Luke Carlin
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 32 | AAALAA | 292 | .230/.340/.311 | 4 | 6 | 45 | — | .194/.270/.256 |
| 2014 | 33 | AAACLE | 218 | .217/.330/.370 | 5 | 0 | 52 | — | .180/.260/.299 |
| 2015 | 34 | AAACHC | 198 | .158/.318/.234 | 0 | 1 | 24 | — | .124/.241/.183 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 24 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 268 | 230 | 59 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 257 | 357 | 326 | 683 | 70 | 311 | 17 | 13 | 316 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 25 | AAA | Portland Beavers | — | 297 | 244 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 393 | 381 | 774 | 115 | 326 | 18 | 16 | 354 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 26 | AAA | Portland Beavers | — | 353 | 300 | 66 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 220 | 326 | 300 | 626 | 80 | 296 | 22 | 13 | 288 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | — | 105 | 94 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 238 | 234 | 472 | 85 | 220 | 32 | 10 | 223 | 37 | -8 | +0 | +4 | +4 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2008 | 27 | AAA | Portland Beavers | — | 111 | 88 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 404 | 432 | 835 | 170 | 322 | 24 | 17 | 373 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 21 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 286 | 167 | 452 | 200 | 14 | 14 | 229 | 41 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +0 | 0.4 | |
| 2009 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 285 | 237 | 76 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 45 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 321 | 431 | 481 | 912 | 160 | 392 | 19 | 16 | 406 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | — | 16 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 438 | 786 | 1.223 | 429 | 429 | 31 | 12 | 517 | 236 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +0 | 1.0 |
| 2010 | 29 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 284 | 244 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 60 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 238 | 336 | 336 | 672 | 98 | 295 | 21 | 12 | 306 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 29 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 31 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 290 | 43 | 334 | 62 | 23 | 26 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 30 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 238 | 188 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 44 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 368 | 335 | 703 | 122 | 250 | 19 | 18 | 325 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 31 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 244 | 206 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 252 | 361 | 345 | 706 | 92 | 274 | 11 | 14 | 323 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 32 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 292 | 244 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 53 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 230 | 340 | 311 | 652 | 82 | 277 | 18 | 14 | 298 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 33 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | — | 218 | 184 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 330 | 370 | 700 | 152 | 250 | 18 | 13 | 315 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 34 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 198 | 158 | 25 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 158 | 318 | 234 | 552 | 76 | 202 | 18 | 16 | 268 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 142 | 126 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 268 | 286 | 553 | 111 | 235 | 30 | 11 | 257 | 60 | -7 | +0 | +4 | +15 | +3 | 1.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 24 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 268 | 243 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 56 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 239 | 305 | 305 | 609 | 66 | 295 | 21 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 25 | AAA MLE | Portland Beavers | — | 297 | 258 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 325 | 318 | 643 | 89 | 298 | 24 | 12 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 26 | AAA MLE | Portland Beavers | — | 353 | 315 | 58 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 184 | 259 | 248 | 507 | 63 | 259 | 28 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 27 | MLB MLE | San Diego Padres | — | 105 | 94 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 238 | 234 | 472 | 85 | 220 | 32 | 10 | 223 | 37 | -8 | +0 | +4 | +4 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2008 | 27 | AAA MLE | Portland Beavers | — | 111 | 94 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 312 | 319 | 631 | 117 | 265 | 32 | 12 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 28 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 21 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 286 | 167 | 452 | 200 | 14 | 14 | 229 | 41 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +0 | 0.4 | |
| 2009 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 285 | 251 | 66 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 71 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 263 | 346 | 378 | 725 | 116 | 340 | 25 | 11 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 29 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Indians | — | 16 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 438 | 786 | 1.223 | 429 | 429 | 31 | 12 | 517 | 236 | +3 | +0 | +1 | +6 | +0 | 1.0 |
| 2010 | 29 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 284 | 256 | 52 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 72 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 203 | 271 | 277 | 549 | 74 | 262 | 25 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 30 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 238 | 204 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 282 | 255 | 537 | 78 | 222 | 24 | 12 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 31 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 244 | 219 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 215 | 286 | 279 | 565 | 64 | 240 | 13 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 32 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 292 | 258 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 71 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 194 | 270 | 256 | 526 | 62 | 243 | 24 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 33 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 218 | 194 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 260 | 299 | 559 | 119 | 210 | 21 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 34 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 198 | 169 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 124 | 241 | 183 | 424 | 59 | 162 | 22 | 11 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 24 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 268 | 243 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 56 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 239 | 305 | 305 | 609 | 66 | 301 | 21 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 24 | AA RAW | Mobile BayBears | — | 268 | 230 | 59 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 257 | 357 | 326 | 683 | 70 | 311 | 17 | 13 | 316 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 25 | AAA MLE | Portland Beavers | — | 297 | 258 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 325 | 318 | 643 | 89 | 301 | 24 | 12 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 25 | AAA RAW | Portland Beavers | — | 297 | 244 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 54 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 266 | 393 | 381 | 774 | 115 | 326 | 18 | 16 | 354 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 26 | AAA MLE | Portland Beavers | — | 353 | 315 | 58 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 184 | 259 | 248 | 507 | 63 | 269 | 28 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 26 | AAA RAW | Portland Beavers | — | 353 | 300 | 66 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 220 | 326 | 300 | 626 | 80 | 296 | 22 | 13 | 288 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 216 | 188 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 69 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 276 | 277 | 552 | 101 | 248 | 32 | 11 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 216 | 182 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 61 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 322 | 330 | 652 | 126 | 271 | 28 | 13 | 300 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 269 | 69 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 74 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 257 | 342 | 364 | 706 | 108 | 335 | 24 | 11 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 306 | 255 | 79 | 17 | 0 | 7 | 48 | 58 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 310 | 421 | 459 | 880 | 149 | 377 | 19 | 16 | 393 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 331 | 298 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 84 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 211 | 281 | 309 | 590 | 97 | 270 | 25 | 8 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 29 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 331 | 281 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 44 | 72 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 228 | 336 | 335 | 671 | 107 | 282 | 22 | 13 | 307 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 30 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 238 | 204 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 282 | 255 | 537 | 78 | 224 | 24 | 12 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 30 | AAA RAW | Columbus Clippers | — | 238 | 188 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 44 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 368 | 335 | 703 | 122 | 250 | 19 | 18 | 325 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 31 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 244 | 219 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 215 | 286 | 279 | 565 | 64 | 241 | 13 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 31 | AAA RAW | Columbus Clippers | — | 244 | 206 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 252 | 361 | 345 | 706 | 92 | 274 | 11 | 14 | 323 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 32 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 292 | 258 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 71 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 194 | 270 | 256 | 526 | 62 | 254 | 24 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 32 | AAA RAW | Salt Lake Bees | — | 292 | 244 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 53 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 230 | 340 | 311 | 652 | 82 | 277 | 18 | 14 | 298 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 33 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 218 | 194 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 260 | 299 | 559 | 119 | 215 | 21 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 33 | AAA RAW | Columbus Clippers | — | 218 | 184 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 330 | 370 | 700 | 152 | 250 | 18 | 13 | 315 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 34 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 198 | 169 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 124 | 241 | 183 | 424 | 59 | 165 | 22 | 11 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 34 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 198 | 158 | 25 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 158 | 318 | 234 | 552 | 76 | 202 | 18 | 16 | 268 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2005 | 24 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 268 | 243 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 56 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 239 | 305 | 305 | 609 | 66 | 295 | 21 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 25 | AAA MLE | Portland Beavers | — | 297 | 258 | 59 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 70 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 229 | 325 | 318 | 643 | 89 | 298 | 24 | 12 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 26 | AAA MLE | Portland Beavers | — | 353 | 318 | 58 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 182 | 259 | 245 | 505 | 63 | 259 | 28 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 216 | 188 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 69 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 276 | 277 | 552 | 101 | 243 | 32 | 11 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 268 | 69 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 34 | 74 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 257 | 342 | 366 | 708 | 108 | 330 | 24 | 11 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 29 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 331 | 299 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 84 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 211 | 281 | 308 | 589 | 97 | 271 | 25 | 8 | 265 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 30 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 238 | 206 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 282 | 252 | 534 | 78 | 222 | 24 | 12 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 31 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 244 | 220 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 286 | 277 | 564 | 64 | 240 | 13 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 32 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 292 | 263 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 71 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 190 | 270 | 251 | 521 | 61 | 243 | 24 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 33 | AAA MLE | Columbus Clippers | — | 218 | 195 | 35 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 260 | 297 | 558 | 118 | 210 | 21 | 9 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 34 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 198 | 170 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 124 | 241 | 182 | 423 | 59 | 162 | 22 | 11 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 142 | 126 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 268 | 286 | 553 | 111 | 235 | 30 | 11 | 257 | 61 | -7 | +0 | +4 | +15 | +3 | 1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 577 | 102 | 14 | 5 | 14 | 69 | 192 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 177 | 271 | 291 | 562 | 114 | 237 | 30 | 11 | 257 | 61 | -31 | +0 | +16 | +70 | +14 | 7.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2961 | 2615 | 529 | 105 | 7 | 32 | 288 | 700 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 202 | 286 | 285 | 571 | 82 | 262 | 24 | 10 | 258 | 61 | -7 | +0 | +4 | +15 | +3 | 1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 574 | 117 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 63 | 154 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 204 | 287 | 287 | 574 | 84 | 264 | 24 | 10 | 258 | 61 | -31 | +0 | +16 | +70 | +14 | 7.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAIowa Cubs · 198 PAwOBA .264 → .204 (−60)K% 17.7% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.68% | ÷1.051 | ×1.290 | — | — | 21.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.16% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.940 | 10.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.53% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.940 | 2.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.38% | ÷1.008 | ×0.900 | ×0.988 | ×0.940 | 9.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.13% | ÷0.984 | ×0.810 | ×0.988 | ×0.940 | 6.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.948 | ×0.810 | ×0.988 | ×0.940 | 0.65% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.916 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .264 → .204; ISO .076 → .061; BABIP .202 → .162. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAColumbus Clippers · 218 PAwOBA .307 → .245 (−63)K% 17.9% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.89% | ÷1.016 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.30% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.940 | 8.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.940 | 0.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.17% | ÷1.034 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 13.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.97% | ÷1.047 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 7.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.028 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.940 | 2.65% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 103, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .307 → .245; ISO .152 → .123; BABIP .250 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAASalt Lake Bees · 292 PAwOBA .291 → .235 (−56)K% 18.2% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.15% | ÷0.964 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.36% | ÷1.016 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.942 | 8.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.942 | 0.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.04% | ÷0.997 | ×0.900 | ×1.050 | ×0.942 | 20.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.19% | ÷0.977 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.942 | 3.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.942 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.09% | ÷0.973 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.942 | 1.58% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .291 → .235; ISO .082 → .065; BABIP .277 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAColumbus Clippers · 244 PAwOBA .315 → .261 (−54)K% 10.7% → 13.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.66% | ÷0.974 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.11% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.952 | 8.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.952 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.67% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | ×1.018 | ×0.952 | 19.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×0.952 | 4.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.101 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×0.952 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.178 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.952 | 1.13% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 100, 2B 100, 3B 120, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .315 → .261; ISO .092 → .073; BABIP .274 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAAColumbus Clippers · 238 PAwOBA .319 → .250 (−69)K% 18.9% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.91% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.07% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 11.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.84% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.88% | ÷1.020 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 17.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 4.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.50% | ÷1.378 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.962 | 2.05% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 92, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .319 → .250; ISO .122 → .087; BABIP .250 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 AAAColumbus Clippers · 284 PAwOBA .300 → .251 (−50)K% 21.1% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.13% | ÷1.007 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.62% | ÷1.004 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 7.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.70% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.37% | ÷1.035 | ×0.930 | ×1.036 | ×0.972 | 21.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×0.972 | 4.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.036 | ×0.972 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.972 | 1.71% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 107, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .300 → .251; ISO .098 → .083; BABIP .295 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 AAAReno Aces · 285 PAwOBA .397 → .321 (−76)K% 19.3% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.30% | ÷1.000 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 11.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.35% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.34% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | ×1.015 | ×0.982 | 25.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×0.982 | 7.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.015 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 2.95% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .397 → .321; ISO .160 → .126; BABIP .392 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 AAAPortland Beavers · 111 PAwOBA .371 → .290 (−81)K% 24.3% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷1.000 | ×1.290 | — | — | 31.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 12.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.80% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 1.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 22.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 3.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 5.07% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .371 → .290; ISO .170 → .131; BABIP .322 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .