Jose Castaneda

Pos3B

B/TR/R

Born1984-08-15

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2016

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2014	29	AAASaraperos de …	313	.273/.340/.385	5	2	61	—	.232/.281/.320
2015	30	AAAOlmecas de Ta…	192	.206/.286/.335	6	1	24	—	.160/.222/.246
2016	31	AAAAcereros del …	47	.167/.239/.238	1	1	-4	—	.136/.174/.205

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	20	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	17	15	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	1	200	250	267	517	67	273	29	6	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	AAA	Vaqueros Laguna	—	41	40	7	1	0	0	0	11	0	0	0	175	175	200	375	25	241	27	0	164	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AAA	Vaqueros Laguna	—	132	114	28	7	0	2	15	17	3	3	0	246	348	360	708	114	274	13	11	326	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA	Vaqueros Laguna	—	313	269	74	12	0	2	22	60	7	0	2	275	346	342	688	67	346	19	7	301	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA	Vaqueros Laguna	—	128	111	34	2	0	0	9	15	5	2	0	306	384	324	708	18	354	12	7	324	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA	Dorados de Chihuahua	—	228	195	53	13	0	3	23	44	2	0	1	272	355	385	739	113	336	19	10	324	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	328	296	90	19	2	9	19	82	4	1	2	304	354	473	827	169	388	25	6	356	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA	Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz	—	412	359	92	13	0	8	26	99	12	4	3	256	327	359	687	103	331	24	6	302	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA	Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz	—	407	367	87	18	1	9	23	76	6	2	5	237	293	365	658	128	271	19	6	288	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	313	275	75	14	1	5	26	50	2	2	2	273	340	385	725	113	314	16	8	318	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	192	170	35	4	0	6	16	51	3	1	2	206	286	335	621	129	257	27	8	279	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA	Acereros del Norte	—	47	42	7	0	0	1	4	15	0	1	1	167	239	238	477	71	231	32	9	219	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	20	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	17	15	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	1	200	250	267	517	67	257	35	6	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	41	40	7	1	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	175	175	200	375	25	232	32	0	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	132	118	27	6	0	1	11	20	3	3	0	229	311	305	616	76	271	15	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	313	275	75	11	0	2	16	72	7	0	2	273	329	335	663	62	337	23	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	128	114	33	2	0	0	6	18	5	2	0	289	352	307	659	18	332	14	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	Dorados de Chihuahua	—	228	203	51	13	0	2	15	51	2	0	1	251	309	345	654	94	306	22	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	328	304	77	15	2	7	11	103	4	1	2	253	288	385	673	132	336	31	3	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz	—	412	369	88	10	0	6	16	118	12	4	3	238	292	314	607	76	312	29	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz	—	407	375	80	15	1	7	15	88	6	2	5	213	255	315	570	101	244	22	4	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	313	284	66	11	1	4	17	62	2	2	2	232	281	320	601	88	268	20	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	192	175	28	3	0	4	11	63	3	1	2	160	222	246	468	86	214	33	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	47	44	6	0	0	1	2	18	0	1	1	136	174	205	378	68	200	38	4	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	17	15	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	1	200	250	267	517	67	300	35	6	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	AAA RAW	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	17	15	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	1	200	250	267	517	67	273	29	6	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	41	40	7	1	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	175	175	200	375	25	259	32	0	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	AAA RAW	Vaqueros Laguna	—	41	40	7	1	0	0	0	11	0	0	0	175	175	200	375	25	241	27	0	164	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	132	118	27	6	0	1	11	20	3	3	0	229	311	305	616	76	268	15	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AAA RAW	Vaqueros Laguna	—	132	114	28	7	0	2	15	17	3	3	0	246	348	360	708	114	274	13	11	326	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	313	275	75	11	0	2	16	72	7	0	2	273	329	335	663	62	361	23	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA RAW	Vaqueros Laguna	—	313	269	74	12	0	2	22	60	7	0	2	275	346	342	688	67	346	19	7	301	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	128	114	33	2	0	0	6	18	5	2	0	289	352	307	659	18	344	14	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA RAW	Vaqueros Laguna	—	128	111	34	2	0	0	9	15	5	2	0	306	384	324	708	18	354	12	7	324	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	Dorados de Chihuahua	—	228	203	51	13	0	2	15	51	2	0	1	251	309	345	654	94	325	22	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA RAW	Dorados de Chihuahua	—	228	195	53	13	0	3	23	44	2	0	1	272	355	385	739	113	336	19	10	324	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	328	304	77	15	2	7	11	103	4	1	2	253	288	385	673	132	354	31	3	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA RAW	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	328	296	90	19	2	9	19	82	4	1	2	304	354	473	827	169	388	25	6	356	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz	—	412	369	88	10	0	6	16	118	12	4	3	238	292	314	607	76	332	29	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA RAW	Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz	—	412	359	92	13	0	8	26	99	12	4	3	256	327	359	687	103	331	24	6	302	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz	—	407	375	80	15	1	7	15	88	6	2	5	213	255	315	570	101	255	22	4	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA RAW	Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz	—	407	367	87	18	1	9	23	76	6	2	5	237	293	365	658	128	271	19	6	288	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	313	284	66	11	1	4	17	62	2	2	2	232	281	320	601	88	281	20	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA RAW	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	313	275	75	14	1	5	26	50	2	2	2	273	340	385	725	113	314	16	8	318	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	192	175	28	3	0	4	11	63	3	1	2	160	222	246	468	86	222	33	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA RAW	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	192	170	35	4	0	6	16	51	3	1	2	206	286	335	621	129	257	27	8	279	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	47	44	6	0	0	1	2	18	0	1	1	136	174	205	378	68	200	38	4	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA RAW	Acereros del Norte	—	47	42	7	0	0	1	4	15	0	1	1	167	239	238	477	71	231	32	9	219	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	1	188	250	250	500	62	257	35	6	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	41	41	7	1	0	0	0	13	0	0	0	171	175	195	370	24	232	32	0	146	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	132	117	27	6	0	1	11	20	3	3	0	231	311	308	618	77	271	15	8	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	313	287	75	11	0	2	16	72	7	0	2	261	329	321	649	59	337	23	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Vaqueros Laguna	—	128	116	33	2	0	0	6	18	5	2	0	284	352	302	654	17	332	14	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	Dorados de Chihuahua	—	228	209	51	13	0	2	15	51	2	0	1	244	309	335	644	91	306	22	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	328	310	77	15	2	7	11	103	4	1	2	248	288	377	666	129	336	31	3	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz	—	412	381	88	10	0	6	16	118	12	4	3	231	292	304	597	73	312	29	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz	—	407	383	80	15	1	7	15	88	6	2	5	209	255	308	563	99	244	22	4	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Saraperos de Saltillo	—	313	291	66	11	1	4	17	62	2	2	2	227	281	313	593	86	268	20	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Olmecas de Tabasco	—	192	176	28	3	0	4	11	63	3	1	2	159	222	244	467	85	214	33	6	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Acereros del Norte	—	47	45	6	0	0	1	2	18	0	1	1	133	174	200	374	67	200	38	4	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	2558	2316	541	88	4	34	121	632	44	16	19	234	285	319	604	85	304	25	5	260	62	-115	-4	+0	+9	+55	-5.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	137	22	1	9	31	161	11	4	5	233	284	319	603	87	302	25	5	260	62	-29	-1	+0	+2	+14	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAAAcereros del Norte · 47 PAwOBA .214 → .162 (−52)K% 31.9% → 38.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.91%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	38.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.51%	÷1.059	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.011	×0.930	—	×0.952	19.45%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.013	×0.830	—	×0.952	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.124	×0.920	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.70%	÷0.941	×0.700	—	×0.952	2.62%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 125, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .214 → .162; ISO .071 → .049; BABIP .231 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAOlmecas de Tabasco · 192 PAwOBA .272 → .204 (−68)K% 26.6% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.56%	÷0.969	×1.200	—	—	32.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.33%	÷0.986	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.61%
HBP% /PA	1.56%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.41%
Singles /BIP	21.01%	÷1.017	×0.930	×0.976	×0.962	18.04%
Doubles /BIP	3.36%	÷1.011	×0.830	×0.976	×0.962	2.59%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.986	×0.920	×0.976	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.04%	÷1.011	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.36%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 97, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .272 → .204; ISO .129 → .086; BABIP .257 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 313 PAwOBA .311 → .258 (−53)K% 16.0% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.97%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	19.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.99%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.50%
HBP% /PA	0.64%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.58%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷1.036	×0.930	×1.013	×0.972	21.60%
Doubles /BIP	6.22%	÷1.076	×0.830	×1.013	×0.972	4.72%
Triples /BIP	0.44%	÷0.933	×0.920	×1.013	×0.972	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	2.22%	÷0.965	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.57%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 107, 2B 115, 3B 87, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .311 → .258; ISO .113 → .087; BABIP .314 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAARojos del Aguila de Veracruz · 407 PAwOBA .285 → .247 (−37)K% 18.7% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.67%	÷1.044	×1.200	—	—	21.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.65%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×0.982	3.79%
HBP% /PA	1.47%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.36%
Singles /BIP	20.27%	÷0.995	×0.930	×1.019	×0.982	18.95%
Doubles /BIP	6.19%	÷1.015	×0.830	×1.019	×0.982	5.06%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.019	×0.982	0.27%
Home runs /BIP	3.09%	÷0.867	×0.700	—	×0.982	2.45%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 109, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .285 → .247; ISO .128 → .106; BABIP .271 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAARojos del Aguila de Veracruz · 412 PAwOBA .295 → .260 (−35)K% 24.0% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.03%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	28.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.07%	÷1.087	×0.690	—	×0.992	3.82%
HBP% /PA	2.91%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.72%
Singles /BIP	27.31%	÷0.959	×0.930	×1.029	×0.992	27.04%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.125	×0.830	×1.029	×0.992	3.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.027	×0.920	×1.029	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.08%	÷1.014	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.11%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 92, 2B 125, 3B 105, K 101, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .295 → .260; ISO .103 → .075; BABIP .331 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAASaraperos de Saltillo · 328 PAwOBA .350 → .285 (−64)K% 25.0% → 31.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.00%	÷0.956	×1.200	—	—	31.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.49%	÷1.079	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.52%
HBP% /PA	1.22%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.15%
Singles /BIP	28.04%	÷1.049	×0.930	×1.004	×1.003	25.04%
Doubles /BIP	8.88%	÷1.008	×0.830	×1.004	×1.003	7.36%
Triples /BIP	0.93%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.004	×1.003	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	4.21%	÷0.920	×0.700	—	×1.003	3.21%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 110, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 91, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .350 → .285; ISO .169 → .131; BABIP .388 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAADorados de Chihuahua · 228 PAwOBA .316 → .280 (−36)K% 19.3% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.30%	÷1.038	×1.200	—	—	22.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.65%	÷1.039	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.52%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.84%
Singles /BIP	24.50%	÷1.072	×0.930	×1.041	×1.018	22.53%
Doubles /BIP	8.61%	÷0.961	×0.830	×1.041	×1.018	7.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.028	×0.920	×1.041	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.99%	÷1.129	×0.700	—	×1.018	1.25%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 106, K 108, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .316 → .280; ISO .113 → .096; BABIP .336 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAVaqueros Laguna · 128 PAwOBA .316 → .292 (−24)K% 11.7% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.72%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	14.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.03%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.01%
HBP% /PA	3.91%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	3.79%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.982	×1.033	31.45%
Doubles /BIP	2.08%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.982	×1.033	1.75%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.982	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.033	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .316 → .292; ISO .018 → .016; BABIP .354 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).