Alexi Casilla

Pos2B

B/TS/R

Born1984-07-20

Age (2027)43

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLLAST SEASON 2018

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2016	32	AAA/INTL2 orgs	328	.233/.293/.301	2	5	40	—	.212/.249/.273
2017	33	INTLToros del Este	158	.315/.363/.390	1	4	115	—
2018	34	INTLToros del Este	97	.318/.363/.365	0	4	96	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	21	AAA	Salt Lake Stingers	—	43	37	9	0	0	0	3	6	0	1	0	243	300	243	543		290	14	7	238	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	AA	Arkansas Travelers	—	21	19	4	0	0	0	2	3	0	1	1	211	286	211	496		250	14	10	239	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	347	308	100	11	3	3	29	31	6	47	12	325	394	409	803	84	353	9	8	360	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	199	170	50	10	1	1	18	20	4	19	4	294	375	382	757	88	329	10	9	334	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	359	323	107	12	6	0	30	36	2	31	6	331	392	406	797	74	372	10	8	357	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	204	189	42	5	1	0	9	29	0	11	1	222	258	259	517	37	261	14	4	230	42	-14	+2	-3	+2	+4	-0.9
2007	23	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	365	320	86	13	1	3	34	50	4	24	12	269	346	344	690	75	310	14	9	311	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	437	385	108	15	0	7	31	45	2	7	2	281	337	374	711	94	298	10	7	308	95	-3	+1	+2	+2	+9	1.1
2008	24	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	121	96	21	3	0	0	18	18	2	4	3	219	353	250	603	31	266	15	15	282	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	256	228	46	7	3	0	22	36	3	11	0	202	281	259	539	57	238	14	9	250	55	-14	+2	-6	+2	+6	-1.0
2009	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	171	156	53	3	4	2	11	23	0	9	6	340	383	449	832	109	383	13	6	362	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	170	152	42	7	4	1	13	17	0	6	1	276	333	395	728	118	304	10	8	316	100	+0	+1	+4	+4	+4	1.3
2010	26	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	—	23	20	7	0	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	350	435	350	785		368	4	13	366	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	ROK	GCL Twins	—	17	14	2	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	143	294	214	508	71	143	0	18	252	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	176	155	47	5	2	2	17	18	1	7	5	303	376	400	776	97	331	10	10	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	365	323	84	21	4	2	28	45	3	15	4	260	325	368	693	108	294	12	8	304	92	-4	+1	+2	+2	+8	0.9
2011	27	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	137	119	40	7	1	0	15	21	2	6	1	336	419	412	831	76	408	15	11	376	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	326	299	72	17	2	1	16	52	3	21	1	241	286	321	607	80	283	16	5	269	68	-12	+4	+3	+2	+7	0.4
2012	28	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	170	152	44	9	3	2	12	17	2	7	3	289	349	428	777	138	316	10	7	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	125	112	24	4	1	1	9	20	0	9	2	214	273	295	567	80	247	16	7	251	55	-7	+1	+1	+1	+3	-0.1
2013	29	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	87	83	19	2	0	1	2	16	1	0	3	229	256	289	545	60	269	18	2	244	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	213	197	52	8	0	1	14	28	1	9	2	264	316	320	636	56	302	13	7	290	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	INTL	Dominican Republic	—	148	138	43	5	2	1	3	19	3	6	2	312	340	399	739	87	353	13	2	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	367	335	96	19	2	4	27	51	1	10	5	287	342	391	733	104	329	14	7	326	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	125	117	29	5	2	1	4	10	3	5	0	248	290	350	641	103	264	8	3	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	282	257	62	10	2	2	20	40	0	5	1	241	296	319	615	78	279	14	7	275	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	46	39	7	0	0	0	4	6	1	0	1	179	273	179	452		212	13	9	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	33	INTL	Toros del Este	—	158	146	46	6	1	1	10	19	1	4	4	315	363	390	753	75	354	12	6	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	34	INTL	Toros del Este	—	97	85	27	4	0	0	6	15	0	4	0	318	363	365	727	47	380	15	6	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1883	1688	418	76	15	12	128	244	11	80	11	248	305	332	637	84	280	13	7	281	76	-53	+12	+4	+14	+41	1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	21	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Stingers	—	43	38	9	0	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	237	275	237	512		274	19	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	—	21	20	4	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	1	200	238	200	438		242	19	5	209	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	347	317	97	10	3	2	20	42	6	47	12	306	359	375	734	69	341	12	6	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	199	175	52	9	1	1	13	24	4	19	4	297	359	377	737	80	325	12	7	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	359	330	103	12	5	0	23	51	2	31	6	312	361	379	739	67	363	14	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	204	189	42	5	1	0	9	29	0	11	1	222	258	259	517	37	261	14	4	230	42	-14	+2	-3	+2	+4	-0.9
2007	23	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	365	330	89	12	1	3	24	60	4	24	12	270	327	339	666	70	312	16	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	437	385	108	15	0	7	31	45	2	7	2	281	337	374	711	94	298	10	7	308	95	-3	+1	+2	+2	+9	1.1
2008	24	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	121	101	23	3	0	0	13	22	2	4	3	228	328	257	585	30	268	18	11	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	256	228	46	7	3	0	22	36	3	11	0	202	281	259	539	57	238	14	9	250	55	-14	+2	-6	+2	+6	-1.0
2009	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	171	159	53	3	4	2	8	28	0	9	6	333	365	440	806	107	376	16	5	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	170	152	42	7	4	1	13	17	0	6	1	276	333	395	728	118	304	10	8	316	100	+0	+1	+4	+4	+4	1.3
2010	26	AA MLE	New Britain Rock Cats	—	23	21	7	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	333	391	333	725		337	4	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	17	15	2	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	133	235	200	435	67	103	0	12	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	365	323	84	21	4	2	28	45	3	15	4	260	325	368	693	108	294	12	8	304	92	-4	+1	+2	+2	+8	0.9
2012	28	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	326	299	72	17	2	1	16	52	3	21	1	241	286	321	607	80	283	16	5	269	68	-12	+4	+3	+2	+7	0.4
2013	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	125	112	24	4	1	1	9	20	0	9	2	214	273	295	567	80	247	16	7	249	55	-7	+1	+1	+1	+3	-0.1
2014	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	213	202	49	8	0	1	9	33	1	9	2	243	278	297	575	54	279	15	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	367	346	89	15	2	4	16	61	1	10	5	257	292	347	639	90	296	17	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	282	264	56	9	2	1	13	51	0	5	1	212	249	273	522	61	255	18	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	411	374	110	10	3	2	24	53	6	49	13	294	347	353	699	59	338	13	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	411	364	113	11	3	3	34	40	6	49	13	310	379	382	761	71	342	10	8	341	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	558	505	155	22	6	1	36	75	6	50	10	307	360	380	740	73	358	13	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	558	493	157	22	7	1	48	56	6	50	10	318	386	398	783	79	357	10	9	349	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	569	519	131	17	2	3	33	89	4	35	13	252	302	310	612	58	298	16	6	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	569	509	128	18	2	3	43	79	4	35	13	251	315	312	627	61	291	14	8	282	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	558	486	131	18	0	7	44	67	4	11	5	270	335	350	685	80	296	12	8	299	88	-8	+0	+2	+2	+12	0.8
2008	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	558	481	129	18	0	7	49	63	4	11	5	268	341	349	690	81	292	11	9	303	88	-8	+0	+2	+2	+12	0.8
2009	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	427	387	99	10	7	2	30	64	3	20	6	256	314	333	648	78	299	15	7	287	80	-10	+2	-6	+2	+9	-0.3
2009	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	427	384	99	10	7	2	33	59	3	20	6	258	321	336	657	78	298	14	8	295	80	-10	+2	-6	+2	+9	-0.3
2010	26	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	386	346	92	14	7	2	31	33	1	14	6	266	328	364	692	98	288	9	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	INTL RAW	4 teams	—	386	341	98	13	6	3	36	36	1	14	6	287	357	387	744	100	312	9	9	330	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	502	446	116	29	6	3	39	62	5	21	5	260	327	372	699	112	294	12	8	304	92	-5	+2	+2	+2	+11	1.2
2011	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	502	442	124	28	5	2	43	66	5	21	5	281	351	380	731	100	324	13	9	324	92	-5	+2	+2	+2	+11	1.2
2012	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	496	455	110	26	3	2	24	79	5	28	4	242	287	325	612	84	285	16	5	269	68	-19	+4	+3	+2	+11	0.1
2012	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	496	451	116	26	5	3	28	69	5	28	4	257	308	357	665	100	294	14	6	293	68	-19	+4	+3	+2	+11	0.1
2013	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	212	191	41	7	2	2	15	34	1	9	5	215	275	304	579	89	247	16	7	249	55	-11	-0	+1	+1	+5	-0.5
2013	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	212	195	43	6	1	2	11	36	1	9	5	221	266	292	558	72	256	17	5	248	55	-11	-0	+1	+1	+5	-0.5
2014	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	361	336	82	13	0	1	16	56	4	15	4	244	287	292	578	48	288	16	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	361	335	95	13	2	2	17	47	4	15	4	284	326	352	678	69	323	13	5	303	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	492	462	118	20	2	5	21	82	4	15	5	255	294	340	633	84	301	17	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	492	452	125	24	4	5	31	61	4	15	5	277	329	381	709	104	311	12	6	316	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	328	305	67	11	2	2	15	60	1	5	2	220	259	289	547	69	267	18	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	328	296	69	10	2	2	24	46	1	5	2	233	293	301	594	68	270	14	7	267	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	33	INTL MLE	Toros del Este	—	158	146	46	6	1	1	10	19	1	4	4	315	363	390	753	75	354	12	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	33	INTL RAW	Toros del Este	—	158	146	46	6	1	1	10	19	1	4	4	315	363	390	753	75	354	12	6	339	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	34	INTL MLE	Toros del Este	—	97	85	27	4	0	0	6	15	0	4	0	318	363	365	727	47	380	15	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	34	INTL RAW	Toros del Este	—	97	85	27	4	0	0	6	15	0	4	0	318	363	365	727	47	380	15	6	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	411	378	110	10	3	2	24	53	6	49	13	291	347	349	696	58	329	13	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	558	511	155	22	6	1	36	75	6	50	10	303	360	376	736	72	349	13	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	569	527	131	17	2	3	33	89	4	35	13	249	302	306	608	57	294	16	6	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	558	505	131	18	0	7	44	67	4	11	5	259	335	337	672	77	291	12	8	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	427	391	99	10	7	2	30	64	3	20	6	253	314	330	644	77	293	15	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	26	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	386	351	92	14	7	2	31	33	1	14	6	262	328	359	687	97	291	9	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	502	453	116	29	6	3	39	62	5	21	5	256	327	366	693	110	294	12	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	496	464	110	26	3	2	24	79	5	28	4	237	287	319	606	82	283	16	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	212	194	41	7	2	2	15	34	1	9	5	211	275	299	574	88	247	16	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	361	338	82	13	0	1	16	56	4	15	4	243	287	290	576	47	279	16	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	492	464	118	20	2	5	21	82	4	15	5	254	294	338	632	84	296	17	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	32	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	328	309	67	11	2	2	15	60	1	5	2	217	259	285	543	68	255	18	5	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1883	1688	418	76	15	12	128	244	11	80	11	248	305	332	637	84	280	13	7	281	69	-53	+12	+4	+14	+41	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	144	26	5	4	44	84	4	28	4	247	305	329	634	82	279	13	7	281	69	-18	+4	+1	+5	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5555	5043	1325	207	41	33	344	788	45	280	82	263	316	340	655	77	304	14	6	270	69	-53	+12	+4	+14	+41	1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	155	24	5	4	40	92	5	33	10	263	315	341	656	78	303	14	6	270	69	-18	+4	+1	+5	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2016 AAABuffalo Bisons · 282 PAwOBA .268 → .229 (−39)K% 14.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.18%	÷0.937	×1.200	—	—	18.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.09%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×0.952	4.51%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.12%	÷1.008	×0.930	×1.050	×0.952	20.40%
Doubles /BIP	4.61%	÷0.917	×0.830	×1.050	×0.952	4.17%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×0.952	0.78%
Home runs /BIP	0.92%	÷1.164	×0.840	—	×0.952	0.63%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 102, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 87, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .268 → .229; ISO .078 → .065; BABIP .279 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 367 PAwOBA .317 → .273 (−44)K% 13.9% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.90%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	16.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.08%	÷1.085	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.33%
HBP% /PA	0.27%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.25%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.988	×0.930	×1.040	×0.962	23.54%
Doubles /BIP	6.69%	÷1.083	×0.830	×1.040	×0.962	5.13%
Triples /BIP	0.70%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.040	×0.962	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	1.41%	÷0.911	×0.840	—	×0.962	1.25%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 98, 2B 117, 3B 130, K 100, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .317 → .273; ISO .104 → .087; BABIP .329 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAANorfolk Tides · 213 PAwOBA .284 → .250 (−34)K% 13.1% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.15%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.57%	÷1.025	×0.690	—	×0.972	4.30%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.43%
Singles /BIP	25.44%	÷1.027	×0.930	×1.050	×0.972	23.52%
Doubles /BIP	4.73%	÷0.899	×0.830	×1.050	×0.972	4.46%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.007	×0.970	×1.050	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.59%	÷1.223	×0.840	—	×0.972	0.40%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 145, 1B 105, 2B 80, 3B 101, K 105, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .284 → .250; ISO .056 → .049; BABIP .302 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 23 PAwOBA .358 → .317 (−41)K% 4.3% → 5.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	4.35%	÷1.031	×1.220	—	—	5.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.04%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×0.988	9.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	36.84%	÷1.047	×0.970	—	×0.988	33.71%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.018	×0.860	—	×0.988	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.914	×0.780	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 109, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 106, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .358 → .317; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .368 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 ROKGCL Twins · 17 PAwOBA .247 → .168 (−78)K% 0.0% → 0.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	0.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.65%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	10.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	5.51%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	4.83%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .247 → .168; ISO .071 → .053; BABIP .143 → .103. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAARochester Red Wings · 171 PAwOBA .357 → .342 (−15)K% 13.5% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.45%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	16.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.43%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.59%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.08%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.025	×1.033	32.59%
Doubles /BIP	2.26%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.025	×1.033	1.98%
Triples /BIP	3.01%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.025	×1.033	3.09%
Home runs /BIP	1.50%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.033	1.30%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .357 → .342; ISO .109 → .105; BABIP .383 → .376. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAARochester Red Wings · 121 PAwOBA .279 → .264 (−15)K% 14.9% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.88%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	17.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.88%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	10.76%
HBP% /PA	1.65%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.63%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.050	×1.048	23.62%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×1.048	3.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.048	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .279 → .264; ISO .031 → .031; BABIP .266 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAARochester Red Wings · 365 PAwOBA .303 → .291 (−12)K% 13.7% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.70%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.04%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.55%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.08%
Singles /BIP	25.56%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.050	×1.050	26.20%
Doubles /BIP	4.81%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	4.41%
Triples /BIP	0.37%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.050	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	1.11%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.98%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .303 → .291; ISO .075 → .070; BABIP .310 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .