Nick Evans

Pos1B

B/TR/R

Born1986-01-30

Age (2027)41

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLLAST SEASON 2018

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2014	28	AAAARI	227	.354/.429/.631	11	0	122	—	.275/.330/.469
2014	28	MLBARI	23	.273/.304/.636	2	0	150	-0.2
2015	29	AAAARI	583	.310/.382/.479	17	0	84	—	.245/.301/.361
2018	32	INTLAguilas de Me…	19	.067/.263/.067	0	0	18	—
2019	33	No MLB games played
2020	34	No MLB games played
2021	35	No MLB games played
2022	36	No MLB games played
2023	37	No MLB games played
2024	38	No MLB games played
2025	39	No MLB games played
2026	40	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.2

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2005	19	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	68	64	22	7	0	6	4	17	0	1	0	344	382	734	1.117	391	390	25	6	477	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	A	Hagerstown Suns	—	565	511	130	33	3	15	45	99	6	2	0	254	322	419	741	164	287	18	8	329	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	440	378	108	25	1	15	53	64	3	3	0	286	378	476	854	190	307	15	12	374	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	MLB	New York Mets	—	119	109	28	10	0	2	7	24	1	0	0	257	308	404	711	147	306	20	6	312	89	-2	+0	+1	-5	+3	-0.3
2008	22	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	326	296	92	18	7	14	26	64	1	2	1	311	368	561	929	250	353	20	8	400	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	MLB	New York Mets	—	69	65	15	5	1	1	4	20	0	0	0	231	275	385	660	154	318	29	6	292	84	-1	+0	-5	-5	+1	-1.0
2009	23	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	261	237	50	12	3	10	23	55	0	0	0	211	281	414	694	203	231	21	9	305	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	117	105	29	9	1	3	10	22	2	2	0	276	350	467	817	190	325	19	9	362	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	MLB	New York Mets	—	37	36	11	3	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	306	324	472	797	167	400	27	3	350	131	+1	+0	-1	-6	+1	-0.6
2010	24	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	157	140	44	14	1	6	15	23	1	0	0	314	385	557	942	243	342	15	10	408	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	391	347	102	30	0	17	40	65	1	0	1	294	369	527	896	233	317	17	10	390	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB	New York Mets	—	194	176	45	10	2	4	15	48	1	0	1	256	318	403	721	148	325	25	8	319	107	+2	-0	-1	-8	+4	-0.4
2011	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	277	249	78	13	0	8	26	50	0	3	0	313	378	462	840	149	363	18	9	372	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	80	71	14	3	0	2	7	14	0	0	0	197	269	324	593	127	211	18	9	263	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	527	454	121	24	1	19	66	111	1	2	4	267	361	449	810	183	309	21	13	358	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	23	22	6	2	0	2	1	10	0	0	0	273	304	636	941	364	400	43	4	402	150	+1	+0	+1	-4	+0	-0.2
2014	28	AAA	Reno Aces	—	227	198	70	18	2	11	23	28	3	0	0	354	429	631	1.060	278	364	12	10	453	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA	Reno Aces	—	583	520	161	37	0	17	59	111	2	0	1	310	382	479	861	169	365	19	10	381	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	32	INTL	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	19	15	1	0	0	0	4	8	0	0	1	67	263	67	330		143	42	21	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	442	408	105	30	3	10	28	112	2	0	1	257	308	419	727	162	328	25	6	320	102	+1	-0	-6	-29	+10	-2.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2005	19	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	68	66	16	5	0	4	2	24	0	1	0	242	265	500	765	258	304	35	3	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	565	527	115	27	3	12	29	133	6	2	0	218	267	349	616	131	263	24	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	440	393	100	24	1	13	38	91	3	3	0	254	325	420	745	165	292	21	9	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	119	111	28	10	0	2	5	24	1	0	0	252	291	396	687	144	306	20	4	300	89	-2	+0	+1	-5	+3	-0.3
2008	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	326	304	84	15	7	11	18	78	1	2	1	276	319	480	799	204	331	24	6	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	69	65	15	5	1	1	4	20	0	0	0	231	275	385	660	154	318	29	6	292	84	-1	+0	-5	-5	+1	-1.0
2009	23	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	261	244	46	10	3	9	16	66	0	0	0	189	238	365	603	176	216	25	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	117	108	27	8	1	2	7	27	2	2	0	250	308	398	706	148	319	23	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	37	36	11	3	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	306	324	472	797	167	400	27	3	361	131	+1	+0	-1	-6	+1	-0.6
2010	24	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	157	144	40	11	1	5	11	28	1	0	0	278	333	472	806	194	316	18	7	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	391	359	94	27	0	13	28	81	1	0	1	262	317	446	763	184	299	21	7	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	194	176	47	11	2	4	15	48	1	0	1	267	328	420	749	153	325	25	8	327	107	+2	-0	-1	-8	+4	-0.4
2011	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	277	259	73	12	0	6	16	58	0	3	0	282	324	398	721	116	338	21	6	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	80	74	14	3	0	2	4	17	0	0	0	189	231	311	542	122	192	21	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	527	477	101	19	1	14	43	136	1	2	4	212	278	344	622	132	257	26	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	23	22	6	2	0	2	1	10	0	0	0	273	304	636	941	364	400	43	4	390	150	+1	+0	+1	-4	+0	-0.2
2014	28	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	227	207	57	14	1	8	14	37	3	0	0	275	330	469	799	193	296	16	6	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	583	538	132	26	0	12	41	147	2	0	1	245	301	361	662	115	315	25	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	19	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	68	66	16	5	0	4	2	24	0	1	0	242	265	500	765	258	316	35	3	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	19	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	—	68	64	22	7	0	6	4	17	0	1	0	344	382	734	1.117	391	390	25	6	477	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	565	527	115	27	3	12	29	133	6	2	0	218	267	349	616	131	268	24	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	A RAW	Hagerstown Suns	—	565	511	130	33	3	15	45	99	6	2	0	254	322	419	741	164	287	18	8	329	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	440	393	100	24	1	13	38	91	3	3	0	254	325	420	745	165	297	21	9	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+ RAW	St. Lucie Mets	—	440	378	108	25	1	15	53	64	3	3	0	286	378	476	854	190	307	15	12	374	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	445	415	112	25	7	13	23	102	2	2	1	270	311	458	769	188	325	23	5	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	445	405	120	28	7	16	33	88	2	2	1	296	352	519	871	222	340	20	7	376	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	447	417	88	23	5	12	27	113	2	2	0	211	262	376	639	165	259	25	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	447	407	94	26	5	14	37	97	2	2	0	231	298	423	721	192	269	22	8	318	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	585	539	146	41	1	19	40	119	2	0	1	271	324	456	780	186	314	20	7	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	585	523	157	47	1	24	56	98	2	0	1	300	370	532	902	231	329	17	10	392	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	471	435	119	22	2	10	31	106	1	3	1	274	323	402	726	129	337	23	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	471	425	123	23	2	12	41	98	1	3	1	289	353	438	791	148	348	21	9	350	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	80	74	14	3	0	2	4	17	0	0	0	189	231	311	542	122	211	21	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	—	80	71	14	3	0	2	7	14	0	0	0	197	269	324	593	127	211	18	9	263	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	527	477	101	19	1	14	43	136	1	2	4	212	278	344	622	132	261	26	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AA RAW	Mobile BayBears	—	527	454	121	24	1	19	66	111	1	2	4	267	361	449	810	183	309	21	13	358	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	250	229	63	16	1	10	15	47	3	0	0	275	328	485	813	210	303	19	6	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	250	220	76	20	2	13	24	38	3	0	0	345	417	632	1.049	286	366	15	10	448	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	583	538	132	26	0	12	41	147	2	0	1	245	301	361	662	115	315	25	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	583	520	161	37	0	17	59	111	2	0	1	310	382	479	861	169	365	19	10	381	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	32	INTL MLE	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	19	15	1	0	0	0	4	8	0	0	1	67	263	67	330		143	42	21	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	32	INTL RAW	Aguilas de Mexicali	—	19	15	1	0	0	0	4	8	0	0	1	67	263	67	330		143	42	21	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2005	19	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	68	66	16	5	0	4	2	24	0	1	0	242	265	500	765	258	304	35	3	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	20	A MLE	Hagerstown Suns	—	565	525	115	27	3	12	29	133	6	2	0	219	267	350	617	131	263	24	5	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	21	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	440	396	100	24	1	13	38	91	3	3	0	253	325	417	742	164	292	21	9	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	445	417	112	25	7	13	23	102	2	2	1	269	311	456	767	187	324	23	5	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	447	415	88	23	5	12	27	113	2	2	0	212	262	378	641	166	259	25	6	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	585	538	146	41	1	19	40	119	2	0	1	271	324	457	781	186	310	20	7	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	471	436	119	22	2	10	31	106	1	3	1	273	323	401	725	128	333	23	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	80	76	14	3	0	2	4	17	0	0	0	184	231	303	533	118	192	21	5	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	527	478	101	19	1	14	43	136	1	2	4	211	278	343	621	132	257	26	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	250	230	63	16	1	10	15	47	3	0	0	274	328	483	811	209	306	19	6	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	583	535	132	26	0	12	41	147	2	0	1	247	301	363	664	116	315	25	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	442	408	105	30	3	10	28	112	2	0	1	257	308	419	727	162	328	25	6	320	91	+1	-0	-6	-29	+10	-2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	154	44	4	15	41	165	3	0	1	257	307	418	726	162	326	25	6	320	91	+2	-1	-9	-42	+14	-3.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4480	4125	1007	231	21	121	297	1043	22	15	9	244	298	398	697	154	296	23	7	303	91	+1	-0	-6	-29	+10	-2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	147	34	3	18	43	151	3	2	1	246	299	403	702	157	297	23	7	303	91	+2	-1	-9	-42	+14	-3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2015 AAAReno Aces · 583 PAwOBA .373 → .292 (−81)K% 19.0% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.04%	÷0.969	×1.290	—	—	25.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.12%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×0.982	7.08%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	0.33%
Singles /BIP	26.16%	÷0.964	×0.900	×1.001	×0.982	23.99%
Doubles /BIP	9.05%	÷1.083	×0.810	×1.001	×0.982	6.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.001	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.16%	÷1.027	×0.780	—	×0.982	3.10%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .373 → .292; ISO .169 → .120; BABIP .365 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAReno Aces · 227 PAwOBA .444 → .348 (−96)K% 12.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.33%	÷0.965	×1.290	—	—	16.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.25%	÷1.049	×0.710	—	×0.992	6.21%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	1.28%
Singles /BIP	22.94%	÷1.047	×0.900	×1.010	×0.992	19.76%
Doubles /BIP	10.59%	÷1.047	×0.810	×1.010	×0.992	8.20%
Triples /BIP	1.18%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.010	×0.992	0.83%
Home runs /BIP	6.47%	÷1.116	×0.780	—	×0.992	4.48%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 109, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .444 → .348; ISO .278 → .203; BABIP .364 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAMobile BayBears · 527 PAwOBA .351 → .275 (−76)K% 21.1% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.06%	÷0.993	×1.220	—	—	25.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.14%	÷0.994	×0.680	—	×0.978	8.12%
HBP% /PA	0.19%	—	×0.840	—	×0.978	0.16%
Singles /BIP	22.45%	÷1.022	×0.920	×0.977	×0.978	19.31%
Doubles /BIP	7.00%	÷1.089	×0.910	×0.977	×0.978	5.58%
Triples /BIP	0.29%	÷1.023	×0.880	×0.977	×0.978	0.24%
Home runs /BIP	5.54%	÷1.071	×0.800	—	×0.978	4.05%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 104, 2B 118, 3B 105, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .351 → .275; ISO .183 → .139; BABIP .309 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 80 PAwOBA .257 → .223 (−34)K% 17.5% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.50%	÷1.014	×1.200	—	—	20.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.50%	÷1.043	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.05%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷1.038	×0.930	×1.014	×1.018	14.59%
Doubles /BIP	5.26%	÷0.945	×0.830	×1.014	×1.018	4.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.014	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.51%	÷1.095	×0.840	—	×1.018	2.74%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 108, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 103, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .257 → .223; ISO .127 → .109; BABIP .211 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAABuffalo Bisons · 277 PAwOBA .362 → .317 (−45)K% 18.1% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.05%	÷1.026	×1.200	—	—	21.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.66%	÷1.088	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.68%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.64%	÷1.008	×0.930	×1.001	×1.033	27.33%
Doubles /BIP	6.53%	÷0.977	×0.830	×1.001	×1.033	5.74%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.981	×0.970	×1.001	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.02%	÷1.139	×0.840	—	×1.033	3.06%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 96, K 105, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .362 → .317; ISO .149 → .122; BABIP .363 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AABinghamton Mets · 391 PAwOBA .380 → .328 (−52)K% 16.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.62%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	20.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.72%	÷0.975	×0.700	—	×1.012	7.06%
HBP% /PA	0.26%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.22%
Singles /BIP	19.50%	÷1.023	×0.970	×1.027	×1.012	19.22%
Doubles /BIP	10.64%	÷0.982	×0.860	×1.027	×1.012	9.69%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.027	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.03%	÷1.048	×0.780	—	×1.012	4.54%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .380 → .328; ISO .233 → .189; BABIP .317 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAABuffalo Bisons · 157 PAwOBA .397 → .347 (−50)K% 14.6% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.65%	÷0.984	×1.200	—	—	17.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.55%	÷0.958	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.21%
HBP% /PA	0.64%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.63%
Singles /BIP	19.66%	÷0.969	×0.930	×1.017	×1.048	20.11%
Doubles /BIP	11.97%	÷1.133	×0.830	×1.017	×1.048	9.34%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.017	×1.048	0.77%
Home runs /BIP	5.13%	÷1.026	×0.840	—	×1.048	4.40%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 97, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .397 → .347; ISO .243 → .201; BABIP .342 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAABuffalo Bisons · 261 PAwOBA .297 → .258 (−39)K% 21.1% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.07%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	25.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.43%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.11%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.74%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.994	×1.050	13.34%
Doubles /BIP	6.59%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.994	×1.050	5.71%
Triples /BIP	1.65%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.994	×1.050	1.67%
Home runs /BIP	5.49%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.050	4.85%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .297 → .258; ISO .203 → .178; BABIP .231 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .