0	0	287	358	473	831	186	318	17	10	364	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	4 teams	—	638	577	170	36	1	18	54	125	5	0	3	295	360	454	814	159	349	20	8	357	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA RAW	4 teams	—	638	559	172	37	1	19	72	111	5	0	3	308	392	479	871	172	355	17	11	387	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	536	475	111	27	1	15	52	115	5	0	2	234	316	389	705	156	275	21	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	536	461	122	30	2	15	66	106	5	0	2	265	363	436	799	171	311	20	12	356	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	360	336	69	11	0	9	20	85	4	0	0	205	258	318	577	113	248	24	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	360	324	76	12	1	9	31	71	4	0	0	235	308	361	669	127	275	20	9	303	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	419	392	91	18	3	11	23	119	0	0	2	232	275	378	652	145	301	28	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	419	370	105	25	3	14	45	88	0	0	2	284	361	481	843	197	335	21	11	369	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	INTL MLE	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	30	28	5	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	179	207	286	493	107	174	17	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	INTL RAW	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	30	28	5	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	179	207	286	493	107	174	17	3	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	INTL MLE	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	186	158	43	7	1	5	24	36	2	2	0	272	375	424	799	152	319	19	13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	INTL RAW	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	186	158	43	7	1	5	24	36	2	2	0	272	375	424	799	152	319	19	13	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	31	INTL MLE	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	18	17	3	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	176	222	353	575	176	167	22	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	31	INTL RAW	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	18	17	3	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	176	222	353	575	176	167	22	6	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	17	ROK MLE	VSL Twins/Blue Jays	—	224	204	33	4	1	1	17	33	1	3	3	162	231	206	437	44	185	15	8	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	210	182	23	5	1	1	20	28	6	3	1	126	238	181	419	55	139	13	10	191	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	19	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	94	88	22	7	2	1	6	20	0	1	0	250	298	409	707	159	314	21	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	230	215	53	10	1	10	11	55	2	0	1	247	292	442	734	195	275	24	5	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	—	392	364	70	18	1	8	20	90	5	2	3	192	247	313	561	121	225	23	5	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	272	258	57	13	1	5	10	67	2	1	0	221	257	337	594	116	270	25	4	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	477	438	103	24	3	14	35	114	1	0	0	235	294	400	694	164	277	24	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	4 teams	—	638	574	170	36	1	18	54	125	5	0	3	296	360	456	817	160	350	20	8	357	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	536	474	111	27	1	15	52	115	5	0	2	234	316	390	706	156	273	21	10	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	360	333	69	11	0	9	20	85	4	0	0	207	258	321	580	114	251	24	6	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	419	393	91	18	3	11	23	119	0	0	2	232	275	377	651	145	297	28	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	280	245	63	13	0	11	30	72	2	0	1	257	343	445	788	188	315	26	11	347	69	+7	-0	-9	+21	+6	2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	569	147	30	0	26	70	167	5	0	2	258	345	448	793	190	316	26	11	347	69	+16	-1	-21	+49	+14	5.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4086	3719	853	180	16	100	294	896	33	12	15	229	292	367	659	138	273	22	7	270	69	+7	-0	-9	+21	+6	2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	137	29	3	16	47	143	5	2	2	231	294	372	666	140	276	22	7	270	69	+16	-1	-21	+49	+14	5.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 315 PAwOBA .377 → .283 (−94)K% 21.3% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.27%	÷0.964	×1.290	—	—	28.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.25%	÷1.052	×0.710	—	×1.003	5.59%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.20%	÷1.046	×0.900	×1.019	×1.003	21.27%
Doubles /BIP	9.59%	÷1.196	×0.810	×1.019	×1.003	6.64%
