César Valdez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

César Valdez P Salt Lake Bees

Age 41 RHP 6'2" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 165 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.66

FIP4.72

K%18.1%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP165

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1085.3

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p4521.4%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2010	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	9	2	20	97	13	8	2	22%	2.2	13.4%	8.2%	5.2%	2.0%	7.65	4.13	+0.1
2010	25	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	9	2	20	97	13	8	2	22%	2.2	13.4%	8.2%	5.2%	2.1%	7.65	4.30	+0.1
2015	30	AAA MLE	Olmecas de Tabasco	23	23	161	653	161	25	9	100%	7.0	21.7%	4.0%	17.7%	1.5%	2.63	2.60	—
2015	30	AAA RAW	Olmecas de Tabasco	23	23	161	653	161	25	9	100%	7.0	24.7%	3.8%	20.8%	1.4%	2.63	2.29	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	30	18	138	556	114	12	8	60%	4.6	18.0%	2.3%	15.8%	1.5%	3.12	2.70	—
2016	31	AAA RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	30	18	138	556	114	12	8	60%	4.6	20.5%	2.2%	18.3%	1.4%	3.12	2.46	—
2017	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	102	428	77	22	11	67%	4.2	16.4%	5.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.50	3.91	+1.2
2017	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	102	428	77	22	11	67%	4.2	18.0%	5.1%	12.9%	2.6%	4.50	3.64	+1.6
2019	34	AAA MLE	Leones de Yucatan	23	23	148	587	122	17	6	100%	6.4	18.3%	3.0%	15.2%	1.4%	2.26	2.72	—
2019	34	AAA RAW	Leones de Yucatan	23	23	148	587	122	17	6	100%	6.4	20.8%	2.9%	17.9%	1.0%	2.26	2.32	—
2020	35	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	9	0	14	53	12	3	0	0%	1.6	22.6%	5.7%	17.0%	0.0%	1.26	1.91	+0.5
2020	35	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	9	0	14	53	12	3	0	0%	1.6	22.6%	5.7%	17.0%	0.0%	1.26	2.05	+0.4
2021	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	59	260	57	14	8	0%	1.2	21.4%	5.4%	15.9%	2.8%	4.91	3.51	+0.7
2021	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	59	260	57	14	8	0%	1.2	21.9%	5.4%	16.5%	3.1%	4.91	3.65	+0.6
2022	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	147	591	123	22	14	96%	6.1	18.5%	3.9%	14.5%	2.7%	3.97	3.51	+2.5
2022	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	147	591	123	22	14	96%	6.1	20.8%	3.7%	17.1%	2.4%	3.97	3.11	+3.3
2023	38	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	33	16	114	524	94	32	21	48%	3.5	15.4%	5.5%	9.9%	4.4%	6.95	4.91	—
2023	38	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	33	16	114	524	94	32	21	48%	3.5	15.4%	5.5%	9.9%	4.4%	6.95	4.91	—
2023	38	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	33	16	114	524	94	32	21	48%	3.5	17.9%	6.1%	11.8%	4.0%	6.95	4.69	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			69	6	112	505	91	33	17	9%	1.6	18.0%	6.5%	11.5%	3.4%	6.11	4.33	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	41	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	42	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	142	599	101	53	22	100%	7.5	16.9%	8.8%	8.1%	3.6%	4.96	5.15	-0.4
2027	42	MLB CTX	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.9%	8.8%	8.1%	3.6%	4.96	5.15	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	6	112	505	91	33	17	9%	1.6	18.0%	6.5%	11.5%	3.4%	6.11	4.25	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		123	11	200	902	162	59	30	9%	1.6	18.0%	6.5%	11.5%	3.4%	6.11	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		223	121	903	3749	690	156	87	54%	4.0	18.4%	4.2%	14.2%	2.3%	3.86	3.34	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	27	200	830	153	35	19	54%	4.0	18.4%	4.2%	14.2%	2.3%	3.86	3.34	+0.3

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
César Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	18.1%	8.1%	3.2%	—	5.15	16.9%	8.1%	142	+0.43	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	43
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	41
Walter Silva R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	40	SP	3.67	10.4%	7.6%	0.9%	.292	5.03	9.7%	0.9%	118	+1.36	3.67	453	35
Pablo Ortega R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	13.4%	6.0%	3.1%	.298	5.20	12.4%	4.2%	14	+0.78	4.01	375	34
Rafael Diaz R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	44	SW	4.07	17.3%	10.5%	2.0%	.301	3.17	16.2%	9.4%	152	-0.90	3.04	215	33
Mauricio Lara L 2019 · 4.96 FIP	40	SP	4.96	12.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	444	24
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	15
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	7
Raul Valdes L 2019 · 4.53 FIP	41	SP	4.53	28.8%	8.1%	5.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	0

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	84	17.7%	8.2%	1.31	5.15
Philip Humber ('13)	1.9	93	16.7%	7.9%	1.29	5.31
Sal Romano ('21)	1.4	92	17.2%	8.9%	1.34	5.23
Chad Bettis ('19)	3.0	86	16.2%	7.9%	1.18	5.12
Boof Bonser ('10)	2.1	104	18.2%	7.2%	1.36	5.18
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.2	77	18.0%	8.1%	1.48	4.96

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
César Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	18.1%	8.1%	3.2%	—	5.15	16.9%	8.1%	142	+0.43	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	43
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	41
Walter Silva R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	40	SP	3.67	10.4%	7.6%	0.9%	.292	5.03	9.7%	0.9%	118	+1.36	3.67	453	35
Pablo Ortega R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	40	SP	4.42	13.4%	6.0%	3.1%	.298	5.20	12.4%	4.2%	14	+0.78	4.01	375	34
Rafael Diaz R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	44	SW	4.07	17.3%	10.5%	2.0%	.301	3.17	16.2%	9.4%	152	-0.90	3.04	215	33
Mauricio Lara L 2019 · 4.96 FIP	40	SP	4.96	12.3%	6.8%	3.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	444	24
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	15
Juan Antonio Pena L 2019 · 4.56 FIP	41	SW	4.56	13.7%	14.1%	1.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	7
Raul Valdes L 2019 · 4.53 FIP	41	SP	4.53	28.8%	8.1%	5.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	0

César Valdez

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps