Matt Kennelly
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 434 | .221/.308/.272 | 1 | 0 | 47 | — | .198/.261/.231 |
| 2016 | 27 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 219 | .241/.312/.287 | 2 | 2 | 60 | — | .137/.182/.205 |
| 2017 | 28 | INTLPerth Heat | 15 | .417/.533/.500 | 0 | 1 | 202 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 18 | ROK | GCL Braves | — | 115 | 107 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 270 | 308 | 578 | 93 | 244 | 17 | 4 | 264 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A | Rome Braves | — | 42 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 457 | 500 | 600 | 1.100 | 143 | 552 | 19 | 5 | 441 | 179 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK | Danville Braves | — | 177 | 167 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 246 | 280 | 371 | 651 | 126 | 291 | 21 | 5 | 287 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 174 | 159 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 195 | 260 | 239 | 499 | 44 | 263 | 25 | 8 | 233 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A | Rome Braves | — | 173 | 157 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 255 | 320 | 318 | 638 | 64 | 322 | 21 | 8 | 292 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 291 | 261 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 226 | 299 | 356 | 655 | 130 | 244 | 14 | 9 | 293 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 159 | 134 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 306 | 408 | 418 | 826 | 112 | 339 | 11 | 13 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 295 | 256 | 67 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 64 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 348 | 328 | 676 | 66 | 340 | 22 | 10 | 309 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 189 | 165 | 49 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 297 | 376 | 442 | 819 | 145 | 303 | 10 | 10 | 362 | 131 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 224 | 197 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 254 | 341 | 345 | 686 | 91 | 287 | 12 | 9 | 314 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 30 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 333 | 240 | 573 | 40 | 238 | 13 | 13 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 63 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 258 | 305 | 563 | 85 | 250 | 17 | 5 | 251 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 33 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 281 | 241 | 523 | 34 | 240 | 12 | 6 | 241 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 171 | 151 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 298 | 358 | 417 | 775 | 119 | 294 | 8 | 7 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 277 | 252 | 67 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 39 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 330 | 313 | 643 | 48 | 313 | 14 | 8 | 296 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 198 | 171 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 287 | 368 | 386 | 754 | 99 | 303 | 10 | 11 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Braves | — | 56 | 49 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 304 | 265 | 569 | 61 | 270 | 21 | 12 | 269 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 278 | 241 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 220 | 308 | 249 | 557 | 29 | 264 | 15 | 11 | 260 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 100 | 85 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 312 | 341 | 654 | 106 | 250 | 11 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 77 | 71 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 155 | 221 | 225 | 446 | 70 | 172 | 16 | 8 | 209 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 142 | 124 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 290 | 362 | 323 | 685 | 32 | 327 | 13 | 8 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 15 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 417 | 533 | 500 | 1.033 | 83 | 500 | 13 | 20 | 466 | 202 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 115 | 109 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 209 | 220 | 429 | 55 | 206 | 23 | 3 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 42 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 444 | 474 | 583 | 1.057 | 139 | 515 | 26 | 2 | 433 | 179 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | Danville Braves | — | 177 | 170 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 182 | 206 | 271 | 476 | 88 | 235 | 30 | 3 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 174 | 164 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 171 | 214 | 207 | 421 | 37 | 264 | 36 | 5 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | Rome Braves | — | 173 | 161 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 217 | 267 | 273 | 541 | 56 | 295 | 28 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 291 | 271 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 61 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 210 | 257 | 321 | 578 | 111 | 247 | 21 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 295 | 266 | 63 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 78 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 237 | 300 | 301 | 601 | 64 | 317 | 26 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 224 | 205 | 48 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 234 | 296 | 322 | 618 | 88 | 269 | 15 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 63 | 60 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 242 | 300 | 542 | 83 | 246 | 22 | 3 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 33 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 233 | 483 | 33 | 219 | 15 | 3 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 277 | 260 | 61 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 49 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 235 | 279 | 277 | 556 | 42 | 287 | 18 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Braves | — | 56 | 52 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 250 | 250 | 500 | 58 | 249 | 27 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 278 | 251 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 199 | 264 | 227 | 491 | 28 | 241 | 18 | 8 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 77 | 73 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 137 | 182 | 205 | 387 | 68 | 148 | 18 | 5 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 115 | 109 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 209 | 220 | 429 | 55 | 210 | 23 | 3 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Braves | — | 115 | 107 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 270 | 308 | 578 | 93 | 244 | 17 | 4 | 264 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 219 | 206 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 228 | 254 | 325 | 579 | 97 | 308 | 29 | 3 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 219 | 202 | 57 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 282 | 319 | 411 | 730 | 129 | 340 | 21 | 5 | 316 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 325 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 111 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 194 | 241 | 240 | 481 | 46 | 286 | 32 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 347 | 316 | 71 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 80 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 225 | 290 | 278 | 568 | 54 | 294 | 23 | 8 | 262 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 415 | 89 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 214 | 267 | 323 | 590 | 108 | 255 | 21 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 450 | 395 | 100 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 47 | 60 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 253 | 337 | 377 | 714 | 124 | 277 | 13 | 10 | 321 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 436 | 102 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 128 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 298 | 296 | 594 | 62 | 322 | 26 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 484 | 421 | 116 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 48 | 82 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 276 | 359 | 373 | 732 | 97 | 324 | 17 | 10 | 329 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 232 | 53 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 228 | 292 | 310 | 603 | 82 | 267 | 15 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 254 | 222 | 55 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 248 | 340 | 333 | 673 | 86 | 281 | 12 | 10 | 310 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 267 | 246 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 207 | 247 | 264 | 511 | 57 | 247 | 19 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 267 | 239 | 64 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 268 | 324 | 368 | 693 | 100 | 278 | 11 | 6 | 305 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 475 | 443 | 106 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 84 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 281 | 284 | 566 | 45 | 292 | 18 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 475 | 423 | 116 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 58 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 274 | 345 | 343 | 688 | 69 | 309 | 12 | 9 | 312 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 434 | 389 | 77 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 85 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 198 | 266 | 231 | 497 | 33 | 249 | 20 | 8 | 222 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 434 | 375 | 83 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 65 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 221 | 308 | 272 | 580 | 51 | 261 | 15 | 10 | 267 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 219 | 201 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 134 | 191 | 189 | 380 | 55 | 155 | 18 | 5 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 219 | 195 | 47 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 241 | 312 | 287 | 599 | 46 | 273 | 14 | 8 | 274 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | INTL MLE | Perth Heat | — | 15 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 417 | 533 | 500 | 1.033 | 83 | 500 | 13 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | INTL RAW | Perth Heat | — | 15 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 417 | 533 | 500 | 1.033 | 83 | 500 | 13 | 20 | 466 | 202 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Braves | — | 115 | 108 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 209 | 222 | 431 | 56 | 206 | 23 | 3 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 219 | 210 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 224 | 254 | 319 | 573 | 95 | 289 | 29 | 3 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 324 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 111 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 194 | 241 | 241 | 481 | 46 | 279 | 32 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 450 | 417 | 89 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 213 | 267 | 321 | 589 | 108 | 247 | 21 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 441 | 102 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 128 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 298 | 293 | 591 | 61 | 317 | 26 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 254 | 231 | 53 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 229 | 292 | 312 | 604 | 82 | 269 | 15 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 267 | 252 | 51 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 202 | 247 | 258 | 505 | 56 | 237 | 19 | 4 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 475 | 446 | 106 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 84 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 281 | 283 | 564 | 45 | 287 | 18 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 434 | 395 | 77 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 85 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 195 | 266 | 228 | 494 | 33 | 242 | 20 | 8 | 222 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 219 | 203 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 133 | 191 | 187 | 378 | 54 | 148 | 18 | 5 | 161 | -5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3279 | 3014 | 638 | 114 | 4 | 23 | 183 | 722 | 33 | 18 | 19 | 212 | 264 | 275 | 539 | 63 | 268 | 22 | 6 | 235 | 45 | -213 | -4 | +0 | +59 | +71 | -8.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 128 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 143 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 214 | 267 | 281 | 549 | 67 | 271 | 22 | 6 | 235 | 45 | -42 | -1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAMississippi Braves · 77 PAwOBA .204 → .161 (−43)K% 15.6% → 18.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.58% | ÷1.043 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.79% | ÷0.997 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.56% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×0.978 | 11.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.104 | ×0.910 | ×0.993 | ×0.978 | 2.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.993 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.084 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 1.22% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 103, 2B 121, 3B 130, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .204 → .161; ISO .070 → .053; BABIP .172 → .148. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAMississippi Braves · 278 PAwOBA .256 → .224 (−32)K% 15.1% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.11% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.79% | ÷0.965 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 7.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.36% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.12% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 20.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.52% | ÷0.927 | ×0.910 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 3.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.880 | ×1.012 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.784 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 57, 1B 104, 2B 85, 3B 101, K 106, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .256 → .224; ISO .029 → .030; BABIP .264 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAGwinnett Braves · 56 PAwOBA .263 → .213 (−50)K% 21.4% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.940 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.103 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷0.996 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 17.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷0.988 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 6.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 98, 3B 98, K 88, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .263 → .213; ISO .061 → .051; BABIP .270 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAMississippi Braves · 277 PAwOBA .290 → .249 (−40)K% 14.1% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.08% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.94% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.29% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 24.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷1.015 | ×0.910 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 4.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷1.004 | ×0.880 | ×1.027 | ×0.998 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.813 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 106, 2B 103, 3B 101, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .290 → .249; ISO .048 → .043; BABIP .313 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAALouisville Bats · 63 PAwOBA .248 → .225 (−22)K% 17.5% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.46% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.075 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 3.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.83% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.024 | ×1.048 | 20.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.960 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×1.048 | 3.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.024 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 1.77% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .248 → .225; ISO .085 → .073; BABIP .250 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 33 PAwOBA .235 → .211 (−24)K% 12.1% → 14.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.12% | ÷1.050 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.06% | ÷0.966 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.03% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 2.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 18.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 3.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.109 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 104, 2B 104, 3B 122, K 110, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .235 → .211; ISO .034 → .033; BABIP .240 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAMississippi Braves · 224 PAwOBA .308 → .272 (−36)K% 11.6% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.61% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.114 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 5.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.23% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.47% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 18.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.60% | ÷0.987 | ×0.910 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 7.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.020 | ×1.027 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.58% | ÷0.852 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.56% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 108, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 93, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .308 → .272; ISO .091 → .090; BABIP .287 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAMississippi Braves · 295 PAwOBA .299 → .268 (−31)K% 21.7% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.49% | ÷0.978 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 6.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.12% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×1.042 | 25.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.73% | ÷0.923 | ×0.910 | ×0.992 | ×1.042 | 5.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.880 | ×0.992 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷0.844 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.03% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 108, 2B 85, 3B 96, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .299 → .268; ISO .066 → .067; BABIP .340 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .