Eloy Gutierrez

PosCF

B/TS/R

Born1984-11-25

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2016

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2014	29	AAAToros de Tiju…	348	.288/.343/.407	6	5	72	—	.253/.293/.334
2015	30	AAAToros de Tiju…	57	.306/.404/.469	1	1	80	—	.250/.316/.385
2016	31	AAAVaqueros de l…	17	.231/.412/.462	1	0	71	—	.200/.294/.400

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	20	ROK	GCL Dodgers	—	142	119	32	4	1	1	15	26	5	2	6	269	371	345	716	76	333	18	11	327	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	79	69	15	2	1	0	9	24	1	5	0	217	316	275	592	58	333	30	11	279	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	ROK	GCL Dodgers	—	77	65	17	4	0	1	11	17	0	7	0	262	368	369	738	108	340	22	14	334	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA	Piratas de Campeche	—	223	196	39	10	3	5	18	60	2	2	2	199	273	357	630	158	258	27	8	274	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA	Guerreros de Oaxaca	—	425	362	112	8	4	9	54	93	2	8	12	309	402	428	830	119	395	22	13	369	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA	Guerreros de Oaxaca	—	385	326	99	15	9	2	42	80	3	16	5	304	388	423	811	120	396	21	11	352	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	42	34	7	1	1	0	7	10	0	2	0	206	341	294	636	88	292	24	17	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA	Guerreros de Oaxaca	—	339	283	64	6	3	2	44	88	3	5	4	226	336	290	626	64	316	26	13	288	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	INTL	Tomateros de Culiacan	—	53	47	14	5	0	2	5	21	0	1	1	298	365	532	897	234	500	40	9	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA	Diablos Rojos del Mexico	—	122	114	27	4	0	6	6	51	0	2	0	237	275	430	705	193	368	42	5	305	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	INTL	Naranjeros de Hermosillo	—	57	51	10	1	0	2	4	18	1	0	1	196	268	333	601	137	258	32	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA	Rieleros de Aguascalientes	—	169	149	40	11	0	0	14	43	2	7	3	268	339	342	682	74	370	25	8	305	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA	Toros de Tijuana	—	348	312	90	17	1	6	23	95	3	5	2	288	343	407	750	119	387	27	7	327	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA	Toros de Tijuana	—	57	49	15	3	1	1	8	19	0	1	2	306	404	469	873	163	483	33	14	389	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA	Vaqueros de la Laguna	—	17	13	3	0	0	1	4	8	0	0	1	231	412	462	873	231	500	47	24	393	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	20	ROK MLE	GCL Dodgers	—	142	126	26	3	1	1	9	37	5	2	6	206	286	270	556	63	262	26	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Dodgers	—	79	71	13	2	1	0	7	34	1	5	0	183	266	239	505	56	323	43	9	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	ROK MLE	GCL Dodgers	—	77	69	14	3	0	1	7	24	0	7	0	203	276	290	566	87	276	31	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	223	201	36	9	3	4	13	72	2	2	2	179	236	313	550	134	239	32	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Guerreros de Oaxaca	—	425	377	109	7	4	7	39	112	2	8	12	289	359	385	743	95	383	26	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	Guerreros de Oaxaca	—	385	341	96	13	8	1	27	94	3	16	5	282	340	375	715	94	364	24	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	Guerreros de Oaxaca	—	339	301	61	5	3	1	26	109	3	5	4	203	273	249	522	47	295	32	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	Diablos Rojos del Mexico	—	122	117	21	3	0	4	3	61	0	2	0	179	200	308	508	128	303	50	2	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Rieleros de Aguascalientes	—	169	155	35	8	0	0	8	56	2	7	3	226	273	277	550	52	336	33	5	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Toros de Tijuana	—	348	320	81	15	1	3	15	108	3	5	2	253	293	334	627	81	347	31	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Toros de Tijuana	—	57	52	13	2	1	1	5	23	0	1	2	250	316	385	700	135	417	40	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Vaqueros de la Laguna	—	17	15	3	0	0	1	2	10	0	0	1	200	294	400	694	200	429	59	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	ROK MLE	GCL Dodgers	—	142	126	26	3	1	1	9	37	5	2	6	206	286	270	556	63	281	26	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	ROK RAW	GCL Dodgers	—	142	119	32	4	1	1	15	26	5	2	6	269	371	345	716	76	333	18	11	327	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	156	141	25	4	1	1	13	59	1	12	0	177	252	241	493	64	296	38	8	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	156	134	32	6	1	1	20	41	1	12	0	239	342	321	663	82	337	26	13	306	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	223	201	36	9	3	4	13	72	2	2	2	179	236	313	550	134	254	32	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA RAW	Piratas de Campeche	—	223	196	39	10	3	5	18	60	2	2	2	199	273	357	630	158	258	27	8	274	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Guerreros de Oaxaca	—	425	377	109	7	4	7	39	112	2	8	12	289	359	385	743	95	394	26	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA RAW	Guerreros de Oaxaca	—	425	362	112	8	4	9	54	93	2	8	12	309	402	428	830	119	395	22	13	369	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	427	379	108	15	9	2	30	104	3	18	5	285	342	388	730	103	387	24	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	427	360	106	16	10	2	49	90	3	18	5	294	383	411	795	117	387	21	11	346	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	349	71	6	3	2	30	127	3	6	5	203	272	255	527	52	309	32	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	392	330	78	11	3	4	49	109	3	6	5	236	340	324	665	88	336	28	12	301	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	179	170	29	4	0	5	5	89	1	2	1	171	199	282	481	112	316	50	3	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	179	165	37	5	0	8	10	69	1	2	1	224	273	400	673	176	330	39	6	293	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Rieleros de Aguascalientes	—	169	155	35	8	0	0	8	56	2	7	3	226	273	277	550	52	347	33	5	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA RAW	Rieleros de Aguascalientes	—	169	149	40	11	0	0	14	43	2	7	3	268	339	342	682	74	370	25	8	305	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Toros de Tijuana	—	348	320	81	15	1	3	15	108	3	5	2	253	293	334	627	81	363	31	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA RAW	Toros de Tijuana	—	348	312	90	17	1	6	23	95	3	5	2	288	343	407	750	119	387	27	7	327	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Toros de Tijuana	—	57	52	13	2	1	1	5	23	0	1	2	250	316	385	700	135	429	40	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA RAW	Toros de Tijuana	—	57	49	15	3	1	1	8	19	0	1	2	306	404	469	873	163	483	33	14	389	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Vaqueros de la Laguna	—	17	15	3	0	0	1	2	10	0	0	1	200	294	400	694	200	500	59	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA RAW	Vaqueros de la Laguna	—	17	13	3	0	0	1	4	8	0	0	1	231	412	462	873	231	500	47	24	393	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	20	ROK MLE	GCL Dodgers	—	142	127	26	3	1	1	9	37	5	2	6	205	286	268	553	63	262	26	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	156	141	25	4	1	1	13	59	1	12	0	177	252	241	493	64	300	38	8	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Piratas de Campeche	—	223	206	36	9	3	4	13	72	2	2	2	175	236	306	542	131	239	32	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Guerreros de Oaxaca	—	425	381	109	7	4	7	39	112	2	8	12	286	359	381	739	94	383	26	9	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	427	391	108	15	9	2	30	104	3	18	5	276	342	376	718	100	364	24	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	392	356	71	6	3	2	30	127	3	6	5	199	272	250	522	51	295	32	8	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	179	171	29	4	0	5	5	89	1	2	1	170	199	281	480	111	303	50	3	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	AAA MLE	Rieleros de Aguascalientes	—	169	157	35	8	0	0	8	56	2	7	3	223	273	274	547	51	336	33	5	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	AAA MLE	Toros de Tijuana	—	348	327	81	15	1	3	15	108	3	5	2	248	293	327	620	80	347	31	4	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	AAA MLE	Toros de Tijuana	—	57	52	13	2	1	1	5	23	0	1	2	250	316	385	700	135	417	40	9	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	AAA MLE	Vaqueros de la Laguna	—	17	15	3	0	0	1	2	10	0	0	1	200	294	400	694	200	429	59	12	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	2535	2285	536	73	23	27	169	797	22	63	39	235	294	322	616	88	345	31	7	266	66	-102	-3	+0	+9	+55	-4.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	138	19	6	7	43	204	6	16	10	235	294	324	619	89	346	31	7	266	66	-26	-1	+0	+2	+14	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAAVaqueros de la Laguna · 17 PAwOBA .384 → .273 (−111)K% 47.1% → 57.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	47.06%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	57.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.53%	÷1.051	×0.690	—	×0.952	14.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷0.963	×0.930	—	×0.952	36.79%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.992	×0.830	—	×0.952	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.046	×0.920	—	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	20.00%	÷0.929	×0.700	—	×0.952	14.34%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 93, 2B 98, 3B 109, K 97, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .384 → .273; ISO .231 → .158; BABIP .500 → .429. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAToros de Tijuana · 57 PAwOBA .379 → .286 (−94)K% 33.3% → 40.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	40.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.04%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×0.962	9.20%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷0.982	×0.930	—	×0.962	30.35%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.026	×0.830	—	×0.962	7.79%
Triples /BIP	3.33%	÷1.046	×0.920	—	×0.962	2.82%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷1.208	×0.700	—	×0.962	1.86%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 109, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .379 → .286; ISO .163 → .110; BABIP .483 → .417. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAToros de Tijuana · 348 PAwOBA .324 → .274 (−50)K% 27.3% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.30%	÷1.058	×1.200	—	—	30.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.61%	÷1.035	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.28%
HBP% /PA	0.86%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.79%
Singles /BIP	30.41%	÷0.982	×0.930	×1.001	×0.972	28.02%
Doubles /BIP	7.83%	÷0.956	×0.830	×1.001	×0.972	6.62%
Triples /BIP	0.46%	÷0.901	×0.920	×1.001	×0.972	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	2.76%	÷1.271	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.48%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 96, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 112, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .324 → .274; ISO .119 → .085; BABIP .387 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAARieleros de Aguascalientes · 169 PAwOBA .299 → .247 (−52)K% 25.4% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.44%	÷0.924	×1.200	—	—	33.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.75%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.09%
Singles /BIP	27.36%	÷0.957	×0.930	×1.012	×0.982	26.40%
Doubles /BIP	10.38%	÷1.089	×0.830	×1.012	×0.982	7.86%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.012	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.235	×0.700	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 147, 1B 91, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 85, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .299 → .247; ISO .074 → .054; BABIP .370 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAADiablos Rojos del Mexico · 122 PAwOBA .293 → .206 (−87)K% 41.8% → 49.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	41.80%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	49.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.10%	÷1.035	×0.690	—	×0.992	2.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.98%	÷1.048	×0.930	×0.988	×0.992	23.45%
Doubles /BIP	6.35%	÷1.026	×0.830	×0.988	×0.992	5.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.988	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.52%	÷1.088	×0.700	—	×0.992	6.08%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .293 → .206; ISO .193 → .118; BABIP .368 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAGuerreros de Oaxaca · 339 PAwOBA .284 → .235 (−48)K% 26.0% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.96%	÷0.965	×1.200	—	—	32.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.98%	÷1.169	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.68%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.83%
Singles /BIP	27.18%	÷1.031	×0.930	×1.050	×1.003	25.82%
Doubles /BIP	3.08%	÷1.025	×0.830	×1.050	×1.003	2.62%
Triples /BIP	1.54%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.050	×1.003	1.30%
Home runs /BIP	1.03%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×1.003	0.71%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 93, BB 134 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .284 → .235; ISO .064 → .052; BABIP .316 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAGuerreros de Oaxaca · 385 PAwOBA .343 → .307 (−36)K% 20.8% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.78%	÷1.027	×1.200	—	—	24.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.65%	÷1.074	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.97%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.75%
Singles /BIP	29.67%	÷1.046	×0.930	×1.050	×1.018	28.19%
Doubles /BIP	6.10%	÷1.077	×0.830	×1.050	×1.018	5.03%
Triples /BIP	3.66%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.050	×1.018	3.13%
Home runs /BIP	0.81%	÷1.098	×0.700	—	×1.018	0.53%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 109, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 105, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .343 → .307; ISO .120 → .103; BABIP .396 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAGuerreros de Oaxaca · 425 PAwOBA .361 → .322 (−39)K% 21.9% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.88%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	26.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.71%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.06%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.46%
Singles /BIP	33.83%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.029	×1.033	33.43%
Doubles /BIP	2.97%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.029	×1.033	2.62%
Triples /BIP	1.49%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.029	×1.033	1.45%
Home runs /BIP	3.35%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.033	2.42%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .361 → .322; ISO .119 → .096; BABIP .395 → .383. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .