Chris Valaika

Pos2B

B/TR/R

Born1985-08-14

Age (2027)41

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2015

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2013	27	AAA/A+2 orgs	186	.235/.297/.347	4	1	36	—	.190/.238/.276
2013	27	MLBMIA	70	.219/.265/.344	1	0	73	-0.1
2014	28	AAACHC	397	.278/.349/.423	10	2	62	—	.218/.264/.324
2014	28	MLBCHC	131	.231/.285/.339	3	1	73	-1.1
2015	29	AAACHC	376	.266/.329/.401	7	1	61	—	.219/.268/.327
2016	30	No MLB games played
2017	31	No MLB games played
2018	32	No MLB games played
2019	33	No MLB games played
2020	34	No MLB games played
2021	35	No MLB games played
2022	36	No MLB games played
2023	37	No MLB games played
2024	38	No MLB games played
2025	39	No MLB games played
2026	40	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.2

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	20	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	315	275	89	22	4	8	24	61	8	2	2	324	394	520	914	196	382	19	8	393	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+	Sarasota Reds	—	241	217	55	9	1	2	13	42	6	0	3	253	314	332	645	78	301	17	5	289	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A	Dayton Dragons	—	331	300	92	20	3	10	17	72	8	1	4	307	360	493	853	187	366	22	5	370	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	417	379	114	19	1	11	28	74	3	7	4	301	354	443	797	142	348	18	7	350	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+	Sarasota Reds	—	145	135	49	9	0	7	7	28	1	2	0	363	399	585	984	222	412	19	5	425	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	392	366	86	20	1	6	16	76	4	1	0	235	275	344	619	109	277	19	4	274	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	40	38	10	1	0	1	1	9	0	0	0	263	282	368	650	105	321	22	2	283	74	-1	+0	+3	+2	+1	0.4
2010	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	459	424	129	28	2	4	19	72	2	3	3	304	337	408	745	104	349	16	4	323	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	27	25	7	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	280	333	400	733	120	318	11	7	327	106	+0	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.4
2011	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	453	417	109	18	0	7	21	65	6	1	0	261	306	355	661	94	291	14	5	293	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	316	291	65	14	2	6	15	63	4	2	3	223	271	347	618	124	261	20	5	272	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	70	64	14	5	0	1	3	16	1	0	0	219	265	344	608	125	271	23	4	265	73	-2	+0	-3	+3	+2	-0.1
2013	27	AAA	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	143	130	32	6	0	3	10	25	2	1	1	246	310	362	671	115	282	17	7	302	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	43	40	8	1	0	1	2	6	1	0	1	200	256	300	556	100	212	14	5	254	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	131	121	28	4	0	3	7	35	2	1	0	231	285	339	623	107	298	27	5	280	73	-4	+0	+0	-9	+3	-1.1
2014	28	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	397	352	98	21	0	10	31	76	7	2	1	278	349	423	772	145	325	19	8	341	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	376	334	89	22	1	7	25	76	6	1	2	266	329	401	730	135	319	20	7	318	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	268	248	59	11	1	5	13	63	3	1	0	238	284	351	635	113	297	24	5	281	77	-7	+0	+1	-3	+6	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	315	285	66	15	3	6	14	88	8	2	2	232	287	368	655	137	290	28	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	241	220	49	8	1	2	10	60	6	0	3	223	275	295	571	73	281	25	4	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	331	305	78	16	3	8	12	98	8	1	4	256	302	407	708	151	324	30	4	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	417	387	104	17	1	9	20	90	3	7	4	269	310	388	697	119	319	22	5	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	145	137	41	8	0	6	5	40	1	2	0	299	329	489	818	190	359	28	3	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	392	371	78	17	1	5	11	91	4	1	0	210	241	302	543	92	256	23	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	40	38	10	1	0	1	1	9	0	0	0	263	282	368	650	105	321	22	2	278	74	-1	+0	+3	+2	+1	0.4
2010	24	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	459	429	121	28	2	3	14	91	2	3	3	282	308	378	685	96	327	20	3	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	27	25	7	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	280	333	400	733	120	318	11	7	324	106	+0	+0	+1	+2	+1	0.4
2011	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	453	425	96	15	0	6	13	81	6	1	0	226	259	304	563	78	257	18	3	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	316	296	55	11	2	5	10	78	4	2	3	186	223	287	510	101	227	25	3	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	70	64	14	5	0	1	3	16	1	0	0	219	265	344	608	125	271	23	4	277	73	-2	+0	-3	+3	+2	-0.1
2013	27	AAA MLE	New Orleans Zephyrs	—	143	133	26	5	0	2	7	32	2	1	1	195	246	278	525	83	235	22	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	A+ MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	43	41	7	1	0	1	1	8	1	0	1	171	209	268	478	98	179	19	2	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	131	122	28	4	0	3	6	35	2	1	0	230	277	336	613	107	298	27	5	275	73	-4	+0	+0	-9	+3	-1.1
2014	28	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	397	367	80	15	0	8	16	98	7	2	1	218	264	324	588	106	264	25	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	376	342	75	17	1	6	17	93	6	1	2	219	268	327	596	108	266	25	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	315	285	66	15	3	6	14	88	8	2	2	232	287	368	655	137	305	28	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	315	275	89	22	4	8	24	61	8	2	2	324	394	520	914	196	382	19	8	393	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	572	526	125	24	3	9	21	158	14	1	7	238	285	346	631	108	315	28	4	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	572	517	147	29	4	12	30	114	14	1	7	284	340	426	766	141	338	20	5	336	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	562	524	144	25	1	15	25	130	4	9	4	275	313	412	725	137	337	23	4	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	562	514	163	28	1	18	35	102	4	9	4	317	365	481	846	163	364	18	6	369	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	392	371	78	17	1	5	11	91	4	1	0	210	241	302	543	92	261	23	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	392	366	86	20	1	6	16	76	4	1	0	235	275	344	619	109	277	19	4	274	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	499	467	131	29	2	4	15	100	2	3	3	281	306	377	683	96	340	20	3	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	499	462	139	29	2	5	20	81	2	3	3	301	333	405	737	104	347	16	4	320	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	480	450	103	16	1	6	15	84	6	1	0	229	263	309	572	80	265	18	3	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	480	442	116	19	1	7	23	68	6	1	0	262	308	357	665	95	292	14	5	295	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	316	296	55	11	2	5	10	78	4	2	3	186	223	287	510	101	230	25	3	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	—	316	291	65	14	2	6	15	63	4	2	3	223	271	347	618	124	261	20	5	272	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	256	237	47	11	0	4	12	56	4	1	2	198	249	295	544	97	240	22	5	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	256	234	54	12	0	5	15	47	4	1	2	231	289	346	635	115	266	18	6	284	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	528	489	108	19	0	11	22	133	9	3	1	221	267	327	595	106	276	25	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	528	473	126	25	0	13	38	111	9	3	1	266	333	402	734	135	318	21	7	326	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	376	342	75	17	1	6	17	93	6	1	2	219	268	327	596	108	277	25	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	—	376	334	89	22	1	7	25	76	6	1	2	266	329	401	730	135	319	20	7	318	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	315	290	66	15	3	6	14	88	8	2	2	228	287	362	649	134	290	28	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	572	532	125	24	3	9	21	158	14	1	7	235	285	342	627	107	306	28	4	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	562	528	144	25	1	15	25	130	4	9	4	273	313	409	722	136	329	23	4	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	392	374	78	17	1	5	11	91	4	1	0	209	241	299	540	91	256	23	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	499	479	131	29	2	4	15	100	2	3	3	273	306	367	673	94	327	20	3	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	480	456	103	16	1	6	15	84	6	1	0	226	263	305	568	79	260	18	3	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	316	299	55	11	2	5	10	78	4	2	3	184	223	284	507	100	227	25	3	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	256	238	47	11	0	4	12	56	4	1	2	197	249	294	543	97	235	22	5	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	528	492	108	19	0	11	22	133	9	3	1	220	267	325	593	106	272	25	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	376	350	75	17	1	6	17	93	6	1	2	214	268	320	588	106	266	25	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	268	248	59	11	1	5	13	63	3	1	0	238	284	351	635	113	297	24	5	281	67	-7	+0	+1	-3	+6	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	143	27	2	12	32	153	7	2	0	238	284	349	634	111	297	24	5	281	67	-18	+0	+3	-8	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4296	3987	932	184	14	71	162	1011	61	24	24	234	274	340	615	107	291	24	4	267	67	-7	+0	+1	-3	+6	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	141	28	2	11	25	153	9	4	4	234	275	342	616	108	290	24	4	267	67	-18	+0	+3	-8	+14	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2015 AAAIowa Cubs · 376 PAwOBA .314 → .258 (−56)K% 20.2% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.21%	÷1.051	×1.290	—	—	24.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.38%	÷0.996	×0.710	—	×0.972	4.42%
HBP% /PA	1.60%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	1.52%
Singles /BIP	22.87%	÷1.008	×0.900	×0.984	×0.972	19.54%
Doubles /BIP	8.53%	÷0.984	×0.810	×0.984	×0.972	6.72%
Triples /BIP	0.39%	÷0.948	×0.810	×0.984	×0.972	0.32%
Home runs /BIP	2.71%	÷0.916	×0.780	—	×0.972	2.25%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .314 → .258; ISO .135 → .110; BABIP .319 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAIowa Cubs · 397 PAwOBA .334 → .260 (−74)K% 19.1% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.14%	÷0.996	×1.290	—	—	24.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.30%	÷1.249	×0.710	—	×0.982	4.08%
HBP% /PA	1.76%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	1.70%
Singles /BIP	24.28%	÷1.021	×0.900	×0.986	×0.982	20.72%
Doubles /BIP	7.61%	÷1.111	×0.810	×0.986	×0.982	5.37%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.986	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.62%	÷0.929	×0.780	—	×0.982	2.99%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 104, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 99, BB 150 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .334 → .260; ISO .145 → .112; BABIP .325 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 143 PAwOBA .296 → .227 (−69)K% 17.5% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.48%	÷1.009	×1.290	—	—	22.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.99%	÷0.963	×0.710	—	×0.992	5.11%
HBP% /PA	1.40%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	1.36%
Singles /BIP	21.90%	÷0.987	×0.900	×0.950	×0.992	18.83%
Doubles /BIP	5.71%	÷0.959	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	4.55%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.86%	÷1.400	×0.780	—	×0.992	1.58%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 87, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .296 → .227; ISO .115 → .073; BABIP .282 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 43 PAwOBA .247 → .200 (−48)K% 14.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.95%	÷1.019	×1.420	—	—	19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.65%	÷0.970	×0.750	—	×0.948	3.41%
HBP% /PA	2.33%	—	×0.930	—	×0.948	2.05%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷1.029	×0.920	—	×0.948	14.95%
Doubles /BIP	2.94%	÷1.073	×0.960	—	×0.948	2.49%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷0.942	×0.880	—	×0.948	2.61%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .247 → .200; ISO .100 → .083; BABIP .212 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAALouisville Bats · 316 PAwOBA .268 → .221 (−47)K% 19.9% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.94%	÷0.967	×1.200	—	—	24.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.75%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×1.003	3.18%
HBP% /PA	1.27%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.19%
Singles /BIP	18.86%	÷1.046	×0.930	×0.990	×1.003	16.66%
Doubles /BIP	6.14%	÷1.002	×0.830	×0.990	×1.003	5.05%
Triples /BIP	0.88%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.990	×1.003	0.94%
Home runs /BIP	2.63%	÷1.087	×0.840	—	×1.003	2.04%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 109, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .268 → .221; ISO .124 → .100; BABIP .261 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAALouisville Bats · 453 PAwOBA .288 → .250 (−39)K% 14.3% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.35%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	17.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.42%	÷1.070	×0.690	—	×1.018	2.90%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.27%
Singles /BIP	23.86%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.975	×1.018	21.31%
Doubles /BIP	5.11%	÷0.972	×0.830	×0.975	×1.018	4.33%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.924	×0.970	×0.975	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.99%	÷0.944	×0.840	—	×1.018	1.80%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 107, 2B 94, 3B 85, K 93, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .288 → .250; ISO .094 → .082; BABIP .291 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAALouisville Bats · 459 PAwOBA .321 → .294 (−27)K% 15.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.69%	÷0.952	×1.200	—	—	19.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.14%	÷0.942	×0.690	—	×1.033	3.13%
HBP% /PA	0.44%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.42%
Singles /BIP	26.99%	÷1.018	×0.930	×0.983	×1.033	25.04%
Doubles /BIP	7.95%	÷0.858	×0.830	×0.983	×1.033	7.82%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.983	×1.033	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	1.14%	÷1.093	×0.840	—	×1.033	0.90%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 104, 2B 72, 3B 130, K 90, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .321 → .294; ISO .104 → .095; BABIP .349 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAALouisville Bats · 392 PAwOBA .269 → .238 (−30)K% 19.4% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.39%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	23.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.83%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	2.77%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.01%
Singles /BIP	20.34%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.978	×1.048	19.40%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.978	×1.048	5.87%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.978	×1.048	0.34%
Home runs /BIP	2.07%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.048	1.82%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .269 → .238; ISO .109 → .094; BABIP .277 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).