Danny Dorn
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 29 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 695 | .268/.352/.479 | 31 | 8 | 98 | — | .218/.271/.397 | |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 414 | .290/.372/.487 | 13 | 1 | 84 | — | .216/.278/.375 | |
| 2015 | 31 | AAATOR | 329 | .374/.438/.595 | 10 | 2 | 144 | — | .328/.376/.518 | |
| 2015 | 31 | MLBARI | 32 | .167/.219/.200 | 0 | 0 | 17 | -0.6 | ||
| 2016 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2017 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2018 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2019 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 39 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 40 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 41 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 42 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 22 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 249 | 206 | 73 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 36 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 354 | 459 | 573 | 1.032 | 218 | 399 | 14 | 14 | 447 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 109 | 90 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 311 | 426 | 667 | 1.093 | 356 | 333 | 21 | 14 | 462 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | A+ | Sarasota Reds | — | 387 | 338 | 95 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 69 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 281 | 364 | 456 | 819 | 175 | 317 | 18 | 8 | 362 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 388 | 336 | 93 | 21 | 2 | 21 | 42 | 84 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 277 | 369 | 539 | 908 | 262 | 309 | 22 | 11 | 394 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | A+ | Sarasota Reds | — | 21 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 286 | 500 | 786 | 250 | 364 | 38 | 5 | 341 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 396 | 357 | 98 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 30 | 78 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 275 | 339 | 457 | 796 | 182 | 313 | 20 | 8 | 350 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 319 | 275 | 83 | 24 | 2 | 13 | 38 | 81 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 398 | 545 | 944 | 244 | 387 | 25 | 12 | 413 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | INTL | Leones del Caracas | — | 43 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 190 | 244 | 434 | 73 | 286 | 44 | 2 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 494 | 448 | 111 | 30 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 133 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 248 | 312 | 440 | 752 | 192 | 309 | 27 | 7 | 330 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 456 | 393 | 99 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 50 | 108 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 252 | 348 | 433 | 781 | 181 | 308 | 24 | 11 | 346 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 565 | 496 | 128 | 21 | 2 | 25 | 58 | 131 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 258 | 339 | 460 | 799 | 202 | 297 | 23 | 10 | 349 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | INTL | Leones del Caracas | — | 130 | 112 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 312 | 408 | 562 | 970 | 250 | 362 | 20 | 9 | 425 | 174 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 288 | 247 | 75 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 57 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 304 | 388 | 551 | 939 | 247 | 342 | 20 | 11 | 399 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 126 | 112 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 259 | 336 | 348 | 684 | 89 | 333 | 22 | 9 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 32 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 219 | 200 | 419 | 33 | 250 | 31 | 6 | 197 | 17 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 329 | 289 | 108 | 28 | 3 | 10 | 28 | 52 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 374 | 438 | 595 | 1.033 | 221 | 421 | 16 | 9 | 442 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 32 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 219 | 200 | 419 | 33 | 250 | 31 | 6 | 197 | 19 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 249 | 221 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 52 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 258 | 333 | 403 | 736 | 145 | 303 | 21 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 109 | 95 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 361 | 579 | 940 | 305 | 307 | 26 | 9 | 388 | 149 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | A+ MLE | Sarasota Reds | — | 387 | 348 | 82 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 98 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 236 | 304 | 382 | 686 | 147 | 286 | 25 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 388 | 350 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 17 | 28 | 102 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 304 | 446 | 750 | 211 | 272 | 26 | 7 | 318 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | A+ MLE | Sarasota Reds | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 350 | 540 | 200 | 334 | 52 | 5 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 396 | 366 | 87 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 93 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 288 | 388 | 676 | 150 | 279 | 23 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 319 | 286 | 70 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 102 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 323 | 437 | 760 | 192 | 342 | 32 | 8 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 494 | 463 | 90 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 165 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 194 | 239 | 346 | 584 | 151 | 259 | 33 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 456 | 410 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 136 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 200 | 273 | 351 | 624 | 151 | 253 | 30 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 565 | 519 | 113 | 17 | 2 | 24 | 35 | 155 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 218 | 271 | 397 | 668 | 179 | 247 | 27 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 288 | 259 | 56 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 76 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 216 | 278 | 375 | 652 | 158 | 257 | 26 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 32 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 219 | 200 | 419 | 33 | 250 | 31 | 6 | 193 | 17 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 329 | 299 | 98 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 62 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 328 | 376 | 518 | 894 | 191 | 371 | 19 | 5 | 381 | 144 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 249 | 221 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 52 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 258 | 333 | 403 | 736 | 145 | 311 | 21 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 22 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 249 | 206 | 73 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 36 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 354 | 459 | 573 | 1.032 | 218 | 399 | 14 | 14 | 447 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 442 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 17 | 33 | 126 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 318 | 423 | 741 | 179 | 298 | 25 | 7 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 496 | 428 | 123 | 27 | 2 | 20 | 47 | 92 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 287 | 378 | 500 | 878 | 213 | 320 | 19 | 9 | 384 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 371 | 85 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 28 | 114 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 296 | 439 | 735 | 210 | 278 | 28 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 409 | 356 | 98 | 23 | 2 | 22 | 43 | 92 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 275 | 365 | 537 | 901 | 261 | 311 | 22 | 11 | 391 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 396 | 366 | 87 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 93 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 288 | 388 | 676 | 150 | 284 | 23 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 396 | 357 | 98 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 30 | 78 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 275 | 339 | 457 | 796 | 182 | 313 | 20 | 8 | 350 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 362 | 325 | 79 | 24 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 116 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 243 | 319 | 431 | 749 | 188 | 343 | 32 | 8 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 362 | 316 | 90 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 39 | 100 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 285 | 374 | 506 | 880 | 222 | 376 | 28 | 11 | 387 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 494 | 463 | 90 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 165 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 194 | 239 | 346 | 584 | 151 | 261 | 33 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 494 | 448 | 111 | 30 | 1 | 18 | 36 | 133 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 248 | 312 | 440 | 752 | 192 | 309 | 27 | 7 | 330 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 456 | 410 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 136 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 200 | 273 | 351 | 624 | 151 | 259 | 30 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA RAW | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 456 | 393 | 99 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 50 | 108 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 252 | 348 | 433 | 781 | 181 | 308 | 24 | 11 | 346 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 695 | 635 | 137 | 20 | 2 | 29 | 43 | 191 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 216 | 275 | 391 | 666 | 175 | 256 | 27 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 695 | 608 | 163 | 29 | 3 | 31 | 70 | 157 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 268 | 352 | 479 | 831 | 211 | 309 | 23 | 10 | 363 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 373 | 81 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 29 | 110 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 217 | 281 | 381 | 661 | 164 | 267 | 27 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 414 | 359 | 104 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 43 | 85 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 290 | 372 | 487 | 859 | 198 | 340 | 21 | 10 | 372 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 329 | 103 | 25 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 72 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 313 | 362 | 489 | 851 | 176 | 370 | 20 | 6 | 364 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 361 | 319 | 113 | 29 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 62 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 354 | 418 | 558 | 976 | 204 | 407 | 17 | 8 | 420 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 249 | 222 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 52 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 257 | 333 | 401 | 734 | 144 | 303 | 21 | 8 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 496 | 445 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 17 | 33 | 126 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 243 | 318 | 420 | 739 | 178 | 291 | 25 | 7 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 371 | 85 | 20 | 2 | 18 | 28 | 114 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 296 | 439 | 735 | 210 | 275 | 28 | 7 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 396 | 367 | 87 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 21 | 93 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 237 | 288 | 387 | 675 | 150 | 279 | 23 | 5 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 362 | 323 | 79 | 24 | 2 | 11 | 30 | 116 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 245 | 319 | 433 | 752 | 189 | 342 | 32 | 8 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 494 | 464 | 90 | 23 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 165 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 194 | 239 | 345 | 584 | 151 | 259 | 33 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 456 | 412 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 136 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 199 | 273 | 350 | 622 | 150 | 253 | 30 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 29 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 695 | 638 | 137 | 20 | 2 | 29 | 43 | 191 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 215 | 275 | 389 | 664 | 174 | 247 | 27 | 6 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 378 | 81 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 29 | 110 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 281 | 376 | 656 | 161 | 257 | 27 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 31 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 333 | 103 | 25 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 72 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 309 | 362 | 483 | 845 | 174 | 360 | 20 | 6 | 364 | 133 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 32 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 219 | 200 | 419 | 33 | 250 | 31 | 6 | 197 | 89 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 609 | 101 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 166 | 218 | 199 | 417 | 33 | 249 | 31 | 6 | 197 | 89 | -62 | +0 | +2 | -79 | +14 | -12.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4332 | 3935 | 909 | 197 | 22 | 142 | 279 | 1175 | 69 | 28 | 9 | 231 | 293 | 401 | 694 | 170 | 288 | 27 | 6 | 300 | 89 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +1 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 136 | 30 | 3 | 21 | 42 | 176 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 292 | 398 | 691 | 168 | 288 | 27 | 6 | 300 | 89 | -62 | +0 | +2 | -79 | +14 | -12.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAABuffalo Bisons · 329 PAwOBA .438 → .381 (−57)K% 15.8% → 18.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.81% | ÷1.008 | ×1.200 | — | — | 18.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.51% | ÷1.040 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.27% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×0.989 | ×0.962 | 25.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.81% | ÷0.944 | ×0.830 | ×0.989 | ×0.962 | 9.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×0.962 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.22% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.962 | 3.53% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .438 → .381; ISO .221 → .195; BABIP .421 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAReno Aces · 288 PAwOBA .396 → .285 (−111)K% 19.8% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.79% | ÷0.965 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.76% | ÷1.049 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.972 | 7.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.972 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.16% | ÷1.047 | ×0.900 | ×0.952 | ×0.972 | 18.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.84% | ÷1.047 | ×0.810 | ×0.952 | ×0.972 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.16% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.952 | ×0.972 | 2.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.32% | ÷1.116 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.972 | 4.29% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 109, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .396 → .285; ISO .247 → .168; BABIP .342 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 565 PAwOBA .342 → .286 (−56)K% 23.2% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.19% | ÷1.011 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.56% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.92% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 18.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.75% | ÷0.994 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 4.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.55% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.85% | ÷0.883 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 6.40% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .342 → .286; ISO .202 → .184; BABIP .297 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 456 PAwOBA .339 → .272 (−67)K% 23.7% → 29.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.68% | ÷0.952 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.35% | ÷1.045 | ×0.930 | ×0.954 | ×0.992 | 17.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.77% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×0.954 | ×0.992 | 6.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.954 | ×0.992 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.91% | ÷0.913 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 4.48% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 109, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 90, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .339 → .272; ISO .181 → .154; BABIP .308 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAALouisville Bats · 494 PAwOBA .321 → .257 (−64)K% 26.9% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.92% | ÷0.966 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.48% | ÷1.070 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 4.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.21% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.68% | ÷1.033 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 16.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 7.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷0.924 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.71% | ÷0.944 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 5.10% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 85, K 93, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .321 → .257; ISO .192 → .160; BABIP .309 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAALouisville Bats · 319 PAwOBA .401 → .327 (−74)K% 25.4% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.39% | ÷0.952 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.29% | ÷0.942 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 8.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.68% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 20.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.37% | ÷0.858 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 11.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.70% | ÷1.093 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 5.24% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 104, 2B 72, 3B 130, K 90, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .401 → .327; ISO .244 → .194; BABIP .387 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAALouisville Bats · 396 PAwOBA .342 → .293 (−49)K% 19.7% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.70% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.26% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.960 | ×1.033 | 20.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.960 | ×1.033 | 6.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.960 | ×1.033 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 4.35% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .342 → .293; ISO .182 → .155; BABIP .313 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 388 PAwOBA .383 → .318 (−65)K% 21.6% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 7.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.80% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 17.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 7.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.966 | ×1.012 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 6.75% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .383 → .318; ISO .262 → .218; BABIP .309 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .