Matt McBride

PosRF

B/TR/R

Born1985-05-23

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2019

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2017	32	AAAMIL	285	.231/.306/.434	10	1	58	—	.186/.245/.353
2018	33	AAAPHI	223	.242/.336/.479	10	0	73	—	.196/.263/.392
2019	34	AAAPHI	162	.225/.273/.444	9	0	51	—	.176/.217/.359

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2007	22	A	Lake County Captains	—	474	421	119	35	2	8	38	54	8	1	0	283	353	432	786	150	303	11	8	346	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+	Kinston Indians	—	76	67	12	2	0	0	7	9	1	0	0	179	267	209	476	30	203	12	9	227	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A	Lake County Captains	—	44	39	12	4	0	1	5	5	0	0	0	308	386	487	874	179	333	11	11	387	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	ROK	GCL Indians	—	60	50	19	7	1	2	6	5	4	3	0	380	483	680	1.163	300	395	8	10	501	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA	Akron Aeros	—	406	361	89	29	0	12	18	42	14	1	1	247	308	427	734	180	244	10	4	316	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	A+	Kinston Indians	—	139	126	51	15	0	6	11	15	1	0	0	405	457	667	1.123	262	425	11	8	484	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	127	119	32	6	0	4	5	17	0	0	0	269	298	420	719	151	283	13	4	310	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AA	Akron Aeros	—	408	361	102	25	1	17	30	62	8	0	2	283	347	499	846	216	296	15	7	366	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	122	110	31	6	0	8	10	19	1	0	0	282	347	555	902	273	274	16	8	389	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	47	45	7	2	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	156	191	267	458	111	167	17	4	206	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	367	327	96	24	4	14	30	47	3	3	0	294	355	520	875	226	305	13	8	377	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	81	78	16	2	0	2	1	17	1	0	0	205	225	308	533	103	233	21	1	235	38	-6	+0	-5	-7	+2	-1.6
2012	27	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	469	439	151	42	6	10	19	47	1	0	1	344	373	535	908	191	360	10	4	389	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	INTL	Toros del Este	—	109	96	24	8	0	1	10	15	2	1	2	250	333	365	698	115	284	14	9	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	195	180	59	17	1	15	11	21	0	0	0	328	366	683	1.050	356	297	11	6	440	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	34	31	7	2	0	2	2	12	1	0	0	226	294	484	778	258	294	35	6	340	104	+0	+0	+0	-5	+1	-0.3
2014	29	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	206	187	57	11	1	7	12	19	2	0	1	305	353	487	840	182	301	9	6	362	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	ROK	Grand Junction Rockies	—	16	13	8	3	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	615	688	846	1.534	231	667	6	19	654	204	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	43	42	7	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	167	186	167	353		184	9	0	164	-6	-5	+0	-0	-7	+1	-1.2
2015	30	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	337	308	101	30	1	12	23	41	4	5	1	328	382	549	931	221	346	12	7	405	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	44	43	9	3	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	209	227	279	506	70	273	23	2	227	38	-3	+0	-2	+6	+1	0.1
2016	31	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	274	247	66	20	1	7	26	49	1	0	1	267	339	441	781	174	309	18	9	347	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	285	251	58	19	1	10	21	47	6	1	1	231	306	434	740	203	240	16	7	320	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	223	190	46	13	1	10	26	42	1	0	1	242	336	479	815	237	257	19	12	349	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	162	151	34	6	0	9	8	37	2	0	1	225	273	444	717	219	236	23	5	313	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	202	194	39	7	0	4	4	43	3	0	0	201	229	299	528	98	236	21	2	236	46	-13	+0	-7	-13	+4	-2.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2007	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	474	434	104	28	2	7	25	73	8	1	0	240	293	362	655	122	262	15	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	Kinston Indians	—	76	70	11	2	0	0	4	13	1	0	0	157	213	186	399	29	179	17	5	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	44	41	11	3	0	1	3	7	0	0	0	268	318	415	733	146	290	16	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	ROK MLE	GCL Indians	—	60	52	15	5	1	2	4	7	4	3	0	288	383	538	922	250	292	12	7	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA MLE	Akron Aeros	—	406	366	81	25	0	10	13	51	14	1	1	221	275	372	646	150	216	13	3	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	A+ MLE	Kinston Indians	—	139	130	43	12	0	5	7	21	1	0	0	331	370	538	908	208	358	15	5	388	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	127	120	28	5	0	3	4	20	0	0	0	233	258	350	608	117	242	16	3	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AA MLE	Akron Aeros	—	408	377	93	21	1	15	18	77	8	0	2	247	295	427	722	180	262	19	4	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	47	46	6	2	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	130	149	239	388	109	140	21	2	149	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	367	340	86	20	4	11	20	58	3	3	0	253	300	432	733	179	269	16	5	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	81	78	16	2	0	2	1	17	1	0	0	205	225	308	533	103	233	21	1	224	38	-6	+0	-5	-7	+2	-1.6
2012	27	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	469	443	120	30	4	8	15	68	1	0	1	271	296	411	707	140	288	14	3	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	195	184	46	13	1	11	7	29	0	0	0	250	277	511	788	261	234	15	4	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	34	31	7	2	0	2	2	12	1	0	0	226	294	484	778	258	294	35	6	323	104	+0	+0	+0	-5	+1	-0.3
2014	29	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	206	191	47	8	1	6	8	26	2	0	1	246	284	393	676	147	242	13	4	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	—	16	14	6	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	429	500	571	1.071	143	490	6	12	470	204	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	43	42	7	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	167	186	167	353		184	9	0	160	-6	-5	+0	-0	-7	+1	-1.2
2015	30	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	337	317	77	21	1	8	14	55	4	5	1	243	284	391	675	148	266	16	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	44	43	9	3	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	209	227	279	506	70	273	23	2	225	38	-3	+0	-2	+6	+1	0.1
2016	31	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	274	255	52	16	1	6	18	63	1	0	1	204	259	345	604	141	248	23	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	285	258	48	14	1	9	14	60	6	1	1	186	245	353	597	167	192	21	5	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	223	199	39	10	1	9	17	52	1	0	1	196	263	392	655	196	207	23	8	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	162	153	27	4	0	8	6	44	2	0	1	176	217	359	577	183	183	27	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	474	434	104	28	2	7	25	73	8	1	0	240	293	362	655	122	269	15	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A RAW	Lake County Captains	—	474	421	119	35	2	8	38	54	8	1	0	283	353	432	786	150	303	11	8	346	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	180	164	36	10	1	2	10	27	5	3	0	220	285	329	614	110	250	15	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	180	156	43	13	1	3	18	19	5	3	0	276	369	429	798	154	296	11	10	357	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	545	497	124	36	0	15	19	72	15	1	1	249	298	412	710	163	260	13	3	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	545	487	140	44	0	18	29	57	15	1	1	287	347	489	835	201	289	10	5	359	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	657	612	147	31	1	22	27	119	9	0	2	240	282	402	684	162	262	18	4	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AA RAW	3 teams	—	657	590	165	37	1	29	45	98	9	0	2	280	338	493	831	214	289	15	7	359	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	414	385	91	22	4	11	22	68	3	3	0	236	283	400	683	164	259	16	5	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	414	372	103	26	4	15	32	55	3	3	0	277	337	489	826	212	289	13	8	358	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	659	624	161	38	5	11	19	101	4	1	3	258	284	388	672	130	286	15	3	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	659	613	191	52	6	13	30	79	4	1	3	312	348	480	827	168	334	12	5	358	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	195	184	46	13	1	11	7	29	0	0	0	250	277	511	788	261	236	15	4	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA RAW	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	195	180	59	17	1	15	11	21	0	0	0	328	366	683	1.050	356	297	11	6	440	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	256	236	59	12	1	7	12	40	3	1	1	250	295	398	693	148	268	16	5	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	256	231	72	16	1	9	17	32	3	1	1	312	367	506	873	195	323	12	7	377	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	380	359	84	21	1	8	14	59	5	5	1	234	272	365	637	131	259	16	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	380	350	108	30	1	12	23	45	5	5	1	309	360	503	863	194	325	12	6	378	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	318	298	61	19	1	6	19	73	1	0	1	205	255	336	590	131	251	23	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	318	290	75	23	1	7	27	59	1	0	1	259	324	417	741	159	304	19	8	331	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	285	258	48	14	1	9	14	60	6	1	1	186	245	353	597	167	200	21	5	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	—	285	251	58	19	1	10	21	47	6	1	1	231	306	434	740	203	240	16	7	320	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	223	199	39	10	1	9	17	52	1	0	1	196	263	392	655	196	214	23	8	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	223	190	46	13	1	10	26	42	1	0	1	242	336	479	815	237	257	19	12	349	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	162	153	27	4	0	8	6	44	2	0	1	176	217	359	577	183	186	27	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	162	151	34	6	0	9	8	37	2	0	1	225	273	444	717	219	236	23	5	313	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	474	438	104	28	2	7	25	73	8	1	0	237	293	358	652	121	262	15	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	180	163	36	10	1	2	10	27	5	3	0	221	285	331	616	110	244	15	6	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	545	506	124	36	0	15	19	72	15	1	1	245	298	405	703	160	252	13	3	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AA MLE	3 teams	—	657	616	147	31	1	22	27	119	9	0	2	239	282	399	682	161	257	18	4	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	414	386	91	22	4	11	22	68	3	3	0	236	283	399	682	163	254	16	5	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	659	631	161	38	5	11	19	101	4	1	3	255	284	384	668	128	280	15	3	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	195	186	46	13	1	11	7	29	0	0	0	247	277	505	783	258	234	15	4	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	256	239	59	12	1	7	12	40	3	1	1	247	295	393	688	146	264	16	5	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	380	358	84	21	1	8	14	59	5	5	1	235	272	366	638	131	257	16	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	318	295	61	19	1	6	19	73	1	0	1	207	255	339	594	132	251	23	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	285	263	48	14	1	9	14	60	6	1	1	183	245	346	591	163	192	21	5	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	223	203	39	10	1	9	17	52	1	0	1	192	263	384	647	192	207	23	8	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	162	153	27	4	0	8	6	44	2	0	1	176	217	359	577	183	183	27	4	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	202	194	39	7	0	4	4	43	3	0	0	201	229	299	528	98	236	21	2	236	80	-13	+0	-7	-13	+4	-2.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	624	126	23	0	13	13	138	10	0	0	202	230	301	532	99	237	21	2	236	80	-42	+0	-23	-41	+14	-9.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4748	4403	1027	258	19	126	211	817	62	16	12	233	278	386	664	153	256	17	4	286	80	-13	+0	-7	-13	+4	-2.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	140	35	3	17	29	112	8	2	2	232	277	385	661	153	255	17	4	286	80	-42	+0	-23	-41	+14	-9.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 162 PAwOBA .306 → .243 (−62)K% 22.8% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.84%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	27.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.94%	÷0.948	×0.690	—	×0.940	3.38%
HBP% /PA	1.23%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.09%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.032	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	13.41%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷1.033	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	3.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.061	×0.970	×0.950	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.89%	÷0.866	×0.840	—	×0.940	7.20%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 112, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .306 → .243; ISO .219 → .185; BABIP .236 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 223 PAwOBA .341 → .276 (−65)K% 18.8% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.83%	÷0.962	×1.200	—	—	23.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.21%	÷0.932	×0.690	—	×0.942	7.82%
HBP% /PA	0.45%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.40%
Singles /BIP	14.86%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.954	×0.942	12.43%
Doubles /BIP	8.78%	÷0.971	×0.830	×0.954	×0.942	6.75%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.954	×0.942	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	6.76%	÷0.954	×0.840	—	×0.942	5.60%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .341 → .276; ISO .237 → .199; BABIP .257 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANashville Sounds · 285 PAwOBA .318 → .254 (−64)K% 16.5% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.49%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	21.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.37%	÷1.029	×0.710	—	×0.952	4.84%
HBP% /PA	2.11%	—	×0.980	—	×0.952	1.96%
Singles /BIP	13.73%	÷0.984	×0.900	×0.978	×0.952	11.68%
Doubles /BIP	9.31%	÷1.021	×0.810	×0.978	×0.952	6.88%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.978	×0.952	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	4.90%	÷0.868	×0.780	—	×0.952	4.20%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .318 → .254; ISO .203 → .166; BABIP .240 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANashville Sounds · 274 PAwOBA .338 → .263 (−75)K% 17.9% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.88%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	22.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.49%	÷0.979	×0.710	—	×0.962	6.62%
HBP% /PA	0.36%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	0.34%
Singles /BIP	19.19%	÷1.035	×0.900	×0.952	×0.962	15.30%
Doubles /BIP	10.10%	÷0.898	×0.810	×0.952	×0.962	8.35%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷1.015	×0.810	×0.952	×0.962	0.37%
Home runs /BIP	3.54%	÷0.856	×0.780	—	×0.962	3.10%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.

Result: wOBA .338 → .263; ISO .174 → .143; BABIP .309 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 337 PAwOBA .395 → .292 (−104)K% 12.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.17%	÷0.960	×1.290	—	—	16.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.53%	÷1.056	×0.710	—	×0.972	4.26%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	1.13%
Singles /BIP	21.72%	÷1.010	×0.900	×0.950	×0.972	17.88%
Doubles /BIP	11.24%	÷1.075	×0.810	×0.950	×0.972	7.82%
Triples /BIP	0.37%	÷0.933	×0.810	×0.950	×0.972	0.30%
Home runs /BIP	4.49%	÷1.105	×0.780	—	×0.972	3.08%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 102, 2B 115, 3B 87, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .395 → .292; ISO .221 → .151; BABIP .346 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 206 PAwOBA .360 → .287 (−74)K% 9.2% → 12.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.22%	÷0.934	×1.290	—	—	12.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.83%	÷1.055	×0.710	—	×0.982	3.85%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.93%
Singles /BIP	22.62%	÷1.005	×0.900	×0.950	×0.982	18.90%
Doubles /BIP	6.55%	÷1.028	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	4.81%
Triples /BIP	0.60%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷0.964	×0.780	—	×0.982	3.31%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 87, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .360 → .287; ISO .182 → .141; BABIP .301 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 ROKGrand Junction Rockies · 16 PAwOBA .638 → .470 (−168)K% 6.2% → 9.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.25%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	9.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.75%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×0.940	10.75%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	41.67%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	32.12%
Doubles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	16.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .638 → .470; ISO .231 → .167; BABIP .667 → .490. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 195 PAwOBA .435 → .339 (−96)K% 10.8% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.77%	÷0.941	×1.290	—	—	14.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.13%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.992	3.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.35%	÷1.031	×0.900	×0.950	×0.992	13.45%
Doubles /BIP	10.69%	÷0.967	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	8.44%
Triples /BIP	0.63%	÷1.071	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	9.43%	÷1.022	×0.780	—	×0.992	7.14%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 88, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .435 → .339; ISO .356 → .272; BABIP .297 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).