Matt Spring
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 28 | AABOS | 198 | .222/.269/.449 | 10 | 0 | 37 | — | .170/.208/.330 |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 159 | .241/.325/.504 | 8 | 0 | 68 | — | .183/.247/.373 |
| 2015 | 30 | AAAPawtucket Red… | 222 | .191/.271/.332 | 6 | 0 | 22 | — | .141/.199/.238 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 21 | A | Southwest Michigan Devil Rays | — | 186 | 176 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 67 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 239 | 335 | 574 | 131 | 299 | 36 | 4 | 253 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 107 | 97 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 206 | 330 | 536 | 165 | 190 | 30 | 5 | 226 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A | Columbus Catfish | — | 101 | 91 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 287 | 374 | 661 | 165 | 250 | 24 | 10 | 296 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 274 | 246 | 61 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 68 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 248 | 317 | 431 | 748 | 183 | 302 | 25 | 8 | 329 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 251 | 224 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 74 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 274 | 362 | 636 | 165 | 250 | 29 | 9 | 283 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 74 | 66 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 394 | 644 | 212 | 200 | 27 | 5 | 278 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 114 | 103 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 252 | 306 | 408 | 714 | 155 | 293 | 22 | 7 | 310 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 85 | 74 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 353 | 541 | 893 | 284 | 349 | 32 | 11 | 389 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 94 | 88 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 298 | 568 | 866 | 318 | 306 | 34 | 6 | 372 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 224 | 198 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 74 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 197 | 290 | 343 | 634 | 146 | 274 | 33 | 10 | 289 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 198 | 185 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 269 | 449 | 718 | 227 | 277 | 32 | 5 | 312 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 39 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 342 | 588 | 930 | 324 | 389 | 38 | 8 | 390 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 120 | 103 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 319 | 476 | 795 | 243 | 261 | 27 | 8 | 338 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 222 | 199 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 271 | 332 | 603 | 141 | 260 | 32 | 10 | 273 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 21 | A MLE | Southwest Michigan Devil Rays | — | 186 | 178 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 91 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 140 | 168 | 230 | 399 | 90 | 250 | 49 | 3 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 107 | 98 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 176 | 276 | 452 | 133 | 169 | 36 | 4 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | A MLE | Columbus Catfish | — | 101 | 94 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 218 | 277 | 494 | 117 | 209 | 32 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 274 | 253 | 53 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 83 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 262 | 356 | 618 | 146 | 269 | 30 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 251 | 231 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 214 | 281 | 495 | 126 | 215 | 36 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 74 | 67 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 134 | 194 | 284 | 478 | 149 | 175 | 35 | 4 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 114 | 106 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 189 | 225 | 274 | 499 | 85 | 250 | 32 | 4 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 85 | 77 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 271 | 403 | 673 | 208 | 293 | 40 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 94 | 91 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 154 | 181 | 363 | 543 | 209 | 239 | 51 | 3 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 224 | 206 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 136 | 205 | 218 | 424 | 83 | 227 | 42 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 198 | 188 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 79 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 208 | 330 | 538 | 160 | 232 | 40 | 4 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 39 | 35 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 263 | 400 | 663 | 200 | 328 | 46 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 120 | 107 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 241 | 364 | 606 | 187 | 210 | 33 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 222 | 206 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 199 | 238 | 437 | 97 | 222 | 40 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 21 | A MLE | Southwest Michigan Devil Rays | — | 186 | 178 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 91 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 140 | 168 | 230 | 399 | 90 | 256 | 49 | 3 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 21 | A RAW | Southwest Michigan Devil Rays | — | 186 | 176 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 67 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 205 | 239 | 335 | 574 | 131 | 299 | 36 | 4 | 253 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 208 | 193 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 192 | 285 | 477 | 135 | 195 | 34 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 208 | 188 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 246 | 351 | 597 | 165 | 220 | 27 | 7 | 260 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 274 | 253 | 53 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 83 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 262 | 356 | 618 | 146 | 277 | 30 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 274 | 246 | 61 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 68 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 248 | 317 | 431 | 748 | 183 | 302 | 25 | 8 | 329 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 251 | 231 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 214 | 281 | 495 | 126 | 219 | 36 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 251 | 224 | 44 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 74 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 274 | 362 | 636 | 165 | 250 | 29 | 9 | 283 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 188 | 173 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 168 | 213 | 277 | 491 | 110 | 227 | 33 | 4 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 188 | 169 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 45 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 284 | 402 | 687 | 178 | 258 | 24 | 6 | 297 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 167 | 28 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 81 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 168 | 223 | 353 | 577 | 186 | 266 | 45 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 179 | 162 | 41 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 253 | 324 | 556 | 880 | 302 | 326 | 33 | 8 | 380 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 224 | 206 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 136 | 205 | 218 | 424 | 83 | 222 | 42 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 224 | 198 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 74 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 197 | 290 | 343 | 634 | 146 | 274 | 33 | 10 | 289 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 198 | 188 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 79 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 208 | 330 | 538 | 160 | 243 | 40 | 4 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 198 | 185 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 64 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 269 | 449 | 718 | 227 | 277 | 32 | 5 | 312 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 159 | 142 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 58 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 247 | 373 | 620 | 190 | 241 | 36 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 159 | 137 | 33 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 325 | 504 | 828 | 263 | 287 | 30 | 8 | 351 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 222 | 206 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 199 | 238 | 437 | 97 | 219 | 40 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 222 | 199 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 271 | 332 | 603 | 141 | 260 | 32 | 10 | 273 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 21 | A MLE | Southwest Michigan Devil Rays | — | 186 | 178 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 91 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 140 | 168 | 230 | 399 | 90 | 250 | 49 | 3 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 208 | 196 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 148 | 192 | 281 | 473 | 133 | 188 | 34 | 5 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 23 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 274 | 254 | 53 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 83 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 209 | 262 | 354 | 616 | 146 | 269 | 30 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 24 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 251 | 232 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 155 | 214 | 280 | 494 | 125 | 215 | 36 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 25 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 188 | 176 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 62 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 165 | 213 | 273 | 486 | 108 | 220 | 33 | 4 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 179 | 165 | 28 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 81 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 170 | 223 | 358 | 581 | 188 | 265 | 45 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 27 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 224 | 204 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 94 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 137 | 205 | 221 | 426 | 83 | 227 | 42 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 28 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 198 | 187 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 79 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 171 | 208 | 332 | 540 | 160 | 232 | 40 | 4 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 29 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 159 | 146 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 58 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 247 | 363 | 610 | 185 | 239 | 36 | 5 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 30 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 222 | 205 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 199 | 239 | 438 | 98 | 222 | 40 | 7 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2089 | 1937 | 315 | 86 | 2 | 54 | 108 | 798 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 163 | 214 | 293 | 507 | 130 | 236 | 38 | 5 | 221 | 36 | -159 | -1 | +0 | +37 | +45 | -7.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 99 | 27 | 1 | 17 | 34 | 248 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 164 | 217 | 297 | 513 | 133 | 238 | 38 | 5 | 221 | 36 | -49 | -0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 222 PAwOBA .267 → .201 (−66)K% 32.0% → 40.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.98% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.91% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.19% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 14.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.81% | ÷0.867 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 6.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.69% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.962 | 3.74% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 73, 3B 102, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .267 → .201; ISO .141 → .107; BABIP .260 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 120 PAwOBA .340 → .262 (−78)K% 26.7% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.948 | 5.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.948 | 2.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.49% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 13.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.86% | ÷1.025 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 7.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.45% | ÷0.959 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.948 | 6.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .340 → .262; ISO .243 → .187; BABIP .261 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 39 PAwOBA .389 → .289 (−100)K% 38.5% → 47.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.46% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.084 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 4.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 2.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.53% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.972 | 9.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷0.937 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.972 | 22.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.104 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.240 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 6.93% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 95, 2B 87, 3B 121, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .389 → .289; ISO .324 → .228; BABIP .389 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 198 PAwOBA .305 → .223 (−82)K% 32.3% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.32% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.05% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 3.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.70% | ÷0.980 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 14.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.92% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 7.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.26% | ÷1.026 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 6.02% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .305 → .223; ISO .227 → .155; BABIP .277 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 224 PAwOBA .282 → .199 (−83)K% 33.0% → 42.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.04% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.27% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 6.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.35% | ÷1.007 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 17.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.095 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.65% | ÷1.098 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.88% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .282 → .199; ISO .146 → .092; BABIP .274 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Salem Red Sox · 94 PAwOBA .361 → .223 (−137)K% 34.0% → 50.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.04% | ÷0.949 | ×1.420 | — | — | 50.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.38% | ÷1.046 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.958 | 3.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.966 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 12.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 8.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.994 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.958 | 10.85% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 85, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .361 → .223; ISO .318 → .200; BABIP .306 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 85 PAwOBA .378 → .281 (−97)K% 31.8% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.76% | ÷0.982 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.59% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.35% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.77% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.978 | 11.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 19.15% | ÷1.034 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 15.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.51% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 6.15% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 100, K 96, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .378 → .281; ISO .284 → .200; BABIP .349 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 114 PAwOBA .301 → .217 (−83)K% 21.9% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.93% | ÷0.979 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.14% | ÷0.988 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.968 | 4.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.948 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 20.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.097 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 4.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.070 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.628 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 2.68% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 226, 1B 90, 2B 119, 3B 114, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .301 → .217; ISO .155 → .086; BABIP .293 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).