Hector Garanzuay

Pos2B

B/TL/R

Born1980-10-06

Age (2027)46

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	34	AAAAcereros del …	325	.274/.345/.344	3	2	59	—	.241/.294/.293
2016	35	AAAAcereros del …	204	.281/.376/.374	3	2	65	—	.231/.289/.297
2017	36	AAAPericos de Pu…	67	.361/.400/.508	1	0	101	—	.302/.323/.429

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	24	AAA	Acereros de Monclova	—	383	321	97	23	2	5	45	38	4	4	5	302	395	433	828	131	327	10	12	361	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AAA	Acereros de Monclova	—	425	366	121	21	2	12	46	53	3	4	3	331	410	497	907	167	360	12	11	394	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	442	389	114	28	1	6	38	52	2	10	9	293	359	416	775	123	324	12	9	338	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	438	368	102	15	1	9	45	54	7	13	5	277	367	397	763	120	294	12	10	333	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	476	412	126	35	4	8	46	47	2	5	6	306	378	468	847	163	330	10	10	364	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	394	326	81	16	0	6	42	47	3	2	7	248	340	353	692	104	266	12	11	299	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	411	347	89	28	1	9	46	56	3	7	3	256	348	421	769	164	280	14	11	333	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	424	375	124	22	2	10	36	54	2	5	6	331	392	480	872	149	363	13	8	378	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	426	370	121	21	1	7	36	42	2	2	4	327	390	446	836	119	350	10	8	359	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	325	285	78	11	0	3	26	39	5	2	4	274	345	344	689	70	305	12	8	308	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	35	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	204	171	48	7	0	3	24	21	2	2	0	281	376	374	750	94	298	10	12	333	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	36	AAA	Pericos de Puebla	—	67	61	22	6	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	361	400	508	908	148	404	13	6	390	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	24	AAA MLE	Acereros de Monclova	—	383	335	96	21	2	4	31	46	4	4	5	287	354	397	751	110	306	12	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AAA MLE	Acereros de Monclova	—	425	384	116	19	2	9	28	64	3	4	3	302	354	432	787	130	332	15	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	442	404	108	25	1	4	23	62	2	10	9	267	310	364	674	97	295	14	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	438	386	98	13	1	7	27	65	7	13	5	254	314	347	661	93	265	15	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	476	428	119	31	4	6	30	56	2	5	6	278	328	411	739	133	295	12	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	394	342	75	14	0	4	26	58	3	2	7	219	280	295	576	76	226	15	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	411	365	82	24	1	6	28	72	3	7	3	225	285	345	631	121	247	18	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	424	391	112	19	2	8	20	67	2	5	6	286	324	407	731	120	314	16	5	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	426	383	109	18	1	5	23	54	2	2	4	285	328	376	704	91	297	13	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	325	294	71	9	0	2	17	44	5	2	4	241	294	293	587	51	264	14	5	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	35	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	204	182	42	6	0	2	13	26	2	2	0	231	289	297	586	66	243	13	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	36	AAA MLE	Pericos de Puebla	—	67	63	19	5	0	1	2	12	0	0	0	302	323	429	752	127	342	18	3	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	AAA MLE	Acereros de Monclova	—	383	335	96	21	2	4	31	46	4	4	5	287	354	397	751	110	319	12	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	AAA RAW	Acereros de Monclova	—	383	321	97	23	2	5	45	38	4	4	5	302	395	433	828	131	327	10	12	361	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AAA MLE	Acereros de Monclova	—	425	384	116	19	2	9	28	64	3	4	3	302	354	432	787	130	342	15	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AAA RAW	Acereros de Monclova	—	425	366	121	21	2	12	46	53	3	4	3	331	410	497	907	167	360	12	11	394	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	442	404	108	25	1	4	23	62	2	10	9	267	310	364	674	97	306	14	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	442	389	114	28	1	6	38	52	2	10	9	293	359	416	775	123	324	12	9	338	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	438	386	98	13	1	7	27	65	7	13	5	254	314	347	661	93	280	15	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	438	368	102	15	1	9	45	54	7	13	5	277	367	397	763	120	294	12	10	333	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	476	428	119	31	4	6	30	56	2	5	6	278	328	411	739	133	308	12	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	476	412	126	35	4	8	46	47	2	5	6	306	378	468	847	163	330	10	10	364	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	394	342	75	14	0	4	26	58	3	2	7	219	280	295	576	76	246	15	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	394	326	81	16	0	6	42	47	3	2	7	248	340	353	692	104	266	12	11	299	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	411	365	82	24	1	6	28	72	3	7	3	225	285	345	631	121	261	18	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	411	347	89	28	1	9	46	56	3	7	3	256	348	421	769	164	280	14	11	333	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	424	391	112	19	2	8	20	67	2	5	6	286	324	407	731	120	326	16	5	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	424	375	124	22	2	10	36	54	2	5	6	331	392	480	872	149	363	13	8	378	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	426	383	109	18	1	5	23	54	2	2	4	285	328	376	704	91	316	13	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	426	370	121	21	1	7	36	42	2	2	4	327	390	446	836	119	350	10	8	359	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	325	294	71	9	0	2	17	44	5	2	4	241	294	293	587	51	275	14	5	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	325	285	78	11	0	3	26	39	5	2	4	274	345	344	689	70	305	12	8	308	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	35	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	204	182	42	6	0	2	13	26	2	2	0	231	289	297	586	66	253	13	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	35	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	204	171	48	7	0	3	24	21	2	2	0	281	376	374	750	94	298	10	12	333	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	36	AAA MLE	Pericos de Puebla	—	67	63	19	5	0	1	2	12	0	0	0	302	323	429	752	127	353	18	3	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	36	AAA RAW	Pericos de Puebla	—	67	61	22	6	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	361	400	508	908	148	404	13	6	390	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	24	AAA MLE	Acereros de Monclova	—	383	345	96	21	2	4	31	46	4	4	5	278	354	386	740	107	306	12	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	25	AAA MLE	Acereros de Monclova	—	425	391	116	19	2	9	28	64	3	4	3	297	354	425	779	128	332	15	7	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	26	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	442	414	108	25	1	4	23	62	2	10	9	261	310	355	665	94	295	14	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	27	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	438	401	98	13	1	7	27	65	7	13	5	244	314	334	648	90	265	15	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	28	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	476	441	119	31	4	6	30	56	2	5	6	270	328	399	727	129	295	12	6	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	29	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	394	362	75	14	0	4	26	58	3	2	7	207	280	279	559	72	226	15	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	30	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	411	377	82	24	1	6	28	72	3	7	3	218	285	334	620	117	247	18	7	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	32	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	424	399	112	19	2	8	20	67	2	5	6	281	324	398	723	118	314	16	5	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	33	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	426	398	109	18	1	5	23	54	2	2	4	274	328	362	690	88	297	13	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	34	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	325	300	71	9	0	2	17	44	5	2	4	237	294	287	581	50	264	14	5	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	35	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	204	187	42	6	0	2	13	26	2	2	0	225	289	289	578	64	243	13	6	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	36	AAA MLE	Pericos de Puebla	—	67	65	19	5	0	1	2	12	0	0	0	292	323	415	738	123	342	18	3	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	4415	3957	1047	204	14	58	268	626	35	56	52	265	317	367	684	103	298	14	6	294	85	-79	-10	+0	+16	+96	2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	155	30	2	9	39	92	5	8	8	266	317	370	688	105	299	14	6	294	85	-12	-2	+0	+2	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAAPericos de Puebla · 67 PAwOBA .385 → .318 (−67)K% 13.4% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.43%	÷0.920	×1.200	—	—	17.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.97%	÷1.033	×0.690	—	×0.940	3.75%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.85%	÷1.055	×0.930	×1.027	×0.940	24.55%
Doubles /BIP	11.54%	÷0.946	×0.830	×1.027	×0.940	9.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.114	×0.920	×1.027	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.92%	÷0.910	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.39%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 111, 2B 89, 3B 123, K 84, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 37 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .385 → .318; ISO .148 → .121; BABIP .404 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAAcereros del Norte · 204 PAwOBA .327 → .265 (−62)K% 10.3% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.29%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	12.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.78%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.61%
HBP% /PA	0.98%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.87%
Singles /BIP	25.33%	÷1.011	×0.930	×0.965	×0.940	21.13%
Doubles /BIP	4.67%	÷1.013	×0.830	×0.965	×0.940	3.47%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.124	×0.920	×0.965	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.00%	÷0.941	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.40%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 125, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .327 → .265; ISO .094 → .073; BABIP .298 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAAcereros del Norte · 325 PAwOBA .302 → .256 (−45)K% 12.0% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.00%	÷1.063	×1.200	—	—	13.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷0.979	×0.690	—	×0.940	5.10%
HBP% /PA	1.54%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.36%
Singles /BIP	26.02%	÷0.988	×0.930	×1.005	×0.940	23.14%
Doubles /BIP	4.47%	÷1.051	×0.830	×1.005	×0.940	3.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.005	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.22%	÷1.052	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.76%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 113, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .302 → .256; ISO .070 → .051; BABIP .305 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAAcereros del Norte · 426 PAwOBA .354 → .297 (−56)K% 9.9% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.86%	÷0.939	×1.200	—	—	12.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.45%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×0.940	5.31%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.41%
Singles /BIP	28.05%	÷1.019	×0.930	×1.014	×0.940	24.41%
Doubles /BIP	6.40%	÷0.995	×0.830	×1.014	×0.940	5.09%
Triples /BIP	0.30%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.014	×0.940	0.23%
Home runs /BIP	2.13%	÷0.952	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.47%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 88, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .354 → .297; ISO .119 → .094; BABIP .350 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAAcereros del Norte · 424 PAwOBA .368 → .311 (−57)K% 12.7% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.74%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	15.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.78%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×0.942	4.74%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.42%
Singles /BIP	28.04%	÷1.004	×0.930	×1.010	×0.942	24.71%
Doubles /BIP	6.85%	÷0.942	×0.830	×1.010	×0.942	5.74%
Triples /BIP	0.62%	÷1.066	×0.920	×1.010	×0.942	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	3.12%	÷0.901	×0.700	—	×0.942	2.28%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 113, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .368 → .311; ISO .149 → .122; BABIP .363 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAAcereros del Norte · 411 PAwOBA .327 → .267 (−59)K% 13.6% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.63%	÷0.928	×1.200	—	—	17.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.95%	÷1.083	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.71%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.66%
Singles /BIP	17.53%	÷0.996	×0.930	×1.043	×0.962	16.42%
Doubles /BIP	9.62%	÷1.016	×0.830	×1.043	×0.962	7.88%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.043	×0.962	0.28%
Home runs /BIP	3.09%	÷1.126	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.85%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 86, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .327 → .267; ISO .164 → .124; BABIP .280 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAAcereros del Norte · 394 PAwOBA .298 → .247 (−51)K% 11.9% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.93%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	14.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.41%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.61%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.70%
Singles /BIP	21.15%	÷1.020	×0.930	×0.984	×0.972	18.45%
Doubles /BIP	5.73%	÷1.016	×0.830	×0.984	×0.972	4.48%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.984	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.15%	÷1.170	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.25%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .298 → .247; ISO .104 → .078; BABIP .266 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAAcereros del Norte · 476 PAwOBA .354 → .311 (−42)K% 9.9% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.87%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	11.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.24%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	6.26%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.39%
Singles /BIP	21.64%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.021	×0.982	20.18%
Doubles /BIP	9.59%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.021	×0.982	7.98%
Triples /BIP	1.10%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.021	×0.982	1.01%
Home runs /BIP	2.19%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.51%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .354 → .311; ISO .163 → .137; BABIP .330 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).