Stefan Welch
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | INTLAdelaide Bite | 173 | .266/.407/.410 | 4 | 0 | 138 | — |
| 2016 | 27 | INTLAdelaide Bite | 136 | .266/.412/.367 | 2 | 1 | 132 | — |
| 2018 | 29 | INTLAdelaide Bite | 165 | .196/.319/.275 | 2 | 0 | 76 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 18 | ROK | GCL Mets | — | 156 | 139 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 288 | 353 | 353 | 705 | 65 | 333 | 14 | 7 | 317 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 22 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 364 | 474 | 837 | 211 | 308 | 23 | 9 | 373 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | — | 269 | 253 | 71 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 40 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 281 | 318 | 447 | 765 | 166 | 318 | 15 | 4 | 334 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 243 | 216 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 278 | 353 | 412 | 765 | 134 | 312 | 15 | 8 | 342 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 96 | 92 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 271 | 359 | 630 | 120 | 282 | 20 | 4 | 280 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 555 | 496 | 127 | 29 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 126 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 256 | 328 | 395 | 723 | 139 | 325 | 23 | 7 | 322 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | INTL | Adelaide Bite | — | 179 | 154 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 301 | 383 | 684 | 182 | 224 | 23 | 11 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | St. Lucie Mets | — | 514 | 436 | 118 | 19 | 3 | 16 | 57 | 105 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 271 | 367 | 438 | 805 | 167 | 317 | 20 | 11 | 353 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | INTL | Adelaide Bite | — | 98 | 86 | 24 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 279 | 361 | 558 | 919 | 279 | 271 | 12 | 10 | 395 | 154 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 252 | 214 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 266 | 362 | 402 | 764 | 136 | 342 | 23 | 12 | 338 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | — | 247 | 223 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 269 | 329 | 435 | 764 | 166 | 297 | 18 | 7 | 335 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | INTL | Adelaide Bite | — | 184 | 158 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 346 | 443 | 789 | 196 | 274 | 20 | 10 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 83 | 73 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 137 | 241 | 205 | 446 | 68 | 161 | 19 | 12 | 216 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 325 | 267 | 78 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 45 | 65 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 292 | 413 | 476 | 889 | 184 | 349 | 20 | 14 | 395 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL | Adelaide Bite | — | 129 | 102 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 245 | 394 | 382 | 776 | 137 | 304 | 19 | 17 | 352 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 400 | 333 | 74 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 48 | 99 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 341 | 360 | 701 | 138 | 284 | 25 | 12 | 317 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | INTL | Adelaide Bite | — | 174 | 150 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 307 | 395 | 500 | 895 | 193 | 331 | 15 | 9 | 393 | 152 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | INTL | Adelaide Bite | — | 173 | 139 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 407 | 410 | 817 | 144 | 311 | 17 | 15 | 373 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | INTL | Adelaide Bite | — | 136 | 109 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 412 | 367 | 779 | 101 | 297 | 12 | 17 | 364 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | INTL | Adelaide Bite | — | 165 | 138 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 319 | 275 | 594 | 80 | 269 | 26 | 13 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 156 | 143 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 231 | 281 | 280 | 561 | 49 | 277 | 21 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 22 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 318 | 450 | 768 | 200 | 280 | 32 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | Kingsport Mets | — | 269 | 257 | 55 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 214 | 243 | 335 | 578 | 121 | 254 | 21 | 3 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 243 | 222 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 52 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 303 | 356 | 659 | 113 | 293 | 21 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | Savannah Sand Gnats | — | 96 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 229 | 312 | 541 | 108 | 257 | 26 | 3 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 555 | 507 | 103 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 178 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 264 | 312 | 576 | 108 | 288 | 32 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 514 | 454 | 95 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 157 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 285 | 333 | 617 | 123 | 272 | 31 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 252 | 223 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 74 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 305 | 336 | 641 | 103 | 309 | 29 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 247 | 230 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 65 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 251 | 326 | 577 | 117 | 252 | 26 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 83 | 77 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 117 | 181 | 182 | 363 | 65 | 146 | 27 | 7 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 325 | 287 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 93 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 223 | 307 | 366 | 673 | 143 | 287 | 29 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 400 | 350 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 124 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 183 | 272 | 289 | 561 | 106 | 247 | 31 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 156 | 143 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 231 | 281 | 280 | 561 | 49 | 289 | 21 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Mets | — | 156 | 139 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 288 | 353 | 353 | 705 | 65 | 333 | 14 | 7 | 317 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 277 | 59 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 213 | 246 | 339 | 585 | 126 | 259 | 22 | 3 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 291 | 272 | 76 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 45 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 279 | 322 | 449 | 770 | 169 | 317 | 15 | 4 | 337 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 315 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 78 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 282 | 340 | 622 | 108 | 288 | 23 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 339 | 308 | 82 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 56 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 329 | 396 | 725 | 130 | 304 | 17 | 7 | 324 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 734 | 673 | 136 | 32 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 235 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 259 | 311 | 570 | 108 | 292 | 32 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 734 | 650 | 158 | 36 | 8 | 15 | 57 | 168 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 321 | 392 | 714 | 149 | 302 | 23 | 8 | 317 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 612 | 543 | 112 | 19 | 2 | 14 | 46 | 187 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 280 | 326 | 606 | 120 | 280 | 31 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 612 | 522 | 142 | 28 | 3 | 21 | 67 | 117 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 272 | 366 | 458 | 823 | 186 | 309 | 19 | 11 | 360 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 683 | 617 | 136 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 190 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 220 | 283 | 327 | 611 | 107 | 293 | 28 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 683 | 595 | 156 | 31 | 3 | 20 | 66 | 139 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 262 | 346 | 425 | 771 | 163 | 306 | 20 | 10 | 340 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 537 | 478 | 97 | 21 | 0 | 13 | 41 | 151 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 203 | 284 | 328 | 612 | 126 | 263 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 537 | 442 | 113 | 28 | 2 | 12 | 77 | 105 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 256 | 382 | 410 | 791 | 154 | 306 | 20 | 14 | 357 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 574 | 502 | 92 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 178 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 183 | 274 | 289 | 563 | 106 | 258 | 31 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 574 | 483 | 120 | 24 | 3 | 15 | 64 | 125 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 248 | 358 | 404 | 761 | 155 | 300 | 22 | 11 | 340 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | INTL MLE | Adelaide Bite | — | 173 | 139 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 407 | 410 | 817 | 144 | 311 | 17 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | INTL RAW | Adelaide Bite | — | 173 | 139 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 407 | 410 | 817 | 144 | 311 | 17 | 15 | 373 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | INTL MLE | Adelaide Bite | — | 136 | 109 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 412 | 367 | 779 | 101 | 297 | 12 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | INTL RAW | Adelaide Bite | — | 136 | 109 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 412 | 367 | 779 | 101 | 297 | 12 | 17 | 364 | 132 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | INTL MLE | Adelaide Bite | — | 165 | 138 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 319 | 275 | 594 | 80 | 269 | 26 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | INTL RAW | Adelaide Bite | — | 165 | 138 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 319 | 275 | 594 | 80 | 269 | 26 | 13 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 156 | 145 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 228 | 281 | 276 | 557 | 48 | 277 | 21 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 291 | 277 | 59 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 63 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 213 | 246 | 339 | 585 | 126 | 256 | 22 | 3 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 314 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 78 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 282 | 341 | 623 | 108 | 283 | 23 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 734 | 676 | 136 | 32 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 235 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 201 | 259 | 309 | 568 | 108 | 288 | 32 | 5 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 612 | 551 | 112 | 19 | 2 | 14 | 46 | 187 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 280 | 321 | 602 | 118 | 272 | 31 | 8 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 683 | 624 | 136 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 190 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 283 | 324 | 607 | 106 | 281 | 28 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 537 | 478 | 97 | 21 | 0 | 13 | 41 | 151 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 203 | 284 | 328 | 612 | 126 | 258 | 28 | 8 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 574 | 506 | 92 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 178 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 182 | 274 | 287 | 561 | 105 | 247 | 31 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4400 | 3934 | 831 | 164 | 23 | 75 | 312 | 1203 | 96 | 29 | 13 | 211 | 285 | 322 | 607 | 111 | 280 | 27 | 7 | 233 | 44 | -294 | +1 | +0 | -79 | +95 | -28.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 122 | 24 | 3 | 11 | 46 | 178 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 210 | 283 | 318 | 602 | 108 | 279 | 27 | 7 | 233 | 44 | -43 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -4.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 400 PAwOBA .313 → .253 (−60)K% 24.8% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.75% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.75% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 2.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.09% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 18.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.84% | ÷1.025 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 5.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.42% | ÷0.959 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.75% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .313 → .253; ISO .138 → .114; BABIP .284 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Salem Red Sox · 325 PAwOBA .387 → .297 (−90)K% 20.0% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.994 | ×1.420 | — | — | 28.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.23% | ÷1.054 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 7.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.08% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 2.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.26% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | ×0.966 | ×0.978 | 20.79% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.41% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×0.978 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.129 | ×0.800 | ×0.966 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.95% | ÷0.979 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 4.45% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 108, 3B 126, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .387 → .297; ISO .184 → .152; BABIP .349 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAltoona Curve · 83 PAwOBA .211 → .167 (−44)K% 19.3% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.28% | ÷0.905 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.05% | ÷1.073 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.28% | ÷0.997 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 11.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.51% | ÷0.933 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 3.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.836 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 101, K 81, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .211 → .167; ISO .068 → .060; BABIP .161 → .146. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAltoona Curve · 252 PAwOBA .329 → .278 (−51)K% 23.4% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.41% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.51% | ÷0.943 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.16% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 24.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.74% | ÷1.173 | ×0.860 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 5.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.026 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | ×1.012 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.042 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.44% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 104, 2B 135, 3B 105, K 96, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .329 → .278; ISO .136 → .104; BABIP .342 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Bradenton Marauders · 247 PAwOBA .329 → .247 (−82)K% 17.8% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.81% | ÷0.962 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.48% | ÷1.167 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 4.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.35% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | ×0.954 | ×0.988 | 18.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.969 | ×0.960 | ×0.954 | ×0.988 | 5.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.074 | ×0.810 | ×0.954 | ×0.988 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.47% | ÷1.385 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.81% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 177, 1B 104, 2B 94, 3B 115, K 92, BB 133 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .329 → .247; ISO .166 → .113; BABIP .297 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+St. Lucie Mets · 514 PAwOBA .346 → .272 (−75)K% 20.4% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.43% | ÷0.947 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.51% | ÷1.042 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.17% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 20.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.74% | ÷1.013 | ×0.960 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 5.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.097 | ×0.810 | ×0.953 | ×0.998 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.83% | ÷1.095 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.88% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 102, 2B 103, 3B 119, K 89, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .346 → .272; ISO .167 → .128; BABIP .317 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+St. Lucie Mets · 555 PAwOBA .314 → .254 (−60)K% 22.7% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.70% | ÷1.008 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.13% | ÷1.020 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.88% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 2.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.16% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 19.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷1.024 | ×0.960 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.16% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.16% | ÷0.942 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.04% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .314 → .254; ISO .139 → .111; BABIP .325 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 A+St. Lucie Mets · 243 PAwOBA .333 → .293 (−40)K% 15.2% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 21.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.027 | 5.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.06% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.027 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 22.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.960 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.993 | ×1.027 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.52% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .333 → .293; ISO .134 → .118; BABIP .312 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .