Welington Castillo

PosC

B/TR/R

Born1987-04-24

Age (2027)40

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	32	INTLTigres del Li…	43	.162/.262/.216	0	0	38	—
2019	32	MLBCWS	251	.209/.269/.417	12	0	88	0.1
2020	33	INTLTigres del Li…	40	.211/.250/.395	2	0	78	—
2021	34	AAAWSH	37	.143/.351/.179	0	0	20	—	.125/.243/.156
2022	35	No MLB games played
2023	36	No MLB games played
2024	37	No MLB games played
2025	38	No MLB games played
2026	39	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2017-2019

Barrel%65

xwOBA63

Avg EV58

Speed10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	19	ROK	AZL Cubs	—	28	26	5	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	192	250	192	442		250	21	4	213	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	353	317	86	11	2	11	23	77	8	1	3	271	336	423	759	151	325	22	7	335	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	220	198	59	11	0	4	14	50	6	0	0	298	362	414	777	116	382	23	6	347	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	127	121	33	8	0	0	4	23	1	1	0	273	302	339	640	66	333	18	3	287	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	339	319	74	16	0	11	15	71	4	1	0	232	275	386	661	154	266	21	4	293	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	21	20	6	4	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	300	333	650	983	350	417	33	5	420	168	+2	+0	+0	+7	+0	1.0
2010	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	272	239	61	17	1	13	19	58	6	0	2	255	326	498	824	243	274	21	7	350	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	INTL	Dominican Republic	—	98	91	17	1	1	3	5	25	0	0	0	187	229	319	548	132	222	26	5	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	251	227	65	9	0	15	20	57	3	0	0	286	352	524	876	238	321	23	8	383	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	49	42	10	3	0	1	6	9	0	0	0	238	333	381	714	143	273	18	12	317	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	190	170	45	11	0	5	17	51	2	0	0	265	339	418	756	153	348	27	9	337	109	+2	+0	+1	+7	+4	1.4
2012	25	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	176	146	38	6	0	6	23	37	5	0	0	260	379	425	804	164	305	21	13	360	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	17	11	4	0	0	2	5	3	1	0	0	364	588	909	1.497	545	333	18	29	600	216	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	428	380	104	23	0	8	34	97	11	2	0	274	351	397	748	124	347	23	8	337	110	+5	+0	-8	+8	+9	1.5
2014	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	417	380	90	19	0	13	26	102	7	0	0	237	298	389	687	153	288	24	6	305	93	-3	+0	-4	+7	+9	0.9
2015	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	378	342	81	15	1	19	25	92	6	0	0	237	300	453	753	216	263	24	7	328	102	+1	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.4
2016	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	457	416	110	24	0	14	33	121	4	2	0	264	325	423	748	159	337	26	7	331	102	+1	+0	+7	+8	+10	2.7
2017	30	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	365	341	96	11	0	20	22	97	0	0	0	282	325	490	815	208	336	27	6	356	119	+8	+0	+4	+7	+8	2.7
2018	31	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	181	170	44	7	0	6	9	46	2	1	0	259	304	406	710	147	322	25	5	316	99	-0	+0	-4	+4	+4	0.4
2018	31	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	40	37	7	1	0	0	3	11	0	0	0	189	250	216	466	27	269	28	8	220	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	251	230	48	12	0	12	16	74	3	0	0	209	269	417	686	209	247	29	6	301	88	-4	+0	-7	+5	+5	0.1
2019	32	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	43	37	6	2	0	0	5	9	0	0	0	162	262	216	478	54	214	21	12	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	33	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	40	38	8	1	0	2	2	13	0	0	0	211	250	395	645	184	261	32	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	37	28	4	1	0	0	9	10	0	0	0	143	351	179	530	36	222	27	24	278	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2688	2449	624	126	1	98	183	687	35	5	0	255	316	427	743	172	313	26	7	328	108	+26	+1	-13	+60	+58	13.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	28	26	4	0	0	0	1	9	1	0	0	154	214	154	368		207	32	4	151	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	353	324	77	9	2	9	16	105	8	1	3	238	290	361	651	123	307	30	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	220	203	58	11	0	3	9	61	6	0	0	286	335	384	719	99	384	28	4	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	127	122	31	8	0	0	3	33	1	1	0	254	278	320	597	66	330	26	2	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	339	325	65	14	0	9	9	87	4	1	0	200	231	326	557	126	245	26	3	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	21	20	6	4	0	1	1	7	0	0	0	300	333	650	983	350	417	33	5	417	168	+2	+0	+0	+7	+0	1.0
2010	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	272	246	53	14	1	12	12	73	6	0	2	215	269	427	696	211	233	27	4	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	251	233	56	7	0	12	14	76	3	0	0	240	292	425	717	185	296	30	6	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	49	44	9	3	0	1	4	12	0	0	0	205	271	341	612	136	241	24	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	190	172	45	11	0	5	15	51	2	0	0	262	328	413	741	151	348	27	8	330	109	+2	+0	+1	+7	+4	1.4
2012	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	176	151	33	5	0	5	18	48	5	0	0	219	322	351	673	132	271	27	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	17	13	4	0	0	2	3	4	1	0	0	308	471	769	1.240	462	288	24	18	488	216	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	428	383	103	22	0	8	31	97	11	2	0	269	341	389	730	120	347	23	7	331	110	+5	+0	-8	+8	+9	1.5
2014	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	417	380	90	18	0	14	26	102	7	0	0	237	298	395	693	158	288	24	6	306	93	-3	+0	-4	+7	+9	0.9
2015	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	378	343	80	14	1	19	24	92	6	0	0	233	295	446	741	213	263	24	6	319	102	+1	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.4
2016	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	457	419	108	22	0	14	30	121	4	2	0	258	313	411	724	153	337	26	7	319	102	+1	+0	+7	+8	+10	2.7
2017	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	365	341	93	11	0	18	22	97	0	0	0	273	317	463	780	191	336	27	6	344	119	+8	+0	+4	+7	+8	2.7
2018	31	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	181	170	44	7	0	6	9	46	2	1	0	259	304	406	710	147	322	25	5	315	99	-0	+0	-4	+4	+4	0.4
2018	31	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	40	38	6	1	0	0	2	13	0	0	0	158	200	184	384	26	229	32	5	164	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	251	230	48	12	0	12	16	74	3	0	0	209	269	417	686	209	247	29	6	298	88	-4	+0	-7	+5	+5	0.1
2021	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	37	32	4	1	0	0	5	12	0	0	0	125	243	156	399	31	190	32	14	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	28	26	4	0	0	0	1	9	1	0	0	154	214	154	368		235	32	4	151	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK RAW	AZL Cubs	—	28	26	5	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	192	250	192	442		250	21	4	213	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	353	324	77	9	2	9	16	105	8	1	3	238	290	361	651	123	321	30	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	353	317	86	11	2	11	23	77	8	1	3	271	336	423	759	151	325	22	7	335	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	347	325	87	18	0	3	12	94	7	1	0	268	308	351	659	83	367	27	3	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	347	319	92	19	0	4	18	73	7	1	0	288	340	386	726	97	362	21	5	325	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	339	325	65	14	0	9	9	87	4	1	0	200	231	326	557	126	245	26	3	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	—	339	319	74	16	0	11	15	71	4	1	0	232	275	386	661	154	266	21	4	293	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	391	357	77	23	1	17	18	107	6	0	2	216	265	429	694	213	250	27	5	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	391	350	84	22	2	17	25	90	6	0	2	240	302	460	762	220	268	23	6	326	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	300	277	65	10	0	13	18	88	3	0	0	235	289	412	700	177	292	29	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	300	269	75	12	0	16	26	66	3	0	0	279	349	502	851	223	312	22	9	372	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	383	336	81	15	0	12	36	102	8	0	0	241	329	393	722	152	307	27	9	325	106	+3	+0	+1	+7	+8	1.9
2012	25	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	383	327	87	17	0	13	45	91	8	0	0	266	368	437	806	171	327	24	12	360	106	+3	+0	+1	+7	+8	1.9
2013	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	428	383	103	22	0	8	31	97	11	2	0	269	341	389	730	120	339	23	7	331	110	+5	+0	-8	+8	+9	1.5
2013	26	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	428	380	104	23	0	8	34	97	11	2	0	274	351	397	748	124	347	23	8	337	110	+5	+0	-8	+8	+9	1.5
2014	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	417	380	90	18	0	14	26	102	7	0	0	237	298	395	693	158	286	24	6	306	93	-3	+0	-4	+7	+9	0.9
2014	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	417	380	90	19	0	13	26	102	7	0	0	237	298	389	687	153	288	24	6	305	93	-3	+0	-4	+7	+9	0.9
2015	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	378	343	80	14	1	19	24	92	6	0	0	233	295	446	741	213	257	24	6	319	102	+1	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.4
2015	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	378	342	81	15	1	19	25	92	6	0	0	237	300	453	753	216	263	24	7	328	102	+1	+0	-2	+7	+8	1.4
2016	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	457	419	108	22	0	14	30	121	4	2	0	258	313	411	724	153	326	26	7	319	102	+1	+0	+7	+8	+10	2.7
2016	29	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	457	416	110	24	0	14	33	121	4	2	0	264	325	423	748	159	337	26	7	331	102	+1	+0	+7	+8	+10	2.7
2017	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	365	341	93	11	0	18	22	97	0	0	0	273	317	463	780	191	329	27	6	344	119	+8	+0	+4	+7	+8	2.7
2017	30	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	365	341	96	11	0	20	22	97	0	0	0	282	325	490	815	208	336	27	6	356	119	+8	+0	+4	+7	+8	2.7
2018	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	221	208	50	8	0	6	11	59	2	1	0	240	285	365	650	125	308	27	5	287	81	-5	+0	-4	+4	+5	-0.0
2018	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	221	207	51	8	0	6	12	57	2	1	0	246	294	372	666	126	312	26	5	299	81	-5	+0	-4	+4	+5	-0.0
2019	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	294	269	56	14	0	14	19	87	3	0	0	208	268	416	684	208	247	30	6	298	88	-4	+0	-7	+5	+6	0.1
2019	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	294	267	54	14	0	12	21	83	3	0	0	202	268	390	658	187	241	28	7	290	88	-4	+0	-7	+5	+6	0.1
2020	33	INTL MLE	Tigres del Licey	—	40	38	8	1	0	2	2	13	0	0	0	211	250	395	645	184	261	32	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	33	INTL RAW	Tigres del Licey	—	40	38	8	1	0	2	2	13	0	0	0	211	250	395	645	184	261	32	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	37	32	4	1	0	0	5	12	0	0	0	125	243	156	399	31	200	32	14	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	37	28	4	1	0	0	9	10	0	0	0	143	351	179	530	36	222	27	24	278	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	19	ROK MLE	AZL Cubs	—	28	26	4	0	0	0	1	9	1	0	0	154	214	154	368		207	32	4	151	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	353	326	77	9	2	9	16	105	8	1	3	236	290	359	649	123	307	30	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	347	325	87	18	0	3	12	94	7	1	0	268	308	351	659	83	364	27	3	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	22	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	339	323	65	14	0	9	9	87	4	1	0	201	231	328	559	127	245	26	3	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	391	364	77	23	1	17	18	107	6	0	2	212	265	420	685	209	246	27	5	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	300	276	65	10	0	13	18	88	3	0	0	236	289	413	702	178	287	29	6	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	25	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	383	336	81	15	0	12	36	102	8	0	0	241	329	393	722	152	310	27	9	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	428	383	103	22	0	8	31	97	11	2	0	269	341	389	730	120	347	23	7	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	417	381	90	18	0	14	26	102	7	0	0	236	298	394	692	157	288	24	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	378	345	80	14	1	19	24	92	6	0	0	232	295	443	738	212	263	24	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	29	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	457	420	108	22	0	14	30	121	4	2	0	257	313	410	723	152	337	26	7	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	365	340	93	11	0	18	22	97	0	0	0	274	317	465	782	191	336	27	6	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	221	206	50	8	0	6	11	59	2	1	0	243	285	369	654	126	305	27	5	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	294	270	56	14	0	14	19	87	3	0	0	207	268	415	683	207	247	30	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	37	32	4	1	0	0	5	12	0	0	0	125	243	156	399	31	190	32	14	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2688	2449	624	126	1	98	183	687	35	5	0	255	316	427	743	172	313	26	7	328	90	+26	+1	-13	+60	+58	13.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	150	30	0	24	44	166	8	1	0	253	313	426	739	172	310	26	7	328	90	+6	+0	-3	+14	+14	3.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4778	4383	1048	200	4	158	280	1272	70	8	5	239	295	395	690	156	298	27	6	301	90	+26	+1	-13	+60	+58	13.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	596	142	27	1	21	38	173	10	1	1	238	295	393	688	154	298	27	6	301	90	+6	+0	-3	+14	+14	3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAARochester Red Wings · 37 PAwOBA .261 → .198 (−64)K% 27.0% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.03%	÷0.979	×1.200	—	—	33.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.62%	÷1.014	×0.690	—	×0.940	13.83%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.994	×0.930	—	×0.940	14.65%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.005	×0.830	—	×0.940	4.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.968	×0.700	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .261 → .198; ISO .036 → .030; BABIP .222 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 40 PAwOBA .215 → .164 (−51)K% 27.5% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.50%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	33.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.50%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.962	4.83%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.030	×0.930	—	×0.962	20.04%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷1.077	×0.830	—	×0.962	2.85%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.319	×0.840	—	×0.962	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .215 → .164; ISO .027 → .019; BABIP .269 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAIowa Cubs · 176 PAwOBA .355 → .304 (−51)K% 21.0% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.02%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	27.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.07%	÷0.938	×0.710	—	×1.033	10.22%
HBP% /PA	2.84%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	2.88%
Singles /BIP	23.85%	÷1.028	×0.900	×1.008	×1.033	21.75%
Doubles /BIP	5.50%	÷1.049	×0.810	×1.008	×1.033	4.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.953	×0.810	×1.008	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.50%	÷0.863	×0.780	—	×1.033	5.14%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 106, 2B 110, 3B 91, K 101, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .355 → .304; ISO .164 → .143; BABIP .305 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AATennessee Smokies · 17 PAwOBA .585 → .488 (−97)K% 17.6% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.65%	÷0.976	×1.220	—	—	22.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	29.41%	÷0.983	×0.680	—	×0.998	20.30%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	4.93%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.991	×0.920	—	×0.998	23.17%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.033	×0.910	—	×0.998	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.082	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	25.00%	÷1.028	×0.800	—	×0.998	19.41%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 116, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .585 → .488; ISO .545 → .474; BABIP .333 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAAIowa Cubs · 251 PAwOBA .372 → .309 (−63)K% 22.7% → 30.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.71%	÷0.965	×1.290	—	—	30.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.57%	÷1.043	×0.710	—	×1.048	5.40%
HBP% /PA	1.20%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	1.23%
Singles /BIP	24.12%	÷0.980	×0.900	×0.995	×1.048	23.09%
Doubles /BIP	5.29%	÷1.017	×0.810	×0.995	×1.048	4.40%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.086	×0.810	×0.995	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.82%	÷0.934	×0.780	—	×1.048	7.72%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 96, 2B 103, 3B 117, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .372 → .309; ISO .238 → .192; BABIP .321 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 A+Daytona Cubs · 49 PAwOBA .316 → .256 (−60)K% 18.4% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.37%	÷1.064	×1.420	—	—	24.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.24%	÷1.056	×0.750	—	×0.988	8.60%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷1.016	×0.920	—	×0.988	16.26%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.075	×0.960	—	×0.988	8.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.030	×0.810	—	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.03%	÷1.232	×0.880	—	×0.988	2.14%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 103, 2B 115, 3B 106, K 113, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .316 → .256; ISO .143 → .113; BABIP .273 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAIowa Cubs · 272 PAwOBA .348 → .297 (−51)K% 21.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.32%	÷1.017	×1.290	—	—	27.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.62%	÷1.086	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.54%
HBP% /PA	2.21%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	2.27%
Singles /BIP	16.57%	÷1.019	×0.900	×0.950	×1.050	14.60%
Doubles /BIP	9.39%	÷1.001	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	7.58%
Triples /BIP	0.55%	÷0.979	×0.810	×0.950	×1.050	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	7.18%	÷0.881	×0.780	—	×1.050	6.67%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 96, K 103, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .348 → .297; ISO .243 → .215; BABIP .274 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AATennessee Smokies · 339 PAwOBA .282 → .242 (−40)K% 20.9% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.94%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	25.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.83%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.042	2.72%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	1.03%
Singles /BIP	18.95%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.970	×1.042	17.63%
Doubles /BIP	6.45%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.970	×1.042	5.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	×0.970	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.44%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	3.70%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .282 → .242; ISO .154 → .128; BABIP .266 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .