Chris Denorfia

PosRF

B/TR/R

Born1980-07-15

Age (2027)47

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2017

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2015	35	MLBCHC	231	.269/.320/.373	3	0	91	0.1
2016	36	AAA/ROK2 orgs	143	.269/.331/.408	4	2	57	—	.230/.268/.334
2017	37	AAACOL	61	.275/.383/.353	0	4	51	—	.204/.283/.241
2018	38	No MLB games played
2019	39	No MLB games played
2020	40	No MLB games played
2021	41	No MLB games played
2022	42	No MLB games played
2023	43	No MLB games played
2024	44	No MLB games played
2025	45	No MLB games played
2026	46	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015

xwOBA50

Avg EV37

Speed30

Barrel%16

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	44	38	10	3	0	1	6	9	0	1	0	263	364	421	785	158	321	20	14	353	125	+1	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.5
2005	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	374	323	100	12	6	13	41	54	4	8	3	310	394	505	899	195	336	14	11	391	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	209	188	62	17	3	7	17	38	2	4	3	330	391	564	955	234	385	18	8	413	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	120	106	30	6	0	1	11	21	1	1	1	283	356	368	724	85	345	18	9	325	102	+0	-0	+6	-5	+3	0.4
2006	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	353	312	109	19	1	7	34	41	1	15	1	349	415	484	899	135	379	12	10	394	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	71	62	18	3	0	1	6	16	1	2	0	290	362	387	749	97	378	23	8	331	110	+1	+0	-4	+1	+2	-0.1
2008	28	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	204	189	57	13	1	2	12	31	0	5	4	302	343	413	756	111	350	15	6	333	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	474	432	117	18	5	9	31	52	1	15	6	271	321	398	719	127	286	11	7	315	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	317	284	77	15	2	9	27	51	2	8	4	271	339	433	772	162	300	16	9	340	114	+5	+0	-0	+2	+7	1.4
2010	30	AAA	Portland Beavers	—	134	121	37	10	4	2	12	18	0	7	1	306	368	504	873	198	347	13	9	379	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	340	307	85	13	2	5	28	49	1	11	6	277	339	381	720	104	314	14	8	322	105	+2	-0	-1	-4	+7	0.5
2011	31	AAA	Tucson Padres	—	20	17	2	1	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	118	250	176	426	59	154	20	15	214	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	382	348	102	19	6	8	27	52	2	13	5	293	347	451	799	158	323	14	7	349	126	+12	+1	-4	-4	+8	1.3
2013	33	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	520	473	132	21	2	10	42	84	1	11	0	279	339	395	734	116	319	16	8	328	109	+6	+2	+5	-6	+11	1.9
2014	34	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	358	330	76	12	4	3	25	70	0	9	3	230	285	318	603	88	283	20	7	271	71	-12	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.9
2015	35	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	231	212	57	11	1	3	15	56	1	0	1	269	320	373	693	104	351	24	6	308	91	-2	-0	+1	-2	+5	0.1
2016	36	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	120	110	28	2	0	4	9	17	0	2	0	255	311	382	693	127	267	14	8	309	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	ROK	AZL Giants	—	23	20	7	4	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	350	435	550	985	200	438	17	9	434	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	61	51	14	0	2	0	9	13	0	4	0	275	383	353	736	78	368	21	15	334	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2383	2160	587	103	17	41	187	408	9	56	20	272	332	392	724	120	317	17	8	322	104	+12	+3	+2	-20	+52	5.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	44	38	10	3	0	1	6	9	0	1	0	263	364	421	785	158	321	20	14	353	125	+1	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.5
2005	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	374	336	100	11	6	12	28	65	4	8	3	298	359	473	832	176	329	17	7	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	209	194	59	16	3	6	11	46	2	4	3	304	348	510	858	206	365	22	5	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	120	107	30	6	0	1	10	21	1	1	1	280	347	364	712	84	345	18	8	319	102	+0	-0	+6	-5	+3	0.4
2006	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	353	325	108	17	1	6	21	49	1	15	1	332	375	446	821	114	364	14	6	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	71	62	18	3	0	1	6	16	1	2	0	290	362	387	749	97	378	23	8	331	110	+1	+0	-4	+1	+2	-0.1
2008	28	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	204	193	52	11	1	2	8	40	0	5	4	269	299	368	666	98	318	20	4	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	474	441	105	15	4	7	22	67	1	15	6	238	276	338	614	100	256	14	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	317	287	78	16	2	9	24	51	2	8	4	272	332	436	768	164	300	16	8	337	114	+5	+0	-0	+2	+7	1.4
2010	30	AAA MLE	Portland Beavers	—	134	125	34	9	3	2	8	22	0	7	1	272	316	440	756	168	312	16	6	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	340	308	86	14	2	5	27	49	1	11	6	279	339	386	726	107	314	14	8	324	105	+2	-0	-1	-4	+7	0.5
2011	31	AAA MLE	Tucson Padres	—	20	18	2	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	111	200	167	367	56	125	30	10	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	382	348	104	20	6	8	27	52	2	13	5	299	353	460	813	161	323	14	7	355	126	+12	+1	-4	-4	+8	1.3
2013	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	520	475	134	22	2	10	40	84	1	11	0	282	339	400	739	118	319	16	8	330	109	+6	+2	+5	-6	+11	1.9
2014	34	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	358	330	76	12	4	3	25	70	0	9	3	230	285	318	603	88	283	20	7	274	71	-12	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.9
2015	35	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	231	213	57	11	1	3	14	56	1	0	1	268	316	371	687	103	351	24	6	303	91	-2	-0	+1	-2	+5	0.1
2016	36	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	120	114	26	2	0	3	5	21	0	2	0	228	261	325	585	96	241	18	4	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	—	23	21	5	3	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	238	304	381	685	143	314	26	4	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	61	54	11	0	1	0	6	18	0	4	0	204	283	241	524	37	297	30	10	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	627	568	168	30	9	18	45	120	6	13	6	296	354	475	829	180	346	19	7	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	627	549	172	32	9	21	64	101	6	13	6	313	391	519	910	206	351	16	10	395	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	473	432	138	23	1	7	31	70	2	16	2	319	368	426	794	106	364	15	7	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	473	418	139	25	1	8	45	62	2	16	2	333	400	455	855	122	371	13	10	377	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	275	255	70	14	1	3	14	56	1	7	4	275	315	373	687	98	340	20	5	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	275	251	75	16	1	3	18	47	1	7	4	299	348	406	755	108	356	17	7	333	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	474	441	105	15	4	7	22	67	1	15	6	238	276	338	614	100	263	14	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	—	474	432	117	18	5	9	31	52	1	15	6	271	321	398	719	127	286	11	7	315	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	451	412	112	25	5	11	32	73	2	15	5	272	327	437	764	165	305	16	7	331	110	+6	+1	-0	+2	+10	1.8
2010	30	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	451	405	114	25	6	11	39	69	2	15	5	281	348	454	802	173	314	15	9	351	110	+6	+1	-0	+2	+10	1.8
2011	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	360	326	88	15	2	5	29	55	1	11	6	270	331	374	706	104	310	15	8	314	99	-0	-0	-1	-4	+8	0.3
2011	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	360	324	87	14	2	5	31	53	1	11	6	269	334	370	705	102	306	15	9	316	99	-0	-0	-1	-4	+8	0.3
2012	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	382	348	104	20	6	8	27	52	2	13	5	299	353	460	813	161	330	14	7	355	126	+12	+1	-4	-4	+8	1.3
2012	32	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	382	348	102	19	6	8	27	52	2	13	5	293	347	451	799	158	323	14	7	349	126	+12	+1	-4	-4	+8	1.3
2013	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	520	475	134	22	2	10	40	84	1	11	0	282	339	400	739	118	322	16	8	330	109	+6	+2	+5	-6	+11	1.9
2013	33	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	520	473	132	21	2	10	42	84	1	11	0	279	339	395	734	116	319	16	8	328	109	+6	+2	+5	-6	+11	1.9
2014	34	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	358	330	76	12	4	3	25	70	0	9	3	230	285	318	603	88	283	20	7	274	71	-12	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.9
2014	34	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	358	330	76	12	4	3	25	70	0	9	3	230	285	318	603	88	283	20	7	271	71	-12	+1	-1	-4	+8	-0.9
2015	35	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	231	213	57	11	1	3	14	56	1	0	1	268	316	371	687	103	348	24	6	303	91	-2	-0	+1	-2	+5	0.1
2015	35	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	231	212	57	11	1	3	15	56	1	0	1	269	320	373	693	104	351	24	6	308	91	-2	-0	+1	-2	+5	0.1
2016	36	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	143	135	30	4	0	3	6	27	1	2	0	222	261	319	579	96	255	19	4	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	143	130	35	6	0	4	11	21	1	2	0	269	331	408	739	138	292	15	8	329	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	61	54	11	0	1	0	6	18	0	4	0	204	283	241	524	37	306	30	10	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	61	51	14	0	2	0	9	13	0	4	0	275	383	353	736	78	368	21	15	334	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	627	571	168	30	9	18	45	120	6	13	6	294	354	473	827	179	340	19	7	356	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	473	437	138	23	1	7	31	70	2	16	2	316	368	421	789	105	359	15	7	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	275	258	70	14	1	3	14	56	1	7	4	271	315	368	683	97	333	20	5	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	474	448	105	15	4	7	22	67	1	15	6	234	276	333	608	98	256	14	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	30	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	451	414	112	25	5	11	32	73	2	15	5	271	327	435	762	164	303	16	7	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	360	327	88	15	2	5	29	55	1	11	6	269	331	373	705	104	303	15	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	32	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	382	350	104	20	6	8	27	52	2	13	5	297	353	457	810	160	323	14	7	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	33	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	520	474	134	22	2	10	40	84	1	11	0	283	339	401	740	118	319	16	8	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	34	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	358	330	76	12	4	3	25	70	0	9	3	230	285	318	603	88	283	20	7	274	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	35	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	231	214	57	11	1	3	14	56	1	0	1	266	316	369	685	103	351	24	6	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	36	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	143	135	30	4	0	3	6	27	1	2	0	222	261	319	579	96	253	19	4	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	37	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	61	55	11	0	1	0	6	18	0	4	0	200	283	236	520	36	297	30	10	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2383	2160	587	103	17	41	187	408	9	56	20	272	332	392	724	120	317	17	8	322	101	+12	+3	+2	-20	+52	5.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	160	28	5	11	51	111	2	15	5	272	332	392	724	121	316	17	8	322	101	+3	+1	+1	-5	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4355	3989	1093	191	36	78	291	748	18	116	38	274	326	399	725	125	318	17	7	318	101	+12	+3	+2	-20	+52	5.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	164	29	5	12	43	112	3	17	6	276	327	402	729	126	320	17	7	318	101	+3	+1	+1	-5	+14	1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 61 PAwOBA .326 → .243 (−83)K% 21.3% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.31%	÷0.956	×1.290	—	—	28.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.75%	÷0.996	×0.710	—	×0.940	9.88%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	31.58%	÷1.019	×0.900	—	×0.940	26.21%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.045	×0.810	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	5.26%	÷1.150	×0.810	—	×0.940	3.48%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.202	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 37 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .326 → .243; ISO .078 → .051; BABIP .368 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAASacramento River Cats · 120 PAwOBA .300 → .247 (−53)K% 14.2% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.17%	÷1.034	×1.290	—	—	17.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.052	×0.710	—	×0.940	4.23%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.66%	÷0.960	×0.900	×1.050	×0.940	21.89%
Doubles /BIP	2.15%	÷0.973	×0.810	×1.050	×0.940	1.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.050	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.30%	÷1.082	×0.780	—	×0.940	2.91%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 92, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 107, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .300 → .247; ISO .127 → .090; BABIP .267 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ROKAZL Giants · 23 PAwOBA .423 → .282 (−140)K% 17.4% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	25.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.940	5.07%
HBP% /PA	4.35%	—	×0.720	—	×0.940	2.94%
Singles /BIP	18.75%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.940	14.45%
Doubles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	16.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (16.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .423 → .282; ISO .200 → .130; BABIP .438 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAATucson Padres · 20 PAwOBA .210 → .153 (−57)K% 20.0% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.935	×1.290	—	—	27.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.00%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×0.962	10.28%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.022	×0.900	—	×0.962	6.52%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷1.001	×0.810	—	×0.962	5.99%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.968	×0.780	—	×0.962	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 87, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .210 → .153; ISO .059 → .044; BABIP .154 → .125. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAPortland Beavers · 134 PAwOBA .369 → .318 (−52)K% 13.4% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.43%	÷1.055	×1.290	—	—	16.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.96%	÷1.042	×0.710	—	×0.972	5.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.39%	÷0.945	×0.900	×1.016	×0.972	19.16%
Doubles /BIP	9.71%	÷0.945	×0.810	×1.016	×0.972	8.21%
Triples /BIP	3.88%	÷0.939	×0.810	×1.016	×0.972	3.31%
Home runs /BIP	1.94%	÷0.875	×0.780	—	×0.972	1.68%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 89, 2B 89, 3B 88, K 111, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .369 → .318; ISO .198 → .171; BABIP .347 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAASacramento River Cats · 474 PAwOBA .310 → .266 (−44)K% 11.0% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.97%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	14.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.54%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.982	4.56%
HBP% /PA	0.21%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.20%
Singles /BIP	22.37%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.040	×0.982	20.56%
Doubles /BIP	4.74%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.040	×0.982	3.92%
Triples /BIP	1.32%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.040	×0.982	1.09%
Home runs /BIP	2.37%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.982	1.81%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .310 → .266; ISO .127 → .103; BABIP .286 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAASacramento River Cats · 204 PAwOBA .326 → .279 (−46)K% 15.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.20%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	19.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.992	4.14%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.95%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.046	×0.992	24.23%
Doubles /BIP	8.23%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.046	×0.992	6.91%
Triples /BIP	0.63%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.046	×0.992	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	1.27%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.992	0.98%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .326 → .279; ISO .111 → .090; BABIP .350 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 AAALouisville Bats · 353 PAwOBA .386 → .362 (−24)K% 11.6% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.61%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	13.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.50%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.97%
HBP% /PA	0.28%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.27%
Singles /BIP	30.26%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.037	×1.018	29.72%
Doubles /BIP	7.01%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.037	×1.018	6.15%
Triples /BIP	0.37%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.037	×1.018	0.38%
Home runs /BIP	2.58%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.018	2.21%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .386 → .362; ISO .135 → .122; BABIP .379 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).