Danny Richar

Pos2B

B/TL/R

Born1983-06-06

Age (2027)44

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLLAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	32	AAA/INTL2 orgs	513	.352/.429/.530	13	22	109	—	.284/.333/.390
2016	33	AAA/INTL2 orgs	179	.212/.284/.269	0	1	39	—	.200/.245/.252
2017	34	INTLLeones del Es…	131	.288/.383/.414	2	0	125	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	22	A+	Lancaster JetHawks	—	503	454	136	32	8	20	32	64	3	9	3	300	350	537	887	238	310	13	6	376	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	548	480	140	25	5	8	52	77	3	15	5	292	364	415	779	123	328	14	9	342	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	206	187	43	9	3	6	16	33	0	1	3	230	291	406	697	176	248	16	8	304	92	-2	-1	-3	+2	+4	0.1
2007	24	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	444	400	122	25	8	13	37	71	2	8	5	305	367	505	872	200	343	16	8	379	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	37	36	8	2	0	0	0	9	0	1	0	222	222	278	500	56	296	24	0	216	32	-3	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.1
2008	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	400	362	94	21	3	11	31	71	3	14	5	260	323	425	749	166	293	18	8	330	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	181	169	49	11	1	4	10	17	0	2	3	290	330	438	767	148	304	9	6	336	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	27	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	498	467	147	29	0	7	19	74	1	7	4	315	343	422	765	107	360	15	4	334	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	27	INTL	Dominican Republic	—	199	176	43	9	1	1	20	25	1	10	1	244	325	324	649	80	280	13	10	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	28	INTL	Toros del Este	—	139	122	25	4	0	1	13	24	1	2	2	205	287	262	549	57	242	17	9	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	29	INTL	Estrellas de Oriente	—	19	15	4	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	267	421	267	688		308	11	16	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	61	57	17	2	0	4	4	15	0	1	1	298	344	544	888	246	342	25	7	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	AAA	Rieleros de Aguascalientes	—	471	413	145	26	6	12	53	70	2	22	3	351	427	530	958	179	398	15	11	420	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	42	36	13	3	0	1	6	4	0	0	1	361	452	528	980	167	387	10	14	435	180	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	AAA	Toros de Tijuana	—	146	131	29	6	1	0	11	27	1	1	2	221	287	282	569	61	274	18	8	258	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	33	29	5	1	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	172	273	207	480	34	217	18	12	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	34	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	131	111	32	4	2	2	15	30	2	0	2	288	383	414	797	126	370	23	11	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	243	223	51	11	3	6	16	42	0	2	3	229	280	386	666	157	256	17	7	291	83	-5	-1	-4	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	22	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	503	463	123	27	6	19	23	86	3	9	3	266	305	473	778	207	277	17	5	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	548	497	136	24	5	7	35	94	3	15	5	274	325	384	710	111	308	17	6	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	206	187	43	9	3	6	16	33	0	1	3	230	291	406	697	176	248	16	8	304	92	-2	-1	-3	+2	+4	0.1
2007	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	444	413	117	22	8	12	24	85	2	8	5	283	326	462	788	179	327	19	5	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	37	36	8	2	0	0	0	9	0	1	0	222	222	278	500	56	296	24	0	216	32	-3	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.1
2008	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	400	372	88	18	3	10	21	85	3	14	5	237	283	382	665	145	274	21	5	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	181	172	44	9	1	3	7	20	0	2	3	256	285	372	657	116	276	11	4	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	27	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	498	473	134	25	0	6	13	91	1	7	4	283	304	374	678	91	327	18	3	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	AAA MLE	Rieleros de Aguascalientes	—	471	436	124	21	5	5	30	93	2	22	3	284	333	390	723	106	343	20	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	AAA MLE	Toros de Tijuana	—	146	135	27	5	1	0	7	31	1	1	2	200	245	252	497	52	251	21	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	22	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	503	463	123	27	6	19	23	86	3	9	3	266	305	473	778	207	287	17	5	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	22	A+ RAW	Lancaster JetHawks	—	503	454	136	32	8	20	32	64	3	9	3	300	350	537	887	238	310	13	6	376	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	548	497	136	24	5	7	35	94	3	15	5	274	325	384	710	111	320	17	6	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	—	548	480	140	25	5	8	52	77	3	15	5	292	364	415	779	123	328	14	9	342	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	650	600	160	31	11	18	40	118	2	9	8	267	315	445	760	178	304	18	6	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	650	587	165	34	11	19	53	104	2	9	8	281	343	474	816	193	313	16	8	355	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	437	408	96	20	3	10	21	94	3	15	5	235	278	373	650	137	280	22	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	437	398	102	23	3	11	31	80	3	15	5	256	315	412	727	156	294	18	