Pedro Álvarez

Pos3B

B/TL/R

Born1987-02-06

Age (2027)40

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2018

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2016	29	MLBBAL	376	.249/.324/.504	22	1	121	1.7
2017	30	AAABAL	595	.239/.296/.442	26	1	70	—	.209/.250/.386
2017	30	MLBBAL	34	.312/.353/.438	1	0	120	-1.0
2018	31	AAABAL	178	.285/.333/.467	8	0	82	—	.249/.282/.402
2018	31	MLBBAL	127	.180/.283/.414	8	0	87	0.3
2019	32	No MLB games played
2020	33	No MLB games played
2021	34	No MLB games played
2022	35	No MLB games played
2023	36	No MLB games played
2024	37	No MLB games played
2025	38	No MLB games played
2026	39	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2016-2018

Avg EV90

xwOBA83

Barrel%82

Speed23

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	22	AA	Altoona Curve	—	258	222	74	18	0	13	34	59	0	1	0	333	422	590	1.012	257	401	23	13	437	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	284	243	60	14	1	14	37	70	0	1	1	247	346	486	832	239	282	25	13	361	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	386	347	89	21	1	16	37	119	0	0	0	256	328	461	789	205	341	31	10	347	123	+10	+0	-3	+2	+8	1.9
2010	23	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	278	242	67	15	4	13	32	68	2	4	4	277	366	533	899	256	331	24	12	389	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	262	235	45	9	1	4	24	80	2	1	0	191	272	289	561	98	272	31	9	259	60	-12	+0	-1	+2	+6	-0.6
2011	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	148	125	32	5	1	5	22	42	0	0	1	256	367	432	799	176	342	28	15	357	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	A+	Bradenton Marauders	—	21	16	3	0	0	1	3	5	2	0	0	188	381	375	756	188	200	24	14	355	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	586	525	128	25	1	30	57	180	1	1	0	244	319	467	786	223	308	31	10	344	119	+13	+0	-4	+2	+13	2.5
2013	26	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	614	558	130	22	2	36	48	186	4	2	0	233	298	473	771	240	276	30	8	336	114	+10	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2014	27	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	445	398	92	13	1	18	45	113	2	8	3	231	312	405	717	173	277	25	10	321	101	+1	+0	-10	+2	+10	0.2
2015	28	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	491	437	106	18	0	27	48	131	2	2	0	243	320	469	789	227	279	27	10	345	116	+10	+0	-20	-9	+11	-0.8
2016	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	376	337	84	20	0	22	37	97	0	1	0	249	324	504	828	255	282	26	10	360	121	+9	+0	-2	+1	+8	1.7
2017	30	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	34	32	10	1	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	312	353	438	790	125	429	29	6	353	120	+1	+0	+0	-11	+1	-1.0
2017	30	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	595	547	131	31	1	26	42	137	2	1	0	239	296	442	739	203	271	23	7	323	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	127	111	20	2	0	8	16	36	0	0	0	180	283	414	698	234	179	28	13	310	87	-2	+0	+1	+1	+3	0.3
2018	31	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	178	165	47	6	0	8	11	42	1	0	0	285	333	467	800	182	336	24	6	352	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3321	2980	704	131	6	162	314	952	11	15	3	236	311	447	759	211	288	29	9	334	112	+48	+2	-40	-8	+72	7.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	22	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	258	235	71	16	0	11	21	72	0	1	0	302	359	511	870	209	382	28	8	376	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	284	259	53	11	1	12	21	99	0	1	1	205	264	394	658	189	262	35	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	386	348	89	20	1	17	36	119	0	0	0	256	326	466	791	210	341	31	9	350	123	+10	+0	-3	+2	+8	1.9
2010	23	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	278	252	58	13	3	11	22	85	2	4	4	230	297	437	734	206	297	31	8	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	262	236	45	9	1	4	23	80	2	1	0	191	268	288	556	97	272	31	9	257	60	-12	+0	-1	+2	+6	-0.6
2011	24	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	148	133	31	5	1	5	14	51	0	0	1	233	306	398	705	165	328	34	9	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	A+ MLE	Bradenton Marauders	—	21	17	3	0	0	1	2	7	2	0	0	176	333	353	686	176	167	33	10	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	586	531	129	24	1	32	51	180	1	1	0	243	310	473	783	230	308	31	9	344	119	+13	+0	-4	+2	+13	2.5
2013	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	614	565	132	21	2	39	41	186	4	2	0	234	290	485	775	251	276	30	7	336	114	+10	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2014	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	445	404	92	12	1	19	39	113	2	8	3	228	299	403	702	176	277	25	9	318	101	+1	+0	-10	+2	+10	0.2
2015	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	491	446	107	17	0	29	39	131	2	2	0	240	304	473	777	233	279	27	8	340	116	+10	+0	-20	-9	+11	-0.8
2016	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	376	338	82	20	0	20	36	97	0	1	0	243	316	479	795	237	282	26	10	346	121	+9	+0	-2	+1	+8	1.7
2017	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	34	32	10	1	0	1	2	10	0	0	0	312	353	438	790	125	429	29	6	346	120	+1	+0	+0	-11	+1	-1.0
2017	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	595	560	117	25	1	24	29	165	2	1	0	209	250	386	636	177	244	28	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	127	111	19	2	0	7	16	36	0	0	0	171	276	378	654	207	179	28	13	297	87	-2	+0	+1	+1	+3	0.3
2018	31	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	178	169	42	5	0	7	7	50	1	0	0	249	282	402	685	154	305	28	4	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	542	494	124	28	1	23	42	171	0	2	1	251	310	451	761	200	330	32	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	542	465	134	32	1	27	71	129	0	2	1	288	382	535	918	247	340	24	13	397	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	664	600	148	33	4	28	58	204	2	4	4	247	315	455	770	208	323	31	9	336	114	+11	-1	-3	+2	+14	2.5
2010	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	664	589	156	36	5	29	69	187	2	4	4	265	344	491	835	226	337	28	10	365	114	+11	-1	-3	+2	+14	2.5
2011	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	431	386	78	13	2	10	39	138	4	1	1	202	282	324	606	122	285	32	9	275	72	-14	-0	-1	+2	+9	-0.5
2011	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	431	376	80	14	2	10	49	127	4	1	1	213	310	340	650	128	292	29	11	297	72	-14	-0	-1	+2	+9	-0.5
2012	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	586	531	129	24	1	32	51	180	1	1	0	243	310	473	783	230	301	31	9	344	119	+13	+0	-4	+2	+13	2.5
2012	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	586	525	128	25	1	30	57	180	1	1	0	244	319	467	786	223	308	31	10	344	119	+13	+0	-4	+2	+13	2.5
2013	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	614	565	132	21	2	39	41	186	4	2	0	234	290	485	775	251	270	30	7	336	114	+10	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2013	26	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	614	558	130	22	2	36	48	186	4	2	0	233	298	473	771	240	276	30	8	336	114	+10	+0	-1	+2	+13	2.6
2014	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	445	404	92	12	1	19	39	113	2	8	3	228	299	403	702	176	268	25	9	318	101	+1	+0	-10	+2	+10	0.2
2014	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	445	398	92	13	1	18	45	113	2	8	3	231	312	405	717	173	277	25	10	321	101	+1	+0	-10	+2	+10	0.2
2015	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	491	446	107	17	0	29	39	131	2	2	0	240	304	473	777	233	269	27	8	340	116	+10	+0	-20	-9	+11	-0.8
2015	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	491	437	106	18	0	27	48	131	2	2	0	243	320	469	789	227	279	27	10	345	116	+10	+0	-20	-9	+11	-0.8
2016	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	376	338	82	20	0	20	36	97	0	1	0	243	316	479	795	237	278	26	10	346	121	+9	+0	-2	+1	+8	1.7
2016	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	376	337	84	20	0	22	37	97	0	1	0	249	324	504	828	255	282	26	10	360	121	+9	+0	-2	+1	+8	1.7
2017	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	629	592	127	26	1	25	31	175	2	1	0	215	256	389	645	174	258	28	5	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	629	579	141	32	1	27	44	147	2	1	0	244	299	442	741	199	279	23	7	325	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	305	280	61	7	0	14	23	86	1	0	0	218	280	393	672	175	260	28	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	305	276	67	8	0	16	27	78	1	0	0	243	312	446	758	203	279	26	9	335	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	542	495	124	28	1	23	42	171	0	2	1	251	310	451	760	200	319	32	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	664	599	148	33	4	28	58	204	2	4	4	247	315	456	771	209	323	31	9	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	431	385	78	13	2	10	39	138	4	1	1	203	282	325	607	122	286	32	9	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	586	529	129	24	1	32	51	180	1	1	0	244	310	474	785	231	308	31	9	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	614	564	132	21	2	39	41	186	4	2	0	234	290	486	776	252	276	30	7	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	445	401	92	12	1	19	39	113	2	8	3	229	299	406	705	177	277	25	9	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	491	447	107	17	0	29	39	131	2	2	0	239	304	472	776	233	279	27	8	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	376	337	82	20	0	20	36	97	0	1	0	243	316	481	796	237	282	26	10	346	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	629	591	127	26	1	25	31	175	2	1	0	215	256	389	645	174	254	28	5	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	305	278	61	7	0	14	23	86	1	0	0	219	280	396	675	176	253	28	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3321	2980	704	131	6	162	314	952	11	15	3	236	311	447	759	211	288	29	9	334	103	+48	+2	-40	-8	+72	7.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	138	26	1	32	61	186	2	3	1	237	311	449	760	213	288	29	9	334	103	+9	+0	-8	-2	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5083	4636	1080	201	12	239	399	1481	18	22	9	233	296	436	732	203	286	29	8	321	103	+48	+2	-40	-8	+72	7.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	139	26	2	31	51	189	2	3	1	234	297	442	739	207	286	29	8	321	103	+9	+0	-8	-2	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 178 PAwOBA .342 → .289 (−53)K% 23.6% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.60%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	28.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.62%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×0.962	3.74%
HBP% /PA	0.56%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.51%
Singles /BIP	26.83%	÷0.984	×0.930	×1.036	×0.962	25.28%
Doubles /BIP	4.88%	÷1.063	×0.830	×1.036	×0.962	3.80%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.036	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.50%	÷0.964	×0.840	—	×0.962	5.45%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .342 → .289; ISO .182 → .147; BABIP .336 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANorfolk Tides · 595 PAwOBA .315 → .271 (−44)K% 23.0% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.03%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	27.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.72%	÷0.948	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.76%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.31%
Singles /BIP	17.80%	÷0.989	×0.930	×1.026	×0.972	16.70%
Doubles /BIP	7.56%	÷1.001	×0.830	×1.026	×0.972	6.26%
Triples /BIP	0.24%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.026	×0.972	0.21%
Home runs /BIP	6.34%	÷0.866	×0.840	—	×0.972	5.98%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 98, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .315 → .271; ISO .203 → .180; BABIP .271 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 148 PAwOBA .343 → .308 (−35)K% 28.4% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.38%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	34.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.84%	÷0.978	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.49%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.30%	÷1.008	×0.930	×0.999	×1.048	24.43%
Doubles /BIP	6.02%	÷0.927	×0.830	×0.999	×1.048	5.65%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷0.984	×0.970	×0.999	×1.048	1.24%
Home runs /BIP	6.02%	÷0.955	×0.840	—	×1.048	5.56%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 102, 2B 85, 3B 97, K 99, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .343 → .308; ISO .176 → .165; BABIP .342 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 A+Bradenton Marauders · 21 PAwOBA .347 → .266 (−80)K% 23.8% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.81%	÷1.019	×1.420	—	—	33.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.049	×0.750	—	×0.988	10.09%
HBP% /PA	9.52%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	8.75%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.067	×0.920	—	×0.988	15.49%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.104	×0.960	—	×0.988	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷1.114	×0.880	—	×0.988	7.10%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 113, 2B 121, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .347 → .266; ISO .188 → .134; BABIP .200 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 278 PAwOBA .379 → .318 (−62)K% 24.5% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.46%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	30.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.79%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.82%
HBP% /PA	0.72%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.71%
Singles /BIP	20.11%	÷1.067	×0.930	×1.001	×1.050	18.44%
Doubles /BIP	8.62%	÷0.981	×0.830	×1.001	×1.050	7.67%
Triples /BIP	2.30%	÷1.148	×0.970	×1.001	×1.050	2.04%
Home runs /BIP	7.47%	÷1.048	×0.840	—	×1.050	6.29%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 113, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .379 → .318; ISO .256 → .215; BABIP .331 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 284 PAwOBA .352 → .287 (−65)K% 24.6% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.65%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	35.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.62%	÷1.000	×0.630	—	×1.012	7.41%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.92%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.023	×1.012	17.44%
Doubles /BIP	8.09%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.023	×1.012	6.95%
Triples /BIP	0.58%	÷1.000	×0.800	×1.023	×1.012	0.48%
Home runs /BIP	8.09%	÷1.000	×0.900	—	×1.012	7.37%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .352 → .287; ISO .239 → .202; BABIP .282 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAltoona Curve · 258 PAwOBA .424 → .376 (−47)K% 22.9% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.87%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	27.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.24%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	8.20%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.38%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.990	×1.042	26.39%
Doubles /BIP	11.04%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.990	×1.042	9.79%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.990	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.98%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.042	6.48%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .424 → .376; ISO .257 → .217; BABIP .401 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).