Triples /BIP	1.37%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.019	×1.003	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	5.02%	÷0.973	×0.780	—	×1.003	4.04%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 109, 2B 139, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .377 → .283; ISO .210 → .151; BABIP .365 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAARochester Red Wings · 263 PAwOBA .292 → .258 (−34)K% 20.5% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.53%	÷1.030	×1.200	—	—	23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.37%	÷0.980	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.99%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.46%
Singles /BIP	20.77%	÷0.979	×0.930	×1.011	×1.018	20.30%
Doubles /BIP	4.92%	÷0.987	×0.830	×1.011	×1.018	4.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.932	×0.970	×1.011	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.83%	÷0.956	×0.840	—	×1.018	3.42%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 86, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .292 → .258; ISO .127 → .111; BABIP .267 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKGCL Twins · 15 PAwOBA .334 → .247 (−87)K% 13.3% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.33%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	19.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	12.85%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	5.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	6.11%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .334 → .247; ISO .286 → .208; BABIP .273 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAARochester Red Wings · 242 PAwOBA .360 → .306 (−54)K% 15.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.29%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.98%	÷1.125	×0.690	—	×1.033	7.59%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.80%
Singles /BIP	19.88%	÷1.010	×0.930	×0.999	×1.033	18.90%
Doubles /BIP	9.94%	÷1.059	×0.830	×0.999	×1.033	8.04%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.999	×1.033	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	3.51%	÷1.075	×0.840	—	×1.033	2.83%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 102, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 100, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .360 → .306; ISO .178 → .152; BABIP .313 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 452 PAwOBA .388 → .350 (−38)K% 15.3% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.27%	÷1.020	×1.220	—	—	18.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.94%	÷1.011	×0.700	—	×1.012	9.77%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.57%
Singles /BIP	25.63%	÷0.995	×0.970	×1.005	×1.012	25.41%
Doubles /BIP	7.28%	÷0.963	×0.860	×1.005	×1.012	6.61%
Triples /BIP	0.32%	÷0.900	×0.950	×1.005	×1.012	0.34%
Home runs /BIP	4.43%	÷0.897	×0.780	—	×1.012	3.90%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .388 → .350; ISO .174 → .159; BABIP .348 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAARochester Red Wings · 75 PAwOBA .354 → .324 (−30)K% 16.0% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.00%	÷0.987	×1.200	—	—	19.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.67%	÷1.026	×0.690	—	×1.048	1.88%
HBP% /PA	1.33%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.31%
Singles /BIP	20.69%	÷1.040	×0.930	×1.011	×1.048	19.59%
Doubles /BIP	15.52%	÷0.977	×0.830	×1.011	×1.048	13.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.011	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.72%	÷0.938	×0.840	—	×1.048	1.62%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 108, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .354 → .324; ISO .171 → .156; BABIP .356 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 393 PAwOBA .362 → .291 (−71)K% 16.0% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.03%	÷0.956	×1.420	—	—	23.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.92%	÷0.977	×0.750	—	×0.998	7.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.43%	÷1.095	×0.920	×0.973	×0.998	19.12%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.022	×0.960	×0.973	×0.998	7.01%
Triples /BIP	0.70%	÷1.052	×0.810	×0.973	×0.998	0.52%
Home runs /BIP	4.20%	÷0.930	×0.880	—	×0.998	3.96%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 110, K 91, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .362 → .291; ISO .178 → .154; BABIP .326 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 52 PAwOBA .388 → .342 (−47)K% 19.2% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.23%	÷0.983	×1.220	—	—	23.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.036	×0.700	—	×1.027	5.34%
HBP% /PA	1.92%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	1.68%
Singles /BIP	18.92%	÷1.015	×0.970	—	×1.027	18.57%
Doubles /BIP	10.81%	÷1.067	×0.860	—	×1.027	8.95%
Triples /BIP	2.70%	÷0.981	×0.950	—	×1.027	2.69%
Home runs /BIP	5.41%	÷0.811	×0.780	—	×1.027	5.34%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 103, 2B 113, 3B 96, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .388 → .342; ISO .255 → .232; BABIP .343 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .