Desmond Jennings

PosCF

B/TR/R

Born1986-10-30

Age (2027)40

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	28	AAATB	25	.143/.280/.238	0	0	7	—	.130/.200/.217
2015	28	MLBTB	108	.268/.330/.340	1	5	88	0.0
2016	29	MLBTB	225	.200/.283/.350	7	2	79	-0.0
2017	30	AAALas Vegas 51s	229	.237/.304/.415	8	3	36	—	.177/.220/.293
2018	31	No MLB games played
2019	32	No MLB games played
2020	33	No MLB games played
2021	34	No MLB games played
2022	35	No MLB games played
2023	36	No MLB games played
2024	37	No MLB games played
2025	38	No MLB games played
2026	39	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015-2016

Speed52

xwOBA28

Avg EV22

Barrel%15

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	19	ROK	Princeton Devil Rays	—	246	213	59	10	1	4	22	39	6	32	5	277	361	390	751	113	322	16	9	335	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A	Columbus Catfish	—	448	387	122	21	5	9	45	53	12	45	15	315	403	465	868	150	346	12	10	386	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+	Vero Beach Devil Rays	—	102	85	22	5	1	2	14	16	0	5	2	259	364	412	775	153	294	16	14	340	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	137	114	37	6	2	3	19	16	1	15	2	325	425	491	917	167	351	12	14	399	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	383	121	25	8	8	48	52	5	37	5	316	397	486	883	170	346	12	11	387	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	24	21	4	1	1	0	2	4	1	2	2	190	292	333	625	143	235	17	8	285	77	-1	-0	+1	-5	+1	-0.5
2010	23	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	458	399	111	25	6	3	47	67	6	37	4	278	363	393	756	115	327	15	10	338	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	287	247	64	9	4	10	31	59	6	20	6	259	356	449	805	190	303	21	11	355	124	+8	+2	+1	-7	+6	1.0
2011	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	397	338	93	19	3	12	45	78	9	17	1	275	375	456	831	180	325	20	11	367	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	563	505	124	19	7	13	46	120	5	31	2	246	315	388	703	143	298	21	8	312	95	-3	+5	+4	-6	+12	1.3
2013	26	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	602	527	133	31	6	14	64	115	3	20	8	252	337	414	750	161	295	19	11	332	110	+7	+1	-3	+2	+13	2.1
2014	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	542	479	117	30	2	10	47	108	6	15	6	244	320	378	697	134	296	20	9	309	95	-3	+1	+3	+2	+12	1.5
2015	28	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	108	97	26	2	1	1	8	17	1	5	3	268	330	340	670	72	309	16	7	301	88	-2	-0	+1	-1	+2	0.0
2015	28	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	25	21	3	2	0	0	4	5	0	0	0	143	280	238	518	95	188	20	16	251	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	—	225	200	40	7	1	7	21	58	2	2	0	200	283	350	633	150	243	26	9	284	79	-6	+0	+3	-3	+5	-0.0
2016	29	A+	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	16	15	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	267	312	533	846	267	231	6	6	367	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA	Las Vegas 51s	—	229	207	49	5	4	8	20	43	0	3	3	237	304	415	719	179	259	19	9	316	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2351	2076	508	99	22	55	219	481	24	95	27	245	324	393	717	148	292	20	9	318	101	+4	+8	+10	-18	+51	5.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	19	ROK MLE	Princeton Devil Rays	—	246	221	50	8	1	3	14	55	6	32	5	226	290	312	603	86	272	22	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Columbus Catfish	—	448	402	113	18	5	8	30	71	12	45	15	281	349	410	760	129	315	16	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Devil Rays	—	102	88	21	5	1	2	11	23	0	5	2	239	323	386	710	148	279	23	11	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	137	119	36	5	2	3	14	19	1	15	2	303	381	454	834	151	331	14	10	363	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	—	442	401	117	24	8	7	32	64	5	37	5	292	352	444	795	152	325	14	7	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	24	21	4	1	1	0	2	4	1	2	2	190	292	333	625	143	235	17	8	281	77	-1	-0	+1	-5	+1	-0.5
2010	23	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	458	413	106	22	6	2	33	83	6	37	4	257	321	354	674	97	310	18	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	287	248	63	9	4	10	30	59	6	20	6	254	349	444	792	190	303	21	10	352	124	+8	+2	+1	-7	+6	1.0
2011	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	397	351	88	16	3	11	32	89	9	17	1	251	329	407	736	157	302	22	8	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	563	506	122	19	7	13	45	120	5	31	2	241	309	383	693	142	298	21	8	309	95	-3	+5	+4	-6	+12	1.3
2013	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	602	527	132	32	6	14	64	115	3	20	8	250	335	414	749	163	295	19	11	331	110	+7	+1	-3	+2	+13	2.1
2014	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	542	479	117	31	2	10	47	108	6	15	6	244	320	380	700	136	296	20	9	309	95	-3	+1	+3	+2	+12	1.5
2015	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	108	97	26	2	1	1	8	17	1	5	3	268	330	340	670	72	309	16	7	298	88	-2	-0	+1	-1	+2	0.0
2015	28	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	25	23	3	2	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	130	200	217	417	87	152	24	8	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	225	200	40	7	1	7	21	58	2	2	0	200	283	350	633	150	243	26	9	284	79	-6	+0	+3	-3	+5	-0.0
2016	29	A+ MLE	Charlotte Stone Crabs	—	16	15	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	267	312	533	846	267	182	6	6	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	229	215	38	4	3	5	12	58	0	3	3	177	220	293	513	116	208	25	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK MLE	Princeton Devil Rays	—	246	221	50	8	1	3	14	55	6	32	5	226	290	312	603	86	287	22	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK RAW	Princeton Devil Rays	—	246	213	59	10	1	4	22	39	6	32	5	277	361	390	751	113	322	16	9	335	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Columbus Catfish	—	448	402	113	18	5	8	30	71	12	45	15	281	349	410	760	129	323	16	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A RAW	Columbus Catfish	—	448	387	122	21	5	9	45	53	12	45	15	315	403	465	868	150	346	12	10	386	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Devil Rays	—	102	88	21	5	1	2	11	23	0	5	2	239	323	386	710	148	297	23	11	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ RAW	Vero Beach Devil Rays	—	102	85	22	5	1	2	14	16	0	5	2	259	364	412	775	153	294	16	14	340	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	579	520	155	30	10	10	46	83	6	52	7	298	362	452	814	154	335	14	8	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	579	497	158	31	10	11	67	68	6	52	7	318	404	487	891	169	347	12	12	390	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	482	434	110	23	7	2	35	87	7	39	6	253	319	353	672	99	312	18	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	482	420	115	26	7	3	49	71	7	39	6	274	359	390	750	117	323	15	10	336	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	684	599	153	26	7	21	62	148	15	37	7	255	340	427	768	172	306	22	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	684	585	157	28	7	22	76	137	15	37	7	268	367	453	820	185	316	20	11	362	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	563	506	122	19	7	13	45	120	5	31	2	241	309	383	693	142	291	21	8	309	95	-3	+5	+4	-6	+12	1.3
2012	25	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	563	505	124	19	7	13	46	120	5	31	2	246	315	388	703	143	298	21	8	312	95	-3	+5	+4	-6	+12	1.3
2013	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	602	527	132	32	6	14	64	115	3	20	8	250	335	414	749	163	293	19	11	331	110	+7	+1	-3	+2	+13	2.1
2013	26	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	602	527	133	31	6	14	64	115	3	20	8	252	337	414	750	161	295	19	11	332	110	+7	+1	-3	+2	+13	2.1
2014	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	542	479	117	31	2	10	47	108	6	15	6	244	320	380	700	136	296	20	9	309	95	-3	+1	+3	+2	+12	1.5
2014	27	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	—	542	479	117	30	2	10	47	108	6	15	6	244	320	378	697	134	296	20	9	309	95	-3	+1	+3	+2	+12	1.5
2015	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	133	120	29	4	1	1	10	23	1	5	3	242	305	317	622	75	286	17	8	275	72	-4	-0	+1	-1	+3	-0.2
2015	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	133	118	29	4	1	1	12	22	1	5	3	246	321	322	643	76	289	17	9	291	72	-4	-0	+1	-1	+3	-0.2
2016	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	241	215	43	8	1	8	22	59	2	3	0	200	280	358	638	158	235	24	9	283	78	-6	+1	+3	-3	+5	-0.0
2016	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	241	215	44	8	1	8	22	59	2	3	0	205	285	363	647	158	242	24	9	290	78	-6	+1	+3	-3	+5	-0.0
2017	30	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	229	215	38	4	3	5	12	58	0	3	3	177	220	293	513	116	214	25	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA RAW	Las Vegas 51s	—	229	207	49	5	4	8	20	43	0	3	3	237	304	415	719	179	259	19	9	316	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK MLE	Princeton Devil Rays	—	246	224	50	8	1	3	14	55	6	32	5	223	290	308	598	85	272	22	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Columbus Catfish	—	448	403	113	18	5	8	30	71	12	45	15	280	349	409	759	129	315	16	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ MLE	Vero Beach Devil Rays	—	102	90	21	5	1	2	11	23	0	5	2	233	323	378	701	144	279	23	11	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	579	522	155	30	10	10	46	83	6	52	7	297	362	450	812	153	326	14	8	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	482	437	110	23	7	2	35	87	7	39	6	252	319	350	669	98	306	18	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	684	602	153	26	7	21	62	148	15	37	7	254	340	425	765	171	303	22	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	563	508	122	19	7	13	45	120	5	31	2	240	309	382	691	142	298	21	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	602	530	132	32	6	14	64	115	3	20	8	249	335	411	746	162	295	19	11	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	—	542	484	117	31	2	10	47	108	6	15	6	242	320	376	696	134	296	20	9	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	133	121	29	4	1	1	10	23	1	5	3	240	305	314	619	74	279	17	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	241	215	43	8	1	8	22	59	2	3	0	200	280	358	638	158	239	24	9	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	—	229	215	38	4	3	5	12	58	0	3	3	177	220	293	513	116	208	25	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2351	2076	508	99	22	55	219	481	24	95	27	245	324	393	717	148	292	20	9	318	97	+4	+8	+10	-18	+51	5.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	140	27	6	15	61	133	7	26	7	244	324	390	715	146	291	20	9	318	97	+1	+2	+3	-5	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4851	4326	1083	208	51	97	398	950	63	287	64	250	323	389	712	139	299	20	8	311	97	+4	+8	+10	-18	+51	5.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	145	28	7	13	53	127	8	38	9	250	321	390	711	140	298	20	8	311	97	+1	+2	+3	-5	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAALas Vegas 51s · 229 PAwOBA .307 → .221 (−86)K% 18.8% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.78%	÷0.948	×1.290	—	—	25.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.86%	÷1.015	×0.710	—	×0.962	5.29%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.51%	÷0.994	×0.900	×0.971	×0.962	16.50%
Doubles /BIP	3.05%	÷0.998	×0.810	×0.971	×0.962	2.31%
Triples /BIP	2.44%	÷1.111	×0.810	×0.971	×0.962	1.66%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷1.209	×0.780	—	×0.962	3.03%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 122, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .307 → .221; ISO .179 → .113; BABIP .259 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 16 PAwOBA .356 → .266 (−90)K% 6.2% → 9.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.25%	÷0.971	×1.420	—	—	9.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.040	×0.750	—	×0.940	4.24%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.011	×0.920	—	×0.940	12.22%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.290	×0.960	—	×0.940	5.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.142	×0.880	—	×0.940	5.18%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 158, 3B 130, K 94, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .356 → .266; ISO .267 → .190; BABIP .231 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAADurham Bulls · 25 PAwOBA .245 → .178 (−67)K% 20.0% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	23.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.00%	÷1.148	×0.690	—	×0.982	9.44%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.025	×0.930	—	×0.982	5.57%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.062	×0.830	—	×0.982	9.59%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.039	×0.840	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 105, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .245 → .178; ISO .095 → .077; BABIP .188 → .152. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAADurham Bulls · 397 PAwOBA .356 → .323 (−32)K% 19.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.65%	÷1.051	×1.200	—	—	22.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.58%	÷0.938	×0.690	—	×1.033	8.04%
HBP% /PA	2.27%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	2.20%
Singles /BIP	22.69%	÷0.969	×0.930	×0.971	×1.033	21.84%
Doubles /BIP	7.31%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.971	×1.033	6.12%
Triples /BIP	1.15%	÷1.017	×0.970	×0.971	×1.033	1.10%
Home runs /BIP	4.62%	÷0.960	×0.840	—	×1.033	4.17%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 110, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .356 → .323; ISO .180 → .165; BABIP .325 → .302. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAADurham Bulls · 458 PAwOBA .330 → .296 (−33)K% 14.6% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.63%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	18.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.04%	÷0.999	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.27%
HBP% /PA	1.31%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.29%
Singles /BIP	23.19%	÷1.037	×0.930	×1.037	×1.048	22.61%
Doubles /BIP	7.53%	÷1.026	×0.830	×1.037	×1.048	6.62%
Triples /BIP	1.81%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.037	×1.048	1.66%
Home runs /BIP	0.90%	÷1.151	×0.840	—	×1.048	0.69%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .330 → .296; ISO .115 → .101; BABIP .327 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 442 PAwOBA .379 → .344 (−36)K% 11.8% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	14.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.41%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.027	7.27%
HBP% /PA	1.13%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.98%
Singles /BIP	24.17%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.004	×1.027	22.92%
Doubles /BIP	7.55%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.004	×1.027	7.09%
Triples /BIP	2.42%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.004	×1.027	2.19%
Home runs /BIP	2.42%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	1.99%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .379 → .344; ISO .170 → .156; BABIP .346 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAADurham Bulls · 137 PAwOBA .395 → .363 (−32)K% 11.7% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.68%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	14.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.87%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	10.05%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.72%
Singles /BIP	26.53%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.985	×1.050	25.53%
Doubles /BIP	6.12%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.985	×1.050	5.26%
Triples /BIP	2.04%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.985	×1.050	2.05%
Home runs /BIP	3.06%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.70%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .395 → .363; ISO .167 → .158; BABIP .351 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 A+Vero Beach Devil Rays · 102 PAwOBA .334 → .296 (−38)K% 15.7% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.69%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	22.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.73%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.012	10.42%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.29%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.016	×1.012	19.20%
Doubles /BIP	7.25%	÷1.000	×0.960	×1.016	×1.012	7.15%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.016	×1.012	1.21%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.58%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .334 → .296; ISO .153 → .140; BABIP .294 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).