7	320	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	181	172	44	9	1	3	7	20	0	2	3	256	285	372	657	116	275	11	4	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	26	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	181	169	49	11	1	4	10	17	0	2	3	290	330	438	767	148	304	9	6	336	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	697	663	187	35	0	8	19	127	2	17	5	282	304	371	675	89	337	18	3	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	697	643	190	38	1	8	39	99	2	17	5	295	338	395	733	100	338	14	6	323	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	28	INTL MLE	Toros del Este	—	139	122	25	4	0	1	13	24	1	2	2	205	287	262	549	57	242	17	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	28	INTL RAW	Toros del Este	—	139	122	25	4	0	1	13	24	1	2	2	205	287	262	549	57	242	17	9	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	29	INTL MLE	Estrellas de Oriente	—	19	15	4	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	267	421	267	688		308	11	16	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	29	INTL RAW	Estrellas de Oriente	—	19	15	4	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	267	421	267	688		308	11	16	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	INTL MLE	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	61	57	17	2	0	4	4	15	0	1	1	298	344	544	888	246	342	25	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	31	INTL RAW	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	61	57	17	2	0	4	4	15	0	1	1	298	344	544	888	246	342	25	7	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	513	476	134	22	5	6	32	102	2	22	4	282	329	387	716	105	345	20	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	513	449	158	29	6	13	59	74	2	22	4	352	429	530	959	178	397	14	12	421	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	179	167	34	7	1	0	8	37	1	1	2	204	244	257	502	54	258	21	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	179	160	34	7	1	0	15	33	1	1	2	212	284	269	553	56	264	18	8	253	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	34	INTL MLE	Leones del Escogido	—	131	111	32	4	2	2	15	30	2	0	2	288	383	414	797	126	370	23	11	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	34	INTL RAW	Leones del Escogido	—	131	111	32	4	2	2	15	30	2	0	2	288	383	414	797	126	370	23	11	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	22	A+ MLE	Lancaster JetHawks	—	503	472	123	27	6	19	23	86	3	9	3	261	305	464	769	203	277	17	5	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	548	505	136	24	5	7	35	94	3	15	5	269	325	378	703	109	308	17	6	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	650	603	160	31	11	18	40	118	2	9	8	265	315	443	757	177	302	18	6	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	437	410	96	20	3	10	21	94	3	15	5	234	278	371	649	137	276	22	5	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	181	172	44	9	1	3	7	20	0	2	3	256	285	372	657	116	276	11	4	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	697	671	187	35	0	8	19	127	2	17	5	279	304	367	671	88	327	18	3	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	513	474	134	22	5	6	32	102	2	22	4	283	329	388	718	105	343	20	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	179	168	34	7	1	0	8	37	1	1	2	202	244	256	500	54	251	21	4	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	243	223	51	11	3	6	16	42	0	2	3	229	280	386	666	157	256	17	7	291	74	-5	-1	-4	+4	+5	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	136	29	8	16	43	112	0	5	8	228	280	384	664	156	254	17	7	291	74	-13	-2	-9	+10	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4058	3751	992	185	34	78	220	749	20	93	40	264	309	394	703	130	310	18	5	277	74	-5	-1	-4	+4	+5	-0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	601	158	30	5	12	35	120	3	15	6	263	307	389	696	126	308	18	5	277	74	-13	-2	-9	+10	+14	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAAToros de Tijuana · 146 PAwOBA .255 → .224 (−31)K% 18.5% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.49%	÷1.062	×1.200	—	—	20.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.53%	÷1.055	×0.690	—	×0.942	4.64%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.61%
Singles /BIP	21.15%	÷0.967	×0.930	×1.027	×0.942	19.69%
Doubles /BIP	5.77%	÷0.926	×0.830	×1.027	×0.942	5.00%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷0.941	×0.920	×1.027	×0.942	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.278	×0.700	—	×0.942	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 93, 2B 85, 3B 88, K 112, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .255 → .224; ISO .061 → .056; BABIP .274 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAARieleros de Aguascalientes · 471 PAwOBA .407 → .320 (−87)K% 14.9% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.86%	÷0.903	×1.200	—	—	19.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.55%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×0.952	6.29%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.38%
Singles /BIP	29.45%	÷1.007	×0.930	×1.033	×0.952	26.74%
Doubles /BIP	7.58%	÷1.046	×0.830	×1.033	×0.952	5.92%
Triples /BIP	1.75%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.033	×0.952	1.38%
Home runs /BIP	3.50%	÷1.488	×0.700	—	×0.952	1.57%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 198, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 81, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.

Result: wOBA .407 → .320; ISO .179 → .112; BABIP .398 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 498 PAwOBA .325 → .291 (−34)K% 14.9% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.86%	÷1.056	×1.290	—	—	18.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.41%	÷0.887	×0.710	—	×1.003	2.74%
HBP% /PA	0.20%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.20%
Singles /BIP	28.24%	÷1.007	×0.900	×1.031	×1.003	26.09%
Doubles /BIP	7.38%	÷0.963	×0.810	×1.031	×1.003	6.42%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.031	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.78%	÷0.939	×0.780	—	×1.003	1.48%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 111, BB 77 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .325 → .291; ISO .107 → .091; BABIP .360 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAALouisville Bats · 181 PAwOBA .327 → .289 (−38)K% 9.4% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.39%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	11.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.52%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	3.88%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.71%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.989	×1.018	20.32%
Doubles /BIP	7.24%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.989	×1.018	6.05%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.989	×1.018	0.64%
Home runs /BIP	2.63%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.018	2.25%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .327 → .289; ISO .148 → .128; BABIP .304 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAALouisville Bats · 400 PAwOBA .322 → .285 (−37)K% 17.8% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.75%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	21.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.50%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.35%
HBP% /PA	0.75%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.73%
Singles /BIP	20.27%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.002	×1.033	19.52%
Doubles /BIP	7.22%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.002	×1.033	6.20%
Triples /BIP	1.03%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.002	×1.033	1.04%
Home runs /BIP	3.78%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.033	3.28%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .322 → .285; ISO .166 → .145; BABIP .293 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAACharlotte Knights · 444 PAwOBA .368 → .338 (−30)K% 16.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.99%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	19.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.66%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	5.54%
HBP% /PA	0.45%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.44%
Singles /BIP	23.10%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.005	×1.048	22.63%
Doubles /BIP	7.60%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.005	×1.048	6.65%
Triples /BIP	2.43%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.005	×1.048	2.49%
Home runs /BIP	3.95%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.048	3.48%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .368 → .338; ISO .200 → .183; BABIP .343 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 AATennessee Smokies · 548 PAwOBA .337 → .305 (−31)K% 14.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.05%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	17.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.12%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.027	6.37%
HBP% /PA	0.55%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.47%
Singles /BIP	25.31%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.000	×1.027	23.92%
Doubles /BIP	6.20%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.000	×1.027	5.80%
Triples /BIP	1.24%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.000	×1.027	1.12%
Home runs /BIP	1.99%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.63%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .337 → .305; ISO .123 → .112; BABIP .328 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2005 A+Lancaster JetHawks · 503 PAwOBA .368 → .323 (−45)K% 12.7% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.72%	÷1.000	×1.340	—	—	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.36%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	4.57%
HBP% /PA	0.60%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.48%
Singles /BIP	19.49%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.013	×1.012	18.19%
Doubles /BIP	8.21%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.013	×1.012	6.90%
Triples /BIP	2.05%	÷1.000	×0.760	×1.013	×1.012	1.60%
Home runs /BIP	5.13%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.012	4.77%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .368 → .323; ISO .238 → .211; BABIP .310 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .