Steve Tolleson

Pos2B

B/TR/R

Born1983-11-01

Age (2027)43

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2016

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2014	30	AAATOR	84	.236/.345/.333	1	6	55	—	.211/.286/.303
2014	30	MLBTOR	189	.253/.310/.371	3	3	87	0.1
2015	31	AAATOR	34	.133/.235/.133	0	0	-10	—	.097/.176/.097
2015	31	MLBTOR	45	.268/.333/.439	0	2	116	0.2
2016	32	AAAKC	30	.083/.267/.083	0	0	-16	—	.077/.200/.077
2017	33	No MLB games played
2018	34	No MLB games played
2019	35	No MLB games played
2020	36	No MLB games played
2021	37	No MLB games played
2022	38	No MLB games played
2023	39	No MLB games played
2024	40	No MLB games played
2025	41	No MLB games played
2026	42	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	21	A	Beloit Snappers	—	125	102	18	2	0	3	17	23	3	3	0	176	311	284	596	108	197	18	14	277	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	ROK	Elizabethton Twins	—	73	56	18	6	1	2	11	4	3	2	1	321	457	571	1.029	250	320	5	15	432	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	186	157	42	8	1	4	22	24	1	3	1	268	361	408	769	140	286	13	12	336	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A	Beloit Snappers	—	204	171	49	8	2	2	27	34	2	7	9	287	390	392	782	105	348	17	13	350	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	571	487	139	24	4	5	79	97	3	27	10	285	388	382	770	97	347	17	14	352	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	397	343	103	28	1	9	44	74	3	12	6	300	385	466	851	166	357	19	11	373	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	394	352	95	17	1	6	36	52	2	7	6	270	341	375	716	105	300	13	9	322	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	173	151	39	10	2	2	16	20	4	6	2	258	345	391	736	132	285	12	9	329	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	53	49	14	3	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	286	340	408	748	122	333	17	8	335	115	+1	+0	-1	+4	+1	0.5
2010	26	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	339	292	97	17	3	9	37	50	4	8	2	332	414	503	918	171	374	15	11	400	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA	Tucson Padres	—	557	487	134	27	2	9	60	93	5	24	5	275	361	394	755	119	321	17	11	339	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	76	71	13	3	0	2	4	17	0	1	0	183	227	310	537	127	212	22	5	237	43	-5	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
2012	28	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	193	162	45	8	0	1	23	32	0	3	2	278	368	346	713	68	328	17	12	316	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	473	392	113	28	1	8	59	91	5	14	5	288	388	426	814	138	349	19	12	355	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	189	170	43	7	2	3	12	49	2	3	1	253	310	371	680	118	336	26	6	298	87	-3	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.1
2014	30	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	84	72	17	2	1	1	12	13	0	6	1	236	345	333	679	97	276	15	14	314	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	45	41	11	5	1	0	4	9	0	2	0	268	333	439	772	171	344	20	9	341	116	+1	+0	-1	+0	+1	0.2
2015	31	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	34	30	4	0	0	0	2	9	2	0	0	133	235	133	369		190	26	6	191	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	30	24	2	0	0	0	6	6	0	0	0	83	267	83	350		111	20	20	200	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	363	331	81	18	3	6	24	84	2	6	1	245	300	372	671	127	310	23	7	296	87	-6	+1	-4	+6	+8	0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	21	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	—	125	107	15	2	0	2	12	31	3	3	0	140	246	215	461	75	169	25	10	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	ROK MLE	Elizabethton Twins	—	73	60	17	5	1	2	7	6	3	2	1	283	386	500	886	217	259	8	10	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	186	162	39	8	1	4	17	34	1	3	1	241	317	377	693	136	257	18	9	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	—	204	180	45	7	2	2	18	46	2	7	9	250	325	344	669	94	308	23	9	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	571	508	123	22	3	4	58	138	3	27	10	242	323	321	644	79	322	24	10	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	397	357	98	25	1	7	30	90	3	12	6	275	336	409	745	134	338	23	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	394	364	86	14	1	5	24	62	2	7	6	236	287	321	609	85	267	16	6	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	173	156	37	9	2	2	11	24	4	6	2	237	304	359	663	122	261	14	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	53	49	14	3	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	286	340	408	748	122	333	17	8	338	115	+1	+0	-1	+4	+1	0.5
2010	26	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	339	304	86	15	3	8	25	62	4	8	2	283	345	431	776	148	319	18	7	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA MLE	Tucson Padres	—	557	505	110	21	2	7	42	128	5	24	5	218	284	309	593	91	271	23	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	76	71	13	3	0	2	4	17	0	1	0	183	227	310	537	127	212	22	5	232	43	-5	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.3
2012	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	193	170	42	7	0	1	15	38	0	3	2	247	308	306	614	59	286	20	8	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	473	409	102	23	1	7	42	107	5	14	5	249	327	362	689	112	296	23	9	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	189	170	43	7	2	3	12	49	2	3	1	253	310	371	680	118	336	26	6	297	87	-3	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.1
2014	30	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	84	76	16	2	1	1	8	17	0	6	1	211	286	303	588	92	248	20	10	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	45	41	11	5	1	0	4	9	0	2	0	268	333	439	772	171	344	20	9	340	116	+1	+0	-1	+0	+1	0.2
2015	31	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	34	31	3	0	0	0	1	11	2	0	0	97	176	97	273		172	32	3	154	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	30	26	2	0	0	0	4	7	0	0	0	77	200	77	277		97	23	13	145	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	198	167	32	7	1	4	19	37	6	5	1	192	297	317	614	126	222	19	10	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	198	158	36	8	1	5	28	27	6	5	1	228	365	386	751	158	246	14	14	334	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	342	82	14	3	5	35	80	3	10	10	240	316	342	658	102	295	21	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	390	328	91	16	3	6	49	58	3	10	10	277	376	399	776	122	317	15	13	344	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	571	508	123	22	3	4	58	138	3	27	10	242	323	321	644	79	324	24	10	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ RAW	Fort Myers Miracle	—	571	487	139	24	4	5	79	97	3	27	10	285	388	382	770	97	347	17	14	352	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	397	357	98	25	1	7	30	90	3	12	6	275	336	409	745	134	346	23	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA RAW	New Britain Rock Cats	—	397	343	103	28	1	9	44	74	3	12	6	300	385	466	851	166	357	19	11	373	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	567	519	123	23	3	7	36	87	6	13	8	237	294	333	627	96	270	15	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	567	503	134	27	3	8	52	72	6	13	8	266	342	380	722	113	295	13	9	324	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	353	100	18	3	9	29	71	4	8	2	283	345	428	772	144	331	18	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	392	341	111	20	3	10	41	59	4	8	2	326	404	490	894	164	369	15	10	391	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA MLE	Tucson Padres	—	557	505	110	21	2	7	42	128	5	24	5	218	284	309	593	91	275	23	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA RAW	Tucson Padres	—	557	487	134	27	2	9	60	93	5	24	5	275	361	394	755	119	321	17	11	339	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	269	241	55	10	0	3	19	55	0	4	2	228	285	307	592	79	277	20	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	269	233	58	11	0	3	27	49	0	4	2	249	327	335	662	86	296	18	10	294	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	473	409	102	23	1	7	42	107	5	14	5	249	327	362	689	112	314	23	9	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	473	392	113	28	1	8	59	91	5	14	5	288	388	426	814	138	349	19	12	355	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	273	246	59	9	3	4	20	66	2	9	2	240	302	350	652	110	311	24	7	282	77	-7	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
2014	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	273	242	60	9	3	4	24	62	2	9	2	248	321	360	680	112	316	23	9	303	77	-7	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
2015	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	79	72	14	5	1	0	5	20	2	2	0	194	266	292	557	97	269	25	6	260	62	-4	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.2
2015	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	79	71	15	5	1	0	6	18	2	2	0	211	291	310	601	99	283	23	8	276	62	-4	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.2
2016	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	30	26	2	0	0	0	4	7	0	0	0	77	200	77	277		105	23	13	145	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	30	24	2	0	0	0	6	6	0	0	0	83	267	83	350		111	20	20	200	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	198	171	32	7	1	4	19	37	6	5	1	187	297	310	607	123	202	19	10	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	390	349	82	14	3	5	35	80	3	10	10	235	316	335	651	100	284	21	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	571	505	123	22	3	4	58	138	3	27	10	244	323	323	646	79	322	24	10	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	397	361	98	25	1	7	30	90	3	12	6	271	336	404	740	133	338	23	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	567	520	123	23	3	7	36	87	6	13	8	237	294	333	627	96	265	15	6	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	356	100	18	3	9	29	71	4	8	2	281	345	424	769	143	321	18	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	AAA MLE	Tucson Padres	—	557	505	110	21	2	7	42	128	5	24	5	218	284	309	593	91	271	23	8	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	269	248	55	10	0	3	19	55	0	4	2	222	285	298	583	77	265	20	7	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	473	423	102	23	1	7	42	107	5	14	5	241	327	350	677	109	296	23	9	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	273	249	59	9	3	4	20	66	2	9	2	237	302	345	648	108	309	24	7	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	79	72	14	5	1	0	5	20	2	2	0	194	266	292	557	97	270	25	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	—	30	26	2	0	0	0	4	7	0	0	0	77	200	77	277		97	23	13	145	-16	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	363	331	81	18	3	6	24	84	2	6	1	245	300	372	671	127	310	23	7	296	80	-6	+1	-4	+6	+8	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	145	32	5	11	43	150	4	11	2	245	300	371	671	126	309	23	7	296	80	-10	+1	-7	+11	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4196	3745	900	177	21	57	339	886	39	128	51	240	310	344	654	104	297	21	8	286	80	-6	+1	-4	+6	+8	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	139	27	3	9	53	137	6	20	8	240	310	343	653	103	296	21	8	286	80	-10	+1	-7	+11	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 30 PAwOBA .197 → .145 (−52)K% 20.0% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.040	×1.290	—	—	24.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.006	×0.710	—	×0.942	13.29%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.968	×0.900	—	×0.942	9.73%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.929	×0.810	—	×0.942	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.068	×0.810	—	×0.942	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.054	×0.780	—	×0.942	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 94, 2B 86, 3B 114, K 108, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .197 → .145; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .111 → .097. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAABuffalo Bisons · 34 PAwOBA .187 → .154 (−33)K% 26.5% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.47%	÷1.008	×1.200	—	—	31.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷1.040	×0.690	—	×0.952	3.71%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	5.26%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷0.981	×0.930	—	×0.952	17.19%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.944	×0.830	—	×0.952	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.966	×0.840	—	×0.952	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .187 → .154; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .190 → .172. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAABuffalo Bisons · 84 PAwOBA .307 → .249 (−58)K% 15.5% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.48%	÷0.942	×1.200	—	—	19.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.29%	÷1.041	×0.690	—	×0.962	9.11%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.03%	÷0.968	×0.930	×0.999	×0.962	20.35%
Doubles /BIP	3.39%	÷0.985	×0.830	×0.999	×0.962	2.75%
Triples /BIP	1.69%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.999	×0.962	1.37%
Home runs /BIP	1.69%	÷1.006	×0.840	—	×0.962	1.36%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 94, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 88, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .307 → .249; ISO .097 → .080; BABIP .276 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAACharlotte Knights · 473 PAwOBA .351 → .299 (−52)K% 19.2% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.24%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	22.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.26%	÷0.939	×0.690	—	×0.972	8.76%
HBP% /PA	1.06%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.97%
Singles /BIP	25.25%	÷1.004	×0.930	×0.970	×0.972	22.06%
Doubles /BIP	9.30%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.970	×0.972	7.24%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.970	×0.972	0.34%
Home runs /BIP	2.66%	÷0.972	×0.840	—	×0.972	2.23%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .351 → .299; ISO .138 → .119; BABIP .349 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAANorfolk Tides · 193 PAwOBA .317 → .271 (−46)K% 16.6% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.58%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	19.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.92%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×0.982	7.57%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.69%	÷1.001	×0.930	×0.968	×0.982	24.47%
Doubles /BIP	6.15%	÷0.984	×0.830	×0.968	×0.982	4.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.968	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.77%	÷0.870	×0.840	—	×0.982	0.73%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.

Result: wOBA .317 → .271; ISO .068 → .062; BABIP .328 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAATucson Padres · 557 PAwOBA .333 → .263 (−70)K% 16.7% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.70%	÷0.935	×1.290	—	—	23.03%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.77%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×0.992	7.61%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.87%
Singles /BIP	24.37%	÷1.022	×0.900	×0.990	×0.992	21.07%
Doubles /BIP	6.85%	÷1.001	×0.810	×0.990	×0.992	5.44%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.990	×0.992	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	2.28%	÷0.968	×0.780	—	×0.992	1.83%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 87, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .333 → .263; ISO .119 → .092; BABIP .321 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAASacramento River Cats · 339 PAwOBA .392 → .327 (−65)K% 14.7% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.75%	÷1.038	×1.290	—	—	18.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.91%	÷1.067	×0.710	—	×1.003	7.28%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	1.16%
Singles /BIP	28.10%	÷0.998	×0.900	×0.951	×1.003	24.18%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷0.920	×0.810	×0.951	×1.003	5.90%
Triples /BIP	1.24%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.951	×1.003	1.06%
Home runs /BIP	3.72%	÷0.950	×0.780	—	×1.003	3.06%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 100, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 108, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .392 → .327; ISO .171 → .146; BABIP .374 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAARochester Red Wings · 394 PAwOBA .315 → .271 (−44)K% 13.2% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.20%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	15.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.88%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.24%
HBP% /PA	0.51%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.49%
Singles /BIP	23.67%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.962	×1.018	21.56%
Doubles /BIP	5.67%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.962	×1.018	4.61%
Triples /BIP	0.33%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.962	×1.018	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	2.00%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.018	1.71%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .315 → .271; ISO .105 → .090; BABIP .300 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).